Recent movements on geothermal development in Japan

Recent movements on geothermal development in Japan Kasumi Yasukawa National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST) Contents Contents 0. General knowledge on geothermal energy - A quick review 1. Before the nuclear accident in 2011 - Why there was no geothermal development? 2. Renewed opportunities - Recent movement after 3.11, 2011 3. Technical challenges 2 1

General knowledge on geothermal energy 0. General knowledge on geothermal energy Characteristic of geothermal power generation World geothermal power production Geothermal power production system Cost competitiveness and risks 3 Characteristics of geothermal power generation Safe, stable and reliable renewable energy Safe Environment friendly - Lowest CO2 Emission! Life Cycle CO2 Emission g-(c)/kwh Coal Thermal Oil Thermal LNG Thermal Solar (heat) Solar (PV) OTEC Marin Current Wave Farm Wind Geothermal Nuclear Small Hydro (CRIEPI, 2011) 2

Characteristics of geothermal power generation Safe, stable and reliable renewable energy Safe No hazards -Steam turbine with natural boiler and natural water circulation 大気中の水蒸気 地表水 セハ レーター 生産井 generator 発電機 turbine 蒸気 熱水 還元井 ターヒ ン condenser 冷却 cooling 塔 tower コンテ ンサー 還元井 magma マグマだまり reservoir 貯留層 ( 天然のボイラー ) Characteristics of geothermal power generation Safe, stable and reliable renewable energy Stable and Reliable High Capacity Factor -Not depending on weather: 24 hours a day, 365 days an year operational Domestic Resource -Not depending on international politics Power Source Capacity Factor Solar (PV) approx. 12% Wind approx. 20% Geothermal approx. 70% and all survived on 11 March 2011! Average in Japan 6 3

Characteristics of geothermal power generation All Geothermal Power Plants in Japan Survived M9.0 Earthquake! Onuma GPP 1974.6-9,500kW Sumikawa GPP 1995.3-50,000kW Sapporo Matsukawa GPP 1966.10-23,500kW Mori GPP 1982.11-50,000kW Kakkonda GPP Ⅰ.1978.5-50,000kW Ⅱ.1996. 3-30,000kW Uenotai GPP 1994.3-28,800kW Sendai M9.0 Epicenter Yanaizu- Nishiyama GPP Fukushima Daiichi 1995.5-65,000kW Nuclear PP Tokyo Onikobe GPP 1975.3-12,500kW Osaka Fukuoka Some of them were automatically cut-off from the grid right after the event, but continued power generation. The power line recovered in a few hours or in a few days. Hachijojima GPP 1995.5-3,300kW World geothermal power production 2013 Installed Capacity: 11.6 GW in total cf) 2010: 10,7 GW & 67,2 TWh (Bertani, 2010) <100 MW Installed 100-500 MW Installed >500 MW Installed in one country Iceland: 665 MW Europe: 1.8 GW Germany: 12 MW Austria: 1 MW Russia: 82 MW North America: 3.4 GW USA: 3,363 MW Mexico: 1,014 MW Guatemala: 52 MW El Salvador: 204 MW Nicaragua: 159 MW Costa Rica: 207 MW Latin America: 1.6 GW France: 17 MW Italy: 875 MW Portugal: 29 MW Turky: 167 MW Africa: 0.2 GW Ethiopia: 7 MW Kenya: 204 MW Indonesia: 1,222 MW Australia: 1 MW Japan: 512 MW China: 24 MW Phlippines: 1,904 MW Asia Pacific: 4.5 GW Papua New Guinea: 56 MW New Zealand: 782 MW 2013 Geothermal Installed Capacity (MW), Bertani (2013) 8 4

