European Arctic Environment and Climate* Background Paper drafted by the Arctic Centre of the University of Lapland for the European Arctic Environment and Climate workshop, a part of the EU-European Arctic Dialogue Seminar, Brussels, 21 November 2017 This background paper is meant to inspire discussion among participants. It constitutes a starting point rather than establishing the boundaries of dialogue within the workshop. The most important elements of the workshops are participants assessment of the situation in the region and their ideas. This paper was drafted by the contractor in the EU Arctic Policy Assessment contract. As such, the ideas presented in this material do not necessarily represent the views of the European Union. Photo by Jenni Lintula/Arctic Centre of the University of Lapland THIS WORKSHOP The discussions on Arctic environment and Arctic climate change often focus on the changes taking place in the Arctic Ocean and on the Circumpolar Arctic climate. This is not surprising considering the intensity of these changes and their importance for global developments. However, Arctic regions are very diverse. The European Arctic has its own set of characteristics and challenges. The EU exerts greater environmental, economic and/or regulatory influence in the Northern Fennoscandia and North Atlantic regions as compared to other parts of the Arctic, and it has close relations with Greenland. This workshop focuses on changes, their drivers, challenges, opportunities and policies that are of relevance for the European Arctic. 1 *The discussion on Arctic climate change in general and on the EU s overall climate mitigation actions will take place during the 2018 Circumpolar Arctic Dialogue Seminar. 1 European Arctic is defined here as comprised of Northern Fennoscandia (covering generally Northern Sparsely Populated Areas regions) and North Atlantic (Greenland, Iceland, Faroe Islands).
Habitats and landscapes of the European Arctic are unique in the European context. The region hosts cultures dependent on the Arctic environment, which is considered to be particularly vulnerable to the cumulative impacts of climate change, industrial and resource development, and long-range pollution. The European Arctic has been warming more quickly than other parts of Europe. This workshop will tackle questions related to climate change impacts and adaptation needs, as well as the environmental impacts of economic developments in the Northern Fennoscandia and North Atlantic regions. Participants will discuss the environmental changes affecting European Arctic biodiversity and its protection, as well as the impacts on human health. Various EU policies such as Natura 2000 and the Water Framework Directive are relevant in this context. Seminar participants may also consider the environmental and economic footprint the EU economy exerts on the European Arctic. Long-range pollution and black carbon as well as relevant policies aimed at mitigation of European footprints are of relevance. The role of international environmental cooperation and the EU s contribution to international forums is of equal importance. EXAMPLES OF QUESTIONS DISCUSSED IN THE WORKSHOP What are the most important climate change impacts in the European Arctic? What is the status of the European Arctic biodiversity? What are the most important drivers of environmental change in different parts of the European Arctic? What are the likely tipping points for the European Arctic environment in the short- and long-term? What are the impacts of environmental changes on human health in the region? Are the current adaptation actions sufficient? What kind of planning, funding or support are needed? What are the appropriate policy responses to environmental challenges? What is the role of the EU in the overall response to environmental changes and the protection of European Arctic biodiversity, habitats and improving the quality of the environment? What is and what could be the EU s contribution to the international environmental cooperation in the European Arctic? What could European policy makers and other actors do to better address the present and expected environmental problems and risks? What opportunities for action that lead to improving environmental governance in the European Arctic are opening or could open in the future? Page 2 of 7
OVERVIEW OF ISSUES Northern wetlands, Arctic coasts and coastal waters, Arctic and North Atlantic islands, Arctic tundra, glaciers and boreal forests are among the European Arctic s most iconic landscapes. Many parts of the region host rich and unique biodiversity and constitute the foundation for indigenous and local cultures and economies. As highlighted in the 2017 EEA report The Arctic environment, [s]imilar to the circumpolar Arctic, the European Arctic is undergoing change that affects living conditions in the region, including thawing permafrost disrupting local infrastructure and affecting reindeer grazing lands; certain fish stocks migrating further north; invasive species outcompeting endemic species; altered breeding and living conditions for migrating species; increased ocean acidification affecting the lower levels of the Arctic food chain; and long-range transport of pollutants, black carbon, radioactivity and