Energy Transitions in India: A Perspective Rangan Banerjee Forbes Marshall Chair Professor Department of Energy Science and Engineering Indian Institute of Technology Bombay Invited talk at IGCS premise inauguration Nov 1, 2017
What is an Energy transition? A particularly significant set of changes to the patterns of energy use in a society (O Connor 2010) Energy infrastructures are socio-technical systems. A system transition is a substantial change in the state of a socio-technical system (Chappin, 2011) Energiewende (Morris and Pehnt, 2012) 2
Why is it important? 3
Transport Transitions 5 th Avenue New York 15 th April 1900 March 23, 1913 https://therationalpessimist.com/2015/03/22/charts-du-jour-21-march-2015-battery-banter/ 4
Decline in Coal Jobs (USA) 5
During the last 40 years the share of renewables in the primary energy mix in India? I) Has more than doubled from its earlier value II) Has remained almost constant III) Has decreased significantly IV) Has increased by 10% V) None of the above 6
Primary Energy Mix Coal Oil and Gas Renewables and Nuclear 7
Primary Energy Mix 8
Power Generation Supply mix Thermal Nuclear Renewables and Hydro 9
Power Generation Supply mix Thermal Nuclear Renewables and Hydro 10
Energy Transitions in the past Transition from traditional fuels to modern, commercial fuels (mainly fossil) Investment in centralized energy supply and distribution infrastructure Centralised inter- connected electricity grid Large hydro and coal based thermal power plants Focus on supply growth Public sector and government investments 11
Drivers for Energy Transitions Climate Change Paris commitments global move away from fossil Significant drop in prices of Solar PV and wind Reduction in prices of shale oil and natural gas Success in public procurement of LEDs rapid decline in prices Internet of Things Technology developments, Intelligent sensors, control 12
India s NDC #1 Reduce Emissions Intensity of GDP by 33-35% of 2005 level in 2030 #2 Create 40% cumulative non fossil power by installed capacity by 2030 (using finance from Green Climate Fund) #3 Create an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO 2 equivalent through additional tree cover and forest 13
Tariff Bid Rs/kWh Variation in Solar Price Bids 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 14
LED Price ( ) EESL LED Price reduction 1200 1000 800 310 204 150 34 2010 2011 2012 Nov-13 Aug-14 Dec-15 2016 15
Energy Storage- Learning Curve Schmidt et al, Nature Energy, 2017 16
Challenges for the Energy Transition Electricity Sector Transition Supply mix, efficiency Transport Sector transitions moving away from oil CNG, Electric, Hydrogen, Bio-fuel, Methanol, Private to Public transport- reduce demand for travel air travel Cooking Energy LPG, Electricity, modern biomass 17
Transport transitions- US Source: Cherif et al, 2017 IMF Working paper 18
World s largest solar power plant 648 MW 46540 Million~ Rs 72 Million/ MW Area 10 km 2 Kamothi, Tamil Nadu Robotics for automatic panel cleaning Plant built in 8 months http://www.indiatimes.com/news/india/india-is-now-home-to-the-world-s-largestsolar-power-plant-it-s-big-enough-to-power-150-000-homes-266449.html 19
Renewable installed capacity and generation Installed Capacity* (MW) Estimated Capacity factor Estimated Generation (GWh) Wind 32280 14% 39588 Biomass & Bagasse 8182 50% 35833 Small Hydro 4380 40% 15349 Waste to Energy 115 50% 504 Solar PV 12289 19% 20445 Total 57244 25% 111,729 *as on 31.03.2017 MNRE website: www.mnre.gov.in 20
Solar and Wind Growth 450 400 350 Existing capacity (GW) Targets for the future (GW) 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 China US India Japan Germany 21
Electricity Generation (Source: Niti Aayog Energy Plan) TWh 2012 2022 2040 BAU Ambitious BAU Ambitious Gas Power Stations 115 128 154 181 302 Coal power stations 708 1526 1482 2606 1984 Carbon Capture Storage (CCS) 0 5 5 137 137 Fossil Fuel Based Electricity 824 1659 1641 2924 2423 Nuclear power 27 82 87 164 237 Hydro Power Generation 144 214 214 248 324 Hydro and Nuclear 170 296 301 412 561 Solar PV 2 99 99 422 489 Solar CSP 0 11 14 105 185 Onshore Wind 32 129 129 390 423 Offshore Wind 0 6 6 62 92 Distributed Solar PV 0 55 55 164 193 Other Renewable Sources 46 86 101 203 281 Renewable Based Electricity 80 386 404 1346 1663 Electricity imports 5 15 25 71 126 Total 1078 2356 2371 4753 4773 22
Renewable Generation 2015-16 Source: Prayas Oct 2016 India s journey towards 175 GW 23
Coal Power plants PLF 24
Power Generation Supply mix Thermal Nuclear Renewables and Hydro 25
California: Duck Curve https://www.caiso.com/documents/flexibleresourceshelprenewables_fastfacts.pdf 26
GW Indian Duck Curve (with Niti Aayog Scenario) 700 Jan- 2040 600 500 400 300 Projected Load Demand 200 Projected Solar PV generation 100 Projected Solar Generation with CSP 0 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 Time of day (hours) 27
Age Profile of Thermal Plants No. of units Capacity (MW) 55 52 49 46 43 40 37 34 31 28 25 22 19 16 13 10 7 4 1 29.6% (179) plants have exceeded operational plant life 55.7% (336) plants have exceeded mid plant life Plants exceeding mid life 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 55 52 49 46 43 40 37 34 31 28 25 22 19 16 13 10 7 4 1 14.5% (23783 MW) capacity has exceeded operational plant life 36.4% (59908 MW) capacity has exceeded mid plant life Plants exceeding operational life 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 No. of units Capacity (MW) 28
