City Applications Modeling Needs & Integrated Modeling air pollut tion Dr. Sarath Guttikunda New Delhi, India Affiliate Asst. Professor Desert Research Institute, te Reno, USA WMO/GURME, Pune, India December 9 th, 2008 time now 5 yrs 10 yrs 20 yrs
Topics Covered Overview of Information required and available for an AQM Demonstration of tools Summary of applications Details from three cities Hyderabad, Ulaanbaatar, Hanoi
Cinderella's Shoe.. Every city is different Understand their sources & priorities One tool doesn t fit all Needs local customization Need stakeholders participation (a lot) Sharing is caring!! Informed decision making is key
Why AQM
Concept of Integration Tropospheric ozone, aerosols, greenhouse gases acid rain Toxics, chemical pollutants soil erosion groundwater contamination industrial wastes urban air pollution agricultural runoff surface water pollution agricultural pesticides vector-borne disease indoor air pollution A. Acharya
Let the Blame Games begin.. Sources are Many.. making a decision is a decision
Why informed decision making is important? Stakeholders that are part of the process are more accepting of a scientifically determined outcome More scientifically rigorous leads to more effective outcomes and easier monitoring of progress Prioritizes costeffective measures Easier to implement - because the Easier to implement - because the systematic approach helps us identify exactly what is needed, and how much
Remember.... Waiting is futile.. Check what s done.. Start doing something
Number of Cities Google Earth
Delhi.. 1975 NH 1 NH 10 NH 24 Gaziabad abad Inner Ring road India Gate CP Noida NH 8 NH 2 Gurgaon Source: Reproduced from Presentations by TheTIS & Harvard University Faridabad
Delhi.. 2000 NH 1 NH 10 NH 24 Gaziabad abad Outer Ring road Inner Ring road India Gate CP Noida NH 8 NH 2 Gurgaon Source: Reproduced from Presentations by TheTIS & Harvard University Faridabad
Delhi.. Today.. NCR NH 1 NH 10 Outer Ring road Inner Ring road CP India Gate NH 24 Ghaziabad Noida NH 8 NH 2 Gurgaon Faridabad Source: Reproduced from Presentations by TheTIS & Harvard University
300 cities >2 m pop by 2025 + thousands of Secondary Cities Health, Visibility, Agriculture, Economy Source: Google Earth & www.demographia.org
Cities: A Problem & Solution Energy Demand Industries Waste Transport Domestic 3 D s Renewables Efficiency Management Buses/NMT Cleaner Fuels
3 D Effect G I Dispe ersion Mod deling D Dialogue among Stakeholders N A S E E Disclaimer: All characters are fictional
air pollution is increasing in the cities tion r pollut air time now
.. and expected to further increase some controls are introduced tion r pollut air time now 5 yrs 10 yrs 20 yrs
.. and expected to further increase.. or no action tion r pollut air time now 5 yrs 10 yrs 20 yrs
cost of inaction tion r pollut air time now 5 yrs 10 yrs 20 yrs
acting sooner with informed decision making environmental, social, & economic benefits tion r pollut air time now 5 yrs 10 yrs 20 yrs
benefits will depend on the baseline environmental, social, & economic benefits tion r pollut air time now 5 yrs 10 yrs 20 yrs
