TOTAL AND URBAN POPULATION BY REGION, 1950-2100 10 billion 9 billion 8 billion 7 billion 6 billion 5 billion 4 billion 3 billion 2 billion 1 billion 0 billion 1950 1965 1980 1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085 2100 AFR Urban EAP Urban ECA Urban LCR Urban MENA Urban OECD Urban SAR Urban WORLD Urban WORLD
Cities are adding two million residents each week Shenzen 30 years ago Shenzen today
Cities are drivers of economic growth WDR2009
GHG emissions per capita (tco 2 e/yr) 16 8 4 2 Lagos SHANGHAI TIANJIN BEIJING Hanoi Chengdu Shenyang Xian Salvador Cairo CHONGQING Fortaleza B.Horizonte Jakarta Bogota Hydearabad Bangalore Ho Chi Minh Khartoum Lahore Recife Lima Chennai Mumbai Karachi Bandung Pune Tehran Alexandria RIO DE JANEIRO $12,275 High Income Guangzhou DALLAS Phoenix HOUSTON Johannesburg 13.7 LOS ANGELES MIAMI TORONTO CHICAGOBOSTON Milan PHILADELPHIA Ankara BANGKOK ATHENS Montreal NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LONDON Algiers Moscow Berlin St. Petersburg Hong Kong Pusan Caracas CAPE TOWN Istanbul Osaka MADRID Jeddah Riyadh Monterrey P.Alegre Medellin Santiago SEOUL BUENOS AIRES Brasilia MEXICO CITY Guadalajara SYDNEY Melbourne Detroit TOKYO SINGAPORE PARIS BARCELONA Atlanta WASHINGTON, DC 550 ppm by 2050 450 ppm by 2050 Kinshasa DELHI SAO PAULO AHMADABAD CALCUTTA 1 1500 3000 6000 12000 24000 48000 GDP per capita ($)
Waste Generation (now & 2025)
Spatial & Urban Form Determine Cities Energy Efficiency Urban form and density significantly impact energy consumption. Source: Adopted from Kick the Habit: A UN Guide to Climate Neutrality
Urban design will impact the low-carbon futures of sustainable cities
Environmental Policies Matter Tracking CO2 emissions over the past forty years, the graph below depicts how some countries have moved in the context of urbanization Urban form, income, consumption and lifestyle patterns all have an effect on CO2 emission levels. Germany, Sweden & S. Africa outperform other countries in the model Carbon dioxide emissions per capita, 1967-2005 (metric tons per person) 25 United States 20 15 10 South Africa Germany Japan Korea, Rep. 5 China Sweden 0 India 15 35 55 75 Urban population (% of total) Bubble size corresponds to total carbon dioxide emissions (kilotons) Brazil Source: World Development Indicators
New Urban Metrics and Tools Infrastructure Sustainability Rating Tool Gross metropolitan product (NCA) Urban GHG emissions inventory Material flows (metabolism of cities) Urban Risk Assessment Eco2 Cities Global City Indicator Facility 10
Infrastructure Sustainability Rating Tool
THE WORLD BANK Eco 2 Cities: Ecological Cities as Economic Cities www.worldbank.org/eco2
Water Mgt Eco2 Integrated Approach Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy: Green Buildings District Heating/Cooling Smart Grid Solar, Geo, Wind, Hydro Waste Mgt Risk Resiliency Regulation, Incentives, Awareness Technology and Investments Finance Viability Social Equity Optimal Urban Form Land Management Transportation Green Transport Mode Clean Energy Efficient Vehicle/Fuel Transport Planning Governance and Leadership 13
Eco2 Cities Concerted Efforts of All the Stakeholders In Reducing Waste, Yokohama, Japan Solid Waste Reduction Implementation of 3R (Reduce, Reuse, Recycle) with citizen's collaboration Achieved 38.7% reduction in six years (2001-2007) and US$1.1 Billion Savings. Waste Reduction in Yokohama Source: City of Yokohama
Eco2 Four Tools GIS to Analyze Form Design Charrette to Forecast & Plan Sankey Diagram to Analyze Flows Life -Time Cost Benefit Analysis for Financing Decision.
The New Urban Agenda - Summary Build Sustainable Cities Emergence of Cities More attention on Urban Form (and Management) Better City metrics Address backlog of basic services Smarter Financing Pick low-hanging fruits first, e.g. efficiency in buildings New financing tools Clear messaging through finance, e.g. tolls, tipping fees Green Bonds New Partnerships New and improved Civil Engineering THE WORLD BANK www.worldbank.org/urban
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