Mineral raw materials: sustainability issues for the XXIst century European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2015 GIFT Workshop Dr. Patrice Christmann Mineral Raw Materials Strategy Manager Evaluation and Scientific Strategy Directorate p.christmann@brgm.fr mercredi 22 juillet 2015
Presentation outline 1. The modern metals and minerals boom 2. Demand drivers 3. The transition towards a circular economy 4. Conclusions Direction de l Evaluation et de la Stratégie mercredi 22 juillet 2015 > 2
1 THE MODERN METALS AND MINERALS BOOM Direction de l Evaluation et de la Stratégie mercredi 22 juillet 2015 > 3
H He Li Be Early XXth century: only a few elements were routinely used Début at industrial du XXème scale siècle: éléments couramment utilisés par nos aieux B C N O F Ne Na Mg Al Si P S Cl Ar K Ca Sc Ti V Cr Mn Fe Co Ni Cu Zn Ga Ge As Se Br Kr Rb Sr Y Zr Nb Mo Tc Ru Rh Pd Ag Cd In Sn Sb Te I Xe Cs Ba La Hf Ta W Re Os Ir Pt Au Hg Tl Pb Bi Po At Rn Fr Ra Ac Rf Db Sg Bh Hs Mt Ds Rg Uub Uut Uuq Uup Uuh Uuo Lanthanides (Terres rares) Actinides Ce Pr Nd Pm Sm Eu Gd Tb Dy Hm Er Tm Yb Lu Th Pa U Np Pu Am Cm Bk Cf Es Fm Md No Lr Routinely used elements Elements couramment utilisés Compilation: P. Christmann, BRGM Rarely Elements used plus elements rarement utilisés Direction de la Stratégie mercredi 22 juillet 2015 > 4
H He Li Na Be Mg A century later, we use almost every element on the periodic table just to meet our energy needs. RAW MATERIALS NEEDED FOR ENERGY SECTOR APPLICATIONS (MOST ARE FROM MINING ACTIVITIES) B Al C Si N P O S F Cl Ne Ar K Ca Sc Ti V Cr Mn Fe Co Ni Cu Zn Ga Ge As Se Br Kr Rb Sr Y Zr Nb Mo Tc Ru Rh Pd Ag Cd In Sn Sb Te I Xe Cs Ba La Hf Ta W Re Os Ir Pt Au Hg Tl Pb Bi Po At Rn Fr Ra Ac Rf Db Sg Bh Hs Mt Ds Rg Uub Uut Uuq Uup Uuh Uuo Lanthanides Ce Pr Nd Pm Sm Eu Gd Tb Dy Hm Er Tm Yb Lu (Rare Earth) Actinides Th Pa U Np Pu Am Cm Bk Cf Es Fm Md No Lr Batteries Electricity generation and storage Lighting Connectivity Elements specific to nuclear Supraconductors Energy saving electricity generation Catalysis (fuel cells) Photovoltaics Permanent magnets for windmills and electrical/ hybrid cars Nom du service émetteur mercredi 22 juillet 2015 > 5
1919 1923 1927 1931 1935 1939 1943 1947 1951 1955 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 2023 2027 2031 2035 2039 2043 2047 000 000 000 1919-2050 production, in metric tonnes, of 14 mineral raw materials (Al, Au,Ba, Co, Cr, Cu, iron ore, K2O, Mn, Ni, phosphate, Pb, Pt, Zn) - 1919-2010: real growth - 2010-2050: 3.2% CAGR based on the average growth 1981-2010 Data source : United States 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 More minerals and metals will have to be produced over the coming 35 years than had been produced since the onset of humanity 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 0 Nom du service émetteur mercredi 22 juillet 2015 > 6
2 XXI ST CENTURY DEMAND DRIVERS Direction de l Evaluation et de la Stratégie mercredi 22 juillet 2015 > 7
An expanding world population means that more minerals and metals will be needed at least up to 2050 Source: http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/worldpop2300final.pdf
Tons per capita Aluminium Copper Stainless steel Lead Zinc Iron 100000 The demand will be further driven by the existing huge disparities between rich and poorer countries and the latter s aspirations for better (more resources intensive) livestyles 10000 1000 100 10 MDC (more developped countries) = OECD Chile, Korea and Mexico approx. 860 M people in 2005 LDC (less developed countries) = the rest of the world approx. 5.6 bn people in 2005 1 Nom du service émetteur mercredi 22 juillet 2015 > 9