goal is to reduce below standards, cost effectively & fast.. and maximize benefits air pollut tion.. an informed analysis and dialogue will help. time now 5 yrs 10 yrs 20 yrs
Small steps.. monitoring hot spots institutional stakeholders apportionment policy options Information Analysis Options data collection emissions technical 1 2 dispersion 3 economic 4 impacts impacts Dialogue cost & benefits prioritization.. for BIG reductions
Simple Interactive Models Air Quality Sources Impacts Policy Options SIM-air Technical Options Economic Options Details @ www.sim-air.org
Simple objectives.. Collate first, complicate later Apply tools for analysis Evaluate C&B of options Support stakeholder dialogue Details @ www.sim-air.org
Lat 40 30 20 10 0-10 -20 Total sulfur depositions - Year 1990 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 Lon 4000 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 200 100 50 20 10 mg(s) / m2 / yr No. of Vehicles 4,500,000 000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 MotorCycle Car Van TukTuk Truck Taxi HeavyDuty Bus Road Network Administrative Point Sources 70 Statistics, Remote Sensing, GIS, Databases APHEBA ISC3 UAM ATMOS CMAQ WARF HYSPLIT RAMS/MM5 Models 0 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Knowledge Base Analysis Monitoring Stakeholders Reports Environmental Agencies
GAINS/RAINS Model @ http://www.iiasa.ac.at/ ac at/~rains
SEI Emissions Handbook Email: harry.vallack@sei.se
HEAT Emissions Database @ http://www.iclei.org/heat
Bangkok, Thailand, 2008 Average Speed Average Speed Average Speed 10 20 30 10 20 30 10 20 30 Light Duty Vehicles Heavy Duty Buses Heavy Duty Trucks HC 0.52 0.32 0.25 2.35 1.31 0.93 1.46 0.93 0.71 CO 1.88 1.32 1.07 10.17 6.59 5.11 13.12 10.35 9.02 NOx 2.97 2.34 2.03 19.68 12.00 8.98 15.02 10.44 8.44 CO2 414.74 317.95 272.17 1299.06 843.09 654.71 1163.51 921.26 803.67 PM 216.18 187.54 172.59 1319.11 962.30 800.18 2445.90 1859.44 1583.94 Pre-19 994 Pre-19 995 HC 0.36 0.24 0.20 1.81 1.10 0.82 1.65 1.18 0.96 CO 1.51 1.09 0.90 17.40 16.02 15.26 4.24 3.46 3.08 NOx 3.37 2.60 2.24 22.45 13.30 9.80 14.24 10.88 9.30 CO2 409.56 322.43 280.32 1317.69 999.87 850.79 1185.70 980.67 877.59 PM 153.14 155.50 156.90 1928.59 1759.84 1668.06 933.68 880.38 850.62 HC 0.34 0.21 0.16 0.85 0.46 0.32 1.83 1.22 0.97 CO 1.83 1.08 0.79 18.21 15.42 13.99 4.24 3.46 3.08 NOx 2.87 2.23 1.93 19.68 12.00 8.98 15.02 10.44 8.44 CO2 437.58 342.34 296.56 1789.18 1154.76 893.83 1401.33 1127.40 992.71 PM 169.94 166.20 164.05 835.09 620.84 522.00 1283.03 925.60 764.66 1997-9 99 1997-20 000 HC 0.27 0.19 0.16 1.83 1.05 0.76 0.83 0.55 0.43 CO 170 1.70 137 1.37 121 1.21 636 6.36 372 3.72 272 2.72 540 5.40 361 3.61 285 2.85 NOx 1.45 1.14 0.98 13.50 9.47 7.70 15.07 10.03 7.91 CO2 420.66 342.25 303.35 1474.90 1038.44 845.75 1438.36 1009.98 821.27 PM 138.24 145.44 149.83 1116.67 982.14 911.09 447.67 410.40 390.06 after 200 00 after 200 01 Pre-19 995 1994- -96 1996- -97 1996- -97 1997-20 000 after 200 01
CPCB, India, 2008
