THE INFLUENCE OF CONTINUED RES COST REDUCTIONS ANANALYSIS WITH A MIDEUROPEAN TIMES ELECTRICITY SYSTEMS MODEL

THE INFLUENCE OF CONTINUED RES COST REDUCTIONS ANANALYSIS WITH A MIDEUROPEAN TIMES ELECTRICITY SYSTEMS MODEL Fabian P. Gotzens, M.Sc. PhD candidate 71 st semi-annual IEA-ETSAP Workshop, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA July,10 th 2017

Contents Motivation Methodology TIMES: European Electricity System Model Power Plant Matching Tool Scenario Definitions Results Conclusions and Outlook July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 2

Motivation Tremendous drop in investment costs for RES in recent years The International Energy Agency (IRENA) released a report 1 in 2016 THE POWER TO CHANGE: SOLAR AND WIND COST REDUCTION POTENTIAL TO 2025 https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/plugged-in/the-price-of-solar-is-declining-to-unprecedented-lows/ Suitable showcase to demonstrate the effects of variation of input parameters on the results of a long-term electricity system model 1 http://www.irena.org/documentdownloads/publications/irena_power_to_change_2016.pdf July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 3

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Model Overview Technical Parameters - Power plant database (technologies, fuels, efficiencies decommission pathways, ) - Storage capacities - RES geographical potentials - RES temporal availability factors - Cross-border transmission capacities (NTC*) - CO 2 emission factors - Demands per country *NTC = Net Transfer Capacities European Electricity TIMES Model Paradigm LP capacity expansion model Regions 20 European countries Years 2015 2050 Resolution 4 seasons, 2 weekdays, 24 hours = 192 time slices p.a. Economical Parameters - Fuel Prices - CO 2 Prices - Technology investment costs - Fixed + variable operations and maintanance costs - Discount rate Policy Parameters - CO 2 reduction targets - RES expansion goals July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 4

Challenges of Power Plant Databases No single database exists that is all-encompassing + fully covering European geographical scope free (costs and license) updated regularly Database Supplier No. units Gigawatts Matched Database Carbon Monitoring for Action 50 570 4 931.96 European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity 4 384 851.14 DOE Energy Storage Exchange 850 153.72 Global Energy Observatory 1 314 692.02 Open Power Systems Database 6 768 571.08 World Electric Power Plants DB 63 398 1 848.83 World Resources Institute 2 863 354.63 Power Plant Matching Toolset In cooperation with: J. Hörsch / F. Hofmann July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 5

Challenges of Power Plant Databases Good fit of matched DBs with statistics, but still room for improvement. July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 6

PRC_RESID: Decommissiong Pathway Fueltype (Technology) Life [a] Hard Coal and Lignite 35 Natural Gas (OCGT/CCGT) Natural Gas (Steam Turbines) 25 35 Oil 20 Nuclear 50 Waste 25 Bioenergy 25 CAES 40 Hydro (Pumped & Reservoir) Hydro (Run-of-River) 100 75 Wind (Onshore) 25 Wind (Offshore) 30 Photovoltaics & CSP 25 Others 5 July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 7

CAP_BND: RES Geographical Potentials Wind Power Potentials in Europe [GW] 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 AT BE CH CZ DE DK ES FR GB HU IE IT LU NL NO PL PT SE SI SK Geothermal PV Wind offshore Wind onshore Solar Thermal 44 65 23 209 2020 2030 2050 July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 9

Modelled Scenarios Reference Scenario Constant investment costs from 2015 Δ (IRENA-Reference) Δ (Extended-Reference) IRENA Scenario Decreasing investment costs between 2015 and 2025 according to IRENA Comparison Extended Scenario Further decrease between 2025 and 2050 Geometric trend for extrapolation Δ (Extended-IRENA) July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 10

INVCOST [EUR 2010 /kw] INVCOST [EUR 2010 /kw] INVCOST [EUR 2010 /kw] INVCOST [EUR 2010 /kw] INVCOST: Investment Costs in Scenarios Solar PV Wind onshore 3,000 3,000 2,000 2,000 1,000 1,000 0 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Solar CSP Wind offshore 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 11

Reference Scenario Europe s electricity mix remains diverse Nuclear remains major source of power On- and offshore wind gain importance Hard coal and lignite lose importance Very little solar PV generation Electricity trades increase steadily Specific emissions Due to expected increase in CO 2 prices downward trend Some countries quicker, others slower In 2050, Europe s installed capacities will be dominated by Renewables incl. Hydro Nuclear Natural Gas Investments in Europe mostly dominated by Nuclear Power Hydro Natural Gas increasingly Wind (on+offshore) July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 12

July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 15

countrywise delta-diagram here (either cap or gen) July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 16

countrywise delta-diagram here (either cap or gen) July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 17

Cross-border Electricity Exchanges Electricity trades rise in an increasingly connected Europe July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 18

Hourly Resolution Intratemporal resolution works and shows reasonable behavior of exports and pumped hydro usage, but the peaking utilization of solar PV in specific representative days needs to be further investigated. July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 19

