INTENSIFICATION OF RAINFED LOWLAND RICE PRODUCTION IN WEST AFRICA: PRESENT STATUS AND POTENTIAL GREEN REVOLUTION

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1 The Developing Economies, XLIV-2 (June 2006): INTENSIFICATION OF RAINFED LOWLAND RICE PRODUCTION IN WEST AFRICA: PRESENT STATUS AND POTENTIAL GREEN REVOLUTION Blackwell Oxford, DEVE The June 44 2Original RAINFED THE Developing 2006 The DEVELOPING UK Article Author(s) Publishing LOWLAND Economies & Ltd ECONOMIES Institute RICE PRODUCTION of Developing Economies IN WEST AFRICA Takeshi SAKURAI Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (PRIMAFF), Tokyo, Japan First version received June 2005; final version accepted December 2005 The objective of the current paper is to explore the factors influencing the expansion and intensification of rice production in rainfed lowland sites. The village/lowland-level data show the following: (1) the expansion of lowland rice cultivation has been driven by population pressure and accessibility to the market; and (2) the adoption of water control technologies is enhanced by the existence of immigrants and accessibility to the market. Rice cultivator data show that investment in water supply canals is influenced by land tenure security and that the canals enhance yield. This suggests that investment in water control technologies in rainfed lowland is necessary to realize a rice Green Revolution. Considering the fairly high average yield already achieved with water control technologies and the vast area of lowlands without water control technologies in rural area, there is a high potential of a rice Green Revolution in rainfed lowland in West Africa. Keywords: Rainfed lowland; Green Revolution; Water control technologies; Recent modern rice varieties; West Africa JEL classification: Q12, O55, O32, O13 I. INTRODUCTION Cereal production per capita has been stagnant for more than 30 years in sub-saharan Africa, although it has grown approximately 1.5 times in Asia (FAO 2002). This contrast is explained by the fact that the Green Revolution has not taken place in sub-saharan Africa. Although cereal yields in sub-saharan Africa have been increasing during this period, their growth rates are much lower than those achieved in Asia (FAO 2002). Naturally, this raises a concern about future food security in sub-saharan Africa. If we look at the performance of each crop, we Earlier versions were presented at the workshop on the Green Revolution in Asia and Its Transferability to Africa, Tokyo, December 8 10, 2002, and at the workshop on the Green Revolution in Asia and Its Transferability to Africa, Durban, August 13 16, The author was affiliated with WARDA and JIRCAS when this paper was prepared. He appreciates the comments from the participants of the workshops, particularly from Keijiro Otsuka and Robert E. Evenson. doi: /j x

2 rainfed lowland rice production in west africa 233 find that the gap between regional supply and demand for rice has been widening because of a shift in diet away from traditional coarse grains caused by urbanization (WARDA 1997). As a result, rice imports in West Africa reached 2.8 million tons in 1998, and are projected to be between 6.5 and 10.1 million tons in 2020 (Lançon and Erenstein 2002). This raises important questions: (1) if West African countries can afford it; and (2) whether Asian countries can supply it at cheap prices as in the 1990s. It is in this context, the present paper examines the potential for achieving a Green Revolution in rice in West Africa. It is well known that while the Green Revolution of rice in Asia was led by the release of modern rice varieties (MV), irrigation and chemical fertilizer were necessary conditions to achieve their potential high yield. In West Africa too, varietal improvement of rice has a significant impact on the regional economy: according to Dalton and Guei (2003) gains in output per hectare are estimated to be US$232 in irrigated lowland ecosystem, US$163 in rainfed lowland ecosystem, and US$32 per hectare in rainfed upland ecosystem. Gains are highest in irrigated ecosystem such as that in Asia. Most of modern irrigation facilities were constructed in the early 1970s in West Africa. In Côte d Ivoire, for example, among 39 irrigated schemes surveyed by WARDA, one-third were established between 1970 and 1974 (Randolph 2000). As in the case of the Philippines (Hayami and Kikuchi 1978; Kikuchi, Maruyama, and Hayami 2001), irrigation investment in Côte d Ivoire should be explained by the high price of rice in the world market in the early 1970s. However, after this period donors rarely support large investments in the construction of new irrigation facilities because of the low price of rice. Reflecting low rice price, the share of irrigated lowland in rice production environment in West Africa has remained only 12% of total farm area, and the rest is shared almost equally by rainfed lowland and rainfed upland ecosystems. 1 Further expansion of upland rice production is limited by weed problems and soil degradation caused by reduced fallow periods. However, lowland ecosystem has a relatively high potential for expansion: it occupies an estimated 20 million to 50 million hectares in West Africa, but only 10 to 25% of the lowland area is under cultivation (WARDA 1998). In addition, considering the gap between potential and actual yields (1.4 tons per hectare versus tons per hectare according to WARDA [1999]), it is reasonable to argue that rice production in rainfed lowland has a high potential for intensification, which would facilitate meeting the growing demand for rice in West Africa. Thus, the 1 This is a simplified classification of rice production ecology in West Africa where rainfed lowland includes inland valley bottoms, flood plains, and mangrove swamps although the share of the latter two is only 10% of total farm area (modified from Dalton and Guei [2003]). In the rest of this paper, however, lowland implies only inland valley bottoms. The lowlands are clearly distinguishable from the uplands in terms of their topographical positions. The uplands are well-drained crests and slopes located in the higher position, whereas the lowlands are in the lower position subject to flooding during the rainy season (WARDA 1998).

