Dairy Outlook 2014 Midwest & Great Plains Outlook Conference Katelyn McCullock Dairy & Forage Economist Livestock Marketing Information Center
KEY TO DAIRY 2014 Prices are record high in the first half. Profitability has been very good and will remain. Dairy demand remains strong worldwide Lower Feed Costs Rapid herd expansion: Inventory? Drought minimal impact or restrained growth? Export markets face more competition: Oceania production, EU Quota, Russia?
$ Per Pound 28.00 ALL MILK PRICE Dollars per CWT 26.00 24.00 22.00 20.00 18.00 16.00 14.00 12.00 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg. 2008-12 2013 2014 Denotes New Record High *Previous was $22.10 Data Source: USDA-AMS, Dairy Market News, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC 08/04/14
$ Per Pound 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00-0.50-1.00-1.50-2.00-2.50-3.00 CLASS III CLASS IV DIFFERENCE IN MILK PRICE Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg. 2008-12 2013 2014 Data Source: USDA-AMS, Dairy Market News, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC 08/04/14
$ Per Pound 2.40 2.20 2.00 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 PRICE vs VOLUME CHEDDAR CHEESE 500 Pound Barrel, US, Weekly Mil. Pounds 14 12 10 8 6 Price Volume Data Source: USDA-NASS 08/04/14
1000 MT 40 CHEESE AND CURD EXPORTS Monthly 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg. 2008-12 2013 2014 Data Source: USDA-FAS 08/06/14
Mil. Pounds 1175 TOTAL CHEESE IN COLD STORAGE End of the Month 1125 1075 1025 975 925 875 JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Avg. 2008-12 2013 2014 Data Source: USDA/NASS 07/22/14
$ Per Pound 2.60 BUTTER PRICES US, Weekly 2.40 2.20 2.00 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.20 JAN APR JUL OCT Avg. 2008-12 2013 2014 Data Source: USDA-NASS 08/06/14
Mil. Pounds 350 BUTTER IN COLD STORAGE End of the Month 300 250 200 150 100 JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Avg. 2008-12 2013 2014 Data Source: USDA/NASS 07/22/14
1000 MT 14 BUTTER AND OIL EXPORTS Monthly 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg. 2008-12 2013 2014 Data Source: USDA-FAS 08/06/14
$ per lb $2.35 OCEANIA BUTTER Biweekly $2.15 $1.95 $1.75 $1.55 $1.35 $1.15 $0.95 $0.75 JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP OCT DEC Avg. 2008-2012 2013 2014 Data Source: USDA-AMS 07/18/14
$ Per Pound 2.80 2.60 2.40 2.20 2.00 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 MILK-FEED PRICE RATIO US, Monthly Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg. 2008-12 2013 2014 Data Source: USDA-NASS 08/04/14
2013 returned to normal for many states 2011: Texas 8% of total U.S. production down to 3% CA represents 7% of U.S. hay production in 2013 Prices rose 56% nationally in 2011/2012 CA Hay: 30% higher than 2013 in July WEATHER: HAY
ALL HAY PRICE PERCENT CHANGES IN JULY 2013-2014 4% 18% -11% -23% -34% 30% 20% 9% 2% -24% -20% -34% -45% -3% -28% -33% 1% -31% -20% -23% -4% 2% 34% 20% 5% -6% National Prices: All Hay: 1.1% Alfalfa: 3.3% Other: -4.0% -4% -100% to -23% -23% to 0% 0% to 9% 9% to 35%
Percent 40 US RANGE AND PASTURE CONDITION Percent Poor and Very Poor, Weekly 35 30 25 20 15 10 May Jul Sep Avg. 2008-12 2013 2014 Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC G-NP-30 08/11/14
$ Per Ton 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 ALFALFA HAY MONTHLY AVERAGE PRICE Received by Farmers, U.S., Crop Year MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR Avg. 08/09-12/13 2013/14 2014/15 Data Source: USDA-NASS G-P-12 08/04/14
$ Per Ton 160 OTHER HAY MONTHLY AVERAGE PRICE Received by Farmers, U.S., Crop Year 150 140 130 120 110 100 MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR Avg. 08/09-12/13 2013/14 2014/15 Data Source: USDA-NASS G-P-13 08/04/14
HAY OUTLOOK Objective yield numbers largely do not match price picture. Drought Monitor may be overstated
MILK PRODUCTION 2013 3.1% 1.2% 6.7% 0.1% 0.1% West: 41% of Milk Production in 2013 Nationally, almost all states increasing total production. 20.5% 0.3% 1.0% 2.2% 1.7% 4.0% Milk per cow is unknown, sequestration.
