Studying Populations I

What is Population Geography? GEOG 247 Cultural Geography Studying Populations I Prof. Anthony Grande Hunter College CUNY AFG 2015 Population Geography: The study of the spatial and ecological aspects of a population (geodemography). Focuses on the number, composition, and distribution of humans in relation to variations in the conditions of earth environment. Regional variations of physical characteristics and human adaptation to them, allow for unique cultural characteristics to come about and evolve over time Population Analysis Distribution Density Make up: Age and gender Health Fertility Mortality Mobility/Migration These aspects are looked at spatially and within a cultural context (region, diffusion, ecology, interaction and landscape). We do a spatial analysis of populationrelated issues. Demographic Regions: Population Distribution and Density Key terms: Population density: Measure of population per unit area (e.g., per square mile). Demographic region: A formal region based on the single trait of population density. Carrying capacity: Maximum number of people who can be supported in a given area. Population cohort: A group of people unified by a common characteristic, such as age, ethnicity, national origin, belief systems. World Population: Distribution and Density 4 This map is based on population density per square mile NOT by political unit Earth as a Home for People 50% of the world s people live on 5% of the land. 90% of the world s people live on 10% of the land. 95% of the world s people live on 40% of the land. Conversely, 60% of the land is virtually empty and just has 5% of the world s people. Earth as a Home for People http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/ North American 5% European 15% 7% in scattered clusters worldwide South Asian 55% SE Asian East Asian Over 80% of the world s people live in relatively high density. All need food, water, resources and space. 5 6 All must try to get along with each other. 1

Population Cartogram Factors that Encourage Settlement and Higher Population Densities A A B C B C COMPARE A. US vs. Canada B. Tunisia vs. Libya C. Taiwan vs. Australia China and India are home to 37% of the world s people. C 7 Population Ecology: A combination of natural factors creates conditions for the concentration of people. People adapt to local conditions, creating a cultural identity. Like what? 1. Landforms (size, topography, altitude, situation) 2. Climate 3. Soil fertility 4. Natural vegetation and wildlife 5. Water supply 6. Mineral and energy resources 7. Absence of natural hazards 8. Absence of disease and pests 8 Factors that Encourage Settlement and Higher Population Densities 1. Landforms 2. Climate 3. Soil fertility 4. Natural vegetation/wildlife 5. Water supply 6. Mineral/energy resources 7. Absence of natural hazards 8. Absence of disease/pests Including : colonization urbanization industrialization social services perception of a better life political expediencies All 8 are modified by levels of technology and forms of economy. All 8 are influenced by historical circumstances and cultural parameters. 9 KEY FACTOR: Ample food supplies. First cities developed in areas with an annual surplus of food. Soil Fertility vs. Population Density 10 Habitat Decisions and Landscape Development 7+ billion people need food, water, shelter, resources and living space PLUS a place for their waste. People are influenced by external factors. People have a perception of what the environment has to offer. People create mental images and mental maps. People make choices; people make changes. 11 Habitat Decisions and Landscape Development People don t like extreme conditions. In the lower latitudes people tend to settle at higher elevations where there is less heat, humidity and insects. In the middle and higher latitudes people tend to stay at lower elevations where it is warmer and flatter. Most people are clustered near the sea (coastal locations) for mobility, food and flat land, especially when interior areas are inhospitable or difficult to access. Population densities may have an adverse affect on the environment, as deforestation and soil depletion. 12 2

Demographic Regions: Patterns of Natality and Mortality Key Terms: Birth rate (BR): Annual births per 1,000 population Death rates (DR): Annual deaths per 1,000 persons in the population. Total fertility rate (TFR): Number of children the average woman will bear during her reproductive lifetime (age 15-49 yrs). Zero population growth (ZPG): Replacement rate. Number of births = number of deaths; only two children per couple survive to adulthood. Population explosion: The rapid increase in population over a short period of time caused by a rapid decrease in the death rate. Population Interactions We need data to evaluate a population and assess their interactions. Numbers of people. Concentration of people. Other data to help assess a situation as. 14 Population Dynamics things we need to know about a population: 1. Where are they found? 2. What are their growth rates? 3. What is their density or grouping pattern? 4. What cultural parameters do we need to be aware of, as economic well-being, agricultural practices, religious beliefs, diet, access to/use of technology, including medical. 5. What are the urban/rural ratios? 6. What movements are present (external and internal)? 7. How do the numbers relate to the resource base and will it put a strain on the area s carrying capacity? 15 TERMS Carrying capacity: the ability of the land to support life. It is directly related to resource base (food-water-shelter) which composes a habitat. The quality of a habitat can be assessed. The better the quality of a habitat, the more life it can support. Good quality habitats will attract people (it is a pull factor). People will then decide how to get the most out of their habitat. (Human imprint = Culture) BUT, the quality of good habitat may deteriorate over time. 16 TERMS Carrying capacity s limits are reached if too many people use what is available and the resource base is taxed to its limit. Once carrying capacity is reached, the quality of habitat diminishes and an area is said to be overpopulated. OVERPOPULATION: Too many people for the resource base. Overpopulation is NOT the same as a population explosion. 17 Can the earth support its fast-growing population? Does it have the capacity to keep up with a population s demands on its resources? Do the cultural attributes of a population affect a local area s carrying capacity? How can we tell? Need data. DEMOGRAPHY: statistical study of a population. However, there is a problem with the data. Accuracy of national censuses and world organizations varies. 18 3