Conclusions and Outlook Preliminary Results Under current assumptions the model shows plausible results, i.e. an expected decrease of investment costs for RES by IRENA until 2025 makes investment into RES, especially solar PV in European countries way more attractive than it was in 2015. a further extrapolated decrease until 2050 makes it even more attractive, but does not have significant influences on the model outcome. However, there s still work to do! Next Steps Calibration of the European electricity system model such that model meets 2015 country statistics Addition of East-European regions: FI, EE, LV, LT, BG, RO, GR etc. Feed-In tariffs for RES per country Future technologies and efficiency increases Stochastics for wind power More sophisticated storage integration Any kind advice is highly appreciated July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 20

Appendix

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Price [ 2008 / GJ] Price [ 2008 / GJ] Price [ 2008 / t CO 2 -equ.] Price [ 2008 / GJ] Fuel and CO 2 Price Developments Price CO 2 Certificates Price Crude Oil 300 100 250 200 150 100 50 80 Reference 60 strong 40 weak 20 Reference strong weak 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Price Natural Gas Price Coal 100 100 80 80 60 40 20 Reference 60 strong 40 weak 20 Reference strong weak 0 0 July 10, 2017 2010 2015 2020 Fabian 2025 Gotzens 2030 f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de 2035 2040 2045 2050 Institute of Energy 2010 and Climate 2015 2020 Research 2025 (STE), 2030 FZ Juelich, 2035 Germany 2040 2045 2050 30

Demands per Country July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 31

Matching Example ID Name Fueltype Classification Country Capacity lat lon 0 Aarberg Hydro nan Switzerland 14.609 47.0444 7.27578 1 Abbey mills pumping Oil nan United Kingdom 6.4 51.687-0.0042057 2 Abertay Other nan United Kingdom 8 57.1785-2.18679 3 Aberthaw Coal nan United Kingdom 1552.5 51.3875-3.40675 4 Ablass Wind nan Germany 18 51.2333 12.95 5 Abono Coal nan Spain 921.7 43.5588-5.72287 ID Name Fueltype Classification Country Capacity lat lon 0 Aarberg Hydro nan Switzerland 15.5 47.0378 7.272 1 Aberthaw Coal Thermal United Kingdom 1500 51.3873-3.4049 2 Abono Coal Thermal Spain 921.7 43.5528-5.7231 3 Abwinden asten Hydro nan Austria 168 48.248 14.4305 4 Aceca Oil CHP Spain 629 39.941-3.8569 5 Aceca fenosa Natural Gas CCGT Spain 400 39.9427-3.8548 Dataset 1 Dataset 2 Country Fueltype Classification Capacity lat lon 0 Aarberg Aarberg Switzerland Hydro nan 15.5 47.0411 7.27389 1 Aberthaw Aberthaw United Kingdom Coal Thermal 1552.5 51.3874-3.40583 July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 32 2 Abono Abono Spain Coal Thermal 921.7 43.5558-5.72299

Principle and Matching Excerpt Relies on java library, specialized for deduplicating and linking data string comparison (name, fueltype) Computes a score for each row numerical comparison (capacity) geoposition comparison (lat, lon) Criteria: Country must be equal Row scores of at least two databases must exceed given threshold CARMA ENTSOE ESE GEO OPSD WEPP WRI Fueltype Technology Country Year lat lon Capacity Anapo Anapo Anapo c.le solarino Anapo Anapo c.le Anapo Anapo c.le Hydro Pumped Storage Italy 1991 37,1295007 15,15225033 568,216216 Altenworth Altenwörth Altenwoerth Altenwörth Altenworth Altenwörth Hydro Run-Of-River Austria 1976 48,374614 15,8554715 324,024185 Arcos Arcos iberdrola Arcos frontera Arcos frontera Arcos Arcos frontera Natural Gas CCGT, CCGT, Spain 2005 36,672551-5,816266 1600 Eemscentrale Eems Eem ec Eems ec Eems ec Eemscentrale Natural Gas OCGT Netherlands 1975 53,4348271 6,864897133 3134,7 Mochovce Mochovce Mochovce Mochovce Mochovce Nuclear Steam Turbine Slovakia 2000 48,263095 18,45613 1820 Krsko Krsko reactor Krško Krsko Krsko Nuclear Steam Turbine Slovenia 1981 45,9383317 15,51554778 730 Itoiz Pie presa itoiz Itoiz Central pie presa itoiz Hydro Reservoir Spain 2009 24,9227101 Thermische abfallbehandlu ng lauta gmbh & co. ohg Lauta thermische Waste Steam Turbine Germany 2004 51,45071 14,11215 22 Rdk karlsruhe July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens Karlsruhe rdk f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de and Rdk karlsruhe Institute of Energy Hard and Climate Coal Steam Research Turbine (STE), FZ Germany Juelich, Germany 1985 49,0131 8,308 33 1462 Esch alzette Esch sur alzette luxembourg Natural Gas CCGT Luxembourg 49,5119 5,9646 385

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Comparison of the Matching Process July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 35