The WIC Food Package: Prices and Store Formats Institute of Medicine Workshop: Methods and Approaches to the Assessment of WIC Food Packages March 1, 015 Percent change in the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) for food at home, 1995 014 7 6 5 4 0 year average:.6% Annemarie Kuhns USDA, Economic Research Service 1 0 1995 1997 1999 001 00 005 007 009 011 01 Percent change in the all items consumer price index (CPI) and food CPI, 1984 014 Percent change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by sub category, 1984 014 7.0 1.0 10.0 6.0 8.0 5.0 4.0.0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1984 1986 1988 1990 199 1994 1996 1998 000 Economy wide Inflation 00 004 006 008 Food Inflation 010 01 014 6.0 4.0.0 0.0 1984 1989 1994 1999 004 009 014.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 Apparel Housing Transportation Food Medical care 10.0 4 1
Energy, 6. Where a food dollar goes Finance & Other,.6 Insurance,.6 Retail trade,.6 Wholesale trade, 1.9 Agribusiness,.6 Transportation, 4.7 Farm production, 14.6 Food processing, 4 Packaging,.1 Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, 01 015 forecasts, by retail food category Other foods Nonalcoholic beverages Cereals and bakery products Sugar and sweets Fresh vegetables Fresh fruits Fats and oils Dairy Poultry Pork Beef and veal 0 1 4 5 6 7 Source: USDA, Economic Research Service. 5 6 WIC food: 015 inflation Peanut Butter Dried Beans Lowfat Milk Canned Fish and Seafood Non white Bread Rice Nonfrozen Juice Bananas Retail inflation, by food category Price Index, 000 =100 0 00 180 160 140 10 Cheese Breakfast Cereal 0 0.5 1 1.5.5.5 4 Source: USDA, Economic Research Service. 100 000 00 004 006 008 010 01 014 Breakfast Cereal Bread Processed Fish and Seafood Milk Frozen Juices Fresh Produce Peanut Butter Dried beans, peas, and lentils 7 8
Average retail food prices, by year Year 008 009 010 011 01 (extra large, per dozen) $1.94 $1.68 $1.75 $1.9 $.0 Annual grocery store inflation by city, 014.5.5 1.5 1 0.5 Skim/Low fat Milk (per gallon) $.5 $.57 $.69 $.0 $.0 0 Anchorage Seattle Las Angeles Houston St. Louis Chicago Detroit Atlanta New York Pittsburgh American Cheese (per ounce) $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 $0.46 $0.9 National Average Annual percent change scale < % to % > % Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using Bureau of Labor Statistics data Source: IRI Consumer Network data, 008 to 01. 9 10 Average retail food prices, by region U.S. Midwest South West January 015 Whole wheat bread, per lb. 1.95 1.9.06 NA White rice, per lb. 0.69 NA 0.7 0.68, per doz..11 1.9.7 NA Whole milk, per gal. 4.05.7 4.05.69 OJ frozen concentrate, 1 oz..7.56.87 NA Bananas, per lb. 0.58 0.54 0.57 0.68 Iceberg lettuce, per lb. 1.17 1.01 1.5 NA Dried beans, per lb. 1.45 NA 1.45 1. Retail food landscape Convenience stores and dollar stores are increasing their food offerings Competitive strategies can differ according to store format Supercenters and club stores have undergone rapid expansions Note: NA = data not available 11 1
Supercenters and club stores 007 011 Dollar Store 5% Supercenter 1% Mass Merchandiser % Club Store 1% Other % Supermarket 14% U.S. Market Share by Format Drug/Convenience 74% Source: USDA, Economic Research Service s Food Environment Atlas 1 Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using Nielsen TDLinx data, 01. 14 Shares of food at home expenditures, by store format, 1999 01 Price for WIC food packages in California higher at smaller stores Share of Total Food Expenditures 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0. 0. 0.1 0 Supermarkets Drug Stores Mass Merchandisers Supercenters Club Stores Convenience Stores Other 1999 000 001 00 00 004 005 006 007 008 009 010 011 01 Source: Nielsen Homescan (1999 009) and IRI Panel (010 01) data. 15 16 4
Average retail food prices, by store format Store format California Store access issues Low access at 1 and 0 miles Texas Traditional Non traditional (extra large, per dozen) $1.9 $1.77 Skim/Low fat Milk (per gallon) $.89 $.94 American Cheese (per ounce) $0.48 $0.4 Source: IRI Consumer Network data, 008 to 01. Source: USDA, Economic Research Service s Food Access Research Atlas 17 18 WIC redemptions per capita, 01 WIC authorized stores, 01 California Texas California Texas Source: USDA, Economic Research Service s Food Environment Atlas Source: USDA, Economic Research Service s Food Environment Atlas 19 0 5
Amber Waves: Presents current ERS economic and policy research on agriculture, food, rural America, and the environment for policymakers, academics and the public. Via web connection or mobile app http://www.ers.usda.gov/amberwaves/ Resources ERS Retail Food Price Forecasts: http://www.ers.usda.gov/data products/foodprice outlook.aspx Food Environment Atlas: http://www.ers.usda.gov/data products/foodenvironment atlas.aspx Food Access Research Atlas: http://www.ers.usda.gov/data products/foodaccess research atlas.aspx 1 Thank You! Contact Information Food Prices and Markets: Annemarie Kuhns amkuhns@ers.usda.gov 0 694 551 OR Contact Information Food Access and Food Environment Atlas: Elizabeth Beaulieu ebeaulieu@ers.usda.gov 0 694 5414 David Levin David.levin@ers.usda.gov 0 694 55 6