USA Philippines Indonesia Mexico Italy NZ Iceland Japan El Salvador Kenya Costa Rica Nicaragua World geothermal power production World s geothermal development trend Installed capacity (MW) 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 Major Geothermal-power Countries Data source 1995:Huttrer(2000) 2000:Bertani(2007) 2005:Bertani(2005),Bertani(2010) 2007:Bertani(2007),IEA(2008) 2010:Bertani(2010) 1995 2000 2005 2007 2010 0 World geothermal power production 2010 Geothermal World: history (Bertani, 2010) 14'000 Status in 2010 12'000 10'000 The average geothermal capacity on the entire 526 units in operation is 20.6 MW Installed Cumulative Capacity (MW) 8'000 6'000 4'000 2'000 0 1946 1948 BIG Only 48 units with capacity >55 MW with an average of 79.5 MW. SMALL There are 259 units with capacity < 10 MW with an average capacity of 3.2 MW. 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 Year 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 10 2004 2006 2008 5

Geothermal power production system (surface) Steam power generation (single flash) turbine Ground surface Production well Power generation by steam turbine is the same as thermal or nuclear plants, but no furnace, no reactor. to grid system steam Turbine electricity Cooling tower Steam & water Separator water Injection well Pump Normally geothermal fluid (two phase fluid) with temperature of 200 o C or higher is needed. 11 Geothermal power production system (surface) Binary cycle system Ground surface hot water Production well 2ndary fluid steam Turbine Heat exchange r hot water Pump Injection well electricity Condenser Pump to grid system or domestic use Cooling tower For fluid temperature of around 150 o C, binary cycle system is available. Secondary fluid with low boiling point is heated at heat exchanger. This system is rapidly increasing in low-medium temperature geothermal regions. ORC, using hydrocarbon (ex. iso-pentane) as working fluid, is commonly used. 12 6

Geothermal power production system (surface) Low temperature binary system Hot spring power generation - 温泉発電 For bathing 2ndary fluid steam Turbine Heat exchange r to grid system or domestic use electricity Cooling tower Condenser Ground surface Hot spring well Pump Pump Kalina cycle, using mixture of water and ammonia as secondary fluid, has higher efficiency than ORC around 100 degree o C or lower. Potential is large, but still at least ~85 o C is needed. 13 Soil Geothermal power production system (subsurface) Oil/gas reservoir : a horizontal layer Sedimentary rocks A A Once a reservoir depth is identified, all drillings will be successful. Although a fault may change a reservoir depth, basic structure is same everywhere. homogeneous, isotropic Oil/gas reservoir(sandstone) fault Basement 14 7

Geothermal power production system (subsurface) Geothermal reservoir: fracture network heterogeneous, non-isotropic Hydrothermal convection system along fracture networks Caprock (clay) Geothermal Reservoir Soil Sedimentary rocks 1-3 km Hydrothermal alteration zone Cracks /fractures due to dominant stress directions Basement 15 Heat from a depth Geothermal power production system (subsurface) Geothermal reservoir: fracture network drilling success: very difficult A Fluid flows only in fracture networks. Caprock (clay) Soil Sedimentary rocks 1-3 km Basement 16 8

Geothermal power production system (subsurface) Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS): stimulation by water injection A A Hydro-fracturing and chemical stimulation technology increases well productivity Caprock (clay) 1-3 km 17 Cost competitiveness and risks (US cent kwh) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Biomass Solar Geothermal Hydro Ocean Wind Biomass Solar thermal Geothermal Electricity Range of non renewable electricity cost Heat Range of oil and gas based heating cost Range in recent levelized cost of energy for selected commercially available RE technologies (IPCC 2009, Figure SPM.5) -Geothermal power is cost competitive in long term, but not in initial cost. 9

Cost competitiveness and risks Cost (investment) Risk Explore Develop Generate power Risk and cost (investment) in different stages of a geothermal project - Geothermal power has high initial cost and high initial risk. Cost competitiveness and risks Market Risk Country Risk Technical Risk Market structure Demand in the system Understanding of authorities Laws and incentives National development plan Multiple use Human resources Exploration Resource Risk Operation Multiple risks in a geothermal project - Geothermal power has high initial risk, especially resource risk. 10

