EEA TERM EIONET Meeting 12 th September Duncan Kay

EEA TERM 2011 EIONET Meeting 12 th September 2011 Duncan Kay

Contents Chapter 2: Defining the TERM Core Set of Indicators (CSIs) Chapter 3: Passenger and freight transport demand and modal split Chapter 4: Optimising transport demand Chapter 5: Obtaining a more sustainable modal split Chapter 6: Using the best technology available

Chapter 2: TERM Core set of indicators (CSIs) TERM Core Set of Indicators TERM 01 - Transport final energy consumption by mode TERM 02 - Transport emissions of greenhouse gases TERM 03 - Transport emissions of air pollutants TERM 04 - Exceedances of air quality objectives due to traffic TERM 05 - Exposure to and annoyance by traffic noise TERM 12a/b - Passenger transport volume and modal split TERM 13a/b - Freight transport volume and modal split TERM 20 - Real change in transport prices by mode TERM 21 - Fuel prices and taxes TERM 27 - Energy efficiency and specific CO2 emissions TERM 31 - Uptake of cleaner and alternative fuels TERM 34 - Proportion of vehicle fleet meeting certain emission standards

Total GHG emissions (Million Tonnes) Chapter 2: TERM Core set of indicators (CSIs) TERM 02: Transport emissions of greenhouse gases EU-27 emissions of GHG emissions Current baseline year/date: 2009 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Transport (including international aviation) 2030 transport target (20% reduction on 2008) 2050 transport target (60% reduction on 1990) 2050 maritime target (40% reduction on 2005) International maritime transport Related targets and monitoring: Transport GHG emissions to be reduced by 20 % from 2008 levels by 2030, and at least 60 % from 1990 levels by 2050; maritime bunker emissions reduced by 40 % on 2005 levels by 2050. (EC, 2011). Monitored annually in TERM 02. Key messages: In 2009, Transport (including international maritime) contributed 24 % to GHG emissions from all sectors in the EU-27. Transport GHG emissions excluding international maritime, as defined in the White Paper, were also +27 % above 1990 levels. This is the starting point for the baseline, and its progression will be monitored against the 60 % reduction target. It means that transport emissions will need to be reduced 87 % from 2009 to meet the 2050 target. The decline in GHG emissions from road transport over the past two years can be mainly explained by a decline in freight transport demand related to the economic recession and higher fuel prices. Further information: Baseline (Section 2.3); Optimising transport demand (Chapter 4); Obtaining a more sustainable modal split (Chapter 5); Using the best technology available (Chapter 6) and Chapter 7.

Proposed future reporting of TERM-CSIs TERM X: Title Key graph title: Current baseline year/date: 2010 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 x y z Target Related targets and monitoring: An overview of current targets and related monitoring will be provided. Percentage change from baseline/trend: 2010 baseline data may become available over the next couple of years. Therefore the percentage change from the previous year will be included, followed by the percentage change from the baseline when is becomes available. The data trend will be clearly indicated. Distance to target: Where relevant, how much progress needs to be made in order to achieve the target. Further information: Relevant chapters of the TERM Report where further information can be found.

Total GHG emissions, Million Tonnes) TERM02: Transport emissions of greenhouse gases 1200 1000 2030 transport target (20% reduction on 2008) 800 600 400 2050 transport target (60% reduction on 1990) 200 2050 maritime target (40% reduction on 2005) 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Transport (including international aviation) International maritime transport

Billion tonne km TERM 13a/b: Freight transport volume & modal split 4500 2005-2009 decline: 4000 3500 2.5 2.6 2.5 Air: -4 % Maritime: -9 % Inland Waterways: -14 % 3000 2.0 1314 1461 1336 Rail: -13 % Road: -6 % 2500 2000 1146 122 134 404 139 414 120 362 Total: -8 % 2009 modal share: 1500 386 Air: 0.1 % 1000 500 1289 1519 1794 1691 Maritime: 38 % Inland Waterways: 3 % Rail: 10 % 0 Road: 48 % 1995 2000 2005 2009 Air Maritime Inland Waterways Rail Road

Freight transport road / rail modal split

Freight transport demand and GDP

Passenger transport modal split 90.0% 85.0% 80.0% 75.0% 70.0% 65.0% 60.0% Car Modal Share 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Bus & Coach Modal Share 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% EU27 EU15 EU12 Tram Modal Share 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 EU27 EU15 EU12 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% EU27 EU15 EU12 Rail Modal Share 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 EU27 EU15 EU12

Passenger transport demand and GDP

Optimising Transport Demand White Paper states: curbing mobility is not an option. Need to provide alternatives which reduce demand but are also more attractive than the status quo. Demand reduction and modal shift will be essential to meet White Paper greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets Peak car phenomenon starting to be seen in some countries: Denmark; France; Spain; UK; Switzerland

