LNG Import Facility Infrastructure Options Mangesh Patankar (Head of Business Development Galway Group) 28 th April 2016 www.galwaygroup.com
Agenda Introduction to Galway Group Types of Regas terminals Floating Regas Solutions Case Studies on Floating Regas Solutions Key Takeaways 2
Galway Group has more than 20 years experience in advising clients in the energy sector Galway s Value Proposition 3
Viable LNG Import Terminal Solution is an Important Component of Establishing Credibility with Suppliers Most LNG sourcing strategies aim to establish a competitive environment amongst potential suppliers to obtain; Competitive price, Fair terms and conditions and Security of supply The buyer would want to involve multiple qualified potential suppliers in a process (Request for Proposal or parallel negotiations) to create that competitive environment To attract multiple qualified potential suppliers, buyer must establish its credibility with potential suppliers Credibility and reliability as a buyer Creditworthiness, Offtake reliability, etc. Credibility and reliability of existing gas and LNG infrastructure Credibility and technical viability of gas and LNG infrastructure development plans 4
Infrastructure Should be Acceptable to as Many Suppliers as Possible to Support Sourcing Strategy LNG infrastructure must be acceptable to as many potential suppliers as possible to enable the buyer to create a competitive LNG supply environment Designed, built and operated safely and reliably to accommodate LNG ships Berthing/docking (berth configurations, acceptable metocean conditions) LNG unloading (connectivity & rate) LNG storage (capacity), etc. Compatibility with the LNG shipping fleet Focus on operational reliability to understand risks of disruptions and impact on overall supply & shipping portfolio management (applies to both DES and FOB sales) LNG infrastructure should be based on proven and reliable solutions and technology to support buyer s sourcing strategy 5
LNG Terminals Onshore vs. Floating Onshore Standard LNG Terminals Floating Small Scale LNG Onshore or Floating Vaporizers & Utilities Berth & Mooring System Vaporizers & Utilities Tanks Marine facilities Tanks FSRU* Industry Standard Cost: $0.5 - $1.5+ Billion 3-4 years construction Most suitable for larger, base load service (economics) Require deep water port Require sizeable land area Rapidly growing option Cost: $100-$250+ MM (FSRU) plus $50 - $200+ MM (infrastructure) Construction: 12-30 months Unit costs can be higher depending on throughput Require deep water port Emerging option Cost: $70+ million Construction: 2+ years Onshore or floating (barges) Unit costs highly dependent on throughput May not require deep water port if serviced by small scale ships/barges 6
Understanding the commercial drivers for an FSRU Project is key for a successful terminal development Key Drivers Project Lead Time FSRU Characteristics Significantly shorter in countries where Government permitting process is simple Capital Cost Medium unit capex cost compared to onshore terminal. But with no economies of scale Opex Returns Regas Operations Higher than onshore regas terminals Suboptimal utilisation will affect returns Interrupted cargo delivery profile and lack of onshore storage can deter some customers Shipping Cost Shipping costs will increase with limited storage capacity Storage Limited and not constant unless ships dovetailed 7
Globally, 17 FSRU projects are successfully operating, and 3 under construction Existing and Under-Construction Floating LNG Import Terminals FSRU has been deployed as an option in the countries with Downstream gas demand uncertainty (seasonal or erratic) Brazil, Argentina Countries where solutions have to be achieved in a short time, a bridging solution or a low demand Kuwait, Jordan, Lithuania, Israel etc. Countries with fragmented geography and gas transportation infrastructure constraints Indonesia, Malaysia Countries where lower capital investment is the key constraint 8
With wider acceptance, FSRU s are the forefront infrastructure option among new regasification development projects Planned/Proposed Floating LNG Import Terminals With FSRUs proved as an acceptable solution operating successfully for a decade across the world, new FSRU projects are proposed across all regions: South America Chile, Brazil and Uruguay Middle East UAE, Bahrain etc. Europe Malta, Croatia, and etc. Africa South Africa, Ghana, Senegal, Benin and Egypt Asia Pakistan, Philippines, India, Bangladesh etc 9
and are becoming more acceptable to suppliers but configuration is very important Suppliers are increasingly comfortable with FSRU based import terminal solutions Suppliers will conduct significant technical and operational due diligence, and evaluate on a case-by-case basis (same as for onshore terminal) Focus on LNG ship to FSRU/berth interface (safety and reliability) Suppliers have individual preferences and risk tolerances on both the configuration of the mooring/berthing infrastructure and interface with delivery ship Choice of mooring configuration impacts floating terminal s reliability and availability because of impact of meteorological (wind) and ocean (waves and currents) conditions Availability to regasify LNG and send-out natural gas Availability to berth and unload delivery ship 10