Average EF s in VAPIS Gasoline Diesel CNG 2Ws 3Ws Cars Cars LDV HDT Bus 3Ws Cars LDV Bus PM 10 0.10 0.20 0.10 1.00 1.25 2.00 1.50 0.10 0.05 0.02 0.02 PM 2.5 0.05 0.08 0.03 0.60 0.50 1.00 0.80 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.01 SO 2 0.02 0.02 0.07 0.40 0.30 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NO x 0.15 0.10 0.20 1.25 2.00 10.0 10.0 0.35 0.20 3.50 2.50 CO 2.50 8.00 5.00 2.00 2.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 1.00 3.50 3.50 CO 2 40 80 200 250 500 850 850 70 100 450 450 HC 1.50 5.00 1.00 0.40 0.20 1.00 1.00 0.15 0.02 0.10 0.10 VAPIS: Vehicular Air Pollution Information System @ www.sim-air.org
SIM-air Working Paper Series In 2008 01. Creating GIS Road Maps for Urban Centers 02. Four Simple Equations for Vehicular Emissions Inventory 03. Informed Decision Support for AQM in Developing Cities 04. Simple & Interactive Tools for Air Pollution Analysis 05. Urban Air Pollution Analysis in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 06. Estimating Health Impacts of Urban Air Pollution 07. Estimating Road Dust Emissions: Methods & Parameters 08. Co-Benefits: Management Options for Local Pollution & GHG Emission Control 09. Air Pollution & Co-Benefits Analysis for Hyderabad, India 10. What is Particulate Matter: Composition & Science 11. Urban Transport in India: Not so Fast for Nano Car Details @ www.sim-air.org
SIM 06-2008 Health
SIM-air Cities 2008 Ouagadougou Lagos Cotonou Ulaanbaatar Beijing Kathmandu Shanghai Delhi Dhaka Pune Hanoi Hyderabad Bangkok Jakarta Antananarivo Santiago Details @ www.sim-air.org
SIM-air Cities Case Studies
Pune, India, Times of India, July 25 th, 2008
City Applications
Hyderabad, India 2006-08
Transport vs. Air Quality Annual Vehicular Population (in 10,000s) 140 210 120 100 80 60 40 20 180 150 120 90 60 30 Annual Average PM 10 Concentrations (μg/m 3 ) 0 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Total Vehicles; 2002 = 14.5 L; 2006 = 18.0 L; 2007 = 20.0 L
Hyderabad Urban Development Area 17.75 17.70 industrial areas 17.65 municipal bdy 17.60 17.55 17.50 17.45 HCU PG CKP 17.40 17.35 17.30 17.25 Hyderabad 17.20 78.20 78.25 78.30 78.35 78.40 78.45 78.50 78.55 78.60 78.65 78.70 78.75
Source Apportionment Study Three seasons in 2005-06 Three sites (PG, CKP, HCU) Airmetrics MiniVol samplers 24-hour sampling periods Filters PM 10 and PM 2.5 Teflon/quartz fiber filters E Averages A 17% 24% PM 10 ranged 59 to 160 μg/m 3 D PM 2.5 ranged 26 to 86 μg/m 3 14% B 17% Measurement Sample Source Profiles C 28% Source Apportionment Receptor Model: CMB 8.2 Detailed report @ www.urbanemissions.info
CMB Results: Average Sectoral Contributions Sec-PM 8% VegB 5% Indus 6% Road Dust 33% VegB 8% Indus 18% Road Dust 10% Veh 48% PM10 PM2.5 Sec-PM 15% Veh 49%
Emission Inventory (yr 2006) Category PM 10 SO 2 NO x CO 2 Vehicular activity 8,410 6,304 38,772 6,260,099 Paved road dust 3,422 Unpaved road dust 5,110 Industry 11,054 7,110 7,836 916,486 Domestic 1,845 667 545 83,485 Open Waste Burning 810 Total 30,473 14,081 47,152 7,260,070 in tons/yr Detailed report @ www.urbanemissions.info