J-Curve: Historic 7 billion mark reached in late 2011 7 billion mark reached in late 2011 What caused world population to increase dramatically? Better medical practices. Understanding causes of illness and the transmission of disease. Improved sanitation. Better agricult l methods (more food available). Improved food supplies (transportation and storage). Knowledge of nutrition. 19 20 and Projections Oldest human fossils are carbon dated to +/ 200,000 yrs 1 AD: 250 mil people on earth 1650: 500 mil = 1,650 yrs to double 1830: 1 billion = 180 yrs to double 1925: 2 billion = 95 yrs to add 1 billion 1960: 3 billion = 35 yrs to add 1 billion 1975: 4 billion = 15 yrs to add 1 billion 1986: 5 billion = 11 yrs to add 1 billion 2000: 6 billion = 14 yrs to add 1 billion 2011: 7 billion = 11 yrs to add 1 billion historic 1. World population growth has been fast since the mid-1900s. 2. It has been regionally uneven. 3. Estimates are based on current growth rates and they change over time. estimated 2000 2050 21 22 World s Most Populous Countries 2011 and 2050 Malthusian Theory In 1798 Thomas Malthus postulated that unless population growth was slowed (by self-control, war or natural disaster), its rate of growth would soon exceed the rate of food production (exceed carrying capacity). He predicted that people would not be able to feed themselves and widespread poverty, hunger, sickness and war would follow. WHY? Because population tends to double in size quickly, while agriculture grows at a steady rate. http://www.prb.org/pdf13/2013-population-data-sheet_eng.pdf Link to 2013 world population data tables from Population Reference Bureau. His prediction did not take into account new technologies that have allowed people to produce more food. 24 4

Demographic Transition Homeostatic Plateaus The J-curve becomes an S-curve when a population reaches carrying capacity. It returns to a J-curve when new technologies allow people to live longer. 25 How long can this go on? What will be the affect of globalization? The J-curve turns into an S-curve every time something occurs to either increase or slow down the death rate (changes existing equilibrium). 26 Demographic Transition Model Comparison of BR and DR by Economic Development 1. Agrarian 2. Industrialization 3.Urban/ 4.Highly 5. Old 27 society established economic developed population 28 Birth Rate and Death Rate Birth Rate and Death Rate BIRTH RATE DEATH RATE https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/t he-world-factbook/ 29 BIRTH RATE Annual number of live births /1000 pop Influenced by several factors: age and sex structure, customs and family size expectations, population policies High birth rates ( 30) characteristic of agric l, rural countries in which a high proportion of the female pop. is young Low birth rates (< 18) characteristic of industrialized, urbanized countries Transitional rates (18-30) some developing and newly industrializing areas. Subject to change - medical, economic and cultural factors DEATH RATE Annual deaths /1000 population Once varied with levels of economic development. Also influenced by the age structure of a country s population + illness + civil unrest. Dramatic reductions in in lessdeveloped countries; access to technology; enhances other problems. Reduction does not extend to infant or maternal mortality rates. 30 5

Infant Mortality Total Fertility Rate Infant Mortality Rate Ratio of deaths of infants aged 1 yr or under/1000 live births Significant declines in modern times (better health services) Maternal Mortality Rate Deaths /100,000 live births Single greatest health disparity between developed and developing countries Vast majority of maternal deaths in developing world are preventable 31 TFR: Total Fertility Rate. The number of children borne by child-bearing age women (15-49 yrs old). The younger and larger a population, the higher the TFR and the higher growth potential especially if infant mortality rates are reduced. Stability TFR = 2.1 Bulgaria TFR = 1.5 Niger TFR = 7.0 ZPG: Zero population growth is considered to be the replacement rate (statistically it is 2.1 children per parents.) 32 TFR Projections through 2050 Percent of Population UNDER 15 years of age 33 34 Annual Rate of Increase Projected Population Change 2010-2100 35 From US News and World Report article using UN data, Oct., 2014 36 6