The Role of Materials in Sustainable Mobility

Transcription

1 The Role of Materials in Sustainable Mobility Examining Long-term Vehicular Materials Usage Prof. Randolph Kirchain, Prof. Joel Clark, Dr Frank Field, & Dr. Richard Roth Department of Materials Science & Engineering and Engineering Systems Division Materials in Sustainable Mobility: Slide 1

2 Sustainable Mobility 2030 Sponsor: World Business Council on Sustainable Development Goals Characterize the performance of current mobility Project future sustainability characteristics Recommend goals for improvement Chart possible paths for achievement Output Mobility 2001 Mobility 2030 Materials in Sustainable Mobility: Slide 2

3 Projecting Sustainability Selected Sustainability Indicators Accessibility Expense Travel time and variability Impact on global warming Other environmental impacts Resource use Impact on public revenues/expenditures Prospective rate of return to private firms MIT Team Project materials usage for vehicle production Materials in Sustainable Mobility: Slide 3

4 Why consider MATERIALS in a discussion of SUSTAINABILITY? Materials in Sustainable Mobility: Slide 4

5 How Do Materials Affect the Environment? Unit Effects Direct Manufacturing burden Consumption of energy Emissions to the environment Concentration in the environment Most materials still eventually in up in landfills Toxicity for some materials Indirect Performance of the products into which they are transformed Energy Efficiency Recyclability Materials in Sustainable Mobility: Slide 5

6 Is this really a problem? How much do YOU consume per day? Materials in Sustainable Mobility: Slide 6

7 Is Materials Use a Sustainability Issue? Current Per Capita Consumption Inputs 21 Energy materials 21 Construction 3 Minerals 2 Metals 3 Forestry Products 7 Agriculture 3 Recycled Outputs 19 Air Emissions 21 In use 6 Wastes 2 Dissipated > 50 kg / person / day From: I.K. Wernick, Consuming Materials: The American Way, Tech Forecast & Social Change v53, 1996 Materials in Sustainable Mobility: Slide 7

8 U.S. Consumption Has Skyrocketed From: G. Matos & L. Wagner, Consumption of Materials in the US., Ann Rev En Env,, 1998, v. 23 Materials in Sustainable Mobility: Slide 8

9 Is Materials Use a Sustainability Issue? Consumption Far Exceeds Historic Norms From: G. Matos & L. Wagner, Consumption of Materials in the US., Ann Rev En Env, 1998, v. 23 Materials in Sustainable Mobility: Slide 9

10 Why consider AUTOMOBILES in a discussion of Materials SUSTAINABILITY? Materials in Sustainable Mobility: Slide 10

11 Why Care About the Automobile -- Magnitude There really are a lot of cars out there US in 2000 >220 million light vehicles per capita World ~ 700 million 0.12 per capita 140 Vehicles Veh per cap Source: S.C. Davis and S.W. Diegel, Transportation Energy Data Book, v23, DOE, ORNL-6970, 2003 Materials in Sustainable Mobility: Slide 11

12 Why Care About the Automobile Magnitude of Materials Consumption Autos are significant consumers of resources 3.5 Current Automotive Consumption Aluminum 1400kt Lead 840kt Platinum 850koz Rubber 1800kt Iron 3400kt Steel 11000kt Annual Consumption (M tonnes) Sources: USGS & Keolian, Industrial Ecology of the Automobile Aluminum Copper Iron Lead Plastic Platinum (oz) Rubber Stainless Stl Steel (10 Mt) Zinc Materials in Sustainable Mobility: Slide 12

13 Why Care About the Automobile Magnitude of Materials Consumption Autos are significant consumers of resources Aluminum 19% Lead 70% Platinum 41% Rubber >60% Iron 35% Steel 14% Auto Fractin of Total US Consumption 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Current Automotive Consumption Sources: USGS & Keolian, Industrial Ecology of the Automobile Aluminum Copper Iron Lead Plastic Platinum (oz) Rubber Stainless Stl Steel (10 Mt) Zinc Materials in Sustainable Mobility: Slide 13

14 Why Care About the Automobile? Contribution to Materials Recovery Vehicle reclamation rates > 90% Material recovry rate > 75% In US, currently returns: Steel 13 M tons Nonferrous 0.8 M tons Rubber 1.6 M tons Compare to: Total recycling industry ~ 100 M tons Total MSW ~ 200 M tons Fraction Recovered Recovery for Recycling 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Autos Cans Paper Glass Plastic Tot MSW Materials in Sustainable Mobility: Slide 14

15 Sustainable Mobility 2030 Sponsor: World Business Council on Sustainable Development Goals Characterize the performance of current mobility Project future sustainability characteristics Recommend goals for improvement Chart possible paths for achievement MIT Team Project long-term materials flows for vehicle production Materials in Sustainable Mobility: Slide 15

16 Projecting Future Materials Consumption Analysis was based on Estimation of current vehicle composition Projected vehicle fleet population Impact of changes in market / technology Selected tracked drivers of change Vehicle mix Introduction of light-metals Engine, drive train, wheels, structures Introduction of high-strength steels Catalyst technology improvements Increasingly stringent emissions standards Increasing electrical content Introduction of advanced electrical system Slight pressure for overall light-weighting Materials in Sustainable Mobility: Slide 16

