Science and Innovation in Renewable Energy Technologies to Support Climate Policies Scientific Support for the transition to a low carbon economy, Copenhagen 6.3.2012 Kai Sipilä VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland
2 Drivers and Content OECD countries should decrease GHG emissions by more than 85 % by 2050. EU Low Carbon Road Map 2050 EU SET-Plan and 8 industrial initiatives will accelerate the development and market introduction of new technologies and efficient use of energy. Volume up to 65 B. EERA European Energy Research Alliance for RTD partnership EU policies and the 2020 targets will increase the market for renewable energy sources, case bioenergy. Ambitious target for 20 % RES in transport in Finland and 38 % RES. Example of successful PPP co-operation with strong RTDD VTT has a strong focus in low carbon and smart energy, some examples will highlight RTDD for the LC transition The 2020+ challenges much more ambitious
3 VTT Group in brief Turnover 292 M (2010) Personnel 3,167 (1.1.2011) Customer sectors Biotechnology, pharmaceutical and food industries Electronics Energy ICT Real estate and construction Machines and vehicles Services and logistics Forest industry Process industry and environment Focus areas of research Applied materials Bio- and chemical processes Energy Information and communication technologies Industrial systems management Microtechnologies and electronics Services and the built environment Business research VTT s operations Research and Development Strategic Research Business Solutions IP Business Group Services VTT s companies VTT Expert Services Ltd (incl. Labtium Ltd, Enas Ltd) VTT Ventures Ltd VTT International Ltd VTT Memsfab Ltd
4 Bioenergy and biorefinary concepts Fuel harvesting and processing Combustion and gasification Biorefinary solutions Biofuels for transport Combined heat and power (CHP) Solutions for waste to energy Energy systems and smart grids Power grid assessment tools Optimization of energy production storage and use Risk and security assessment Model based analysis for technology scenario Analysis for climate change mitigation Energy systems VTT s R&D service portfolio on energy Towards low carbon technologies and society Plant life assessment Materials ageing and performance Structural integrity Condition and life-cycle monitoring Component technology Wind power Solutions for cold climate Modelling and experimental operations Solutions for grid connection Innovative renewables Solutions for fuel cells Intelligent solutions for photovoltaic Small and medium size CHP Advanced energy solutions for: Transport Industry Society and housing Energy technologies Clean fossil energy Conceptual CCS studies Oxyfuel in coal boilers Advanced materials Engine power plants Emission control Nuclear Operational safety analysis Structural integrity and safety Nuclear power plant licensing support Nuclear waste management Advanced nuclear fission technologies
5 FUTURE ENERGY SYSTEMS, MARKETS AND SCENARIOS Focus on the whole energy chain drivers, markets, products & solutions, technologies in various scenarios Development of new energy technologies and infrastructures Development of energy and technology markets Future energy, climate and innovation policies Green growth strategies and visions 2020-2050, LC road map
6 Interesting Scenario Study published Source: CEESA report 2011
9.3.2012 7 IPCC and Renewable Energy Visions (SRREN) Source: www.ipcc.ch
Global Biomass Potential Primary energy (EJ) A considerable potential of low risk biomass sources has been assessed Source: Adapted from Dornburg et al., 2008 and Bauen et al., 2009, and supplemented with data from IEA, 2010c. Biomass for biofuel production (65 EJ) could come entirely from residues, wastes, and sustainably grown energy crops Source: IEA Technology Road Map for Biofuels, 2011 OECD/IEA 2011
IEA Biofuel Roadmap: Vision Final energy (EJ) Global biofuel supply grows from 2.5 EJ today to 32 EJ in 2050 Biofuels share in total transport fuel increases from 2% today, to 27% in 2050 In the longer term, diesel/kerosene type biofuels are particularly important to decarbonize heavy transport modes Large scale deployment of advanced biofuels will be vital to meet the roadmap targets OECD/IEA 2011
