International Carbon Flows 14 November 211 Eric Lounsbury LowCVP/IMechE Life-Cycle Seminar
Top regional bilateral flows of emissions embodied in motor vehicles 112Mt CO 2 3 Total Flows (MtCO 2 ) 1 11 7 6 6 112 37% 4% 4% 4% Other Asia to Europe North America to Europe China to Asia % Japan to Asia 4 8 7 2 1 4 4 3 % 6% 6% Asia to North America Japan to Europe China to Europe 6 3 2 7% Europe to North America 9 2 11% China to North America 1 12% Japan to North America 1. Includes scope 1 - Direct emissions generated by OEM, Scope 2 Allocated Electricity and Scope 3 Other emissions associated with auto production Note: Excludes intra regional flows; Includes bilateral flows only (ie, does not include emissions generated upstream in other regions) Source: Carbon Trust Analysis; CICERO / SEI / CMU GTAP7 EEBT Model 2
A consumption perspective materially changes the view of automotive emissions 24% Percentage change in country territorial production emissions to reflect impact of consumption of CO 2 22% 2% 16% 14% 12% % 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% -8% -% France UK Italy USA Spain Germany India Brazil Korea Japan Poland EU Other Annex I Non Annex 1 761Mt CO 2 China South Africa Russia Production emissions 1 MtCO 2 1. Not just emissions arising in the automotive sector, but all those that arise in all sectors to satisfy global automotive consumption Source: Carbon Trust Analysis; CICERO / SEI / CMU GTAP7 MRIO Model 3
Distribution of embodied emissions in a typical car Engine 19% Chassis 4% Note: Emissions embodied in materials only Source: Carbon Trust; BCG Analysis 4
Emissions to satisfy UK automotive consumption Sector in which emissions generated Other Air transport Petroleum, coal products Trade (eg retail) Non ferrous metals (eg, aluminium) Automotive Mineral products (eg, glass) Chemical, rubber, plastics Transport Ferrous Metals Electricity 37Mt CO 2 Europe (ex UK) UK China Region where emissions produced Asia North America Africa Japan Oceania India Russian Federation South America Source: Carbon Trust Analysis; CICERO / SEI / CMU GTAP7 MRIO Model (24)
Case study on flow of Chinese electricity emissions to UK cars 1. Chinese electricity is used to make raw steel in China 2. which is then turned into a metal stamping machine in China 3. and shipped to the UK where it s used in a car final assembly plant 4. to make a car to that is sold to a UK consumer Automotive Iron & Steel Chemicals Electricity 1.9MtCO 2 Metals Metal Products Machinery Automotive UK automotive consumption Minerals Textiles Trade Automotive Automotive Note: Map is not geographically representative Source: Carbon Trust Analysis based on structural path analysis (SPA) of automotive global flows data from CICERO / SEI / CMU 6
Up to 8% of a vehicle's total emissions occur in use phase Majority of emissions from production not from OEM plants, but from supply chain and raw materials Emissions Lifecycle emissions of current global production ~2-3 bn tco2e per year (4-7% of global GHG emissions) Value Chain R&D Raw material Component s Supply Chain Logistics OEM Production Outbound Logistics / Distributio n Marketing / Sales Consumer Usage Recycling / Scrapping 4 t CO 2 e per vehicle Total life cycle emissions for a midsized car range from 24-36 t CO2 ~3 3.3 Emission baseline standard compact car 1 2 ~6t CO2e from production of small to midsized car 2 ~18 24 3. ~3.6 ~2.4 1.2 ~1.4 ~.9 ~. 1.2 ~1.4 ~.9 incl. in supply chain % of total emissions - 8-12% ~4% ~1% ~4% - - 7-8% ~1% 1 Absolute emission data based on Environmental Commendation Volkswagen Golf VI 2. Up to ~t / car embedded and 8t in-use emissions for large premium vehicles (eg. Mercedes S-Class) Source: BCG Analysis based on Life cycle Analysis publications from several OEM (Daimler, Volkswagen, Toyota) 7
The potential evolution in the relative importance of embedded emissions compared with in-use 29 Average car (16g/km) 29 Efficient Diesel car (12g/km) 2 Plug-in Hybrid 1 (78g/km) 21-2 Electric car 2 (4g/km) t CO2 3 Σ ~3 t CO2 t CO2 Σ ~24 t CO2 t CO2 Σ ~21 t CO2 t CO2 Σ ~16 t CO2 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 8% 2 2 2 1 1 constant embedded emissions (6t) 7% increase in embodied emissions (%) from battery & motor 1 7% 1 43% 2% 2% 43% 7% Well-wheel emissions Embodied emissions Note 1: Vehicle assumed to drive 1,km over its lifetime 1. Assumes ICE used % of the time and generates 89gCO 2 /km and electric motor for other %. Emissions of electric motor based upon grid factor of 4g/kWh and motor efficiency of 1kWh/km 2. Emissions of electric motor based upon grid emissions intensity of 3g/kWh and motor efficiency of 1kWh/km Source: Carbon Trust and BCG Analysis based on data from International Energy Agency, Automotive Manufacturers and Ricardo 8
Further information: International Carbon Flows www.carbontrust.co.uk/icf Eric Lounsbury Strategy Manager eric.lounsbury@carbontrust.co.uk www.carbontrust.co.uk The Carbon Trust, 211 All rights reserved Any trademarks, service marks or logos used in this presentation are the property of the Carbon Trust (or its licensors). Nothing in this presentation shall be construed as granting any licence or right to use or reproduce any of the trademarks, service marks, logos, copyright or any propriety information in any way without the Carbon Trust s prior written permission. The Carbon Trust enforces infringements of its intellectual property rights to the full extent permitted by law. 9
Forecasted evolution of in-use emissions in cars Well to wheel emissions by technology Uptake of new technologies under optimistic scenario In-use emissions (g/km) Market share global Sales Consensus for aggressive market uptake Extrapolation of segment growth 22 2 18 9 8 % 6% 2% Electric 16 14 12 8 6 ICE 2 Hybrid 2 Plug-In 3 7 6 4 3 99% 26% 8% 1% Plug-in 4% Hybrid 4 2 Electric 3 2 2% ICE 2 2 2 21 22 22 23 2 2 22 23 1. Extrapolated based on BCG's 22 expectation in the case of an accelerated uptake of new propulsion technologies 2. Assumes phase in of biofuels from.% in 2 to % in 22 to 2% in 23 3. Based on decarbonisation of grid over time Source: BCG Propulsion Model; publically available information