herbicides as well as discharge of historical deposition in melting ice/snow, all of which may enter the food chain. Importantly, there is a large diversity among the European Arctic regions as regards the character and scope of environmental changes. Different impacts of climate change and economic developments are being seen in Greenland, the North Atlantic coasts, and in the boreal forests of Northern Fennoscandia. The drivers of environmental changes in the European Arctic are both global and local. Global drivers include climate change, longrange pollution, and global markets (e.g. shaping global prices of Arctic resources). These are underpinned by broader dynamics, such as global population growth and expanding consumption in developing economies, industrial changes, and globalisation. These changes interplay with local developments and local sources of pollution. Within the European Arctic, mining, forestry, infrastructural developments, and even renewable energy investments have impacts on biodiversity and the quality of soils, water and air. While industrial developments appear to have more immediate and visible impacts, climate change is the most prominent long-term factor of transformation in the region. Importantly, as the 2014 Strategic Assessment of Development of the Arctic (SADA) report ascertains, [u]ncertainties regarding various driving mechanisms, evolution and specific impacts of Arctic climate change remain. Arctic sea-ice change has been linked to changes in mid-latitude weather patterns that increase the probability of extreme weather events. However, for the European Arctic, changes in snow cover, increased flooding risk or shifts in seasons are likely to be more significant than the sea ice loss. As the SADA points out, [b]oth the duration and spring/summer extent of snow cover are diminishing. [ ] Over the period 1967 2012, the extent of the northern hemisphere snow cover decreased most in June, by 53%. Models indicate a future where winters will likely have more precipitation in the European Arctic, while summers show only modest increases. [ ] The Arctic could see a shorter period of snow cover, while having more snow during winter. The warming trend also appears to result in increased precipitation in northern Europe. The 2016 Arctic Resilience Report identified a number of regime shifts 2 where a tipping point after which it will be difficult or impossible to return to the present state of the environment may occur in the future. Examples of identified regime shifts particularly relevant for the European Arctic include: 2 Regime shifts are large, persistent changes in the structure and function of social-ecological systems that occur abruptly relative to the temporal dynamics of these systems (Arctic Resilience Report 2016 based on Scheffer et al. 2001; Scheffer and Carpenter 2003). Page 3 of 7
Greenland Ice Sheet collapse (existence of this regime shift at present is disputed); Thermohaline circulation (global movement of ocean water) could change in the North Atlantic affecting global ocean circulation but with significant consequences for the European Arctic (likelihood of this change occurring is contested); Hypoxia (low oxygen regime in water, leading to the transformation of ecosystems and affecting productivity of marine environment); Coastal marine eutrophication (transition from low-nutrient clear water towards nutrient-rich, turbid water, caused (among other factors) by nutrient runoff from land as well as fishing); Peatland transitions (transformation of bogs and peatlands into ecosystems dominated by shrubs and trees); Arctic mobility, particularly of indigenous and remote communities (applies primarily to Greenland, due to sea ice changes affecting hunting, changes in ice and snow roads, as well as limited access to costly local and long-distance modern transport); Tundra shifting to boreal forests (this shift is part of the phenomenon of Arctic greening ); Coniferous to deciduous boreal forests (it is widely believed that the shift is occurring). These changes have already had notable impacts on biodiversity and livelihoods. More profound implications for Arctic economies and societies are expected in the future. Arctic biological diversity faces challenges due to multiple stressors on natural habitats, including human activities, land-use changes, pollution and invasive species. According to the Arctic Council s 2013 Arctic Biodiversity Assessment, human-caused climate change is by far the most serious threat. Northward range expansion of many species is already occurring and further shifts are predicted. The overall reduction of the geographical extent of terrestrial Arctic habitats is expected. Warmer temperatures and more precipitation may result in increased plant growth and expansion of animal populations. However, in the long term these changes might destroy large tracts of unique Arctic ecosystems and biota. European Arctic habitats are affected by: earlier and more variable snow melt, increased frequency of winter thaw-freeze events and ice crust formation, disappearance of perennial snow beds, coastal erosion and flooding of low coasts, and more frequent and severe extreme events. The risk is particularly high for endangered species and for freshwater