Overview
Cotton Fiber Consumption Remains Below Peak million tons of mill-use 3-1% versus 26/7 peak 25 2 15 y = 9.9769e.177x R² =.9664 1 +132% versus 1991 5 - Source: ICAC
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 Drivers of Fiber Demand Growth Population Economic growth Fiber price levels 8. 7.5 7. Principal Drivers of Fiber Demand world population (billions) global GDP (trillions 25 USD) World Population World GDP 65 6 55 Cotton prices relative to competing fibers 6.5 5 6. 45 5.5 4 5. 35 4.5 3 4. 25 Source: World Bank
Growth in Global Fiber Demand million tons of mill-use 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Man-Made Wool Cotton +18.7x versus 196 +.7x versus 196 +2.3x versus 196 Source: ICAC
1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 199 1993 1996 1999 22 25 28 211 214 Man-Made Fiber Mill-Use million tons of mill-use 7 6 5 4 3 MM Filament MM Staple +953% versus 1975 (1.5x) 2 1 +514% versus 1975 (6x) Source: Fiber Organon
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Man-Made Fiber Mill-Use Composition of Man-Made Fiber Mill-Use in Staple 37% 7 6 5 4 3 Growth in Man-Made Fiber Mill-Use 1991- million tons of mill-use MM Filament MM Staple +325% versus 1991 Filament 63% 2 1 +129% versus 1991 Source: PCI Fibres
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Man-Made Filament Mill-Use Composition of Man-Made Filament Mill-Use in Poly propy lene 1% Nylon 1% 51% Textile 31% Industrial 17% Carpet 45 4 35 3 25 2 Growth in Man-Made Filament Mill-Use 1991- million tons of mill-use Cellulosic Polypropylene Filament Nylon Polyester -51% +135% +35% Polyester 82% 9% Textile 7% Industrial 3% Other 15 1 5 +325% versus 1991 Source: PCI Fibres
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Man-Made Staple Mill-Use Composition of Man-Made Staple Mill-Use in Polypropylene 5% Nylon 1% Polyester 92% Cellulosic 2% 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Growth in Man-Made Staple Mill-Use 1991- million tons of mill-use Nylon Cellulosic Polypropylene Polyester -79% -51% +3% +226% versus 1991 Source: PCI Fibres
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Determining Cotton s Share Many different fibers to measure against What is the fiber universe to compare cotton usage against to determine share? - Exclude industrial uses? - Exclude filament? PCI Fibres indicates certain end-uses for mmf staple and filament where cotton is not competitive - Automotive applications, sacking/luggage, tarping/tenting, roping are examples Future work could delineate these applications Change in Different Measures of Cotton s Share 65% 6% 55% 5% 45% 4% 35% 3% 25% 2% cotton s share of different compositions of mill-use 6% 57% 46% All Fibers Staple & Textile Filaments Staple Fibers Only 5% 31% 27% Sources: ICAC & PCI Fibres
China
199/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/ 2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 213/14 214/15 /16 Chinese Cotton Mill-Use Growth in Chinese Cotton Mill-Use 1991- China s Share of Global Cotton Consumption 12 1 million tons of mill-use 199/91 23% China ROW 8 6 4 2 +158% in 27/8 versus 199/91-35% in /16 versus 27/8 27/8 /16 41% 3% Source: ICAC
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Chinese Polyester Mill-Use Growth in Chinese Polyester Mill-Use 1991-35 million tons of mill-use 3 China s Share of Global Polyester Consumption 199/91 18% China ROW 25 2 15 +175% in versus 199 27/8 59% 1 5 /16 64% Source: PCI Fibres
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Chinese Polyester Mill-Use Growth in Chinese Polyester Mill-Use 1991- Shares of Chinese Polyester Consumption - Staple vs. Filament 35 3 25 2 15 million tons of mill-use Polyester Filament Polyester Staple +288% in versus 199 199/91 27/8 53% 37% Filament Staple 1 5 +845% /16 28% Source: PCI Fibres
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Chinese Polyester Filament Use Growth in Chinese Polyester Filament Use 1991-35 million tons of mill-use Polyester Filament 3 China s Share of Global Polyester Filament Mill-Use 199/91 17% China ROW 25 2 15 1 5 +288% in versus 199 In 94% Textile 5% Industrial 1% Other 27/8 /16 61% 69% Source: PCI Fibres
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Chinese Polyester Staple Use Growth in Chinese Polyester Staple Use 1991-35 million tons of mill-use Polyester Staple 3 199/91 China s Share of Global Polyester Staple Mill-Use 19% China ROW 25 2 15 27/8 55% 1 5 +845% versus 1991 /16 56% Source: PCI Fibres
2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Cotton and Polyester Prices 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Cotton and Polyester Staple Prices cents/lb A Index CC Index China Polyester Separation Between Cotton & Chinese Polyester Prices 1 8 6 4 2 cotton prices less Chinese polyester prices in cents/lb A Index less Chinese Polyester CC Index less Chinese Polyester -2 Sources: Cotlook & Emerging Textiles
