Simulate Your Market Concentric, Inc. 2014. All rights reserved.
What is it? Concentric is simulation software that enables users to quickly answer marketing resource allocation questions and efficiently test ideas before launch
Our products address universal analytics challenges Integrate data and insights currently used in isolation Get results faster, more frequently and affordably Test strategies before launching in the real world
Our solutions do the following simultaneously Recreates a brand s competitive marketplace Accounts for all marketing investments Forecasts sales and brand health measures Assess risks and rewards by scenario Improves collaboration amongst existing staff
Simulation integrates information to help coordinate activities Consumer Behavior Social Networks Product Features Marke ng Investment
Consumer behavior is recreated through agents Online Activity Perceptions Relationships Info Gathering Decision-Making
The science also captures behaviors that other models do not TALKING Interpersonal exchange of perceptions ONLINE POSTING Blogging, posting opinions in forums and social media, and reviewing products ONLINE READING Reading blogs, opinions, and reviews online
A Social Network influences consumers and marketing Men s personal care Cars Smartphones LESS SOCIAL SOCIAL NETWORK DENSITY MORE SOCIAL The higher the density of the network, the the more likely word-of-mouth is to spread across the population 8
Marketing science defines how touchpoints impact consumers Illustrative Response Curves Sales Spend in Millions
The system simulates interactions down to the product experience Brand Perceptions Jan 1 st WOM TV USAGE PURCHASE FACEBOOK Dec31 st Events Jan 1 st USAGE TV PURCHASE PRINT WOM Dec31 st Brand Perceptions Events Brand Perceptions Jan 1 st PURCHASE DIGITAL USAGE SPONSORSHIP WOM Dec31 st Events
Once a simulation is validated, the system is used for What-If KPI s KPI s Simulation Scenario 1 Actual Scenario 2 Historical activities Forecast period
The system is applied across many categories *Selected list
Advertising Concentric, Inc. 2014. All rights reserved.
How can BMW raise sales for the 5 Series by changing their mix?
The BMW 5 market was defined by the boundaries below Alternatives Segments Attributes Touchpoints BMW 5 Series Mercedes E Class Cadillac XTS Hyundai Genesis Audi A6 Lexus GS Lincoln MKS 18-34 35-54 55+ Price Fuel Efficiency Performance Reliability Interior Safety Master Brand Style WOM Usage Master Brand Ads Paid Media o TV o Magazine o Newspaper o Radio o OOH o Display o Search
TV is most efficient while Display is least efficient % Difference (Sales Investment) Sales and Investment (%) 25% 20% 15% 10% BMW 5 Series Sales Attribution and Marketing Mix 21.4% 20.8% 18.6% 19.6% 17.5% 17.1% 15.8% 13.7% 13.0% 13.0% 12.0% 10.9% Sales Investment 5% 4.3% 2.3% 16 0% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% TV Magazine Radio Display Newspaper Search OOH 2.8% 1.2% 1.1% 0.4% -0.7% -2.0% -2.8% TV Magazine Radio Display Newspaper Search OOH Efficient Inefficient
Different mixes are tested to see if shifting into TV lifts sales BMW 5 Series Marketing Mixes 2.3% 2.0% 1.7% 12.0% 10.4% 8.7% 13.0% 13.0% 17.5% 11.2% 11.2% 15.1% 18.0% 9.5% 9.5% 12.7% 15.1% OOH Search Newspaper Display Radio 20.8% Magazine 42.8% TV 32.1% 21.4% Current Mix TV +50% TV + 100% 17
Shifting the mix is beneficial, but creates risk after a certain point BMW 5 Series Sales 58,500 BMW 5 Series Annual Sales 58,000 57,500 57,000 56,500 56,000 Current Mix TV +50% TV +100% 18
Social Media Concentric, Inc. 2014. All rights reserved.
Can Chrysler 200 generate positive buzz through social media?
The Chrysler 200 market was defined by the boundaries below Alternatives Segments Attributes Touchpoints Chrysler 200 Ford Fusion Chevy Malibu Honda Accord Hyundai Sonata Kia Optima Nissan Altima Toyota Camry Sensibility Sophistication Purpose Status Quality Features Dependability Fuel Efficiency Value Safety Pride WOM Usage Facebook Twitter Online Display TV Radio Print OOH Events
Chrysler 200 receives little WOM and minimal positive buzz Nameplate Volume as a Percentage of Category 35% 30% 31.2% 2013 WOM Volume and Sentiment 29.3% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 16.8% Toyota Camry 16.0% Honda Accord 14.0% 14.5% 13.7% 12.5% Ford Fusion Nissan Altima 12.3% 2.5% Chevy Malibu 11.0% 5.2% Hyundai Sonata 9.6% 4.3% Kia Optima 6.6% 0.6% Chrysler 200 All Positive 22
The simulation reveals that social media and events drive WOM Percentage Contribution to Chrysler 200 WOM 60% Chrysler 200 Word of Mouth Contribution 50% 51.4% 40% 30% 28.2% 20% 20.3% 10% 0% Facebook Events Twitter 23
A Facebook campaign builds positive WOM, creating sales upside Number of Conversations Sales 175,000 Chrysler 200 Positive WOM Volume 70,000 Chrysler 200 Annual Sales 170,000 69,000 165,000 68,000 160,000 67,000 155,000 66,000 150,000 Current Strategy TV Campaign Facebook Campaign 65,000 Current Strategy TV Campaign Facebook Campaign 24
Product Concentric, Inc. 2014. All rights reserved.