Bil Pounds 17.2 MILK PRODUCTION 23 States, Monthly 16.7 16.2 15.7 15.2 14.7 14.2 13.7 13.2 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg. 2008-12 2013 2014 Data Source: USDA-NASS 07/18/14
Thou. Head 9290 DAIRY COW INVENTORY US Total, Monthly 9270 9250 9230 9210 9190 9170 Sequestration suspended data from March to July of 2013 from USDA-NASS. These graphs use LMIC estimates during this time. JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2008-12 2013 2014 Data Source: USDA-NASS 07/18/14
DAIRY COW HERD REPLACEMENTS July 1 Inventory Percent of Cow Herd 0.48 0.46 0.44 0.42 0.4 0.38 0.36 0.34 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Data Source: USDA-NASS
JULY CATTLE INVENTORY Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: A random sample of United States producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all cattle producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Data were collected during the first half of June from about 40,000 small and medium sized operations. These operators were contacted by face-to-face personal interviews. About 10,000 large producers and feedlots were contacted during the first half of July by mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Operators were asked to report inventories as of the first of the month and calf crop for the entire year of 2014. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve year to year and item to item relationships. Estimates for the previous year are subject to revision when current estimates are made and when the January 1 cattle inventory estimates are made. The revisions are primarily based on livestock slaughter and additional foreign trade and survey data. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Same as earlier years. Proportion of dairy sampled is ~40% had a dairy cows on their place of the 10, 000 large producers. Reliability estimates are not given for the specific categories. All Cows: Revisions are 0-600,000 head, average is about 210,000 Figures no longer rounded to the nearest 50 thousand head Overlap with the quarterly milk production survey.
MILK PRODUCTION REPORT Milk Production survey sample size ~10k producers all shapes and sizes. Reliability estimates, 0-10,000, average 4,000 Revision Policy: Milk production, milk per cow, and number of milk cows are subject to revision the following month after initial publication for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, administrative data from Federal Market Orders, State Departments of Agriculture, or other sources are the main basis for revisions. However, administrative data for all States may not be available in time for these revisions. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Milk production report intended to be an average for the month. Meaning the July Milk Production Report data does not have to match July 1, cattle inventory July 1 inventory should be between June and July Milk Production Report.
IMPLICATIONS OF INVENTORY July Milk Production report: June revision should be down, with July slightly up from month earlier OR July Inventory comes in close to the July 1 figure Dairy Cow numbers are no longer growing. Beef herd also not retaining heifers -2% from 2012 (-2% from LMIC 2013 estimate, as well)
Thou. Head 215 HEIFER SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly 205 195 185 175 165 155 145 135 JAN APR JUL OCT Avg. 2008-12 2013 2014 Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS C-S-13 08/08/14
Thou. Head 9280 9270 9260 9250 9240 9230 9220 9210 9200 9190 9180 DAIRY COW INVENTORY US Total, Monthly Sequestration suspended data from March to July of 2013 from USDA-NASS. These graphs use LMIC estimates during this time. JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2008-12 2013 2014 Data Source: USDA-NASS 07/18/14
Thou. Head 75 DAIRY COW SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 JAN APR JUL OCT Avg. 2008-12 2013 2014 Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS C-S-35 08/07/14
Bil. $ 6.0 US DAIRY INDUSTRY EXPORT VALUES Annual 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Live Cattle Milk,Crm&Pwdr Whey Nat Mlk Butter Cheese Casein Data Source: USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC 02/06/14
Bil. $ 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5-1.0-1.5 US DAIRY INDUSTRY NET EXPORT VALUES Annual 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Live Cattle Milk,Crm&Pwdr Whey Nat Mlk Butter Cheese Casein Total Data Source: USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC 02/06/14
NEW ZEALAND DROUGHT
NEW ZEALAND DROUGHT
1000 MT 80 MILK AND CREAM EXPORTS Concentrated or Sweetened, Monthly 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg. 2008-12 2013 2014 Data Source: USDA-FAS 08/06/14
EXPORT GROWTH TWO-FOLD Mature vs. Emerging Markets Role of the Cold Chain Demand from existing markets Chinese economy Mexico World-wide increases in dairy
EXPORTS TO CHINA AND MEXICO EXPAND Thousands $ 1400 1200 1000 800 753 600 400 303 200 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD Data Source: USDA-FAS China Mexico
Questions Katelyn McCullock Dairy & Forage Economist Website: www.lmic.info Katelyn.mccullock@lmic.info Phone: 303-236-0467