Critical Components of Last Mile Transportation Gregg Healy Colliers International
Speaker Gregory Healy Executive Managing Director, Supply Chain and Logistics Colliers International
EVOLVING DISTRIBUTION MODELS US SUPPLIERS SHOPS MAINLY DOMESTIC SUPPLIERS RETAIL DISTRIBUTION CENTERS SHOPS
THE RISE OF IMPORTED PRODUCTS & E-COMMERCE OVERSEAS SUPPLIERS RETAIL IMPORT CENTER RETAIL DISTRIBUTION CENTER SHOPS DOMESTIC SUPPLIER E-FULFILLMENT CENTER SORTATION CENTER PARCEL HUB PARCEL DELIVERY CENTER LOGISTICS DEPOT (URBAN LOGISTICS)
UNITED STATES INDUSTRIAL OVERVIEW Amazon Top Industrial Occupier Post Recession Amazon in the top occupier in the U.S. post-recession. Amazon s Prime Now Hubs are a boon to urban warehousing in the U.S. Amazon has plans to add another 37.8 MSF by end of 2018. Retailers/Wholesales/3PL s forced to modernize its supply chain to keep up. Facility type # of Facilities Square Feet Fulfillment Center and Redistribution Centers 122 91,360,406 Regional Distribution Centers 46 15,815,798 Delivery Stations 69 5,849,291 Pantry/Fresh Food DC s (including Whole Foods) 32 4,604,653 Prime New Hubs 53 1,809,741 Total 322 119,439,889
THE LAST MILE IS ALL ABOUT GREATER EFFICIENCY Customer Expectations Better Faster Cheaper
THE LAST MILE: RETAIL Investing in Prime Now facilities smaller and in urban areas Forcing other e-tailers to keep up or lose market share New creative ways to reduce last mile costs through flex, return partnerships & slower shipping options
E-COMMERCE IS STILL IN ITS INFANCY PERCENTAGE OF E-COMMERCE SALES 70% MARKET PENETRATION IN THE UNITED STATES
BUT MORE E-COMMERCE IS COMING! REVENUE IN MILLION U.S. DOLLARS 360,327 409,208 461,582 513,522 561,549 603,389 638,051 55% EXPECTED GROWTH OVER INCREASE IN THE NEXT 4 YEARS! 2016 2017 2018* 2019* 2020* 2021* 2022*
SUPPLY CHAIN COMPLEXITIES 2.1 B SF+ BIG BOX DISTRIBUTION SPACE ACROSS THE U.S. THAT S 390+ GIGAFACTORIES! LESS VACANT SPACE ON THE MARKET NOW THAN IN 2007, EVEN WITH A 47% INVENTORY GROWTH ADDED TO THE MARKET 450 M SF+ SINCE MID-2012 ECOMMERCE GROWTH 26%SALES FROM Q2 2007 - Q2 2017 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, CoStar, Colliers Research BIG BOX = WAREHOUSE & DISTRIBUTION FACILITIES 200K+ WITH 28 + CLEAR HEIGHT
ARE WE PREPARED FOR THIS GROWTH? Is Our Infrastructure Prepared For This Growth? What Are The New Considerations for Industrial Real Estate?
ARE WE READY? Infrastructure + Infrastructure Real Estate Product Real Estate Product
SPARK REPORT Last year, I was a contributing author of Colliers Canada Spark report regarding the last mile and its effect on city planning, infrastructure and commerce in Canada. In the report the Colliers team looked to draw a correlation between the impact number of highway infrastructure on supply chain logistics and industrial real estate.
DRIVE TO BECOME MORE EFFICIENT Other, 1.20% Supplies, 2.70% Rent, 4.30% Customer Service, 7.80% Administration, 2.20% Having an optimized network strategy is the most effective way of lowering external logistics costs Labor, 9.50% Inventory Carrying, 21.80% Transportation, 50.30% 50% of Supply Chain Costs are in Transportation Network Optimization Supply Chain Cost Breakdown Source: Hoffstra University
VACANCY RATES FOR INDUSTRIAL SPACE Lower vacancies ½ mile from highways Higher rents closer to highways Still lower vacancies if close to highway interchanges
RESEARCH SHOWS A CORRELATION 8.8% 8.6% China to spend $8.5B of its GDP on infrastructure 5.2% 4.7% 4.7% 4.6% 4.5% 4.0% 3.6% 3.5% 3.1% U.S. to spend $2.4B of its GDP on infrastructure 2.7% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% China Qatar India South Africa Australia Saudi Arabia Russia Japan Turkey Canada Indonesia Mexico Brazil Italy United States United Kingdom France Germany New Beijing Airport Opens 2019 One Belt Road Silk Road Shanghai Maglev
EFFICIENT INFRASTRUCTURE DRIVES THE ECONOMY 1. Countries with efficient logistics systems experience a 1% increase in GDP growth, and 2% increase in trade 2. Investing in infrastructure is the best way to increase trade, safety and quality of life
HIGHWAYS LOS ANGELES
HIGHWAYS NEW YORK
INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING AND NEEDS GAP THROUGH 2020 Total 2749 Surface Transportation 1723 Water/Wastewater 126 Electricity 736 Airports 134 Ports and Inland Waterways 30 INVESTMENT IN BILLION U.S. DOLLARS 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Expected Funding Total Needs
Crumbling Bridges $3.9T Loss Roadwork Heavy Traffic Crumbling Across the Country... $3.9T Loss in GDP in GDP Crowded Airports Highway Erosion
CITIES INCREASE DENSITY, TRAFFIC SNARLS THE LAST MILE Forces E-Commerce facilities to sometimes maintain 2 or more warehouse facilities because of traffic Traffic patterns help to determine location - not just distance
