Developments in Biotechnology in the U.S. Wheat Sector Shannon Schlecht, Director of Policy U.S. Wheat Associates
Biotech Defined Biotechnologically derived crops also referred to as: Genetically modified organism Genetically enhanced Transgenic, Cisgenisis/Intragenic Using modern biotechnology applications to insert specific DNA segments into a plant, for the purposes of: Agronomic issues limiting crop yield or quality Processing or end product issues (starch, nutritional, Vitamin, Gluten, etc) Advanced Conventional Breeding Marker Assisted Selection & Double Haploid Hybrid
Biotech Crop Adoption Global 2011 12 Crops - Corn - Soybeans - Cotton - Canola - Squash - Papaya - Alfalfa - Sugar beet - Sweet Pepper - Tomato - Poplar - Potato
100 U.S. Biotech Plantings 90 Percentage Planted 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Corn Cotton Soybeans 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source USDA, other estimates
U.S. Acreage Wheat, Corn & Soybeans 38 36 34 Corn Soybean Wheat 32 Million Hectares 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 Source: USDA PS&D
Not Just in the United States 14,000 12,000 Canada - Acreage Rapeseed/Canola Wheat Thousand Hectares 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Source: USDA PS&D Database
The Need for Biotech Wheat - Global World Harvested Area, last 30 years: - World wheat harvested area down 3.8% - World corn harvested area up 46% 240 220 Million Hectares 200 180 160 140 Corn Wheat 120 100 Source: USDA PS&D
The Need for Biotech Wheat: U.S. & World Yield Statistics 12 10 8 US Corn World Corn US Wheat World Wheat MT per Hectare 6 4 2 0 Source: USDA PS&D
The Need for Biotech Wheat U.S. National Average Net Return per Hectare $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $/hectare $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $1,198 - corn $816 - soybeans Corn Soybeans $400 Wheat $200 $- $351 - wheat Source: USDA/ERS - Agricultural Baseline Projections February 2012
Competition!
U.S. Industry Cooperation Wheat Summits Broad industry representation Growers, millers, bakers, life science companies, academics, handlers, etc Communication / Education Create a place for open dialogue and to provide information
Principles of Commercialization Informative Dialogue education & outreach activities Regulatory approvals 5% of normal export volume Tolerances in place for non-gm commercial shipments Availability of accurate and timely trait detection test Stewardship of technology, education & outreach to growers Support a certified seed model for value capture
Trilateral Statement - Canada & Australia Supply the world with wheat Disease, insects, nutrients, water, drought, frost, nutritional aspects for healthy products Wheat acreage declining switching to other crops Wheat yields are slower deeper hole with every year that passes Proven technique to deliver traits w/ strict regulatory scrutiny & over 10 yrs of records Expand and attract new scientists and research to wheat
Timeline of Updates - 2008 and 2009 USW/NAWG meet with six private biotech companies Syngenta acquires two wheat seed companies Bayer partnership with CSIRO in Australia Monsanto acquires wheat breeding & seed company Bayer acquires biotech firm
Timeline of Updates - 2010 Syngenta enters hybrid wheat business Syngenta & CIMMYT announce public/private partnership Limagrain Cereal Seeds (LCS) starts N. American breeding & seed program Vilmorin acquires position in Arcadia, Arcadia acquires position in LCS Monsanto & Kansas State agreement BASF & Monsanto expand research collaboration
Timeline of Updates 2010 (cont.) Monsanto and Intergrain collaboration and acquisition Monsanto & Virginia Tech agreement Bayer CropScience and Evogene collaborative Bayer CropScience and University of Nebraska Lincoln agreement Bayer CropScience acquires two breeding companies in the Ukraine
Timeline of Updates 2011 KWS acquires germplasm of two U.S. companies and creates KWS Cereals USA, LLC Bayer CropScience agreement with RAGT Semences in France DowAgroSciences acquries Northwest Plant Breeding and expands Hyland Seeds to PNW DowAgroSciences enters agreement with HRZ Wheats in Australia Bayer CropScience agreement with South Dakota State
Timeline of Updates 2012 Limagrain Cereal Seeds and University of Idaho form Public Private Partnership More to come
USDA U.S. Field Trial Process Permits and Notifications APHIS EPA FDA Stewardship Time and Cost 13.1 years and $136 million Discovery, development, seed, crop production & discontinuation
Biotechnology Research: U.S. Crops No Commercial Wheat Plantings Allowed Trials since 1987 Source: Virginia Polytechnic and State University Wheat Research Drought, Salinity, Frost, Heat, Nitrogen Use, Disease, Insect, Starch, Pesticide, Fiber, Folic, Celiac
Field Trials United States and Global Many traits of interest Abiotic Stresses Drought, Heat, Frost, Cold, Nitrogen Utilization Efficiency Diseases and Insects Fusarium Head Blight Starch and endosperm characteristics Herbicide tolerance 2009 & 2010 6 trials each year in U.S. 2011-12 trials notified Drought, salinity, starch composition, heat, herbicide, etc 2012-23 potential trials notified
Choice Consumer choice IFIC Survey 2012 of U.S. Consumers 70% buy if more sustainable 80% of U.S. food products biotech ingredient Labeling Producer choice 76% of U.S. growers NAWG survey Tolerance levels Segregation systems
Market Choice Consumer Choice Market Thresholds At very low % biotech, avoidance costs are prohibitive Cost At lower % biotech, avoidance costs rise exponentially At higher % biotech, avoidance has minimal cost impact Biotech Threshold (%) Source: International Grain Trade Coalition (IGTC)
Biotech Benefits - Sustainability Innovation to Produce More & Conserve More Wheat behind other crops per unit of output Field to Market January 2009 Comparison of 1987 to 2007 Land Use Corn reduced 37% vs 17% in wheat Energy Use Soybeans reduced 65% vs 9% for wheat Green House Gas Soybeans 38% lower, whereas wheat is 15% higher Pesticide Use (PG Economics) Reduced 437 million kgs of active ingredient
Safety of Biotech Food Safety reviewed by multiple agencies around the world A Decade of EU-Funded GMO Research 130 projects over 25 years involving over 500 research groups - biotechnology, and in particular GMOs, are not per se more risky than conventional plant breeding technologies. Over 200 peer reviewed publications Composition, allergenicity, toxicology, nutrition
Where Do We Go From Here Likely 10 years to commercialization Advanced conventional breeding gains sooner Biotech wheat has to work both for the buyer and for the seller There must be mutual benefit There must be choice and tolerances Working together, we can make it happen We can achieve choice and mutual benefit, assure sustainable supplies of high quality wheat Much more dialogue ahead...
Future - World Population, Wheat Acreage & Wheat Consumption Million Metric Tons & Million Hectares 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 900+ MMT Demand? Acreage Demand Population 0 0 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 Year Source USDA PS&D and UN Population Database 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Population (billions)
Future???? 1996 2005 2020 2050