ecosystems, although the changes are expected to be non-linear. Of global concern are a number of Arctic iconic species, such as the polar bear. In addition to climate change, industrial development, pollution, local disturbances and invasive species already affect the Arctic. It is anticipated that the impacts from these stressors will be even greater in the future. The construction of roads, railroads, pipelines, mine sites, and dams cause fragmentation of the landscapes and habitat losses, with major effects on biodiversity. Habitat fragmentation can affect species distribution and abundance, as well as nature-based livelihoods. Protection of biological diversity constitutes an area where public policies need take into account climate change impacts in the near future. In some places, climate change-driven policy adjustments are already being proposed or implemented. Arctic species today enjoy large areas of habitat that support a range of ecological processes and interactions. Nature conservation policy goals may be hard to achieve in light of climate change, industrial development, pollution, local disturbances and invasive alien species. Page 4 of 7
The expansion of industrial activity in the Arctic may also increase the local sources of pollution, waste, sewage and black carbon. These risks to the environment affect human health as well as food and water security. People (both indigenous and local) in the Arctic have a unique relationship with nature, including the subsistence use of forests (e.g. berry and mushroom picking) and terrestrial and fresh water resources (e.g. hunting and fishing). A significant proportion of the local diet is derived from these traditional sources; thus, when land and water are contaminated, food safety is at risk. Lifestyle changes, combined with climate change, have had an impact on human health and well-being (although Fennoscandia appears to have been less affected than other Arctic regions). Due to changes in climate, flora and fauna, humans in the North could be exposed to new micro-organisms, causing vector-borne infections. Contaminants such as persistent organic pollutants or mercury are also a threat to health. Dietary changes have increased obesity rates, Type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular diseases. Many Arctic communities are also afflicted with domestic violence, substance abuse and high suicide rates. In some of these aspects, the situation in Greenland is particularly challenging when compared to other parts of the European Arctic. These issues, characteristic for the many Arctic regions add to concerns related to climatic and environmental changes. Reduced sea ice, ocean acidification and changes in landscape increase the vulnerability of Arctic inhabitants, especially indigenous peoples and their cultures. Traditional food sources may decline or become less accessible (in the European Arctic, particularly for Inuit hunting culture in Greenland). Changes in ice, snow cover and permafrost will have impacts on the way people interact with their environment. Changing landscapes can disrupt forage availability, migration routes of reindeer, as well as community infrastructure, water supply and connectivity with population centres. Traditional harvesting and other nature-based activities as well as landscapes endowed with cultural and spiritual values are intimately connected with Arctic cultures and identities, both indigenous and local, with implications for well-being. Climate change vulnerability of Arctic communities varies with time and is dependent on complex social, economic and cultural structures and interactions. Climate change adds to already existing pressures and changes. The changing weather patterns and snow conditions, primarily in the Northern Fennoscandia, may affect winter tourism the main economic activity for many local communities and may also complicate reindeer herding due to scarcity of winter pastures, as well as an increased risk of flooding. Climate change is often portrayed as an opportunity for economic and social development, with better conditions for agriculture (depending on location), lower costs of infrastructure maintenance, higher interest in winter tourism and greater economic opportunities for resource exportation along Arctic sea routes. Conversely, the thawing of the permafrost and coastal erosion may adversely impact winter transport and community infrastructure. Local and regional authorities in the European Arctic are taking measures to address climate adaptation in the strategies where both relevant risks and opportunities are considered. Page 5 of 7