GREATER LA MARKET Major Industrial Markets located along freeways
Los Angeles Mid Counties Market GREATER LA MARKET Major Industrial Markets located along freeways
0-30 Minutes 6,731,000 Population 30-60 Minutes 7,862,415 Population 90-120 Minutes 3,573,455 Population TOTAL POPULATION SPEED TO 30 120 Min MARKET 21,319,924 60-90 Minutes 3,153,054 Population
BIFURCATED MODEL BIGGER AND SMALLER WAREHOUSES BIGGER SMALLER
WHAT IS YOUR MOST PREFERRED TYPE OF DELIVERY? 2017 Results Log On: www.menti.com Access Code: 865511 Home Third Party Collection Facility Office In-Store
HOW MUCH ARE CONSUMERS WILLING TO PAY FOR SHIPPING? 2017 Results Log On: www.menti.com Access Code: 734906 Free Up to $5 Up to $10 Up to $25 < $50
HOW FAST FOR FREE SHIPPING? 2017 Results Log On: www.menti.com Access Code: 592252 Next Day Three Days One Week Two Weeks < Two Weeks
WHAT IS IMPORTANT FOR LAST MILE RETAILERS Reducing Costs/Improving margin Level of importance on a scale from 1 (the lowest) to 5 (the highest level of importance) Greater control over delivery consumer experience Improving access to clear order, consumer and carrier data for intransit shipments across service, operations and logistics teams Proactive action on in-transit issues Segmenting delivery options based on consumer profile Reducing inbound call volume to consumer service and/or shipment inquiries to logistics team 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5
COST OF DELIVERY This statistic gives a comparison of parcel delivery costs in developed and dense cities in 2017, broken down by type and time of the day. The labor costs of delivering a parcel during the night amounts to 2.6 U.S. dollars per cubic meter, 40 percent less than the labor costs of delivering a parcel during the day. DAY DELIVERY NIGHT DELIVERY 4.5 4.5 4 4 3.5 3.5 3 3 2.5 2.5 2 4.25 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1.25 0.75 0.25 Labor Energy Fixed Cost Other 1.5 1 0.5 0 2.6 1.4 0.75 0.25 Labor Energy Fixed Cost Other
WHAT IS THE PRIVATE SECTOR DOING TO WORK AROUND THESE ISSUES? PRIVATE RAIL COMPANY BUSES DRONE DELIVERY GETTING FASTER
DENSITY OF FACILITIES Height is critical, not just 32, but multistory
DENSITY OF BUILDINGS New Footprint E-Commerce facilities requiring up to 3 times Greater quantity the density of of SKUs traditional warehouses Traditional Footprint More expensive urban locations WAREHOUSE WAREHOUSE
HEIGHT OF BUILDINGS New Seattle Prologis 3 Story Warehouse New Bronx 3 Story Warehouse
Clearly higher is the trend as the cost of real estate in urban cores is so much more expensive WHAT ABOUT BUILDINGS? More dock doors designed for smaller delivery trucks 24 hour access - security features Less depth, faster turns, More associate parking Flexible - Incorporate areas for returns & will call/lockers
HOW TO MANAGE THE COST? Shorter distances between warehouse & customers Reduction in delivery time (man hours) Smaller/lighter boxes when shipping Utilizing existing distribution networks (gig)
SOLUTION: KAIZEN SOLUTION! Better system logic, (similar to concept of WMS systems), UPS right turns only Fuel efficient delivery vehicles Tesla, Nikola, Thor trucks, drones Make it while you drive to customers
LAST MILE TRANSPORTATION CHECK LIST What are the reverse traffic patterns in the region? What is the general accessibility to major arterial roads? What industrial locations are close to my suppliers (inbound)? What industrial locations are close to my customers (outbound)? What are the peak hour congestion levels? What are the off-peak hour congestion levels? What are the local fuel costs? Where are my competitors located within the region? CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD
LAST MILE TRANSPORTATION CHECK LIST What industrial locations are close to trucking companies? Where are the large courier delivery services companies located? Where are the current or future under construction roadway projects located? Proximity of potential sites to the available industrial labor pool? Proximity of potential sites to the rail hubs? Proximity of potential sites to major airports? Proximity and type of potential sites to public transit? Are there toll roads? CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD
UNTIL WE GET TO THAT POINT 2037 Produce on Demand Eliminates finished goods inventories Eliminates the need for complex distribution models Saves COSTS!
CLOSING THOUGHTS EMBRACE THE MARKET CHANGES DEVELOP STRATEGY TO SUCCEED IN REAL ESTATE & SUPPLY CHAIN 4 3 Thank you! Gregg Healy Executive Managing Director, Supply Chain & Logistics Consulting Gregory.Healy@ Colliers.com "It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change." Charles Darwin