NUCLEAR ENERGY PERSPECTIVE IN INDONESIA Paper Presented at The 8 th Nuclear Energy Symposium Tokyo, 15-16 March 2004 National Nuclear Energy Agency of Indonesia (BATAN)
INTRODUCTION
THE ARCHIPELAGO OF INDONESIA Malaysia The Philippines Australia
ENERGY PICTURE Diminishing resource vs demand increase Resources and users are far away in different islands Uneven distribution of population, high rate of population growth Low energy consumption per capita, lowest in Asean, Indonesia still expects revenue from oil and gas sale Indonesia to prepare long term, sustainable development Environmental issue resulted from fossil fuel burning
GDP PER CAPITA VS ELECTRICAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA 3,500 3,000 Malaysia GDP/cap (US$95) 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Indonesia India Vietnam Thailand Indonesia (1997) including autoproducers Philippines China Pakistan 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 kwh/cap
GRAND ENERGY STRATEGY Optimizing energy supply, adopting energy mix policy Optimizing the development of energy resources Optimizing the energy allocation for industry feed material that produce value added Optimizing the energy allocation for export to optimize the foreign exchange revenue
CHANGE OF GOVERNMENT AND PARLIAMENT ATTITUDE TO NUCLEAR ENERGY Both Government and Parliament consider the possible utilization of nuclear energy to help solve the energy problem in form of energy mix scenario Both Government and Parliament recognize that nuclear energy is proven to environmentally friendly and able to provide support to long term sustainable development The objective of adopting nuclear energy is to secure the the supply of electrical energy, conserve strategic oil and gas, and protect the environment
FUTURE ENERGY BUSINESS Energy is important to develop economy and prosperity The current energy consumption per capita is still very low Population still grows, esp. in rural areas The current average citizen s access to electrical energy is still low All clearly indicate the future high energy growth rate in Indonesia
NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY Securing continuity of energy supply for domestic use at price affordable to public Enhancing the life quality of public Stimulating economic growth Reserving adequate supply of oil and gas for export, thus yielding in higher foreign exchange revenue
ENERGY POLICY MEASURES Diversification to maximize and economize the energy supply, curb excessive hydrocarbon resource use, reduce the dependence on few types of fuel, and ultimately replace it with other available fuel resource Intensification to increase and expand exploration Conservation to economize energy production and use Energy pricing to formulate energy price based on its economic value by taking into account environmental cost Use of clean energy technology to support environment protection toward sustainable development
CURRENT SITUATION OF ENERGY SECTOR
HYDROCARBON FUEL USE DILEMMA Domestic need As fuel Electricity genetion Social function Hydrocarbon resource Feed mat l Commercial function Energy for export Foreign exchange revenue Industry product for export
NATIONAL ENERGY PLAN 2000-2005 Population growth Year 2000 : 204 million Year 2025 : 250 million Economy growth Year 2000 : 398 Trillion Rups Year 2025 : 1660 Trillion Rups Life Quality Improvement Primary Energ Supply (2 folds) Year 2000 : 5.962 PJ Year 2025 : 12.221 PJ Electrical Energy Supply (3.5 folds) Year 2000 : 29 GWe Year 2025 : 100 GWe Environmental Issues - Global warming - Air pollution - Acid rains - Health CHOOSE ENERGY OPTIONS OPTIMALLY, WISELY ENVIRONMENT INFRASTRUCTURE ENERGY RESOURCES SOCIO-CULTURAL GEOPOLITICS ECONOMY FOSSIL FUEL NEW AND RENEWABLE ENERGY OIL COAL GAS ENERGY RELLYING ON NATURE NUCLEAR HYDRO & MICROHYDRO SOLAR, WIND, BIOMASS, GEOTERMAL ENERGY RELLYING ON TECHNOLOGY From: Comprehensive Assessment of Different Energy Source for Electricity Generation in Indonesia, 2002.