5 billion cellphones, a rich metals resource (2005 data, source: USGS) Per cellphone Global stock (in t) Share of the 2009 mine production Copper 16 g 70 796 0,4 % Silver 0,35 g 1 549 7,1 % Gold 0,034 g 150 6,1 % Palladium 0,015 g 66 34,6% Platinum 0,00015 g 2 0,8 % Cellphones also contain aluminium, arsenic, beryllium, bismuth, calcium, carbon, chrome, cobalt, tin, europium, indium, iron, gallium, indium, lithium, neodymium, silicium, tantalum, terbium, yttrium, zinc,
REE use in car manufacturing (By permission of Renault cars) Engine Sensors UV cut Glass -Cerium Glass and Mirrors polishing powder -Cerium Car body primers and anticorrosive coatings -Yttrium -Yttrium (ceramics) Ductile cast iron Cerium, Lanthanum +25 Electric Motors Throughout vehicle -Neodymium Magnets -Dysprosium Nom du service émetteur mercredi 22 juillet 2015 Rare Earth phosphors and filters are used in automotive headlights to reduce glare -Neodymium Catalytic Converter -Cerium -Lanthanum > 11
Beryllium uses in modern aircraft 12 An Airbus A380 uses 530 km of wiring; 40,300 connectors; 2.9 million terminals. Virtually all are made of Cu-Be alloy (Courtesy: Beryllium Science & Technology Association)
Evolution of the superalloy used in the hot part of 13 aircraft turbines From «MATERIALS CHALLENGES FOR THE AEROSPACE SECTOR - UK Aerospace, Defence, Security & Space Industries Trade Organisation
Steel intensity of different power generation technologies Derived from: http://www.riotinto.com/documents/111128_rio_tinto_investor_seminar_slides.pdf Evaluation and Strategy Directorate mercredi 22 juillet 2015 > 14
The rapid deployment of many new metals intensive technologies, including «green» or «dematerialised» technologies meant to save energy resources, leads to a very high metals demand compound annual growth rate. There are no signs for a rapid change of these trends. Indium Gallium Niobium Rhenium Lithium Cobalt (refined) Molybdenum Antimony Rare Earth Nickel Aluminium Chromite Vanadium Pig Iron Copper Platinum group Zinc Silver Manganese Tungsten Germanium Bismuth -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% Nom du service émetteur mercredi 22 juillet 2015 CAGR 30 years (19983-2012) CAGR 10 years (2003-2012) > 15
3 THE TRANSITION TOWARDS A CIRCULAR ECONOMY Evaluation and Strategy Directorate mercredi 22 juillet 2015 > 16
WHAT ARE THE REAL WORLD TRENDS LIKELY TO BE? Inputs: energy, water, land, chemicals... Outputs: to air, soil, water (waste) Outputs: to air, soil, water (waste) That is the circular economy as we dream about: almost no primary resources needs, limited emissions. Natural resource (minerals) Mining The problem is that while it is highly desirable from a resources conservation perspective, a strictly Outputs: to air, soil, water (waste) Ore processing/ metallurgy Inputs: energy, circular economy just can t Inputs: energy, water, land, water, land, chemicals... chemicals... exist, 7% of the world energy production is needed for the Manufacturing SECUNDARY RECYCLING metalsproduction With a growing demography and a shift to ever more resources intensive lifestyles, mineral resources will continue to be needed, and in vast amounts. Waste, emissions Inputs: energy, water, land, chemicals... Use phase (extend use time) PRIMARY RECYCLING Recycle/ re-use Outputs: to air, soil, water (waste) End-of-life phase Outputs: to air, soil, water (waste) HOWEVER THIS LEAVES ROOM FOR MANY POLICY AND TECHNOLOGY DRIVEN ACTIONS TOWARDS A MORE CIRCULAR ECONOMY. THE GOLDEN RULE TO GUIDE THINKING AND ACTION IS: NO MORE WASTE, THINK OF WASTE AS A VALUABLE RESOURCE Evaluation and Strategy Directorate mercredi 22 juillet 2015 > 17