Solar Module Imports Solar Module Exports Source: Bridge to India, India Solar Handbook, 2017 29
PV Manufacturing in India Module Manufacturing Capacity 5286 MW (December 2016) operational out of 6800 MW installed Domestic module production in 2016 1330 MW Low capacity utilization unable to compete 88% of domestic supply Imports (84% from China) Imports 2016-17 FY 3 billion US $ (180 Billion Rupees) 5.7 GW of modules (2.8% of trade deficit) Cell manufacturing capacity 1753 MW (operational 1448 MW) 30
Wind - Variation over the year Source: Powergrid 2012 31
Wind Daily Variation Tamil Nadu Source: Powergrid 2012 32
Electricity Sector Transitions Optimal operating strategy planning for grid operation Strategies for flexibility in thermal power operation Impact of higher penetration of PV, Wind on grid operations Strategies for existing power plants, infrastructure Regulation- balancing loads, new tariff policies 33
Distributed Energy Systems? 34
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Power in kw Electrical Energy Balance 4 3 2 Feed in Grid Load PV 1 0-1 -2-3 Generation-Consumption Profile for Competition Day 1, June 30th 2014-4 Generation Consumption Profile for the competition duration 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Performance: PV Supply = 281 kwh, Demand = 146 kwh Net Energy Positive, 135 kwh in 12 days Energy payback analysis% for PV = 2.4 years Demand (Wh) Supply (Wh) 36
MUs Rooftop Solar 2.5 Jan, 2014 Typical Load Profile vs PV Generation 2 1.5 1 0.5 1-Axis Tracking @ Highest eff. 0 37
Moderate Warm & Humid Composite Hot & Dry Cold Moderate Warm & Humid Composite Hot & Dry Cold Moderate Warm & Humid Composite Hot & Dry Cold Moderate Warm & Humid Composite Hot & Dry Cold Per Unit Price ( /kwh) Microgrids 50 40 PV Balance of System Battery 30 20 10 0 3 6 13 24 38
ALCC( /kwh) EPBT Alternative Storage options 120 100 5 4.5 4 80 60 40 20 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 VRLA LFP-G NiMH(AB2) NiMH(AB5) NaS NiCd PV+Battery Technology 0 ALCC( /kwh) EPBT 39
Electricity Sector Issues Centralised versus decentralized DISCOM deficits and affordable electricity Equity impacts of alternative strategies Impact on GDP growth Improved forecasting Demand Response and Storage Competitive Indian Manufacturing Impact on Employment 40
What remains unchanged? Income Inequality, Energy and Carbon Inequality Energy as a means to an end Demand for cost effective 24/7 Energy Self Interest, Local, National Multiplicity of Actors, Decision levels Inertia in Institutions 41
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Base year 1-SS-Z 1 2-SS-Z 2 -X 1 GDP (Billion $) 415 2415 2354 GDP Growth p.a. - 7.08% 6.98% Per Capita Income of all Households ($/year/person) Per Capita Income of all Households class RH1($/year/person) 338 1354 1308 62 185 154 Per Capita Income of all Households RH4 ($/year/person) Per Capita Income of all Households UH1($/year/person) Per Capita Income of all Households UH3 ($/year/person) 354 1662 1600 77 108 92 323 1231 1185 GINI Coefficient 0.497 0.531 0.536 43
Acknowledgement Jani Das janimanojkumar@gmail.com Ammu Susanna Jacob ammususanna@gmail.com Tejal Kanitkar tejal.kanitkar@gmail.com Balkrishna Surve
References Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE), GOI, New Delhi, www.mnre.gov.in http://www.indiatimes.com/news/india/india-is-now-home-to-the-world-s-largest-solar-power-plant-it-s-big-enough-topower-150-000-homes-266449.html (last accessed on October 25, 2017) NITI Aayog, Draft Energy Policy, Government of India, http://niti.gov.in/writereaddata/files/new_initiatives/nep- ID_27.06.2017.pdf (last accessed on October 25, 2017) Energy Efficiency Services Limited (EESL), (A Joint Venture Company of PSUs of Ministry of Power, Govt. of India), https://www.eeslindia.org/ (last accessed on October 25, 2017) Prayas Oct 2016: India s journey towards 175 GW Renewables by 2022, Ashwin Gambhir et al., Prayas Energy Group, October 2016. http://www.bridgetoindia.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/bridge-to-india_india-solar-handbook_2017-1.pdf (last accessed on October 25, 2017) http://www.re-solve.in/solar-manufacturing-capacity-in-india/ (last accessed on October 25, 2017) Power Grid Corporation Of India Ltd, Gurgaon, Report on Green Energy Corridors-Transmission Plan for Envisaged Renewable Capacity, Vol 1, C/SG/RE/2012/01,July 2012. IMF Working paper, Riding the Energy Transition: Oil Beyond 2040 (WP/17/120), Reda Cherif, Fuad Hasanov, and Aditya Pande, May 2017, https://www.imf.org/~/media/files/publications/wp/2017/wp17120.ashx (last accessed on October 26, 2017). The future cost of electrical energy storage based on experience rates, O. Schmidt, A. Hawkes, A. Gambhir & I. Staffell, Nature Energy 2, Article number: 17110 (2017) https://therationalpessimist.com/2015/03/22/charts-du-jour-21-march-2015-battery-banter/ (last accessed on October 25, 2017) https://www.caiso.com/documents/flexibleresourceshelprenewables_fastfacts.pdf (last accessed on October 25, 2017) A. S. Jacob, R. Banerjee and P. C. Ghosh, "Modelling and simulation of a PV battery grid backup system for various climatic zones of India," 2016 IEEE 43rd Photovoltaic Specialists Conference (PVSC), Portland, OR, 2016, pp. 1807-1812. 45