Drought and Resource Conflict as a Development Agenda; A Case of the Karamojong Cluster Peter Gathuru Richard Grahn African Union / Interafrican Bureau for Animal Resources 1 February 2005
Profile of the Karamojong Cluster (KC) Description of the area that is Karamojong Cluster Images Arid and semi-arid conditions and implication. Predominance of pastoralism (transhumant) Food deficit insecurity Physical insecurity
Images From Karamojong Cluster
Seasonal Migration in Wet periods (Adapted from Soper, 1985)
Seasonal Migrations In Dry Periods Adapted from Soper, 1985)
Cattle raids and rainfall: Kenya/Uganda 2003 60 50 40 30 20 Rainfall (mm) Cattle raids 10 0 Jan Feb Mar April May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec (IBAR unpublished data) Raids seem to come in two peaks, one during January following the short rains which normally perform fairly poorly the second is towards the end of the dry season in April and May - this is time when hardship is most acute and before grass has regrown July and August are Turkana ritual months with good pasture
The Inter-annual drought cycle (Conflicts at Turkwell - FEWS 2004)
Typology of drought-exacerbated conflict in KC Inter-pastoral conflict Ethnic Nationalism and Territoriality Land, Territorial Borders Conflicts. Conflict over access and control of grazing fields within territorial control of another ethnic group Conflict over access and control water points deemed to be within the territorial control of another group Livestock raiding as herders seek to restock animals Pastoralists and others Conflict between pastoralists and government as pastoralists seek to enter protected areas (eg. Kidepo N.P. in Uganda, Southern Turkana N.R., Nasolot GR) Conflict between pastoralists and settled farmers (eg. Pokot and Luhyua in Transnozia)
Impacts of drought-exacerbated conflict in the KC No go areas (or No mans Land), Increased or unusual patterns of mobility. Reduced household Resource Base. Heightened militarization of Conflict Effects of Pastoralists Conflict on Trade and Development
The drought cycle and conflict management Normal stage Forecast conflicts and plan how to avert conflicts. Lobby the government. The drought cycle Alert stage Rehabilitate critical water. Organize negotiations. Brand animals and organize recovery efforts. Emergency stage Support vulnerable groups. Build peace. Recover stolen animals. Enforce Agreements Recovery stage Restock herds. Recover stolen animals. Enforce agreements (IIRR in press) Many (but not all) conflicts in pastoral areas are linked to the seasonal drought cycle and are therefore relatively predictable Traditional elders, security personnel and administrators should be facilitated to negotiate grazing and water rights with one another after trust is built between them Sanctions for everyday crime during the period of drought need to be put in place with local authorities
But There are many other immediate triggers of inter-pastoral conflict which are not related to climate (incitement, elections, violence, military operations, commercial cattle raiding) It is unlikely that conflict resolution linked to the drought cycle will be able to tackle some of the longer-term trends (numbers of animals per household, rangeland reduction and degradation) Conflict resolution linked to the drought cycle should assume that reconciliation achieved between groups is likely to be temporary and strategic rather than long lasting
Drought and Resource Conflict as a Development Agenda Drought exacerbated conflict has certainly hindered development in the Karamojong Cluster More broadly, Development agencies and governments will miss the MDGs in the KC and pastoralist areas because There is still no consensus on how to deliver services to mobile populations All pastoral communities lack voice in policy decisions that affect them Pastoralism as a viable livelihood in Arid and Semi Arid Lands (ASAL) is weakened.
Contradictions and Challenges in Drought and Conflict as a Development Agenda of ASAL Introduction of alternative livelihoods in ASAL need to compliment and not compete with Pastoralism. Famine need not occur in ASAL during drought periods. Poverty, underdevelopment, environmental destruction and conflicts stigma in ASAL. - The poor tend to destroy the environment, constraint their livelihood in ethnic conflicts and in the process constraint development initiatives because they have little choice under the prevailing circumstances. Outsider direct intervention that improves on security, trade, alternative livelihood, new complimentary development initiatives and linkages with outside world might be the right direction in dealing with the situation.