Harmonised Approach for ARD Implementation Strategy: common strategic framework, data and

Transcription

1 Harmonised Approach for ARD Implementation Strategy: common strategic framework, data and meta data template and diagnostic tool Ivo Havinga United Nations Statistics Division/DESA Presentation prepared for ICAS V October Kampala, Uganda

2 Outline of presentation A. Introduction A.1 ARD Global Strategy A.2 ARD Statistical Information System B. Common strategic framework and common structure of tools B.1 Strategic framework from diagnosis, vision to programme B.2 Tools: Data template, meta data template and diagnostic tool B.2.1 Data template Harmonized data template for ARD statistics B.2.2 Meta data template B.2.3 Diagnostic tool C. Way forward Annex 1: Harmonized data template for ARD statistics a preliminary version Annex 2: SDMX Meta data structure for data template 2

3 Introduction ARD Global Strategy Mandated by the United Nations Statistical Commission (UNSC) in recognition of a general decline in the quality and availability of agricultural rural development (ARD) statistics, especially in developing countries Coordinated by FAO with support from the World Bank Started in 2008 and completed in 2009, under the supervision of a UNSC Friends of the Chair Group, chaired by Eduardo Nunes of Brazil Approved by UNSC at its meeting in February 2010 Friends of the Chair are now preparing an implementation plan to be presented to UNSC in 2011, which include the development of minimum core set of statistics for agriculture and rural development 3

4 Introduction ARD Statistical Information System Better statistics are fundamental to support evidence based monitoring and evaluation of growth and sustainable development for agriculture Better statistics are at the heart of achieving the Millennium Development Goals through improved monitoring and evaluation of poverty reduction and well being of rural population and its dependence on agricultural growth and sustainable development Better statistics mean adopting an integrated statistics vision on economic statistics through a system wide approach, away from stove piping sectoral statistical systems 4

5 Common Strategic Framework and Common Tools Actively pursue harmonization of common strategic framework and related tools across macroeconomic and sectoral statistical programs, including ARD as sectoral statistics Strategic framework: Adopt common system wide consultative process: from diagnosis of current situation, through vision on remedying short comings to implementation of national and sectoral capacity building programme Tool 1: Adopt common structure for data template of minimum core data set for national and sectoral structural and short term statistics Tool 2: Adopt common structure for meta data template for national and sectoral structural and short term statistics Tool 3: Adopt common structure for diagnostic tools for self assessment of strengths and weaknesses of national and sectoral statistical production process 5

6 Strategic Framework From Diagnosis, Vision to Programme Diagnosis and vision document /statistical agenda for improving the availability and quality of the basic economic statistics and institutional arrangements through system-wide consultation with stakeholders, policy planners and other users including the academia and business community through a vision document for minimum core set of short-term and structural indicators with agreed human and financial resources and donor/external coordination Implementation program based on vision document/statistical agenda with agreed coordination and monitoring indicators 6

7 Tools: Data template, meta data template and diagnostic tool In response to economic and financial crisis, UNSD and Eurostat in February 2009 initiated a series of three international seminars, Ottawa (May 2009), Scheveningen (December 2009) and Moscow (November 2010) Need for improved monitoring of the rapid and systemic changes in the global real economy and the financial markets and the impacts on vulnerable countries and population groups. Series of three seminars recommend to UNSC 2011 an agreed data template for short term and structural statistics, related metadata structure, related diagnostic tool and related communication and dissemination methods and techniques 7

8 Common Structure for Data Template Ottawa/Scheveningen seminar identified a data template with 12 categories based on best practices: IMF- SDDS template and Eurostat Principal European Economic Indicators (PEEI) template, now adopted by PGI Website Common structure with 12 categories: National accounts, production and turnover indicators, prices, labour market indicators, sectoral indicators for the external, financial, government, non-financial and household sector, financial and real estate market indicators, and economic sentiment indicators UN Global Assessment on Data Template determined country practices on availability, timeliness, periodicity and dissemination of indicators 8

9 Harmonized Data Template for ARD Statistics Rearranged ARD core data set by common data domains, data categories and indicators (full details in annex of presentation, few examples of data categories in next slides) first draft, further work to be done Still to be determined for ARD core set: periodicity and timeliness of data indicators, e.g. monthly/quarterly for production, turnover and price indicators but annual for national accounts Link with common meta data structure based on SDMX standard Link with common diagnostic tool organised by International Classification of Statistical Activities 9

10 Advantage: Harmonized Data Template for ARD Statistics (continued) Alignment of short term and structural ARD statistics with national accounts and supporting short term and structural statistics used for Implementation Program of 2008 SNA and supporting statistics Alignment of statistical production process of sectoral ARD statistics and national accounts statistics By extension: adoption of common meta data and classifications, registers and frames, data sources, aggregation and integration framework (national accounts based), dissemination standards and institutional arrangements 10

