Primary Materials Extraction Materials Refining & Processing Effluent/Waste Parts Fabrication Subassembly/ Component Manufacture Vehicle Assembly Vehicle Distribution, Sale & Use Vehicle Disposal Resources/Raw Materials Estimation of Body Costs Spreadsheet provided Lotus 12 version Excel version Basic Elements 4 key body components Roof Rear Floorpan Quarter Panel Inner Quarter Panel Outer Material Options Steel Aluminum SMC Steel Aluminum SMC Roof OK OK OK Rear Floorpan OK OK OK QP Inner OK OK NOK! QP Outer OK OK OK Material choices for key components propogate throughout entire BIW
Top-Level Spreadsheet Overview Four criteria components Body line inputs Model output summaries Material costs Criteria Component Input Specification of component material is the sole input Collects necessary inputs from the "Inputs" Sheet and moves it to the appropriate process model: Stamping for steel and aluminum SMC molding for SMC
Quarter Panel Inner CANNOT Be SMC Selecting SMC will generate errors! Body Line Inputs Basic Parameters Production Volume Wage Rate, Benefits and Overhead Capital Accounting Assumptions
Model Outputs Cost & mass of criteria parts BIW Cost and mass Material & part type distribution Model Outputs (continued) Cost summaries
Problem: Which Materials? Vehicle BIW Composition is at your discretion Decision variables to consider Vehicle Mass Vehicle Cost Recycling Targets Fuel Consumption/Vehicle Efficiency Production Volume Other factors Cost to operate Cost to recycle Operating Cost Effects Focus on Fuel Economy Repair Is A Secondary Effect Data Is Limited, and Highly Proprietary Insurance Agencies Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Depends Upon Vehicle Mass - F=ma Vehicle Aerodynamics - Wind resistance Vehicle Tires/Drivetrain - "Rolling" resistance Complex to predict Driving cycles
"First Principles" Mass/MPG Calculation Mile Per Gallon 50 45 40 5 0 25 20 MPG = 8627.4 (Mass) -0.74584 15 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 000 500 Vehicle Mass (pounds) Rule Of Thumb - 10-5 Rule A 10% Reduction In Mass... Yields A 5% Increase In Fuel Economy So, If A Baseline 111 lb Vehicle Gets 21.6 mpg... MPG = 895.24 (mass) -0.46 Miles Per Gallon 50 45 40 5 0 25 20 10-5 Rule "First Principles" 15 500 1500 2500 500 1000 2000 000 Vehicle Mass (pounds)
Third Calculation - DeLuchi Some Scaling Modifications: 50 45 Mass = 2.015 FE 2-194.85 FE + 675.54 Miles Per Gallon 40 5 0 25 20 15 500 1500 2500 1000 2000 000 Vehicle Mass (pounds) 500 DeLuchi 10-5 Rule "First Principles" Rules of Thumb For Revenue & Landfill Expenses Cost of Landfill --- $120/ton Value of Ferrous Scrap --- $100/ton Value of Mixed Nonferrous Scrap --- $900/ton Separation Efficiencies --- 90% of ferrous recovered 90% of nonferrous recovered rest goes to landfill Dismantlers Get Some Off Before The Shredder: 50% of the Iron 80% of the Stainless 50% of the Aluminum 25% of the Copper 50% of the Glass 50% of the Rubber This is a function of the kinds of parts made of these materials. For the purposes of this analysis, use the regressions to calculate the costs of the baseline vehicle. Then use the top 4 bullet facts to look at the impact of changes in the vahicle material composition.
