Michigan s Dairy Industry. Ken Nobis, MMPA President

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1 Michigan s Dairy Industry Ken Nobis, MMPA President

2 ONE CENTURY STRONG 1,200 DAIRY FARMS 5 Billion LBS. OF MILK Quality Integrity Leadership Progressive Community

3 MMPA Locations Products made at Ovid & Constantine Plants: Butter, Cream, Condensed Milk, Dry Milk Powders, and Specialty Blends. Middlebury Plant: Colby, Monterey-jack and Cheddar type cheeses.

4 Milk Production and Market Outlook

5 Top Ten Dairy States 1. California 40.8 billion lbs -3.4% 2. Wisconsin Idaho New York Pennsylvania Texas Michigan Minnesota New Mexico Washington

6 Thousand 1,100 1, Number of Dairy Cows & Total Annual Production Michigan Milk production in Michigan has increased 80% since 2000 while cow numbers have increased 36% during this time Dairy Cows Annual Milk Production Million pounds 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000

7 Milk Production Per Cow- Top 10 States State Milk Produced Per Cow 1. Colorado 25,685 pounds 2. Michigan 25,130 pounds 3. Arizona 24,477 pounds 4. New Mexico 24,245 pounds 5. Idaho 24,126 pounds 6. Washington 23,848 pounds 7. Utah 23,146 pounds 8. Nevada 23,069 pounds 9. California 23,002 pounds 10. Iowa 22,943 pounds

8 The Michigan Advantage Agricultural Land Climate Water Infrastructure Access to Population Centers

9 The Michigan Advantage Advances in genetics, nutrition, herd management, and technology innovation have led to greater efficiency in the dairy industry.

10 U.S. MILK PRODUCTION (adjusted for leap year) December = +2.2% Calendar YTD = +1.6% Billion Lbs JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

11 U.S. Production: A Tale of Two Milksheds 2015 Total U.S. = Billion Pounds (+1.3% YoY) Upper Midwest +2.8 billion lbs Northeast +0.5 billion lbs California -1.4 billion lbs Source: USDA NASS

12 STATE MILK PRODUCTION (adjusted for leap year) 1, December = +3.9% Calendar YTD = +5.8% Million Lbs JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Four states represents 52% of U.S. YTD increase in milk production.

13 U.S. Exports and Imports as % of Milk Production

14 Milk Production Summary for Major Exporters

15 It s a Changing Dairy Trade Environment the new normal 1. EU quotas constrain supply Unrestricted EU production, but with government assistance 2. Returns from world market attractive Returns from world market less attractive 3. U.S. support program serves as price floor U.S. safety net is now margin insurance 4. Weak U.S. dollar Stronger U.S. dollar 5. Strong commodity cycle Weak commodity cycle 6. Strong China and Asian economic growth Lower Asian growth with some stress 7. Growing wealth in oil-producing countries Economic pressure on oil-producing countries 8. Free Trade Agreements (FTA s) pursued by most dairy exporters NZ, AU and EU have finished many FTA s while U.S. struggles with TPP and TTIP Source: USDEC

16 Production Correction is Building milk production volume change from prior year Top 5 Global Suppliers India Sub- Sahar. Africa

17 Michigan's Dairy Industry Dairy farmers facing economic challenges in Farm milk prices have dropped over 40% since Price outlook for 2017 shows some improvement.

18 Price ($/cwt) Changes in Milk Prices in Michigan, Dec Nov $25.00 $24.73/cwt. Sept $20.00 $15.00 $13.98/cwt. Nov $12.11/cwt. May 2016 $10.00 Dec. 1, 12 Jun. 1, 13 Dec. 1, 13 Jun. 1, 14 Dec. 1, 14 Jun. 1, 15 Dec. 1, 15 Jun. 1, 16 Dec. 1, 16

19 Michigan's Dairy Industry Current processing capacity will need to be expanded to accommodate milk production growth. MMPA members have invested over $100 million over the last seven years to expand MMPA processing facilities. Evaluation of further dairy expansion opportunities underway.

20 Cheese Plant Exploration of Joint Ownership of Cheese Plant

21 Deutsch Käse Haus, Middlebury, IN MMPA assumed ownership Nov. 1, 2016 Processes around 400,000 pounds of milk/day Allows MMPA to diversify its product portfolio Provides opportunities for expansion Located in close proximity to MMPA Constantine Plant Produces Colby cheese, a softer, milder flavored cheddar cheese, in addition to Colby-jack, Monterey-jack, Cheddar, pepper-jack cheese and other flavors.

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25 Increased Demand for Milkfat Revised views on impact of dietary fat consumption on cardiovascular health and obesity has led to growth in consumption of milkfat in the U.S. domestic market Butter Fluid whole milk Yogurt Cheese Other products

26 Growth of the Middle Class The middle class is projected to grow by over 170% or more than 3 billion people from 2009 to 2030 Millions 6,000 5, Billion 4, Billion 3,000 2, Billion 1,000 0 World Population

27 How the ARMS Survey Information Helps the Dairy Industry Understanding of Dairy Farm Trends farm sizes, cost of production, farm practices, farm finances, etc. Assists with U.S. Dairy Policy Discussions ex Farm Bill Evaluate Impacts and Opportunities in Export market Information is used in discussions with Legislators, Regulatory Agency and University representatives.

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