11 Common Data Template for Economic Statistics Minimum Core Set of Statistics for Global Strategy for Agriculture and Rural Development Set 1 National accounts Group of variables Key variables Core data items 1.1 Annual national accounts, early estimate 1.2 Annual national accounts, GDP full release by expenditure Final expenditure Final expenditure Trade Trade Final household consumption Gross fixed capital formation, private Exports of goods Imports of goods by production Output Value added by income Income Income Income Compensation of employees/mixed income Net operation surplus Consumption of fixed capital Food and other agro-processed products by division Agricultural or forestry machinery and parts thereof Crops, livestock, forestry, fishery and aquacultural products Crops, livestock, forestry, fishery and aquacultural products Crop and animal production, forestry, fishing and aquaculture Crop and animal production, forestry, fishing and aquaculture Crop and animal production, forestry, fishing and aquaculture Crop and animal production, forestry, fishing and aquaculture 11

12 Common Data Template for Economic Statistics Minimum Core Set of Statistics for Global Strategy for Agriculture and Rural Development Set 2 Production and turnover Group of variables Key variables Core data items 2.1 Production index for industry, by major division/sections 2.2 Production index for construction Rural infrastructure Construction 2.3 Turnover index for retail trade by major division Output Industrial production Core divisions: agroprocessing industries Core divisions: construction for buildings and dwellings, civil engineering Final expenditure Turnover Core groups,classes: food products 2.4 Turnover index for industry by major division Output Turnover Core divisions: agroprocessing industries 2.5 Turnover index for other services by major division 2.6 New orders index for industry by major ISIC division (for those that work on order) Output Core divisions: agroprocessing industries 2.7 New orders index for construction (building permits or housing starts) Rural infrastructure Core divisions: construction for rural building permits and housing starts 12

13 Common Data Template for Economic Statistics Minimum Core Set of Statistics for Global Strategy for Agriculture and Rural Development Set 2 Production and turnover Group of variables Key variables Core data items 2.8 Commodity production (as relevant) Output Crops Core crop products Output Livestock Core livestock products Output Forestry Core forestry products Output Fisheries Core fishery products Output Forestry Core forestry products Output Aquacultural products Core aquacultural products Output Processed food products Core agro-processed food products Inputs Water Volume for irrgation Inputs Fertilizers Core products Inputs Pesticides Core products Inputs Seeds Core crops Inputs Feed Core crops Inputs Machinery and equipment Core agricultural or forestry machinery and parts thereof 13

14 Common Data Template for Economic Statistics Minimum Core Set of Statistics for Global Strategy for Agriculture and Rural Development Set 3 Prices Group of variables Key variables Core data items 3.1 Consumer price index Prices Consumer price 3.2 Producer price index Prices Producer price 3.3 Export price index Prices Export price 3.4 Import price index Prices Import price Set 4 Labour market indicators 4.1 Unemployment 4.2 Unemployment rate Core crops, livestock, forestry, fishery and aquacultural products Core crops, livestock, forestry, fishery and aquacultural products Core crops, livestock, forestry, fishery and aquacultural products Core crops, livestock, forestry, fishery and aquacultural products 4.3 Employment total and by economic activity Employment Total number of persons employed Core divisions: crop production, animal production, forestry, fishing 4.4 Hourly wage rate 4.5 Hours of work 14

15 Common meta data structure based on SDMX structure Short meta data structure for ARD statistics to minimize burden of reporting (e.g. one page) linked to comprehensive SDMX meta data structure (Annex 2) Chapters of ARD short meta data structure (proposed): Statistical presentation (classification system, statistical concepts and definitions, base period) Institutional mandate (legal acts and agreements) Release policy (release calendar and user access) Frequency of dissemination Timeliness and punctuality Data revision (data revision policy, data revision practice) Statistical processing (source data, frequency of data collection, data collection, data validation, data compilation, data adjustment) 15

16 Diagnostic Tool: Approach System-wide approach: for basic economic statistics and related institutional environment Diagnostic approach: for structured assessment of current strengths and weaknesses of statistical production process Self assessment approach: for national ownership of the global initiative for the 2008 SNA implementation strategy Global and regional coordination approach: for sharing self assessment for coordination and monitoring of the regional and global program 16

17 Information structure Diagnostic Tool Elements for planning, monitoring and evaluating the implementation other partners in statistical capacity building UN International Classification of Statistical Activities Apply its taxonomy of statistical activities for relevant economic, social and environment and institutional/managerial domains 17

