Globalization and the Millennium Development Goals Negotiating the Challenge Edited by Manmohan Agarwal and Amit Shovon Ray Social Science Press NEW DELHI
Contents Preface and Acknowledgements List of Contributors Introductory Remarks: Why India will fail to meet the Millennium Development Goals Meghnad Desai xi xiii xv SECTION I: GLOBALIZATION AND THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS 1. Globalization and the Millennium Development Goals: Negotiating the Challenge 3 Manmohan Agarwal and Amit Shovon Ray 1.1 Role of the Government in Economic Development: Changing Perceptions 3 1.2 Development Strategies 6 1.3 Effect of Globalization on Economic Growth 8 1.4 Beyond Growth: Rethinking the Objectives of Development 13 1.5 Globalization, Poverty and Income Distribution 15 1.6 The Present Volume 19 2. Africa: Growth and Social Progress 27 Manmohan Agarwal and Prabhu Prasad Mishra 2.1 Economic Performance and Structure 27 2.2 Model Specification and Estimation 38
vi Contents 2.3 Prospects for Improved Growth Performance 41 2.4 Africa and International Economic Institutions 44 3. Developing an African Growth Plan 48 Ross Herbert SECTION II: ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES OF GLOBALIZATION 4. World Economic Performance and Social Progress 61 Manmohan Agarwal 4.1 Macroeconomic Performance of the World Economy 61 4.2 Social Progress 74 4.3 Construction of an Aggregate Human Development Index 80 4.4 Results 85 5. Agricultural Trade Liberalization in India: A Critical Review 90 G.S. Bhalla 5.1 Economic Reforms, Trade Liberalization and Indian Agriculture 90 5.2 Impact of Liberalization and Trade Reforms on Indian Agriculture 97 5.3 Conclusion 110 6. Globalization and Informal Sector Employment: The Case of India's Unorganized Manufacturing 113 G.K. Chadha 6.1 Introduction 113 6.2 Data and Concepts 115 6.3 Structure of Unorganized Manufacturing Employment 118 6.4 Recent Employment Setbacks in the Indian Economy 123 6.5 Employment in Unorganized Manufacturing 127 6.6 Conclusion 142 7. Globalization and Auto Component SMEs in India 147 Neelam Singh 7.1 Introduction 147 7.2 Policy Framework 148 7.3 Auto Industry: Structure and Major Developments 152
Contents 7.4 SMEs in the Automotive Sector 160 7.5 Capability Building 165 7.6 Concluding Remarks and Recommendations 169 SECTION III: HEALTH 8. Access to New Drugs in India: Implications of TRIPS 175 Amit Shovon Ray and Manashi Chakravorty 8.1 New Drug Discovery: Innovativeness, Therapeutic Focus and Delay in Launch 176 8.2 Launch of New Drugs in India: An Empirical Analysis 181 8.3 Synthesis and Conclusion 187 9. Treating AIDS: Intellectual Property, Generic Production and the Challenge of Stable Supply 190 Kem Shadlen 9.1. Importance of Price Stability 194 9.2 IP and Access. 196 9.3 Beyond Legalism: TRIPS, India's Patent Act and the Future of Generic Supply 201 9.4 Overcoming the Challenges to Stabilizing Supply 208 9.5 Conclusion 210 10. Reproductive Health and the MDGs: Rhetoric and Reality 215 Ernestina Coast 10.1 Population World Conferences 215 10.2 What are SRHR? 218 10.3 From ICPD to MDG 221 10.4 SRHR and the 2005 World Summit 227 SECTION IV: EDUCATION 11. What is Universal Primary Education? Literacy, Citizenship and Critical Thinking 235 Eva-Maria Nag 11.1 Values Behind the Commitment to Universal Primary Education 236 11.2 What Kind of Literacy? 238 11.3 State of the World: Deep Diversity 241 11.4 Critical Thinking and Education 246 11.5 Concluding Remarks 250 vii