Baseline Vehicle Material Composition Plastics 224.5 Aluminum 155.5 Copper 49.5 Zinc 20.0 Lead ---- Other Ferrous 68.5 Iron 459.0 Carbon Steel 187.0 HSS 24.0 Stainless 1.0 Glass 85.0 Rubber 14.5 Fluids 179.5 Other 8.0 Total 111.0 "Unrecyclable" "Nonferrous" "Ferrous" "Unrecyclable" Estimated Costs of Recycling Processing Assumptions: Cost of Hulk - approx. $50 70 ton/hr shredder 8 hrs/day operation 4 hrs/day maintenance Transportation Costs - $0.10/ton/mi Regression: Cost / Vehicle Cost = -48.7820-0.015 F - 0.0079 N - 0.0072 U Processing Cost $20 $0 ($20) ($40) ($60) ($80) Regression Estimate Model Results Where: F = Car Ferrous Mass (lbs) N = Car Non-Ferrous Mass (lb) (not including lead) U = Car Unrecyclable Mass (lb) ($100) ($120) 1 2 4 5 7 9 11 1 15 6 8 10 12 14 Sample #
Ferrous Metal Revenue - Estimated Assumed $100/ton shredded steel scrap Standard Processing $120 $100 Regression Results From Cost Model Where (all in pounds): F = total ferrous mass of car N = total nonferrous mass (net of battery lead) U = total mass of unrecyclable Result:-in dollars per vehicle 2.2248 + 0.076 F + 0.0055 N - 0.0068 U = Ferrous Revenue Ferrous Metal Revenue $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 1 2 4 5 Regression Estimate Model Result 7 9 11 1 15 6 8 10 12 14 Sample # Non-Ferrous Metal Revenues - Estimated More Detailed Estimate $60 Recovery Rates of Aluminum, Copper, and Zinc Different $50 Overall Mixed Metal Scrap Value Assumed At $0.45/lb Result-Dollars per vehicle: Revenue = 0.2025 Al + 0.08 Cu + 0.4050 Zn Nonferrous Revenue $40 $0 $20 Where : Al = total aluminum in car Cu = total copper in car Zn = total zinc in car Note: Aluminum companies are being pressed to offer higher scrap values! $10 $0 1 2 4 5 Regression Estimate Model Result 7 9 11 1 15 6 8 10 12 14 Sample #
Landfill Cost Estimate Assumptions: Landfill Cost - $120/ton Separations Not 100% Efficient Results: Landfill Cost Per Vehicle Cost = 6.982-0.0018 F + 0.0041 N - 0.0574 U Where: F = Car Ferrous Mass (lbs) N = Car Non-Ferrous Mass (lb) (not including lead) U = Car Unrecyclable Mass (lb) Landfill Expense $10 $0 ($10) ($20) ($0) ($40) Regression Estimate Model Results ($50) 1 2 4 5 7 9 11 1 15 6 8 10 12 14 Sample Analysis of Problem Necessary Analyses Costs of Production Costs of Operation Costs of Recycling Variations Production Volume Material Costs Lower Aluminum Costs? Variations in Scrap? Note Analysis Tops Out at One Assembly Plant - ~250,000/yr Third shift is expensive
Spreadsheet Mechanics Starting Assumption: You all already know how to do sensitivity analysis in spreadsheets (Data Table????) Online Resource To Remind You Supplied On WWW Site How To Do A Data Table When Varying Multiple Inputs? e.g., Four material specifications at a time? Scenario Table Construction Combined With VLOOKUP() Case # Rear FP QP Inner QP Outer Roof 1 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 4 0 1 0 0 5 1 1 0 0 Scenario - 250,000 BIW/year $1,500 BIW Cost $1,400 $1,00 $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 12 0 9 6 9 1 18 15 28 7 10 6 21 4 7 4 16 1 4 1 48 19 27 24 40 46 45 42 54 51 2 25 22 29 8 11 52 49 5 8 5 17 2 44 14 20 47 26 2 41 5 50 $900 250 00 50 400 450 500 550 600 650 Mass (lbs)
Scenario - 50,000 BIW/year $4,000 BIW Cost $,500 $,000 $2,500 $2,000 21 128 1946 912 0 6 18 15 48 7 10 27 24 44 7 1 16 41 40 22 25 52 49 6 9 54 51 45 42 229 2047 8 11 55 8 2 17 4414 41 2 26 5 50 $1,500 250 00 50 400 450 500 550 600 650 Mass (lbs) Comparison of Scales 50,000/yr 250,000/yr $4,000 $4,000 BIW Cost $,000 $2,000 0 6 9 4542 12 9 6 181548 5451 121 28 10 727 44 24 71164 1 40 229 8 11 5 8 52 17 19 44 14 46 252 22 49 20 41 47 265 2 50 BIW Cost $,000 $2,000 $1,000 $1,000 1 12 28 10 7 9 6 4 16 1815 0 19 21 1 25 27 4 71 6 9 22 24 4 40 4542 46 48 5249 545129 811 20 5 8 47 521744 14 265 2 50 41 $0 250 50 450 550 650 00 400 500 600 Mass (lbs) $0 250 50 450 550 650 00 400 500 600 Mass (lbs)