Distance travelled per person per annum (km) Optimising Transport Demand 14,000 Personal car use per capita per annum 12,000 10,000 8,000 France United Kingdom EU15 EU27 EEA32 EU12 6,000 4,000 2,000 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Optimising Transport Demand Congestion, rising fuel prices, policies to restrain car use Younger generations shifting away from car ownership Information communications technology replacing travel: Teleworking, Video-conferencing Potential shift to mobility services reducing demand: Car clubs - 1½-5½ million members in Europe in 2015 Integrated transport solutions using smart cards New business models for new technologies Betterplace etc. Road pricing potential: 15 % reduction in distances 10 % reduction in CO 2 58 % reduction in congestion

Obtaining a more sustainable modal split Freight White paper target 30 % of road freight over 300km should shift to other modes such as rail or waterborne transport by 2030 and more than 50 % by 2050 Ambitious modal shift is needed could require a doubling or trebling of current rail freight tkm Short distance freight expected to continue to be road dominated Longer distance, potential for modal shift to rail: 5 % for short distance 40 % for 150-500 km 100 % for 500 km + Some potential for shift to major maritime routes Limited potential in land-locked EU-12 member states

Obtaining a more sustainable modal split Freight Key barriers for rail interoperability and national fragmentation Shift to short sea shipping Actions to reduce administrative barriers Motorways of the Sea programme improve economic viability on key routes Revised Eurovignette Directive allows higher charging of heavy duty vehicles for the external costs of air pollution, noise and congestion Charging variable infrastructure costs and external costs could: decrease road freight (tkm) by 7 % increase rail freight (tkm) by up to 10 %

Obtaining a more sustainable modal split Passenger White Paper target: By 2050 the majority of mediumdistance passenger transport should go by rail. Saturated car use could allow rail to take up additional demand High speed rail network length to increase 40 % by 2017 High speed rail journeys below 4 hours can win 70 % + share White Paper target: Halve the use of conventionallyfuelled cars in urban transport by 2030; phase them out in cities by 2050 Increased role for cycling 31 % modal share in Netherlands Cycling increasing in cities e.g. Seville, Barcelona, London, Paris Public bike hire schemes

Average lifecycle GHG intensity of transport fuels, tco 2 e/tj Using the best technology available 20 90 Energy Consumption, TJ Millions 18 16 14 88 86 84 Despite technology, GHG emissions have risen 29 % since 1990 and air pollution exceeds limits 12 10 82 80 Demand outstripping technology reductions 8 78 6 4 76 74 Real-world performance worse than test cycle results (new test cycle under 2 72 development) 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Road Gasoline Biogasoline Road Diesel Biodiesel Natural Gas LPG Rail Electricity Rail Gas/Diesel Oil Aviation Gasoline Aviation Kerosene Ship Diesel/Gas Oil Ship Residual Fuel Oil Transport Energy GHG Intensity 70 All modeled future scenarios show increased transport demand

Using the best technology available: biofuels Drivers: Fuel Quality Directive - fuel suppliers to reduce emissions by between 6-10 % by 2020 (relative to 2010 fossil fuels). Renewable Energy Directive - all Member States have to reach a 10 % share of renewable energy in transport by 2020 White paper targets: Low carbon sustainable fuels in aviation to reach 40 % by 2050; also by 2050 reduce emissions from maritime bunker fuels by 40 % (if feasible 50 %) compared to 2005 levels Risks: Indirect land-use change not included in sustainability criteria / GHG assessment in Renewable Energy Directive Competing uses for biomass / land resource

Using the best technology available: electricity Drivers: Electrification of road transport - ~60 % lower carbon Noise and air quality benefits Roadmap for a Low-Carbon Economy by 2050: reduce GHG emissions from the power sector by at least 93 % from 1990 Risks: Rate of market penetration / battery costs Range Taxation revenue

Using the best technology available

Percentage of total car stock in the EEA32 TERM 34: Proportion of vehicle stock by alternative fuel type 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% Total Alternative Fuel LPG Shows growth in alternatively fuelled cars Total just over 5 % of car stock LPG accounts for over 80 % of the total Electric vehicles account for only 0.02 % 1% Other Alternative Fuel Natural Gas Electric 0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

AEA AEA Group, 6 New St Square, London, EC4A 3BF W: www.aeat.com Contact: Duncan Kay Email: duncan.kay@aeat.co.uk Phone: +44(0)870 190 6357 Mobile: +44(0)7968 707883 Copyright AEA Technology plc This presentation is submitted by AEA. It may not be used for any other purposes, reproduced in whole or in part, nor passed to any organisation or person without the specific permission in writing of the Commercial Manager, AEA Technology plc.