WORLD GEOTHERMAL YR MW EUROPE 1997 2002 2007 871 1058 1208 YR MW 1997 2849 ASIA 2002 3977 2007 5327 NORTH AMERICA YR 1997 2002 2007 MW 2940 2629 2535 YR MW AFRICA 1997 2002 2007 46 46 46 INDONESIA YR MW WORLD 1997 2002 8,055 9,802 2007 12,093 Prospects Developed Fields YR MW AUSTRALIA / NZ 1997 2002 2007 358 519 699 LATIN AMERICA YR 1997 2002 2007 MW 991 1573 2278 Map of the world showing installed and forecasted geothermal capacity in 1997, in 2002 and 2007. In 2007, because of its large resource base, Indonesia could have approximately 20% of the world s installed capacity
TOTAL FOSSIL FUEL PRODUCTION (PJ) 4000 1 1 PJ PJ = = 175,074 175074 BOE BOE 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Coal 1634 1898 2090 2666 3084 3539 Oil 3026 1877 1290 1065 1055 1055 Gas 2625 3015 3433 3292 3343 3739
TOTAL FINAL ENERGY DEMAND Years 1997 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Manufacturing 1371 1297 1535 1949 2413 2992 3678 Agriculture, Construction and Mining 132 133 148 166 184 204 221 Transportation 878 927 1048 1208 1391 1617 1871 Household 1395 1445 1543 1626 1708 1798 1903 Services 252 268 291 324 352 395 473 Grand total 4028 4070 4564 5272 6048 7007 8146
CRITICAL ENERGY ISSUES
CURRENT ISSUES FOSSIL FUEL DOMESTIC USE VERSUS FOREIGN EXCHANGE REVENUE RAPID DEPLETION OF FOSSIL FUEL RESERVES, POOR DISCOVERY RATE OF NEW RESERVES WHICH SOON CHANGES THE STATUS OF OIL EXPORTING TO IMPORTING COUNTRY PRESSURE TO REDUCE ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION (CONTRIBUTED BY FOSSIL BURNING) BETTER LOOK AT THE NUCLEAR ENERGY, WITH GOOD DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY
CUMMULATIVE ENERGY TRADE, PJ 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 PJ -1,000-2,000-3,000-4,000-5,000-6,000 Coal Oil Gas -7,000 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024
ANNUAL ENERGY EXPORT-IMPORT (PJ) 3000 1 PJ = 175074 BOE 2000 1000 0-1000 -2000-3000 -4000-5000 1 PJ = 175074 BOE -6000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Coal 1324 1422 1549 1762 1926 2086 Oil 394-581 - 1599-2551 - 3425-4785 Gas 1457 1528 1496 1426 1329 1329
NUCLEAR ENERGY OPTION
FACTS The economic crisis contributes to the drop of previous plan to erect of NPP. Recently government reiterates its recognition of nuclear energy as one of the options to developing and observing energy mix in. There are still many to be prepared to realize the NPP (technology, energy policy, legislation regulations, financing scheme, private sector role, public acceptance and environment)
COMPREHENSIVE ASSESSMENT OF DIFFERENT ENERGY SOURCES FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN INDONESIA (CADES) PURPOSE: TO SUPPORT DECISION MAKERS INVOLVING INTERDISCIPLINARY EXPERTS IN COOPERATION WITH IAEA TO PROVIDE CLEAR PICTURE OF ENERGY DEMAND NEEDED TO SUPPORT SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT TO PROVIDE SECURITY OF ENERGY SUPPLY FOR LONG PERION OF TIME
CADES (continued) COMPREHENSIVE ASSESSMENT OF DIFFERENT ENERGY SOURCES FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN INDONESIA (CADES) TO FIND BALANCE BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR THE WHOLE TERRITORY OF R.I. CONSTITUTES THE BASIS FOR LONG TERM ENERGY PLANNING (TILL 2025) TO VALIDATE THE ENERGY MIX POLICY
0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 WASTES FROM POWER PLANTS AND ITS FUEL PREPARATION Million tonnes per GWe yearly SOx & NOx Ash/PM10 Gas sweetening Radioactive (HLW) Toxic materials 0.1 0 Coal Oil Natural Wood Nuclear Solar gas PV Source: IAEA, 1997
IMPORTANT RESULTS FROM CADES FEASIBLE INTRODUCTION OF NPP TO THE NATIONAL GRID FOR JAVA-BALI IN 2016 A POSSIBLE EARLIER INTRODUCTION WHEN NEW, SMALL REACTORS PROVE TO OPERATE
ENERGY MIX SITUATI0N, 2000-2005 PJ 7000 1 PJ = 175,074 BOE 1 PJ = 175074 BOE 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Coal 310 477 541 904 1158 1453 Oil 2632 2458 2889 3616 4480 5841 Gas 1168 1486 1937 1866 2014 2410 Renewable 1852 1870 1993 2088 2164 1995 Nuclear 0 0 0 36 270 530
