VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE Operational Implications: What do we Know and Understand? Jamal Saghir Director Energy, Transport, Water Chair, Water Sector Board Feb 28, 2007
Outline Key Challenges and Key Signals Climate Change, Water and Economy in Developing Countries Adaptation Strategies - What Needs to be Done
Water has many dimensions It affects every aspect of life and is affected by it Water flows through all the topics addressed at water week
Water for: Rural Cities Irrigation
Water for: Energy Transport
Water for: Biodiversity Livelihood
Population Growth 9 Population, billions 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 World Urban Rural 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Source: UN Population Data
Climate stress and hydrologic variability Source: UNESCO, 1999
% change in runoff by 2050 Many of the major food-bowls of the world are projected to become significantly drier Globally there will be more precipitation Higher temperatures will tend to reduce run off A few important areas drier (Mediterranean, southern South America, northern Brazil, west and south Africa)
Water resources infrastructure More storage More irrigation Against a backdrop of population growth and development
Changes in river flows Patterns of precipitation and runoff will change substantially Rain in fewer, heavier events leading to more floods and dry spells; less ground water recharge Projections for increased number of rainy days (left) and amount of rain per wet day (Right) for 2041-2060 2060 period based on modeling (HadRM2) Fewer rainy days But heavier rain
India Reuters August 11, 2006 Indian floods kill 350, leave 4m homeless in 5 Indian states
Europe: Changing flood frequency Lenher et al 2006 Climatic Change Over much of Europe one in a hundred year floods will occur every couple of decades
Threats to coastal Water Supply systems Sea level rise increased salt water intrusion Increased demand leading to depletion Pressures on costs and tariffs
Globally: Accelerated glacial and snow melt will change patterns in Water supply Areas dominated by snow & glacial melt
Mountain water systems
South America: Yanamarey Glacier, Peru 1982 1987 1997 2005
Africa: Persistent droughts Reuters, Feb. 20, 2006 Approximately 11 million people are threatened by starvation in Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia and Tanzania Rain is unlikely before April
Kenya: variability and growth rainfall variability, Ag GDP and GDP 60 rainfall variability Ag GDP GDP 10 40 8 20 6 0 4-20 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000-40 2-60 0-80 -2-100 -4
Ethiopia: Water and GDP percentage 80 60 40 20 0-20 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 25 20 15 10 5 0-5 -10-15 -40 rainfall variation around the mean -20-60 GDP growth -25 Ag GDP growth -80-30 2003-2015 2015 growth projections: 38% decline in avg. GDP growth 25% increase in poverty
Water and climate change what are we seeing Most socio-economic sectors, ecological systems and human health will be adversely affected Agricultural productivity is projected to decrease Crop yields projected to decline Melting glaciers cold increase flood risk and reduce water supplies Rising sea levels will increase coastal flooding and impact water supplies Water availability for services, energy, and environmental uses is projected to decrease Warming will exacerbate loss of biodiversity, increase water pollution, and degradation of watersheds
Emerging adaptation strategies: what we see Climate is variable and changing Mitigation is beyond the scope of the water sector Adaptation can be carried out within the water sector, but not alone Major change in the way we do business is required
What needs to be done Cannot plan based on the past Re-consider water allocation priorities Demand for water in currently irrigated water will increase Should cropping systems change? How it will adapt? An integrated approach is essential Technology transfer
What needs to be done Develop typologies of developing country cases Establish planning and screening methods Increase resilience in the irrigated agricultural sector
Concluding remarks Challenges of climate change and hydrologic variability are real and must be addressed Impact on water services and water management is significant with serious implications on economies and poverty Adaptation to variability and climate change must become an integral part of water resources management and water services delivery We are committed to work closely with our colleagues and partners to address adaptation in the water sector
Thank You!