Modeled Annual Average PM 10 17.75 17.7070 μg/m 3 17.65 17.60 150 17.55 125 17.50 100 17.45 HCU PG CKP 75 17.40 50 17.35 25 17.30 10 17.25 17.20 78.20 78.25 78.30 78.35 78.40 78.45 78.50 78.55 78.60 78.65 78.70 78.75
% Estimated Contribution of Sectors 17.75 Vehicles 17.75 Road Dust 17.70 % 17.70 % 17.65 17.65 17.60 50 17.60 25 17.55 45 17.55 21 17.50 40 17.50 18 17.45 17.40 HCU PG CKP 30 20 17.45 17.40 HCU PG CKP 15 10 17.35 10 17.35 5 17.30 5 17.30 3 17.25 17.25 17.20 78.20 78.25 78.30 78.35 78.40 78.45 78.50 78.55 78.60 78.65 78.70 78.75 17.75 17.20 78.20 78.25 78.30 78.35 78.40 78.45 78.50 78.55 78.60 78.65 78.70 78.75 Industries BB & Domestic 17.75 17.70 17.65 % 17.70 17.65 % 17.60 50 17.60 10 17.55 40 17.55 8 17.50 30 17.50 6 17.45 HCU 20 PG CKP 15 17.45 HCU PG CKP 3 4 17.40 17.40 17.35 10 17.35 2 17.30 5 17.30 1 17.25 17.25 17.20 78.20 78.25 78.30 78.35 78.40 78.45 78.50 78.55 78.60 78.65 78.70 78.75 17.20 78.20 78.25 78.30 78.35 78.40 78.45 78.50 78.55 78.60 78.65 78.70 78.75
Top-Down vs. Bottom-Up Location Vehicles Veh+RD Industry Dom+OWB SA M SA M SA M SA M Punjagutta 54 ± 10 40-45 81 ± 10 66-70 13 ± 10 15-20 5 ± 10 4-6 Chikkadpally 45 ± 10 40-45 80 ± 10 60-66 15 ± 10 20-30 4 ± 10 4-6 HCU 43 ± 10 30-35 80 ± 10 50-60 16 ± 10 10-15 5 ± 10 8-10 SA = top-down = source apportionment M = bottom-up = modeled Detailed report @ www.urbanemissions.info
Action Plan for Air Pollution Reduction Co-Benefits Analysis
Hyderabad: Proposed Action Plan Road maintenance LPG for 3 W s Public transportt New emissions standards Phase-out for old 2 W s, 3 W s, & Cars Industrial energy efficiency Garbage management
Co-Benefits for 2020 Estimated Overall Percent Reductions Intervention PM 10 (%) CO 2 (%) 100% buses to CNG 11.6 16.2 Public transport 6.1 9.8 Wet & vacuum sweeping 6.9 I & M 1.2 3.8 Abolish diesel gen sets & biomass 14.2 2.0 Control illegal l garbage burning 16 1.6 Coal use in domestic sector 3.1 0.6 Detailed report @ www.urbanemissions.info
Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 2007
AQM Bureau @ Ulaanbaatar National AQ Council (with MNE) AQM Bureau Sec. of AQM Bureau Specialized Organizations AQ Division i i of UB AQ Divisions for Provinces CLEM Monitoring Ozone ICC Inst. Of Meteorology and Hydrology
Dispersion in Winter
In Migration of Population
Stoves: cooking & heating
fly ash from power plants
Garbage Burning
Brick Industry
Fugitive Dust May 7 th 2007
Traffic (image from google earth)
Fugitive Dust from Vehicles
= Cooking & Heating 2020 2015 2010 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 000 2001 2000 Total Number of Households in Ulaanbaatar 385,000 350,000 000 4% Growth Rate Households 315,000 280,000 245,000 210,000 175,000 140,000 105,000 70,000 35,000 0 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 1970 1965 1960 1956 1950 1944 1940 1935 1930 50% 40% Total Vehicles Growth Rate 30% 40,000 30,000 20,000 Transport, 20% A Growing 10% 0% 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1985 1980 1975 1970 1966 1960 10,000 0 Sector -10%