Before the nuclear accident in 2011 1. Before the nuclear accident in 2011 Why there was no geothermal development? - Geothermal Power Plants in Japan - Geothermal Potential in Japan - The reasons why there was no new GPP in Japan 21 Country Before the nuclear accident in 2011 Geothermal potential in Japan Number of active volcanoes & geothermal energy potential No. of active volcanoes (Muraoka et al., 2008) Geothermal potential (MW e ) Geothermal Power generation on 2010 (GW e h) USA 160 30,000 16,603 Indonesia 146 27,790 9,600 Japan 119 23,470 3,064 Philippines 47 6,000 10,311 Mexico 39 6,000 7,047 Iceland 33 5,800 4,597 New Zealand 20 3,650 4,055 Italy 13 3,270 5,520 Geothermal potential in this table is an estimated value from heat energy stored at a depth of geological basement or shallower. Japan is the world s 3 rd largest geothermal potential country, but its power generation is merely No. 8 in the world Why? 22 11

(10MW) Before the nuclear accident in 2011 Geothermal Power Plants in Japan 17 geothermal power plants with 19 units (2000-2012) Suginoi 1981-3MW Otake 1967-12.5MW Kuju 1998-0.9MW Uenotai 1994-28.8MW Onuma GPP 1974-9.5MW Sumikawa 1995-50MW Takigami 1996-25MW Mori GPP 1982-25MW Kakkonda GPP Ⅰ.1978-50MW Ⅱ.1996-30MW Hachijojima GPP 1999-3.3MW Matsukawa GPP 1966-23.5MW Onikobe GPP 1975.3-12.5MW Yanaizu-Nishiyama 1995-65MW Yamagawa 1995.3 30MW Ogiri 1996-30MW Kirishima Kokusai Htl 1996-0.1MW Hatchobaru 10MW Ⅰ.1977-55MW Ⅱ.2000-55MW 1 MW Binary 2MW < 1MW 23 Before the nuclear accident in 2011 Geothermal power in Japan 14'000 The world s geothermal power capacity is increasing constantly. But no new GPP in Japan this century. WHY? 12'000 10'000 Installed Cumulative Capacity (MW) 8'000 800 6'000 600 4'000 400 2'000 200 0 0 1946 1948 Geothermal power capacity of the world Bertani (2010) 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 Year 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 24 12

Before the nuclear accident in 2011 The reasons why there was no new GPP in Japan Strong points of geothermal power Stable power & High capacity factor Not depending on weather Low CO2 emission Hydro (11), Geothermal (13), Nuclear (20), Wind (24), PV (38), LNG (474, 599), Oil (738), Coal (943) g-co2/kwh (CRIEPI, 2010) High energy return (generated power/used energy) Hydro (50), Geothermal(31), Nuclear (24), Oil(21), Coal (17) All these strong points are common with nuclear power. Therefore, under the federal policy pushing nuclear power, lows and regulations which limits geothermal development had not been improved. 25 Before the nuclear accident in 2011 The reasons why there was no new GPP in Japan 1. National Parks (no drillings, no researches) 80% of the geothermal energy in Japan exist inside national parks where no exploitation has been allowed. Even scientific survey has been limited. 2. Hot springs Some hot spring owners make strong campaign against geothermal development in afraid of degradation of the springs (amount, quality). 3. Cost Thermal and nuclear power have been considered more cost effective so that GPP has not been attractive for electric power suppliers. How these things have been improved after the nuclear accident in 2011? 26 13

Renewed Opportunities 2. Renewed Opportunities Recent movement after 3.11, 2011 - National Parks - Hot Springs - Costs - New Developments 27 Renewed Opportunities 1. National Parks The cabinet decided to mitigate restrictions on geothermal development in national parks, as a low CO 2 emission energy source (June, 2010). Ministry of Environment (MOE) changed ordinance on national park in 2012. Ordinance of the Ministry of the Environment 1) Special Protection zone and Class 1 Special zone (SP and S1) The development is not admitted but the gravity or MT survey will be admitted, which covers wide area. A deviated well drilling is not admitted. 2) Class 2 and 3 Special zones (S2 and S3) The development is basically not admitted. Only deviated well drilling from outside will be admitted if there is no effect on the surface. (November 2011) The development is basically not admitted but it may be allowed if environmental consideration is well treated. (March 2012) 28 14

