National WIC Association Monthly Food Price Brief March 18, 2013 This monthly food price brief is designed to assist States in monitoring rising food costs by tracking the Consumer Price Index and average retail prices from the Bureau of Labor statistics and Thrifty Food Plan Index published by the US Department of Agriculture. The Thrifty Food Index In the past, the monthly publication of the Thrifty Food Plan (TFP) costs released by the USDA s Center for Nutrition Policy and Promotion was used to calculate the WIC Food Package inflation factor. The cost of the TFP for a reference family (couple ages 20-50, two children ages 2-3 and 4-5) increased by 1.26% in January from a year earlier. In terms of dollars, the monthly cost of TFP was $554.90 in November 2013, an increase of $6.90 from January 2012. Consumer Price Index The Consumer Price Index (CPI) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is the most widely used measure of general price changes in the U.S. economy. It s a measure of the average change in prices paid by urban consumers for a fixed market of goods and services, including food. The CPI for food at home is a component of the CPI and is the Nation s principal indicator of changes in retail food prices. Thus, this index is watched closely by policy makers. The CPI for food at home (purchased at grocery and other food stores) increased by 1.1% in January 2013 compared to January 2012. The individual CPI for fruits and vegetables increased by 2.9% in January from a year ago with different pricing trends for fresh and processed options. The price of baby foods increased by 1.7% during the same period. Meanwhile, USDA Economic Research Service forecasts CPI for food at home to increase from 3.0 to 4.0 percent in 2013. Page 1
CPI: Fruits/Vegetables 12-Month Percentage Change 5% 0% Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan '13-5% Fresh Canned Frozen Dried 2% CPI: Baby Food 12-Month Percentage Change 2% 1% 1% 0% -1% Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan'13-1% -2% Page 2
Average Retail Price According to BLS data, the national average retail price for a pound of whole wheat bread increased by 4.7% to $2.08 from a year earlier; and a pound of peanut butter went up by 11.3% to $2.86. Please see the table below for actual price changes and figures for January 2012 to January 2013 percentage changes for selected WIC foods. Moreover, a snapshot of fruit and vegetable prices is illustrated in the next page. Food and Unit Jan 13 Dec 12 Jan 12 Eggs, Grade A, large per dozen $1.93 $2.01 $1.94 Milk, fresh, whole, fortified, per gallon $3.53 $3.58 $3.58 American processed cheese, per pound $4.26 $4.24 $4.40 Cheddar cheese, natural, per pound $5.83 $5.87 $5.72 Orange juice, frozen concentrate, 12 oz/can, per 16 oz. $2.51 $2.60 $2.75 Peanut butter, creamy, per pound $2.86 $2.90 $2.57 Beans, dried, any type per pound $1.43 $1.44 $1.43 Whole wheat bread, per pound $2.08 $1.93 $1.98 Percentage change in average retail price for 1 year Orange juice Beans Peanut butter Whole wheat Cheddar Eggs American Milk -20% 0% 20% Page 3
US Average Prices for Selected Fruits & Vegetables $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 January 2013 Per Pound Price Fruit and Vegetable Market News USDA s Agriculture Marketing Service (AMS) releases the National Fruit and Vegetable Retail Report each Friday that features the weekly advertised retail activity and prices on the most commonly consumed fresh fruits and vegetables, including organic products. AMS Market News surveys over 200 retailers web sites covering more than 17,000 individual stores across the US. The AMS report provides weighted average retail prices at both regional and national levels. According to the report, the top 5 featured commodities this past week were apples, potatoes, grapes, salad, and oranges. The retail report is available on the Portal Web site. Please visit the websites below to read the full Fruit and Vegetable Market News report: (http://marketnews.usda.gov/portal/fv) or (http://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/fvwretail.pdf) Page 4
Commodity Forecasts The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is a monthly publication released by USDA that provides comprehensive forecasts of US and world supply and demand for major grains, soybeans, cotton, and sugar, and US livestock products. The report provides an analysis of the most current condition of the agricultural commodity markets. The following highlights are from the most recent publication, released on March 8, 2013. The projected seasonal average of U.S. farm prices in 2012/13 for wheat are estimated at $7.65 to $7.95 per bushel, lowered 10 cents at the midpoint from last month s range and compared with $7.24 per bushel average last year (2011/12 marketing year); projected corn prices are estimated at $6.75 to $7.45 per bushel, lowered 20 cents from last month s high end of the range and compared with $6.25 per bushel average in last year (2011/12 marketing year); and projected soybean prices are estimated at $13.80 to $14.80 per bushel, down 20 cents on both ends of last month s range and compared with $12.35 per bushel average last year (2011/12 marketing year). In the Media Food prices drop slowly, even with good weather According to a USA Today Article released on February 21, 2013, The outlook for farmers is good this year, says the USDA's chief economist, but shoppers will wait awhile before higher crop yields push prices down. Despite a punishing drought across much of the country last year, farmers should see yields rise this year if the weather cooperates, and the prices they get for their crops will stay at their current levels, the U.S. Department of Agriculture's chief economist said Thursday. To read the full article, visit: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2013/02/21/weather-key-to-next-years-foodprices/1936049/ 2001 S Street, NW, Suite 580 Washington, DC 20009 202-232-5492 www.nwica.org Page 5