PM Emissions (2006) 10 HoB 16% UPRD 7% UNK 8% Brick 3% OB 4% PP 34% HH Stoves 23% Other 13% PRD 2% HWB 0% Veh Kiosks 2% 1% Estimated t d@985kt 98.5 ktons (annual) Detailed report @ www.urbanemissions.info
Modeled PM 10 Concentrations 48 47.95 47.9 150 300 250 210 180 120 47.85 90 60 30 47.8 0 106.7 106.75 106.8 106.85 106.9 106.95 107 107.05 05
Plan of Action 2008-20 Monitoring Clean coal for domestic sector **** Heating only boilers to central heating New combustion technologies for PP s ESP s for PP s & larger industries Fly ash control to brick making Energy efficiency at brick & cement
Briquette Technology
Hanoi, Vietnam 2008
Hanoi, Vietnam
In City Pollution Sources Non-Transport ~ a large industry ~ domestic ~ coal mining ~ & related transportt ~ power plant
In City Pollution Sources Transport ~1.6 million in 2006 ~ 90% are motorcycles ~ Dust levels are high ~ Cars are increasingi ~ low public transport
Passive Samplers 2006-07 NO x & SO 2 Averages are ~2 times the standards
Source Apportionment for PM 50 45 40 Hanoi 30 Apr 03, 10 Oct 04 4 Day Back Trajectories (every 4hr) UlaanBaatar Beijing Sado Is. Secondary 10% Marine 8% Transport 5% Soil Dust 4% Latitude 35 30 30Apr03 Cheju Is. 10Oct04 25 20 Hanoi Hong Kong Sites 300m 15 Manila 500m 10 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 Longitude Local Burning 28% PM 2.5 Long Range Trans 45% Cohen et al., 2006 using back trajectories; Hien et al., 2004 using receptor modeling
PM Emissions (2005) 10 PRD 13% UPRD 13% Garb-B 8% Ind-Inc 1% Bricks 8% other pollutants Veh 18% Ind 29% Kiosks 5% PM10 HH 5% Hosp-W 0% Estimated @ 23.5 ktons (annual) NO x, SO 2, & CO 2 Details @ Guttikunda & SVCAP, 2008
Modeled PM 10 Concentrations 21.40 21.35 μg/m 3 3 21.30 PM2.5 PM10 TSP 3 9 La atitude 21.25 21.20 21.15 21.1010 150 100 80 60 0.6 mg/m 3 120 2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 01 0.1 0 1 4 8 7 10 6 5 21.05 40 21.00 20 20.95 0 20.90 20.85 105.65 105.75 105.85 105.95 106.05 Longitude
% Estimated Contribution of Sectors Vehicles 21.40 21.40 Road Dust 21.35 % 21.35 % 21.30 21.30 21.25 30 21.25 15 Latitude 21.20 21.15 21.10 21.05 25 20 15 12 8 Latitude 21.20 21.15 21.10 21.05 12 10 8 6 4 21.00 4 21.00 2 20.95 0 20.95 0 20.90 20.90 20.85 20.85 105.65 105.75 105.85 105.95 106.05 105.65 105.75 105.85 105.95 106.05 21.40 Longitude Longitude Ind - Bi Bricks BB & Domestic 21.40 21.35 % 21.35 % 21.30 21.30 21.25 35 21.25 12 Latitude 21.20 21.15 21.10 21.05 30 25 20 15 10 Latitude 21.20 21.15 21.10 21.05 10 8 6 4 21.00 5 21.00 2 20.95 0 20.95 0 20.90 20.90 20.85 105.65 105.75 105.85 105.95 106.05 20.85 105.65 105.75 105.85 105.95 106.05 Longitude Longitude
Hanoi: AQM Plan 2020 Road maintenance Mass transport road & rail New emissions i standards d for 2W s & cars Industrial zoning & energy efficiency ESP s for larger industries Alternative fuels for domestic Landfill management Details @ Guttikunda & SVCAP, 2008
Challenges ahead.. What goes in.. Comes out Tools are plenty Need more collaborative action Informed decision making is key To join SIM-air mailing list, send email to simair@urbanemissions.info
Thank you Dr. Sarath at Guttikundau @ www.urbanemissions.info December 2008