Geothermal resource (MW) Geothermal resource (MW) Renewed Opportunities 1. National Parks It has been 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 SP Higher protection S3 Never enter! (Even survey is prohibited) S1 S2 >20 Yen/kWh 15-20 Yen/kWh 10-15 Yen/kWh < 10 Yen/kWh Small scale develop. may be allowed OZ Out 0 Special Protection zones Class 1 Special zones Class 2 Special zones Class 3 Special zones Ordinary Zones Outside parks 29 Renewed Opportunities 1. National Parks Since March 2012 if enough environmental consideration is made, 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 SP Development not allowed, but Surface survey may be allowed S1 Small scale development may be allowed S3 S2 >20 Yen/kWh 15-20 Yen/kWh 10-15 Yen/kWh < 10 Yen/kWh Development allowed OZ Out 500 Higher protection 0 Special Protection zones Class 1 Special zones Class 2 Special zones Class 3 Special zones Ordinary Zones Outside parks 30 15

Renewed Opportunities 2. Hot springs The only social problem that cannot be solved by laws and regulation. But... The Ministry of Environment (MoE) made a new guideline on permission of geothermal drilling in March 2012, to be referred by local (prefecture) government, in order to avoid delay in giving permission. Existing information on relation between Geothermal Reservoir and hot spring No information on their relation Judgment by basic geo-scientific info. Model exists on their relation Judgment based on the Model Monitoring data on their relation Judgment based on Monitoring data May geothermal development affect on shallow hot spring aquifer? yes no Procedure for permission shown in the guideline 31 Renewed Opportunities 3. Cost The Energy Agency of METI supports domestic geothermal businesses by : Financial support 1. Drilling Government s support for geothermal drilling was to be abolished in FY2011. But after the big earthquake, government increased the budget from ~USD 15 to 90 million in FY2012. It covers up to 50 % of exploration well drilling costs. 2. Public Acceptance New budget for PA covers 100 % of PA activities by private sectors. 3. RD&D (EGS, etc.) Feed in Tarif (FIT) FIT law for geothermal power was enacted and price is fixed in 2012. 1. 15 MW or bigger: 27.3 yen/kwh for 15 years 2. Smaller than 15 MW: 42 yen/kwh for 15 years. Geothermal projects get double financial incentives from the government (drilling support and FIT). 32 16

Renewed Opportunities 4. New developments Private sectors (Industries) Japan Geothermal Association (JGA) was established in Dec. 2012. It consists of 49 companies and 3 organizations (dated May 2013), including metal developers, oil and gas developers, power supplier, trading companies, construction companies, turbine makers, plant makers, geothermal consultants, drillings companies, and banks. Kawasaki Heavy Industry, KOBELCO, IHI, etc., began production of 50-100 kw generator for small binary plants. Many local groups (municipal or hotel owners) show interests in such small GPP. Currently 44 or more exploration and/or development projects are run by geothermal developers and local groups (see next page). 33 4. New developments Renewed Opportunities Activity Index Current projects (Explorations, evaluations and installations) 19 prospects over 10MW 7 prospects 1MW-10MW 18 prospects less than 1MW (as of July 2014) Higher number indicates higher subsurface temperature (expected). Preceding projects (began before 2011) TOHGEC group began exploration drilling in 2013 in Hachimantai, aiming at 10 MW GPP. Yuzawa-Chinetsu Co. Ltd. (J-Power, MMC and Mitsubishi Gas) began environmental assessment in Wasabizawa geothermal field, aiming at 42 MW GPP in 2020. Map made by JGA 34 17