10 Global Energy Visions 2050 The challenges are approached from global viewpoint Finnish technology solutions emphasized Whole energy chain covered: energy conversion, enduse, transmission and distribution technologies Energy system and economic modelling utilised as tools in scenarios describing alternative energy futures presented in the book Dozens of scientists from different technology areas at VTT involved Collaboration with Finnish experts on economics World economy scenarios constructed at Government Institute for Economic Research (VATT) Development of Russian economy and energy sector investigated by Bank of Finland Contact: Tiina Koljonen, VTT
11 VTT s low carbon Finland 2050 project to study the role of accelerated RI on cost-effective low carbon pathways The alternative low carbon pathways were structured for different industrial and community structures with different scenarios for new technology developments The work gathered VTT s multidisciplinary expertise on new technology development, technology foresight, and energy system modelling Collaboration with Government Institute for Economic Research in Finland to study the impacts of low carbon pathways on Finland s economy New national funded study: Low Carbon Finland 2050 platform co-ordinated by VTT Scientific work provided by engineers, economists, forest scientists, geologists, etc. Collaboration with policy makers, industries, RI financing organisations With accelerated RI followed by successful market introduction ~90 % GHG emission reduction compared to the 1990 level was achieved in the assessments
12 Renewables and nuclear will play the major role in the Finland s future energy system Transition to a low carbon society with enhanced RI will increase the shares of all the renewable energy sources Bioenergy will dominate RES in Finland
13 Transition to a low carbon society leads to electrification of the energy system Finland s electricity system will highly diversified both in the Base and the RI scenarios In the RI scenario, investments on smart grids will enhance investments on distributed energy sources Finland could also export low carbon electricity to Europe, if implementation of new technologies is accelerated
14 Roadmap for implementation of CCS in Finland 20 First commercial CCS plants? Installed CCS capacity (Mt CO 2 ) 10 First CCS Demonstration plants in EU? 3rd period in EU ETS begins CCS directive implemented - CHP plants - Cond. power plants - Pulp and paper - First pipeline network - Cement and lime - Iron and steel Bio-CCS (?) 100 ktoe/ BTL ~ 20 kt/a CO2 CCS (fossil) -Oil refineries -BtL plants 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Contact: Antti Arasto, VTT
15 Challenge of Renewable Energy in Transport Binding target 10% by 2020 in EU Directive Oil is the fuel of choice for 98% of motorised transportation today. Given a projected 3-fold rise in travel demand to 2050, average CO 2 emissions per kilometer must be cut by two thirds just to stay even The transport sector may pose the greatest challenge to meaningful CO 2 emissions reduction of any energy sector. Combination of energy efficiency, next generation biofuels and electric cars, all combinations are needed. Some examples of new business opportunities of in VTT TransEco programme and next generation biofuels in Finland 20 % RES by 2020. Contact: Nils-Olof Nylund, VTT
16 BIOFUELS - 20 % RES in transport by 2020 in Finland The Biofuel Chain is Integrated to Existing Industries Farm Refinery products Waste Producer (Neste Oil in production) Wood PYRO Etanolix Bio oil Site HDO FCC Chemicals UPM Boiler Dehydration Terminal Helsinki, 3 September 2009 3
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18 European Targets to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions - role of renewable energy by 2020 - T corresponds to the transport sector, H heat and E electricity
Is biomass availability sufficient? (220 Mtoe) Gross inland consumption Table 7 a, 7 Final energy consumption 20 Mtoe 227 TWh Table 11 Table 12 80 Mtoe 45 Mtoe
20 Conclusions & Recommendations RI is an essential part to support climate policies, how to get more innovative and radical results implemented to market - PPP Transition to low carbon society requires multidisciplinary platforms for executing and implementing ambitious policies and strategies. Innovative 2050 scenarios are effective tools for communication Transport sector has the challenge - Given a projected 3-fold rise in travel demand to 2050, average CO 2 emissions per kilometer must be cut by two thirds just to stay even. Call for radical innovations The EU Set Plan is a powerful new tool to accelerate RTD&D and effective PP partnership, clear additional funding needed. EERA. Without strong international collaboration the 2050 challenges are unrealistic, large variety of national, technology and business solutions.