Addressing Climate Change in the MENA Region: a Regional Program Raffaello Cervigni The World Bank May 2009
Key messages 1. Climate change: both a threat and an opportunity for MENA 2. The World Bank and Climate Change in MENA 3. Why a regional program? 4. Expected outcomes 5. Proposed activities 6. Today s conference
Climate Change in MENA: stylized facts
Water availability will decrease 20-30% in most of MENA Multi-model average Percent for the change winter and in run-off summer expected precipitation by 2050 (A1B SRES scenario) Punch line: run-off is projected to drop by 20 to 30% in most of MENA by 2050 Source: Milly et al (2005), published in Nature
while temperature will increase 2-4 degrees Average of global surface temperature from IPCC AOGCM models, A1B SRES scenario Variation in degrees centigrade Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, 2007 Punch line: the average prediction for MENA is of up to 2 degrees increase in the next 15-20 years, and over 4 degrees for the end of the century (the increase is higher for faster emission scenarios)
MENA emissions: small in volume, but high in per capita terms 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Share of global emissions (a) Emissions per capita (b) Emissions per unit of income (b) Notes: (a): as a share of non-annex 1 countries (b): average of non-annex 1 countries =100%
Climate Change as a threat
Run-off decrease will have major impacts on the world s most water-scarce region Actual renewable freshwater resources per capita by region (1000 m^3 / year) Australia/New Zealand Latin America & Caribbean North America Europe & Central Asia Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia & Pacific (& Japan & Koreas) Western Europe South Asia The region is already largely water stressed (<1,000 m3/ year). Middle East & North Africa - 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
MENA depends significantly on agriculture 50 42.9 46.1 40 Middle East & North Africa Middle income Countries 30 20 10 12.2 9.9 0 % of GDP (in 2002) % of rural population (in 2005) Source : WB WDI
..and output potential will decrease Change in agricultural output potential by 2080 (%) -40-35 -30-25 -20-15 -10-5 0 Sub- Saharan Africa Latin America and the Caribbean MENA Average Note: estimates do not include carbon fertilization Morocco Algeria Yemen Asia Industrial Countries Source: Cline W.R. (2007), Global Warming and Agriculture
Sea level rise might affect MENA s engines of growth Impacts on Alexandria Alexandria, Port Said, Damietta and Rosetta all heavily impacted by 0.5m sea-level rise > 2 million people displaced > $35 billion loss of land, property and infrastructure 220,000 jobs gone Incalculable value of historic and cultural assets lost (Prof. M. El Raey, Alexandria University, UNEP 2002)
Low carbon development as an opportunity for MENA
MENA has one of the world s best potential for renewable energy Land areas required to power, through Solar Thermal energy, MENA, the EU-25, and the World
it can greatly benefit from improved air quality.. Cost of outdoor air pollution (% GDP, aveage1990-2004) 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 - MENA EAP SAR ECA LAC SSA
and enjoy fiscal savings from enhanced energy efficiency 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Subsidies as Percent of Government Spending Note: the data refers to 2006 for most of the countries. Iran Libya Syria Egypt Algeria Iraq Kuwait Yemen Saudi Arabia Lebanon UAE Jordan Oman Bahrain Tunisia Morocco Qatar
The World Bank s response
Integration of climate change in World Bank lending Total IBRD, IDA ad Grants in the MENA region (Fy2003 FY2009) Transport, 1,064 Agriculture and Rural Development, 709 Urban Development, 1,425 Social Development, 150 Other lending, 3,591 Water, 1,498 Energy and Mining, 1,678 Annual average: S$ 1 billion
Significant effort on AAAs Some 40 tasks directly or indirectly related to adaptation; and about 30 to mitigation 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 10 15 20 Energy Water MIDDLE EAST AND YEMEN MOROCCO EGYPT Agriculture & Rural Development Transport Urban Development Environment TUNISIA ALGERIA IRAN SYRIA JORDAN WEST BANK& GAZA KUWAIT Multisector DJIBOUTI Adaptation Mitigation Adaptation Mitigation
MENA and the CIFs Clean Technology Fund Egypt Morocco Regional Solar Plan Pilot Program for Climate Resilience Yemen (subject to TF committee s endorsement)
For more, visit us online! http://www.worldbank.org/mena/climatechange
Why a regional program?
Limited awareness on climate change impacts on growth Indicate the level of awareness in your country on climate change and its potentially negative effects on economic growth 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Policy makers General public Moderate, low or very low High or very high
Low carbon agenda more supported by policy makers than the general public Indicate the extent to which projects and programs to promote energy efficiency and renewable energy are perceived to be: 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Policy makers General public Very ineffective, Somewhat ineffective or Average Somewhat effective or Very effective
Perceived benefits of a regional program Share of respondents who rank high the following benefits: 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Increased awareness Identification of technical solutions to enhance climate resilience Building local capacity Advocacy vis-a-vis high level decision makers Identification of technical solutionsfor low carbon growth Addressing transboundary issues
Regional climate change TA program US$ 5 million pledges from EC, Italy (confirmed), DFID: potential other donor Objectives: knowledge sharing on technical and policy options for adaptation and mitigation Strengthening regional centers of excellence to assist in project preparation, networking outside MENA Advocacy, awareness raising, consensus building Timetable: Launch: May 2009 Inception: FY10 Pilot phase of 3 years
Proposed outcomes Awareness raising (1) Policy makers and stakeholder are more aware and knowledgeable about: risks linked to climate variability and change, opportunities for low-carbon growth and the related national benefits Improved policy framework (2) MENA countries have developed options to improve policy, institutional or regulatory frameworks that support enhanced climate resilience and low carbon development Project opportunities (3) MENA countries have identified project ideas and programmatic approaches for both adaptation and low carbon growth
Proposed activities Adaptatoin Assessment and analysis of climate change scenarios and impacts Development of tools and guidelines for strengthening the climate resilience of water management and other key vulnerable sectors: - investment programming - policy framework Innovative financial mechanisms to deal with climate variability Low Carbon Analytical and technical work to support large-scale development of renewable energy. Analysis of, and awareness raising on, the national benefits of pursuing a low-carbon development path. Technical assistance in the development of programmatic (sectorwide) carbon finance operations Dissemination and outreach Seminars, conferences, workshops, publications, and targeted training activities Implementation of this component would be targeted at different stakeholder groups
Resources Sources Commitment Amount US$ Equivalent* Status Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (IMOFA) $ 3,000,000 $ 3,000,000 Confirmed European Commission 1,500,000 $ 1,942,200 Confirmed UK Department for Internation Development 1,000,000 $ 1,484,600 To be confirmed World Bank (Regional Climate Change Budget) $ 600,000 $ 600,000 IMOFA - Externally Funded Staffing Program $ 430,000 To be confirmed TOTAL $ 7,456,800 * Based on exchange rates of December 8, 2008
Linkage with other initiatives Sustainable Med (MENA Med countries) Objectives: Trans-boundary pollution reduction improved water resources management biodiversity conservation Five years, US$ 50 million GEF financing Gulf Environmental Tech Assistance Program Objectives: supporting development and conservation of the Gulf waterway Activities: knowledge development and investment promotion for environmental improvements
Our conference today Presentation of the program Share information on country-level views and activities on: Adaptation Low Carbon Discussing priorities for work plan of first year