4. New developments Present geothermal power stations 12 areas, 14 units 10MW or bigger 3 + 1 units 1MW-10MW 9 units less than 1MW (6 are installed in 2014 and Abo Tunnel was in 2013) as of July 2014 Ongoing projects Some of these small plants have plans to enlarge capacity. Abo Tunnel will have additional 2MW in 2015. Goto-en will have additional 0.05MW by 2015. Renewed Opportunities Takigami 25MW Otake 12.5MW Hatchobaru 55+55+2MW Yamagawa 30MW Activity Index Higher number indicates higher subsurface temperature (expected). Suginoi 3MW Ogiri 30MW Mori 25MW Onuma 9.5MW Sumikawa 50MW Uenotai 28.8MW Shichimi Spring 0.02MW Abo Tunnel 0.003MW Yumura Spring 0.03MW Beppu Spring 0.5MW Goto-en 0.09MW Kuju 0.9MW Hagenoyu 2MW Oguni Matsuya 0.06 MW Kirishima Kokusai Htl 0.1MW Matsukawa 23.5MW Kakkonda 50+30MW Onikobe 12.5MW Yanaizu- Nishiyama 65MW Hachijojima 3.3MW LEGEND 10MW 1 MW < 1MW (map made by JGA) 35 Renewed Opportunities Summary of recent movement in Japan Renewable preference after the nuclear power plant accident in March 2011 pushed Japanese government to support geothermal development. Financial incentives for geothermal developments, drilling support and FIT system are given by METI. New RD&D has begun supported mainly by METI (also by MOE and Reconstruction Agency). MOE released constrains for national parks. MOE made a new guideline on giving geothermal drilling permission to speed-up the process. Industries have moved forward to accelerate domestic geothermal developments. Currently 44 or more exploration and/or development projects are running. 36 18

Contents 3. Technical challenges - Geothermal study by AIST - Drilling success - Exploration technology - Well logging - Sustainable production - Innovative power plants Appendix: Introducing a real geothermal power plant, 37 Technical Challenges Geothermal study by AIST Technologies for the Effective and Sustainable Use of Geothermal Energy National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST) opened Fukushima Renewable Energy Institute (FREA) in April 2014. Geothermal studies by AIST, which used be done by geo-scientific units, would be mainly conducted in FREA. Fukushima Renewable Energy Institute AIST (FREA) Energy Integration Team Renewable Energy Research Center (RERC) Hydrogen Energy Carrier Team Wind Power Team Solar Cell Technology Team Administration offices Geothermal Energy Team (GET) Shallow Geothermal and Hydrogeology Team (SGHT) Collaboration Other organizations Universities Institutes Industries Overseas 38 19

Technical Challenges Geothermal study by AIST Technologies for the Effective and Sustainable Use of Geothermal Energy We will achieve effective development and sustainable management of geothermal reservoirs in harmony with hot spring resources by using our advanced measurement and exploration techniques for geothermal resources development. Measurement, Monitoring and Verification Initial and operation costs of geothermal power generation will be reduced by leveraging reservoir monitoring technologies. Seismic, electric and gravity monitoring and their integration system will be applied to identify each fracture in a reservoir, which may contribute to drilling success, sustainable reservoir control and reduction of environmental impacts. Hot spring monitoring system will also be developed for harmonious use of geothermal energy with hot springs. Software for onsite passive seismic analysis by AIST Passive seismic monitoring at a geothermal field Technical Challenges Geothermal study by AIST Technologies for the Effective and Sustainable Use of Geothermal Energy We will achieve effective development and sustainable management of geothermal reservoirs in harmony with hot spring resources by using our advanced measurement and exploration techniques for geothermal resources development. Geothermal Resource Database and Regional Subsurface Flow Modeling We will provide data and knowledge to the public to help formation of a consensus regarding geothermal development. Regional subsurface flow modeling will also be conducted including both magmaorigin water and groundwater. Such database and modeling contribute to maximize geothermal development in harmony with local environment. Farther more, they will be used as basedata for social acceptance of geothermal developments. Shallow aquifer Interaction? C Hot springs Deep geothermal reservoir Concept of Regional subsurface flow modeling 20