17 Scope of Analysis Materials Considered Ferrous metals Aluminum Other Non-Ferrous (Cu, Pb, Ni, Mg) Platinum Group (Pt & Pd) Plastics & Rubber Glass Vehicles Considered Autos & Light Trucks Gasoline & hybrid Diesel & hybrid CNG/LNG hybrid Fuel cell Large passenger buses Delivery and Class 8 trucks Regions Considered OECD North America OECD Europe OECD Pacific Former Soviet Union Eastern Europe China Other Asia India Middle East Latin America Africa Materials in Sustainable Mobility: Slide 17

18 Projected Vehicle Population Vehicle Fleet In Use (millions) OECD NA OECD Europe OECD Pacific Eastern Europe Former Sov Un Latin America China Other Asia India Middle East Africa Source: Sustainable Mobility project calculations. Materials in Sustainable Mobility: Slide 18

19 Examining Demographic Trends: Increasing Vehicle Size 100% Vehicle Ownership in the US Fraction of Fleet 80% 60% 40% 20% Larger Smaller SUV Van Truck Large Mid Compact Sub 0% Source: S.C. Davis and S.W. Diegel, Transportation Energy Data Book, v23, DOE, ORNL-6970, Materials in Sustainable Mobility: Slide 19

20 Examining Demographic Trends: Increasing Vehicle Size Vehicle Ownership in the US 100% Fraction of Fleet 80% 60% 40% 20% Larger Smaller SUV Van Truck Large Mid Compact Sub 0% Data is scarce for non-oecd locales Projection assumes slow shift in vehicle mix -- increasing avg size for 20 years in non-na markets Materials in Sustainable Mobility: Slide 20

21 Examining Demographic Trends: Adoption of Powertrain Technologies Current OECD NA Current OECD Europe 40% 2% 98% 2% Source: Sustainable Mobility project calculations. 58% Vehicles In Fleet (millions) World Fleet Demographics Fuel Cell (H2) LPG/CNG Diesel Hyb Diesel Gasoline Hyb Gasoline Materials in Sustainable Mobility: Slide 21

22 Examining Vehicle Composition: Technology Drivers Change Mass & Distribution Mass in Vehicle (kgs) OECD North America Rubber Plastics Glass Oth NF Aluminum Ferrous 0 Gas-2000 Gas-2020 Gas Hybrid Gas Hybrid Materials in Sustainable Mobility: Slide 22

23 Examining Vehicle Composition: Technology Drivers Change Mass & Distribution OECD NA OECD EU Mass in Vehicle (kgs) Rubber Plastics Glass Oth NF Aluminum Ferrous 0 Gas-2000 Gas-2020 Gas-2000 Gas-2020 Materials in Sustainable Mobility: Slide 23

24 Projected Global Automotive Materials Consumption Annual Consumption (M tonnes) Rubber Plastics Glass Oth NF Aluminum Ferrous Materials in Sustainable Mobility: Slide 24

25 Projected Global Automotive Materials Consumption 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Rubber Plastics Glass Oth NF Aluminum Ferrous Materials in Sustainable Mobility: Slide 25

26 Putting Consumption Into Perspective: Compared to Current Consumption 160 Annual Consumption (M tonnes) Materials use grows > 3X from current developed world Rubber Plastics Glass Oth NF Aluminum Ferrous Current OECD World 2050 Materials in Sustainable Mobility: Slide 26

27 Putting Consumption Into Perspective: Compared to Current Production & Reserves % 25 World Production Capacity World % Annual Fraction of Known Reserves Annual (M tonnes) Annual (M tonnes) 1.5% 1.0% 5 0.5% 0 0.0% Aluminum Copper Lead Nickel Magnesium PGM Aluminum Copper Lead Nickel Magnesium PGM Materials in Sustainable Mobility: Slide 27

28 Putting Consumption Into Perspective: Compared to Current Production & Reserves % Annual (M tonnes) World Production Capacity World 2050 Annual (M tonnes) Fraction of Known Reserves 2.0% Recycling 1.5% further mitigates 1.0% scarcity concerns % 0 Aluminum Copper Lead Nickel Magnesium PGM 0.0% Aluminum Copper Lead Nickel Magnesium Projected 2050 levels of consumption do not raise scarcity concerns But, there are issues to consider PGM Materials in Sustainable Mobility: Slide 28

29 Issues of Concern: (1) Attendant Effects of Production Energy Consumption Aluminum 185 MJ/kg Copper 100 MJ/kg Steel 40 MJ/kg Polyester 96 MJ/kg Glass 30 MJ/kg CO2 Emissions Primary Aluminum kg/kg Secondary Aluminum 1.0 kg/kg BOF Steel kg/kg Annual Emissions (M tonnes) Production CO 2 Emissions Materials in Sustainable Mobility: Slide 29

30 Issues of Concern: (2) Use Phase CO 2 CO2-Equivalent Emissions (G tonnes/y) Transport-related CO 2 could increase more than 2X Source: Mobility 2030:Meeting the Challenges to Sustainability, WBCSD, Materials in Sustainable Mobility: Slide 30

31 How Can the Materials Community Affect This? Human Behavior Change patterns of consumption Waste less Change the rules Dematerialization Get the same function from less material Materials substitution Apply less harmful materials Waste Mining Reuse, Recycle Find ways to make use of streams currently wasted Materials in Sustainable Mobility: Slide 31