International Emissions Scenarios: The Role of Developing Country Participation Geoff Blanford Global Climate Change, EPRI Environment Advisory Meetings San Diego, CA March 17, 29
28 MERGE Results Re-evaluated magnitude of developing country growth Much higher no-policy baseline for CO 2 emissions Major implications for stabilization with limited participation Billion tons C (GtC) 6 5 4 3 2 CCSP Reference Scenarios (27) History (ORNL, MNP 27) New MERGE Baseline IEA Reference Forecast (2) IEA Reference Forecast (25) IEA Reference Forecast (27) Auffhammer & Carson (28) 6 5 4 3 2 Billion tons C (GtC) 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 CCSP 55 ppmv CO2 Stabilization Scenarios CCSP 45 ppmv CO2 Stabilization Scenarios Other Non-Annex B India China World Total History Annex B Emissions 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 1 199 2 21 22 23 2 2 1 1 History New MERGE Baseline 199 2 21 22 23 CO 2 Emissions in China: New Projections Joint work with Richard Richels and Thomas Rutherford 2 Non-Annex B CO 2 Relative to Global Targets
Progress in 29 Global Recession what does it mean? Analysis of specific scenarios with delayed accession of developing countries (Energy Modeling Forum study) Insights into role of non-co 2 gases Relationship between global emission pathways and policy proposals in US 3
Coalition Countries: Ready to Participate Now Annex B OECD Russia Ukraine USA Greater EU Japan Canada Aus/NZ Korea Mexico Turkey 4
Non-Coalition Countries: Delayed Participation Medium-Term Transition: Long-Term Transition: Brazil Russia India China Rest of World - Mid-income countries (e.g. Korea, Mexico) - OPEC countries - Poor countries (e.g. Sub- Saharan Africa) BRIC Group ROW Group 5
27 Total CO 2 Emissions (Energy/Cement) Billion tons CO 2 BRIC Group Brazil Russia India Rest of World 3 25 2 Indonesia Saudi Arabia South Africa Mexico Iran Korea China 15 Rest of Coalition 1 5 USA 6
Baseline Emissions Adjusted for Recession 4 35 No Recession Baseline Billion tons CO 2 3 25 2 15 Non-Coalition 2-year recession 5-year recession Prolonged slowdown Optimistic Pessimistic 1 Coalition Countries 5 199 2 21 22 23 7
What is possible, at what cost, if Coalition countries begin abatement immediately BRIC Group (Brazil, Russia, India, China) begins abatement after 23 Rest of world (ROW) begins abatement after 25 MERGE model used to find least-cost stabilization pathway under these constraints 8
Projected 21 Concentrations for Kyoto GHGs 278 ppmv pre-industrial equilibrium 7 ppbv 27 ppbv. CO 2 392, ppbv CH 4 1,83 ppbv N 2 O 325 ppbv F-gases.1 ppbv (392 ppmv) Extra-equilibrium stock leads to warming Scale reflects atmospheric volume 9
Projected Radiative Forcing in 21 Watts per square meter: Change in heat balance relative to pre-industrial.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 CO 2 CH 4 N 2 O F-gases (.2 W/m 2 ) Target Levels 278 3 35 4 45 5 55 6 65 CO 2 -equivalent concentration in ppmv CO 2 -e 1
Stabilization Targets CO 2 limits implied by residual emissions from non-co 2 gases CO 2 -e concentration (ppmv) Radiative Forcing (W/m 2 ) RF from non- CO 2 gases (W/m 2 ) RF from CO 2 CO 2 -only concentration (ppmv) 21 Levels 448 2.55.72 1.83 392 Target 45 2.6.95 (minimum) 1.65 38 Target 1 55 3.7.95 (minimum) 2.75 465 Target 2 65 4.5.95 (minimum) 3.55 54 11
Global CO 2 in the Optimistic Baseline 7 6 5 Billion tons CO 2 4 3 2 Coalition 1 BRIC ROW 199 2 21 22 23 24 25 12
Optimal Global Stabilization Pathways 7 6 Optimistic Baseline 5 Billion tons CO 2 4 3 54 ppmv CO 2 465 ppmv CO 2 2 Coalition 1 BRIC ROW 199 2 21 22 23 24 25 13
Locked-in Emissions from Non-Participants 7 6 Optimistic Baseline 5 Billion tons CO 2 4 3 2 Coalition 54 ppmv CO 2 465 ppmv CO 2 Infeasible 1 BRIC ROW 199 2 21 22 23 24 25 14
65 CO 2 -e Target is Possible with Delay 7 6 5 $3 / ton CO 2 in 22 1% of Gross World Product by 25 4% max Optimistic Baseline Billion tons CO 2 4 3 54 ppmv CO 2 2 Coalition 1 BRIC ROW 199 2 21 22 23 24 25 15
Optimal Paths w/ Pessimistic Economic Growth 7 6 Billion tons CO 2 5 4 3 Pessimistic Baseline 54 ppmv CO 2 465 ppmv CO 2 2 Coalition 1 BRIC ROW 199 2 21 22 23 24 25 16
Now, 55 CO2-e Target is Possible with Delay 7 6 Billion tons CO 2 5 4 3 Pessimistic Baseline 54 ppmv CO 2 465 ppmv CO 2 2 Coalition 1 BRIC ROW 199 2 21 22 23 24 25 17
However, Requires Drastic Action in Coalition 7 6 $3 / ton CO 2 in 22 Billion tons CO 2 5 4 3 4% of Gross World Product by 25 7% max Pessimistic Baseline 54 ppmv CO 2 465 ppmv CO 2 2 Coalition 1 BRIC ROW 199 2 21 22 23 24 25 18
US CO 2 Emissions in Optimistic Case 7 6 Optimistic Baseline 5 Billion tons CO 2 4 3 Representative US Policies: 5% below 199 in 25 8% below 199 in 25 65 CO 2 -e with Full Participation 65 CO 2 -e with Delayed Participation 2 1 199 2 21 22 23 24 25 19
US CO 2 Emissions in Pessimistic Case 7 6 Pessimistic Baseline 5 Billion tons CO 2 4 3 Representative US Policies: 5% below 199 in 25 8% below 199 in 25 55 CO 2 -e with Delayed Participation 55 CO 2 -e with Full Participation 2 1 199 2 21 22 23 24 25 2
R&D is Still a Good Investment $4 US $ Trillions (discounted NPV through 21) $3 $2 $1 Savings when CCS and nuclear are available Policy Cost for 65 CO2-e with delay $1.1 T USA $.9 T $1. T World $ No Recession Mild Recession Severe Recession No Recession Mild Recession Severe Recession 21
Conclusions Recession has an impact but does not change fundamental realities of the stabilization challenge With delayed participation by developing countries, achieving stabilization at: 65 CO2-e is reasonably possible 55 CO2-e is extremely difficult 45 CO2-e is in the rearview mirror Coalition benefits from incentives for earlier participation and technology adoption in developing world 22