hence, the need for a detailed Feasibility Study before selecting a configuration A Feasibility Study provides an evaluation of the technical and commercial success of a potential project provides a foresight on the expected project development challenges helps in understanding and finalising various project concept options available for development presents a view on the cost effectiveness and potential returns from the project FEED FID EPC Feasibility Study/ Studies 11
There are a number of technical considerations required during the feasibility Study Draft requirements, metocean conditions, shipping channel, sub-sea gas pipeline route feasibility Boil-off gas re-capture and condensation/flare-off etc. BOG Management Site Survey Jetty Design Various jetty designs can be evaluated Factors such as Wobbe Index and compatibility of the R- LNG with existing grid gas and end user burner specification Gas Quality Technical Considerations Pipeline Route and Specification Sub-sea and on shore gas pipeline routes, right of way issues, pipe size and pressure specifications to be evaluated Location of on shore metering station Gas Flow Measurement Depending on the gas demand Profile and type of customer (e.g. assured anchor customer availability) FSRU Size FSRU/LNG Carrier Interface New-build or Conversion Ship-to-ship or across the jetty LNG transfer Preliminary decision between new-build v/s conversion depends on factors including availability and size requirements 12
followed by several commercial considerations What does the demand profile look like, major consumers? Redeployment possibility and salvage LNG Demand Are there other gas suppliers (domestic or LNG) in the region? Upside Options Competitive Landscape TUA, SPA, GSA, TCP etc Identification of Project Agreements Commercial Considerations LNG Procurement LNG Sourcing Options Own or lease FSRU Ownership Options Business Model/ Commercial Structure Merchant/Tolling, Equity participation etc. Preliminary estimates of CAPEX and OPEX CAPEX and OPEX Estimates Project Financing Possible sources/ strategic partner 13
Case Study 1: FSRU s have demonstrated shorter lead time for project construction Construction Time: Onshore vs Offshore Egypt (FSRU) Port Qasim (FSRU) Klaipeda LNG (FSRU) Typical Offshore Regas Typical Onshore Regas New Built FSRU 0 10 20 30 40 50 Months Speculative FSRU Contracted An FSRU, usually, results in a short project development time as compared to an Onshore regasification terminal primarily because: Speculative Investment by FSRU Owners Some of the LNG Ship owners invest in speculative FSRUs making it available on a short notice Shipyards have multiple decades of experience in ship/lngc building and knowledge of construction critical path, making FSRU construction efficient Regulatory permits timeline In most of the cases, because of lesser regulatory involvement in offshore, FSRU permitting process is shorter as compared to an onshore facility Fabrication in a controlled environment The FSRUs are built in a controlled environment (shipyard) with resources at the disposal, which makes the process very efficient and faster as compared to an onshore regasification plant where construction site can prove to be a challenge for resource mobilization 14
Cubic Meter of LNG Case Study 2: Limited storage capacity may deter some consumers from selecting the FSRU option Storage Comparison: Onshore vs Offshore 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 400,000 165,000 135,000 Limited storage is one of the biggest drawbacks of an FSRU that results in: Size limitation on the LNGC which can be unloaded on to an FSRU, and may result in demurrage charges because of unloading delays Alternatively, FSRU has to discharge gas faster than market requirement making gas uneconomical for base load power generation, or Partially loaded LNGC Resulting in lack of expansion possibility, and presents no economics of scale 0 FSRUs before 2012 FSRUs after 2012 Typical Onshore Terminal As the industry matures, FSRU converted from old LNGC is not widely appreciated due to lack of storage capacity Most of the new build FSRU s are currently above 170,000 cm LNG storage 15
Key Takeaways To support competitive procurement strategies, regas configuration should be acceptable to as many potential suppliers as possible Suppliers are increasingly comfortable with delivering to FSRU based LNG terminals, but the choice of configuration is important Hence, detailed technical and commercial feasibility study is key in deciding the suitable configuration Project development risks should be studied as part of the feasibility study so as to know the risk mitigation measures, and be able to fast track FID 16
Thank You. Mangesh Patankar Head of Business Development Asia Pacific Galway Group Asia 8 Temasek Boulevard #22-04, Suntec Tower 3, Singapore 038988 +65 91084421 (mobile) +65 6222 7917 (off) mpatankar@galwaygroup.com