POLICY RESPONSES IN THE 2016 JOINT COMMUNICATION 3 : The 2016 Joint Communication identified three priority areas: Climate Change and Safeguarding Arctic Environment; Sustainable Development in and around the Arctic; International Cooperation on Arctic Issues. Research, science and innovation play a key role across the EU s Arctic-relevant policies and actions. Policy responses identified in the 2016 Joint Communication include: In general, continued EU contribution to Arctic climate and environmental research. EU research on climate change in the Arctic will also be supported by EU space programmes and contribution to Arctic observation. The EU has already committed to reducing its total greenhouse gas emissions by 40 % by 2030 and by 80 % by 2050. The EU has also committed itself to spend 20 % of the EU budget on climate-related objectives. The EU should contribute to international efforts to limit emissions of short-lived climate pollutants such as black carbon and methane. The EU should work with regions in the Arctic to draw up appropriate adaptation and mitigation measures that take account of the local circumstances and special nature of the Arctic regions. The EU should continue to support work at international level to prohibit or phase out the use of persistent organic pollutants in the environment between now and 2020. The EU could share experience and best practices on the circular economy with Arctic states. The EU will continue to support regional and sub-regional cooperation, including through its membership of the Barents Euro- Arctic Council, and the Northern Dimension policy. The EU is ready to work with the Arctic states, indigenous peoples and relevant Arctic regional and multilateral fora to share experience, expertise and information on climate change, impacts, adaptation and resilience, with a view to developing an ambitious climate adaptation agenda for the Arctic region. The EU should also work with partners to promote a high level of biodiversity protection with a view to halting the loss of biodiversity and achieving the global biodiversity 2020 targets. 3 European Commission and The High Representative, An integrated European Union policy for the Arctic, Joint Communication, JOIN(2016)21final (27 April 2016). Page 6 of 7
EXAMPLES OF RELEVANT EU POLICIES AND ACTIONS The EU has the most significant influence on Arctic climate change via its transport, energy, trade and climate policies, and particularly in its role in helping to shape a global climate regime (which will be discussed in the Circumpolar Arctic Dialogue Seminar in 2018). A significant portion of the black carbon reaching the Arctic originates from the European continent. Apart from the overall EU climate policy, examples of EU legislation, policies and actions of relevance for the European Arctic environment include: Natura 2000 network of protected areas and the Habitats and Birds Directives (92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC) Directives regulating environmental impact assessment (2011/92/EU) and strategic impact assessment (2001/42/EC) Water Framework Directive Marine Strategy Framework Directive 2013 EU Clear Air Policy Package REACH Regulation 1907/2006/EC (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals) 2008/2011 EU Raw Materials Initiative Circular Economy Package Communication on Ocean Governance Seventh Framework Programme and the Horizon 2020 Programme The EU contribution to, promotion of and implementation of relevant multilateral environmental agreements and actions taking place within the framework of these agreements, including the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants, the Minamata Convention on Mercury, the Convention on Biological Diversity, or Espoo Convention on Environmental Impact Assessment in a Transboundary Context. In 2013, the EU adopted the Climate Adaptation Strategy package. Arctic regions are identified as being particularly vulnerable. Adaptation is to be taken into account across various EU policies: transport, health, migration, cohesion, agriculture, disaster insurance, fisheries, maritime and coastal issues. Initiatives supported by the European Commission serve exchanging information and experience regarding climate change adaptation in Europe. For instance, the EU climate adaptation platform, CLIMATE-Adapt, is intended to support informed decisionmaking at all governance levels and to include a toolset for adaptation planning. The EU adaptation strategy also encourages member states to prepare national adaptation strategies. Swedish and Finnish strategies have been adopted. EU funding programmes have supported the work on regional climate change strategies (e.g. Finnish Lapland). THE BACKGROUND PAPER DRAWS UPON: Arctic Council (2016). Arctic Resilience Report. M. Carson and G. Peterson (eds). Stockholm Environment Institute and Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm. http://www.arctic-council.org/arr. CAFF (Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna)(2013). Arctic Biodiversity Assessment: Report for Policy Makers. CAFF, Akureyri, Iceland. European Environment Agency (lead author: Nikolaj Bock) (2017), The Arctic environment: European perspectives on a changing Arctic EEA Report No 7/2017. Stępień, A., Koivurova, T. and Kankaanpää, P. (2016) The Changing Arctic and the European Union, Leiden - Boston: Brill/Nijhoff; in particular, the chapter Climate Change in the Arctic by M. Strahlendorff et al. YOU MAY CONSULT ALSO: Sandra Cavalieri et al. (2010), EU Arctic Footprint and Policy Assessment Final Report, December 2010, available at http://arcticfootprint.eu/sites/default/files/afpa_final_report.pdf. Stepien, A., Koivurova, T. and Kankaanpää, P. (2014). Strategic Assessment of Development of the Arctic: Assessment Conducted for the European Union, Arctic Centre of the University of Lapland for the European Commission, available at www.arcticinfo.eu/sada. Page 7 of 7