Should Ford invest to improve the Focus fuel efficiency?
The Focus market was defined by the boundaries below Alternatives Segments Attributes Touchpoints Ford Focus Chevy Cruze Toyota Corolla Honda Civic Hyundai Elantra Nissan Sentra VW Jetta High Knowledge Med Knowledge Low Knowledge Master Brand Fuel Efficiency Safety Price Performance Warranty Technology WOM Usage Online Forums Display Search TV Radio Print Dealership
Substantial improvements in fuel economy build perceptions Ford Focus Perception Score 5.6 Ford Focus Perceptions at Various MPG 5.4 5.2 5.0 Neutral 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 MPG = 30 MPG = 32 MPG = 34 28
Improving fuel efficiency will require capital investments Ford considers two options for upgrading the Focus fuel efficiency: 1. Small upgrade to 32 MPG modest investment, does not differentiate the Focus much 2. Large upgrade to 34 MPG much more substantial capital commitment, sets the Focus apart in the consumer s mind Will the investment for either upgrade generate enough incremental sales to pay off? 29
The small MPG upgrade pays off, but the large one may not Fuel Efficiency Investment ROI 7% Ford Focus Fuel Efficiency Investment ROI 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% Small Upgrade (32 MPG) Large Upgrade (34 MPG) 30
Rebranding Concentric, Inc. 2014. All rights reserved.
What should Mazda emphasize about their brand to boost sales?
The Mazda market was defined by the boundaries below Alternatives Segments Attributes Touchpoints Mazda 3 Ford Focus Hyundai Elantra Kia Forte Subaru Impreza Sensibility Sophistication Adventure Purpose Fuel Efficiency Safety Price Performance Technology Reliability Styling WOM Usage TV Print Radio OOH Display Search
Fuel efficiency, Styling, and Technology messages resonate Perception Lift and Message Emphasis (%) 30% 27.4% Mazda 3 Perception Lift vs. Message Emphasis 25% 25.0% 20% 20.0% 20.0% 17.9% 14.6% 15% 10% 13.9% 10.0% 12.8% 10.0% 8.8% 10.0% 5% 4.6% 5.0% 0% Fuel Efficiency Price Performance Styling Technology Safety Reliability Perception Lift Message Emphasis 34
Different messaging profiles are tested to see how they perform 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 5.0% 20.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 20.0% 15.0% 15.0% 35.0% 25.0% 15.0% Reliability Safety Technology Styling Performance Price Fuel Efficiency Current Emphasis Value Focus Style/Tech Focus 35
The Style and Technology messaging profile boosts sales Mazda 3 Sales 108,000 Mazda 3 Annual Sales 107,000 106,000 105,000 104,000 103,000 102,000 Current Emphasis Value Focus Style/Tech Focus 36
Appendix How it Works Concentric, Inc. 2014. All rights reserved.
Simulation leverages existing research by Integrating disparate insights Recreating the market Forecasting behavior by segment Diagnosing and attribute results Defining market dynamics Creating what-if scenarios
Simulations recreate market complexity with a few simple rules Rules
Agents (simulated consumers) have a set of properties Drivers Awareness Perceptions Connectivity
Simulated consumers have a set of behaviors Drivers Awareness Post Online Perceptions Purchase Talk Connectivity
The interactions are modulated by a few intervening factors Drivers Awareness Awareness Decay Perception Decay Post Online Perceptions Rationality Purchase Talk Connectivity Social Density Discussion Decay
Each consumer s behavior generates events for other consumers Hear Word of mouth Social Influence Drivers Read Online Post Awareness Awareness Decay Perception Decay Post Online Perceptions Rationality Purchase Talk Connectivity Social Density Discussion Decay
Market factors are also part of the system Product/Offer Design Hear Word of mouth Social Influence Influencers Drivers Read Online Post Awareness Awareness Decay Perception Decay Post Online Perceptions Rationality Purchase Talk Connectivity Marketing Social Density Discussion Decay Category Seasonality
External factors are connected through ads and usage Product/Offer Design Hear Word of mouth Social Influence Influencers Drivers Read Online Post Awareness Awareness Decay Perception Decay Post Online Perceptions Rationality Experience Ad Purchase Experience Product Talk Connectivity Marketing Social Density Discussion Decay Category Seasonality
The strength of their influence is driven by marketing science Product/Offer Design Hear Word of mouth Social Influence Influencers Drivers Read Online Post Awareness Impact Awareness Awareness Decay Perception Decay Post Online Perceptions Perception Potential Perception Speed Rationality Marketing Investment Creative Quality Creative Emphasis Experience Ad Annual Reach Weekly Reach Experience Product Product Design Usage Speed Connectivity Usage Frequency Discussion Impact Social Density Talk Discussion Decay Purchase Category Seasonality