9/22/25 7/22/26 5/22/27 3/22/28 1/22/29 11/22/29 9/22/21 7/22/211 5/22/212 3/22/213 1/22/214 11/22/214 9/22/ Polyester Prices in different countries cents/lb 14 13 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 USA CHINA PAKISTAN TAIWAN Sources: Cotlook & Emerging Textiles
1991 1994 1997 2 23 26 29 212 2 23 26 29 212 Cotton s Share - China 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Change in Different Measures of Cotton s Share 8% cotton s share of different measures of mill-use in China 69% 67% 58% All Fibers Staple & Textile Filaments Staple Fibers Only 35% 31% 27% Separation Between Cotton & Chinese Polyester Prices 1 8 6 4 2-2 cotton prices less Chinese polyester prices in cents/lb A Index less Chinese Polyester CC Index less Chinese Polyester Sources: Cotlook & Emerging Textiles
Trade Fiber & Yarn
1991 1995 1999 23 27 211 Chinese Polyester Production Chinese Polyester Production & Mill-Use 1991-35 million tons Production 3 Mill-Use 25 2 China produces 7x as much polyester as the next largest country India (4.5 mil. tons in ) India produces 3x as much polyester as the next largest country Indonesia (1.5 mil. tons) Three countries have production near the level in Indonesia Taiwan, Korea, U.S. 15 1 5 Source: PCI Fibres
1991 1995 1999 23 27 211 Chinese Polyester Production & Use Chinese Polyester Production & Mill-Use 1991-35 3 25 2 15 1 5 million tons Production Mill-Use China s mills consumed more polyester than it produced until 27 Since 27, China s polyester production surplus has grown to 2.4 million tons () This 2.4 million tons exceeds Indonesian production (ranked 3 rd in ) by more than one million tons China is the world s top exporter of polyester Source: PCI Fibres
1991 1995 1999 23 27 211 1991 1995 1999 23 27 211 Chinese Polyester Production & Use Filament & Staple Chinese Polyester Filament Production & Mill-Use Chinese Polyester Staple Production & Mill-Use 25 million tons 25 million tons Production - Filament Production - Staple 2 2 Mill-Use - Filament Mill-Use - Staple 15 15 1 1 5 5 Source: PCI Fibres
Chinese Polyester Filament & Staple Exports Chinese Polyester Filament Exports Chinese Polyester Staple Exports 2.5 million tons 2.5 million tons 2. 2. 1.5 1.5 1. 1..5.5. 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214. 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Source: GTIS
Chinese Polyester Filament & Staple Exports Chinese Polyester Filament Exports () Destination Country Volume in Tons (share) Turkey 242, (12%) Vietnam 21,39 (1%) South Korea 178,427 (9%) Pakistan 166,466 (8%) Egypt 135,671 (7%) U.S. 115,513 (6%) Brazil 74,653 (4%) Indonesia 68,265 (3%) Mexico 59,63 (3%) Bangladesh 56,479 (3%) Rest of World 72,5 (35%) Chinese Polyester Staple Exports () Destination Country Volume in Tons (share) U.S. 28,15 (22%) Pakistan 12,348 (13%) India 7,65 (7%) Indonesia 52,438 (6%) Mexico 47,463 (5%) Israel 4,14 (4%) Vietnam 39,752 (4%) Russia 31,78 (3%) Brazil 31,576 (3%) Turkey 28,318 (3%) Rest of World 273,372 (29%) Source: GTIS
24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Major Apparel Import Markets 1% cotton-dominant share of t-shirt import weight China s Share of All Apparel Imports of All Fibers 9% U.S. 36% 8% 7% 6% EU-28 39% 5% 4% 3% 2% US - China US - ROW EU - China EU - ROW Japan - China Japan - ROW -28 ppt -12 ppt -19 ppt -6 ppt -37 ppt -28 ppt Change 24-6 to Present Japan 68% Note: China s share of total apparel derived from import values for HS chapters 61 & 62 in (US & Japan) or 214 (latest available for EU). Sources: US ITC, EuroStat, Japan Customs. Share data are ratios of weight volumes of HS 6191 (cotton-dominant) and the sum of HS 6191 & HS 6199 (mmf-dominant).
Cotton Incorporated Survey of Industry Expectations Top Reasons for Companies with Plans to Use More Cotton Consumer Demand 56% Price Fashion 26% 31% 68% of industry contacts plan to use more cotton in 216 Sustainability Quality Technologies 15% 15% 13% Cotton Incorporated Cotton Usage Survey, figures for reasons sited are for respondents those planning to use more cotton in 216
Where Polyester Comes From
Polyester What is it? Both are derived from naphtha - The only end-use for PTA is polyester - There are other end-uses for MEG - Both PTA and MEG are actively derived and are not by-products of other processes Naphtha PTA MEG Polyester fiber is made by combining 71% PTA (purified terephthalate acid) 29% MEG (monoethylene glycol) Polyester Note: Image and polyester derivation information provided by PCI Fibres
199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 China Oil Production and Consumption 12 million barrels per day China s Share of Global Oil Consumption 1 Production Consumption Germany 9% China 8% 8 6 4 2 1992 Russia 14% Japan 17% India 9% Russia 9% USA 52% 213 Japan 11% USA 46% China 25% Source: EIA - International Energy Statistics
In 214, China became the largest net importer of crude oil in the world million barrels per day China 6.1 USA 5.1 Japan 4.2 India 2.7 South Korea Germany 2.2 2.3 France 1.6 Spain Italy 1.1 1.2 Taiwan 1 Source: EIA - International Energy Statistics