RECYCLING RATES FROM END-OF-LIFE PRODUCTS OF MOST OF THE RARE/ MINOR METALS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 1% AND LESS. ALTHOUGH CURRENT R&D ALLOWS MUCH HOPE FOR PROGRESS THIS COULD BE UNDERMINED BY LOW METALS PRICES Source: UNEP International Resource Panel (UNEP - 2011 - Recycling rates of metals - A Status report. A Report of the Working Group on the Global Metal Flows to the UNEP International Resource Panel - Graedel T.E., Allwood J., Birat J.-P., Reck B.K., Sibley S.F., Sonnemann G., Buchert M., Hagelüken C. - UNEP (Nairobi, Kenya) - Evaluation http://www.unep.org/resourcepanel/portals/24102/pdfs/metals_recycling_rates_110412-1.pdf and Strategy Directorate mercredi 22 juillet 2015 > 18
WHILE RECYCLING PROVIDES IMPORTANT SUSTAINABILITY BENEFITS, IT HAS LITTLE IMPACT ON THE FUTURE MINERAL RESOURCES DEMAND AS SHOWN BY EXAMPLES OF RECYCLING, AT A 50% RECYCLING RATE, ON THE DEMAND FOR PRIMARY METAL, COMPUTED FOR 3 DIFFERENT PRODUCT LIFESPANS ( 5,10, 30 YEARS LIFESPAN) 1200 000 1200 000 1000 000 800 000 5 years lifespan before recyling 1000 000 800 000 10 years lifespan before recyling 600 000 600 000 400 000 400 000 200 000 200 000 - - 1200 000 Demand Primary production needed Recycled metal flow 1000 000 800 000 600 000 30 years lifespan before recyling 400 000 200 000 - Evaluation and Strategy Directorate
THE COMPLEXITIES OF MAN-MADE PRODUCTS IS FREQUENTLY MUCH HIGHER THAN THE COMPLEXITY OF NATURAL ORES, SETTING ECONOMIC AND TECHNICAL LIMITS TO RECYCLING A natural ore has relatively simple A lead-zinc ore (greyish-blue lead sulfide and dark mineral brown shiny assemblages, zinc sufide crystals) on with a quartz 1 matrix. to 3 minerals Common polymetallic of economic ores are assemblages importance, 5 to 10 minerals and may contain up to 10 elements comprising 1 to 5+ metals An electronic motherboard has very A modern higly integrated motherboard may comprise 60 different elements complex in very assemblages complex with and miniaturised a wide, and components, very variable a man-made range «ore» of much metallic higher complexity and than natural ores. (Here: VIA Mobile-ITX Board Image from ViaGallery, Creative organic Commons components, Licence) comprising 30+ metals and metalloids, some in very minute amounts. Evaluation and Strategy Directorate mercredi 22 juillet 2015 > 20
4 CONCLUSIONS Evaluation and Strategy Directorate mercredi 22 juillet 2015 > 21
> Science-based education in natural resources related issues, sustainable use and management from the youngest age is a key towards a sustainable future > Research and innovation all along mineral resources dependent supply chains are equally important > Knowledge-based natural resources governance has to be developed at the broad global level, based on transparency and accountability Evaluation and Strategy Directorate mercredi 22 juillet 2015 > 22
4 SOME INFORMATION AND KNOWLEDGE SOURCES Evaluation and Strategy Directorate mercredi 22 juillet 2015 > 23
Visit the European Commission s webpages on the EU Raw Materials Initiative, it links to many documents, such as the 2 nd edition of the report on Raw Materials Critical to the EU (2014) nd many EU research projects findings Visit the UNEP International Resource Panel website with its ever growing range of top level international science based, policy relevant assessments: unep.org/resourcepanel Watch the movie: «Planet Re:think», released at RIO+20, winner of several international awards: http://planetrethink.com Nom du service émetteur mercredi 22 juillet 2015 > 24
Metals related reports published by the International Resource Panel www.unep.org/resourcepanel 25 PRIORITY PRODUCTS METAL STOCKS RECYCLING RATES ENVIRONMENTAL METALS RECYCLING AND MATERIALS IN SOCIETY OF METALS RISKS OF METALS OPTIONS, LIMITS & INFRASTRUCTURE Nom du service émetteur All reports are downloadable for free jeudi 10 octobre 2013 > 6
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