ITF Transport Outlook 2015 Freight Model 05 May 2015, Brussels
Intergovernmental Organisation linked to OECD 54 member countries Think Tank Policy analysis and research Data and statistics Annual Summit Forum for Ministers, industry The Davos of Transport"
3 Objective Assess future international freight flows and related CO2 emissions under: Future international trade configurations Available transport infrastructure (2010) Underlying projections used in the model Trade projections: OECD Economics Department GDP: OECD Population: UNHABITAT Model description available at: http://www.internationaltransportforum.org/jtrc/discussionpapers/dp201421.pdf
Model framework International Trade (world regions)* Centroids Mode split Weight model Assignment to routes by mode Model by commodity type (19 classes) Outputs: International trade in weight by OD pair International trade tonne-km by OD pair, mode and link in the network CO 2 emissions Model steps sequence * Source: OECD Economics Directorate
Production/consumption centroids Formulation Based on Population density, regional GDP and minimum distance between centroids (500 km)
Network model Formulation Infrastructure and routes a) Road (highways or main roads) b) Rail (station, network) c) Sea (ports, routes) d) Air (airports, commercial flights) Differential speeds by mode, infrastructure and continent Routable O-D network assembled Links between modes and to centroids Includes dwelling times between modes Source: ITF International Freight model OpenStreetMap, OpenFlights, Sea Project, UCL
7 Model validation for baseline scenario 2010 Variable ITF Model estimates Available statistics Source Maritime international trade volume [million tonnes] 8 372 8 408 UNCTAD review of Maritime Transport Air international trade volume [million tonnes] 34 31.8 ICAO Maritime international trade related freight [billion tonne-km] 60 053 65 599 UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport Air international trade related freight [billion tonne-km] 191 158 ICAO Maritime international trade related CO2 emissions [million tonnes] 779 644 870 IEA IMO Sources: UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport 2012; ICAO Annual Report of the Council, 2012; IEA CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion Statistics; IMOGHG Study 2009, International Maritime Organization.
Global freight volumes and CO 2 emissions by corridor North Pacific route Intra-North America +344% +263% +270% +191% North Atlantic route Intra- Europe +280% +195% Mediterranean and Caspian Sea +715% +689% +406% +315% Intra-Asia +403% +332% +374% +273% North Pacific route South Pacific route Intra- South America South Atlantic route Intra- Africa Indian Ocean route Oceania Freight volume in billion tonne-km CO 2 Emissions in million tonnes
Domestic share of global freight 10% of international trade takes place within domestic borders
Domestic share of trade-related CO 2 emissions 10% 30% of international trade takes place within domestic borders of total traderelated CO 2 is emitted here
11 Main policy value from utilisation of the model The model produces globally coherent estimates of freight flows and emissions by for each link of the network, without considering capacity constraints Directly interesting outcomes for each existing link and node: is the required freight capacity available? New investment needed, or just better efficiency? for each corridor: are the emissions and modal shares in line with policy goals? The model also allows simulation of scenarios where new pieces of infrastructure are inserted in the networks travel times (or border times) are changed Improve capacity management Invest in missing links Increase vehicle utilisation
12 Next steps Work with regional entities for a) Validation / inclusion of attributes for links (speed, capacity), nodes (capacity, namely for intermodal nodes ports, stations or airports), and border crossings b) Improve network design, either maintaining spatial layout or by adding new arcs, network bottlenecks c) Simulate policy relevant scenarios Better routing (beyond time based) a) Possibly include transport costs in mode and route choice (if reliable data available)
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