18 Diagnostic Tool - Assessment of Statistical Production Process Statistical production process Outputs Domain 2: Economic statistics Domain 1: Income and expenditure of households and labor statistics Statistical production process Inputs methodology for data collection, processing, dissemination and analysis Domain 4.1 Metadata Domain 4.2 Classifications Domain 4.3 Data sources Domain 4.4 Data integration, editing and data linking Domain 4.5: Dissemination and communication Domain 4.6: Statistical confidentiality and disclosure protection Domain 4.7 Data analysis 18

19 Diagnostic Tool - Assessment of Statistical Production Process Statistical production process Strategic managerial issues activities which are applicable to all statistical activities under domain 2 and some selected activities under domain 1 Domain 5.1 Institutional framework and principles Domain 5.2 Statistical programmes; coordination within national statistical systems Domain 5.3: Quality framework and management of performance Domain 5.4: Management and development of human resources Domain 5.5: Management and development of technological resources (including standards for exchange and data sharing 19

20 Diagnostic Tool Structure Structure of minimum set of core indicators: Domain Data Category Data Indicator(s): each indicator under these blocks has 2-6 quality questions to assess its adequacy or otherwise as it exists in the system. Data category by economic activity Metadata and data reporting Statistical registers and censuses Surveys and administrative sources Technical cooperation and capacity building, priorities and plans for improvements Data category by institutional sector Metadata and data reporting Technical cooperation and capacity building, priorities and plans for improvements 20

21 Way forward Assess merits for Global ARD Implementation Program to harmonize and align its ARD information system with: Common strategic system wide consultative approach Common data template structure for minimum data set of structural and short term statistics Common structure of meta data description Common structure of diagnostic tool 21

22 Annex I Harmonized data template for ARD statistics a preliminary version 22

23 Common Data Template for Economic Statistics Minimum Core Set of Statistics for Global Strategy for Agriculture and Rural Development Set 1 National accounts Group of variables Key variables Core data items 1.1 Annual national accounts, early estimate 1.2 Annual national accounts, GDP full release by expenditure Final expenditure Final expenditure Trade Trade Final household consumption Gross fixed capital formation, private Exports of goods Imports of goods by production Output Value added by income Income Income Income Compensation of employees/mixed income Net operation surplus Consumption of fixed capital Food and other agro-processed products by division Agricultural or forestry machinery and parts thereof Crops, livestock, forestry, fishery and aquacultural products Crops, livestock, forestry, fishery and aquacultural products Crop and animal production, forestry, fishing and aquaculture Crop and animal production, forestry, fishing and aquaculture Crop and animal production, forestry, fishing and aquaculture Crop and animal production, forestry, fishing and aquaculture 23

24 Common Data Template for Economic Statistics Minimum Core Set of Statistics for Global Strategy for Agriculture and Rural Development Set 2 Production and turnover Group of variables Key variables Core data items 2.1 Production index for industry, by major division/sections 2.2 Production index for construction Rural infrastructure Construction 2.3 Turnover index for retail trade by major division Output Industrial production Core divisions: agroprocessing industries Core divisions: construction for buildings and dwellings, civil engineering Final expenditure Turnover Core groups,classes: food products 2.4 Turnover index for industry by major division Output Turnover Core divisions: agroprocessing industries 2.5 Turnover index for other services by major division 2.6 New orders index for industry by major ISIC division (for those that work on order) Output Core divisions: agroprocessing industries 2.7 New orders index for construction (building permits or housing starts) Rural infrastructure Core divisions: construction for rural building permits and housing starts 24

25 Common Data Template for Economic Statistics Minimum Core Set of Statistics for Global Strategy for Agriculture and Rural Development Set 2 Production and turnover Group of variables Key variables Core data items 2.8 Commodity production (as relevant) Output Crops Core crop products Output Livestock Core livestock products Output Forestry Core forestry products Output Fisheries Core fishery products Output Forestry Core forestry products Output Aquacultural products Core aquacultural products Output Processed food products Core agro-processed food products Inputs Water Volume for irrgation Inputs Fertilizers Core products Inputs Pesticides Core products Inputs Seeds Core crops Inputs Feed Core crops Inputs Machinery and equipment Core agricultural or forestry machinery and parts thereof 25

26 Common Data Template for Economic Statistics Minimum Core Set of Statistics for Global Strategy for Agriculture and Rural Development Set 3 Prices Group of variables Key variables Core data items 3.1 Consumer price index Prices Consumer price 3.2 Producer price index Prices Producer price 3.3 Export price index Prices Export price 3.4 Import price index Prices Import price Set 4 Labour market indicators 4.1 Unemployment 4.2 Unemployment rate Core crops, livestock, forestry, fishery and aquacultural products Core crops, livestock, forestry, fishery and aquacultural products Core crops, livestock, forestry, fishery and aquacultural products Core crops, livestock, forestry, fishery and aquacultural products 4.3 Employment total and by economic activity Employment Total number of persons employed Core divisions: crop production, animal production, forestry, fishing 4.4 Hourly wage rate 4.5 Hours of work 26