average drilling success rate (%) Technical Challenges Geothermal study by AIST Technologies for the Effective and Sustainable Use of Geothermal Energy We will achieve effective development and sustainable management of geothermal reservoirs in harmony with hot spring resources by using our advanced measurement and exploration techniques for geothermal resources development. Research and Development for EGS Technologies for capacity improvement of geothermal reservoirs and artificial geothermal reservoir development will be developed to expand the geothermal power generation capability area in harmony with the environment both in Japan and abroad. We will study possibility of super-deep EGS using an artificial brittle fracture reservoir system completely surrounded in the ductile zone at a depth where temperature exceeds 500 deg-c, for which physical behavior of the rock is totally unknown, by cooperation with other organizations. Concept of super-deep EGS 41 Technical Challenges Drilling Success Drilling Success Rate is a big issue in geothermal business, especially in early stage of developments. Risk control systems and continuous technology improvement is needed. Exploration technology to decide drilling target is the key. Drilling technology is OK. Success=3MW/well or bigger production in this case (Definition depends on the project.) # of wells drilled Drilling success rate vs. numbers of wells drilled in Kamojang geothermal filed, Indonesia (Sanyal, 2012) 42 21

Technical Challenges Exploration technology Exploration from the ground surface geological, geochemical, geophysical (electro-magnetic, electrical, gravity, seismic) surveys ex) 3D inversion of electromagnetic survey data 3D resistivity model of Ogiri geothermal system, Japan (Uchida et al.) Technical Challenges Well Logging: exploration from wells Wire-line cables inserted into wellbore to measure vertical distribution of physical parameters. Electric, electro-magnetic, temperature, nuclear, sonic logs Investigate density, porosity, permeability, resistivity, etc. -> productive zone (depth) -> reservoir productivity Sonic log source signal receiver receiver http://www.gsct.co.jp/business/wi_sonic.htm Fancy tools by oil industry are available, but interpretation is hard in geothermal fields and Temperature resistance is needed. Basic requirement for geothermal well logging tool is 200 o C but 300 o C or higher is desirable. 22

production rate (kg/s) Technical Challenges Sustainable production Scale problem Mineral components dissolved in geothermal fluid deposit inside wells and pipelines when fluid temperature decreases = scale. Calcium scale may be solved by acid, but no effective solution for Silica scale, which reduces well productivity drastically. Reservoir management Si scale at Hatchobaru area To keep production rate, a proper reservoir management is needed. Geometry of production zone, injection zone and injection rate will be the key. Numerical simulation is essential for reservoir management. Steam production rate year injection rate 45 Technical Challenges Innovative power plants Binary plants recovering heat from other subsurface resources Rotokawa, NZ: Combined cycle flash/binary plant Flash turbine inlet pressure 2550 kpa Steam consumption 5 kg/kwh. Photo: Mighty River Power Wyoming, USA: Binary plant recovering heat from coproduced oilfield water at Rocky Mountain Oilfield Testing Center RMOTC. Johnson and Walker (2010). 23

Technical Challenges Innovative power plants Geothermal and Solar Hybrids Ahuachapán, El Salvador (Handal et al., 2007 ) Effective to cover a shortage of temperature in geothermal energy. Geothermal and biomass hybrids may be another option. Geothermal and Solar Thermal Hybrids Geothermal and Solar PV Hybrid Introducing a real geothermal power plant, 柳津西山地熱発電所 (65,000kW) Yanaizu-Nishiyama Power Plant, Fukushima 蒸気生産設備は 奥会津地熱 ( 株 ) Steam production by Okuaizu Geothermal Co., Ltd. 発電所は東北電力 ( 株 ) Power plant owned by Tohoku Electric Power Co., Inc. 生産井 還元井 48 24

Introducing a real geothermal power plant, 地下からの蒸気生産設備 Steam production facility including wells 坑井 3D モデル 3D well model 生産井 Production well 地質断面モデル Geological model Introducing a real geothermal power plant, 地上の発電設備 Power production facility 発電機 Generator タービン Turbine Central control room 中央制御室 冷却塔 Cooling tower 50 25