PROCESS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAPs FOR COTTON WHEAT CROPPING SYSTEM IN PUNJAB, PAKISTAN INTERACTION WITH STAKEHOLDERS, CONSTRAINTS AND COPING STRATEGIES MUHAMMAD ASHFAQ, JAVARIA NASIR, ASAD NASEER, TAYYABA HINA, IRFAN AHMAD BAIG, ASIF NAQVI & ASHFAQ AHMAD
Sequence of Presentation Introduction of CW Cropping system Importance of Crops RAPs Development Process Indicators selected for RAPs Interaction with stakeholder for RAPs Constraints/Issues/Problems Coping Strategies
Introduction AgMIP Pakistan is working on Cotton-Wheat (CW) Cropping System. Input, output, socio-economic, and management data were collected from five districts (5 strata) in CW system (165 farmers). Study districts included are Multan, Lodhran, Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar and Rahim Yar Khan. 5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 & 8.5 were used to generate future weather data. Two crop models (DSSAT and APSIM) were used to simulate yield and to assess climate change impact. Economic model (TOA-MD) was used for economic analysis.
Cotton-Wheat cropping system in Pakistan The Cotton-wheat cropping zone is major source of fiber and food in Punjab-Pakistan. It has well developed irrigation system and also receives 110-250 mm annual rainfall. Cotton-wheat zone is comprised of around 12 million hectares. Having more than 1.5 million farm families.
Importance of Crops and Livestock Cotton Wheat Livestock The cotton has share of 1.0 percent in GDP. Pakistan is 4 th largest cotton producer in the world. Contributes 5.1% in value addition. Occupies around 2.9 million hectares with 13.98 million bales of production. Wheat is 1st staple grain food of Pakistan. Contributes 2 percent of GDP. Contributes 9.9 % in value addition. Occupies around 9.2 million hectares with 25.47 million tons of production. Livestock contributes 11.6 percent in overall GDP Contributes 58.6 percent in agriculture value added 8 million families involved in LS raising (SOURCE: Government of Pakistan 2015-16)
RAPs Development Process Step 1: Selection of higher level pathways Step 2: Key indicators identification: these are also affected by higher level SSPs Step 3: RAPs narratives were defined by economic team under the SSP1 and SSP4 Step 4: Key parameters were selected and reviewed by team members Step 5: Direction and magnitude of change in different variables were discussed in RAPs meetings, rationale for rate of change and short narrative were finalized Step 6: RAPs were shared with experts for their feedback Step 7: Feedback from experts and stakeholders in continuous engagement process was incorporated Step 8: Final RAPs were drafted in DevRAP matrix and again shared with experts for further refinement on certain variables
RAPs Development Process (Cont..) RAPs Meeting of all team members (economics team, crop scientist, IT team) was held at UAF RAPs draft formulated by economist and refined within team First RAPs meeting was held on 18 June 2015 with experts It was difficult to get the feedback on both RAPs at the same time in the same meetings, that s why three meetings were held for RAPs development Second RAPs meeting was again held for refinement of indicators on 11 August 2015 A consultative session was held at AARI and RAPs were shared with researchers Third RAPs meeting was held on 8 April 2016.
Identification of Higher Level SSPs Following key indicators were selected from higher level SSPs 4 and 5 Population and human resource Policies and institutions Technology Land use change regulation International trade Land productivity growth Environmental impact of food consumption
Indicators Selected for RAPs 4 & 5 Institutional/ Policy Technology Socio-Economic Bio-physical Geographical Other Input subsidies Improved seed use Input prices Improved cultivar Productivity trends Post harvest losses Farm Mechanization Labor availability Soil Degradation Farm Size Infrastructure Human population growth rate House Hold size Surface water availability Ground water availability/quality Cropping Pattern Land use pattern CPEC Diversification in agriculture Output Prices ICT Use Off-farm income Fertilizer use Fisheries, forestry Agricultural investment Milk and animal sale price Agricultural Trade Agricultural Finance Overall Productivity Pest & Disease Infestation Livestock per household
Stakeholder Engagement for the Refinement of RAPs First RAPs meeting for the cotton-wheat farming system of Punjab was held on 18 June 2015 with experts Second Meeting for RAPs was organized at UAF on 11 Aug. 2015 with researchers Consultative Session was held on 26 Jan, 2016 at AARI, Faisalabad Third meeting for future pathways for cotton-wheat cropping system was held on 8 April, 2016 A multi-disciplinary team of scientists (economist, plant breeders, irrigation specialist, soil scientist, agronomist, progressive farmers and other experts and policy makers) was established
Stakeholder Interactions
Stakeholder Interactions
STC HALL, UAF Future pathways for cotton-wheat cropping system under changing climatic scenarios was held on 8 April 2016
Constraints/issues/problems q q q q It is not just the percentages that matters sometimes small changes resulted in huge impacts, impact of farm mechanization, irrigation availability, quality of irrigation water. The low level of agreement of experts specially on policy variables e.g., price, subsidy, farm size regulation and taxes. Percentage change are hard to capture for puzzling world. It is hard to separate the climate change and pathways because experts have some mindset regarding AgMIP as a project in context of climate change, but RAPs are independent of climate change
Coping Strategies It was difficult to convince some persons on set percentages and directions, the range of percentages can also be used Percentages can also quantified from a qualitative format Large (35-45%) Medium to large (25-35%) Medium (15-25%) Medium to small (5-15%) Small (0-5%) Background of event and relevant information was shared with the participants with invitations Selection of the relevant participants for consultative sessions
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