viii Contents 12. Market-Driven Higher Education 253 AM Rai 12.1 Marketization of Higher Education 253 12.2 Humanities versus'knowledge' 255 12.3 Social Costs of 'Bad' Education 256 12.4 Market as a Diagnostic Tool 257 12.5 Conclusion 259 LIST OF TABLES 2.1a: GDP by PPP in 2000 29 2.1b: GDP in 2000 30 2.2: GDP per capita Growth 31 2.3: Export Growth 32 2.4: Exports as a percentage of GDP 33 2.5: Industrial Value Added 34 2.6: Agricultural Value Added 34 2.7: Government Consumption Expenditure 35 2.8: Gross Fixed Capital Formation 35 2.9: Actual and Predicted Growth Rates 42 4.1: Average Annual Growth of PCY 63 4.2: Annual Increase in GDP Deflator 64 4.3: Gross Fixed Capital Formation 65 4.4: Incremental Output-Capital Ratios 65 4.5: External Balance on Goods and Services 70 4.6a: Aid Flows 71 4.6b: Gross Private Capital Flows 71 4.6c: Aid as a Percentage of Private Capital Flows 71 4.7: Gross Foreign Direct Investment 71 4.8: Exports of Goods and Services 72 4.9a: Share of LDC in World Exports 74 4.9b: Share of LDC in Exports of LDCs 74 4.10: Proportion of Population in Poverty, 1981-2001 76 4.11: Prevalence of Undernourishment 77 4.12: Prevalence of Malnutrition 77 4.13: Enrolment Ratio 78 4.14: Primary Completion Ratio 79 4.15: Literacy Ratios 79 4.16: Gender Equality 79 4.17: Mortality Rates 80
Contents 4.18: MDI for 1990 86 4.19: MDI for 2000 87 5.1: Welfare Gains to Developing Countries from Removing Barriers to Trade in Goods 94 5.2: Growth Rates of GDP and per capita Income 98 5.3: Area Production and Yield of Major Crops 98 5.4: Agricultural Exports and Imports and their Share in Total Exports and Imports 100 5.5: World Trade in Agricultural Products, 2004 101 5.6: Growth of Workers UPSS, 1972-73 to 1999-2000 103 5.7: Number Unemployed and the Incidence of Unemployment, 1973-74 to 1999-2000 103 5.8: Index of TOT between Agriculture and Non-agriculture 106 5.9: Income TOT for Agriculture 107 5.10: Percentage of People below Poverty Line, 1983-2000 108 5.11: Poverty among All Rural Persons and Farmers 109 6.1: Structure of Manufacturing Sector in India, 1984-85/2000-01. 116 6.2: Structure of Unorganized Manufacturing Sector in India, 1984-85/2000-01 119 6.3: Annual Compound Growth Rate of Employment for Usual Status (Principal+Subsidiary) Workers by Residence and Production Sectors, 1983/1999-2000 124 6.4: Growth of Employment in Unorganized Manufacturing by Rural-Urban Location and Production Sectors, 1984-85/2000-01 129 6.5: Number of Units and Workers in Unorganized Manufacturing Sector, 1984-85/2000-01 131 6.6: Growth Rates of Unorganized Agro-Manufacturing Enterprises, Employment and Productivity/Worker, 1984-85/2000-01 139 7.1: Exports, Imports and Production of Auto Components 155 7.2: Foreign Collaborations for Auto Components 156 7.3: Auto Components Falling under the Early Harvest Scheme of India-Thai FTA 158 7.4: India's Auto Component Exports and Imports in Selected Countries 159 8.1: Innovativeness and Therapeutic Focus of New Drugs Globally Launched during 1995-2003 182 8.2: Year-wise Details of Drug Launch 183 8.3: Innovativeness and Launch in India 183 ix
x Contents 8.4: Therapeutic Focus and Launch in India 184 8.5: Innovativeness and Therapeutic Focus of New Drugs Launched in India 185 8.6: Delays (Lags) in Drug Launch 185 8.7: Delays (Lags) in Drug Launch over Time 186 8.8: Competition in the Year of Launch of New Drugs in India 186 9.1: Comparing Prices and Costs of Various Types Generic Drugs 205 10.1: Statements in World Conferences 219 10.2: SRH Indicators and Goals 225 10.3: SRHR-related Statements included in the 2005 World Summit Outcome 228 10.4: SRHR-related Statements included in the 2005 United Nations World Summit Outcome (A/60/L. 1) 228 LIST OF FIGURES 5.1: Growth Rate of Yield 99 5.2: Growth Rate of Output 99 5.3: Agricultural Exports and Imports 101 5.4: Barter Terms of Trade DES & GDP Deflator 105 5.5: Income TOT for Agriculture 107