ENERGY MIX SITUATI0N, 2000-2005 600 500 400 Advanced type of NPP, a total of 6.08 GWe in 2025 from nuclear The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. biomass geothermal hydro small NPP TWh 300 200 100 med NPP large NPP gas diesel f-oil coal 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
FINAL ENERGY DEMAND (by fuel) 9,000 8,000 7,000 PJ 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1997 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Non-commercial Feedstock Motor fuel Fossil substitutable Electricity
MILESTONES OF FIRST NPP CONSTRUCTION Peraturan Perizinan selesai OL 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 PJ Pre-FS Government decision URD-BIS Bidding? Licensing Licensing Document Construction Test Site data collect. & Evaluation PSAR Operation "CA"- completion "Socialization "Support to Licensing Nego Contract? 1st NPP Utility Identification
PREPARATION TOWARD NPP OPERATION
ROADMAPS TO FOLLOW INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT STRENGTHENING INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION PUBLIC EDUCATION HUMAN RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT COMPREHENSIVE RE-ASSESSMENT FINDING VIABLE FINANCING SCHEME RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT IN VARIOUS FIELDS ETC.
STATUS OF INTERNATIONAL TREATIES AND CONVENTION IN NUCLEAR ENERGY No. INTERNATIONAL TREATIES AND AGREEMENTS STATUS 1. Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) - Safeguard Agreement with IAEA - Additional Protocol to Safeguards Ratified; Act No. 8 Th. 1978 Signed, already in force Signed, already in force 2. Convention on Physical Protection of Nuclear Material Ratified; Pres. Decree No. 49/1986 3. Convention on Early Notification of A Nuclear Accident Ratified; Pres. Decree No. 81/1993 4. Convention on Assistance in the Case of a Nuclear Accident or Radiological Emergency Ratified; Pres. Decree No. 82/1993 5. Treaty on the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon Free Zone Ratified; Act No. 9/1997 6. Convention on Nuclear Safety Ratified; Pres.Decree No.106/2001 7. Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) On process to be retified 8. Joint Convention on the Safety of Spent Fuel Management and the Safety of Radioactive Waste Management Signed, not in force 9. Protocol to Amend the Vienna Convention Signed, not in force 10. Supplementary Compensation for Nuclear Damage Signed, not in force 11. Bilateral cooperation and supply agreement(s) Signed, in force
FUEL CYCLE BEING REVIEWED LWR Uranium Saving Spent LWR Fuel Natural Uranium On-site Storage CANDU AFR Storage DUPIC Fuel Fab Spent CANDU/DUPIC Fuel Permanent Disposal No Disposal DUPIC PWR once-through CANDU once-through On-site Storage Permanent Disposal Less Disposal * DUPIC : Direct use of spent PWR fuel in CANDU reactors termed in 1991 joint research meeting among KAERI, AECL & US DOS
CONCLUSIONS 1. With the burden to provide prosperity to more than 220 million people, raising them from lowest electrical energy consumption in Asean region due to limited energy resource and access to electrical energy into a better consumption and access, Indonesia has to search for new and renewable energy resources. Owing to its non-polluting, environmentally friendly nature and cheap electrical energy yield, the nuclear energy has been considered officially as options to share in the future energy mix scenario.
CONCLUSIONS, continued 2. Based on recent study the first nuclear power plants are to be introduced in 2016 at the Muria Peninsula, Central Java which will be added to the national grid existing in Java and Bali. 3. There are still many things to be accomplished, namely the development of infrastructure, strengthening international cooperation, public education, etc. 4. In essence the major hurdles to realizing nuclear energy generation in Indonesia are in the form two things, namely the public acceptance and the viable financing scheme.
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