27 Common Data Template for Economic Statistics Minimum Core Set of Statistics for Global Strategy for Agriculture and Rural Development Set 5 External sector indicators Group of variables Key variables Core data items 5.1 Exports and imports (of goods and services) Trade Exports and imports of goods Core crops, livestock, forestry, fishery and aquacultural products 5.2 International investment position (IIP), specify balances and components 5.3 Official reserve assets 5.4 External debt (by sector, maturity and foreign currency) Debt Official development assistance Agricultural sector related external debt, including ODA Set 6 Financial sector indicators 6.1 Central Bank net foreign assets 6.2 Central Bank domestic lending Debt Domestic lending Agricultural sector related domestic debt 6.3 Central Bank reserve money 6.4 Depository corporations net foreign assets 6.5 Depository corporations domestic lending Debt Domestic lending Agricultural sector related domestic debt Depository corporations broad money liabilities Other financial corporations balance sheet, assets and liabilities by sector Debt Domestic lending Agricultural sector related domestic debt 6.8 Financial corporate profits 6.9 Financial corporate debt 27

28 Common Data Template for Economic Statistics Minimum Core Set of Statistics for Global Strategy for Agriculture and Rural Development Set 7 General government sector indicators Group of variables Key variables Core data items 7.1 Revenue 7.2 Expense Government finance Government finance Government revenue Government expenditure Agriculture sector related revenues: taxes on agriculture and agri-processed domestic goods, exports and imports. Agriculture sector related expenditure: goods and services, subsidies, grants, social benefit 7.3 Net operating balance (= Revenue Expense) 7.4 Net acquisition of non-financial assets Government finance Government expenditure Agriculture sector related expenditure: strategic stocks, land and other assets 7.5 Expenditure 7.6 Net lending/net borrowing (= Revenue - Expenditure) 7.7 Gross debt Set 8 Household sector indicators 8.1 Household disposable income Income Disposable income Rural households 8.2 Household saving Income Saving Rural households 8.3 Household debt Debt Domestic borrowing Rural households 8.4 Other as relevant: debt service and principal payments 28

29 Common Data Template for Economic Statistics Minimum Core Set of Statistics for Global Strategy for Agriculture and Rural Development Set 9 Non financial sector sector indicators Group of variables Key variables Core data items 9.1 Non-financial corporate profits 9.2 Non-financial corporate debt 9.3 Other as relevant Set 10 Financial market indicators Interest rates, as relevant short and long term money and bond market rates Exchange rates, as relevant spot and forward markets Market Interest rates Agricultural sector related interest rates 10.3 Nominal and real effective exchange rate 10.4 Stock market indicators Market Stock market index Agriculture and agroprocessing corporations 10.5 Others as relevant : spreads Set 11 Real estate market indicators 11.1 Residential property price index 11.2 New house sales 11.3 Existing house sales 29

30 Common Data Template for Economic Statistics Set 12 Sentiment indicators 12.1 Consumer confidence Minimum Core Set of Statistics for Global Strategy for Agriculture and Rural Development 12.2 Business confidence Sentiment Business confidence 12.3 Composite Business Cycle Indicators Agri-based corporations: business situation, production, sales, orders, employment, prices Leading Indicator Coincident Indicator Lagging Indicator Set 13 Agri-environmental indicators Environment Environment Environment Environment Environment Soil degradation Water pollution Air emission Area harvested and planted Yield/productivity of area harvested Crop production Crop production Stock of resources Land cover and use Land area Stock of resources Livestock Core live animals, number Stock of resources Machinery Core machinery and equipment, number 30

31 Annex 2 SDMX Meta data Structure for Data Template 31

32 Meta data template- SDMX Structure description Statistical presentation (Data description, Classification system, Sector coverage, Statistical concepts and definitions, Statistical units, Statistical population, Reference area, Time coverage, Base period) Unit of measure Reference period Institutional mandate (Legal acts and agreements, Data sharing) Confidentiality (Policy, Data treatment) Release policy (Release calendar, Release calendar access, User access) Frequency of dissemination Dissemination format (News release, Publication, Online database, Micro data access, Other) 32

33 Meta data template- SDMX Structure description Accessibility of documentation (Documentation on methodology, Quality document, Quality management, Quality assessment) Relevance (User needs, User satisfaction, Completeness) Accuracy and reliability (Overall accuracy, Sampling error, Non-sampling error) Timelines and punctuality (Timeliness, Punctuality) Comparability (Comparability geographical, Comparability overtime) Coherence (Coherence cross domain, Coherence internal) Data revision (Data revision-policy, Data revisionpractice) Statistical processing (Source data, Frequency of data collection, Data collection, Data validation, Data compilation, Data adjustment) 33