3 234 the developing economies current paper investigates the present status of rice production in rainfed lowland ecosystem, particularly focusing on the adoption of MV and water control technologies, and then analyzes its potential for intensification. 2 II. STUDY SITE AND DATA COLLECTION Côte d Ivoire was selected for the present study. Côte d Ivoire is the second largest rice producer next to Nigeria in West Africa. In 2000, Côte d Ivoire produced 0.7 million tons of milled rice and imported 0.4 million tons of milled rice, whereas Nigeria produced 2.6 million tons and imported 0.5 million tons (FAO 2002). In both countries, most of the rice supplied is consumed as food, and per capita consumption was 63.9 kg per year and 22.3 kg per year in Côte d Ivoire and Nigeria in 2000, respectively (FAO 2002). Thus, obviously rice is a more important staple food in Côte d Ivoire, and the shortage of domestic supply is more serious there. There are three rice production ecosystems in Côte d Ivoire: upland, rainfed lowland, and irrigated lowland. In terms of area, their shares are 74%, 19%, and 7%, respectively (Dalton and Guei 2003). The share of upland rice ecosystem is quite high compared with other areas in West Africa, because upland rice production is a traditional practice and rice is the most important staple food in the humid forest zone in the southwestern part of this country. This is true to other countries in the forest zone with high precipitation such as Guinea and Sierra Leone. However, rice production in rainfed lowland has been traditionally practiced in the northern part of this country that has less annual rainfall and belongs to the savanna zone. People in the savanna zone (not only in Côte d Ivoire but also in the southern Burkina Faso and Mali) have been migrating to the humid forest zone to work in cocoa plantation and forestry, and as a result rice production in rainfed lowland is now found in all the agroecological zones of Côte d Ivoire. In addition, during the 1970s, massive interventions took place through the creation of a state agency for rice development, i.e., Société de Développement de la Riziculture (SODERIZ), as well as foreign aid 2 In this paper, water control and irrigation are distinctive. Water control is usually done by simple bunds and short canals from/to water sources to control water flow. Even with this kind of water control technologies, the lowland is still regarded as rainfed. However, irrigation is a large system to supply and drain water typically facilitated by a modern dam and canals lined with concrete. The difference is not only the size and technologies, but also the way how it is disseminated. Irrigation facilities are designed and constructed by the government or donors in most cases, whereas bunds and canals in rainfed lowlands are usually constructed by individual farmers who learn the technologies through informal channels or sometimes extension workers. Another important difference is that irrigation usually requires collective action among users in water distribution and facility maintenance, whereas no cooperative activities are necessary in most cases of water control technologies that are adopted and managed individually. Water control by this definition obviously differs from so-called minor irrigation project because the latter is introduced by external projects and usually has modern irrigation facilities although the size is small by Asian standard.

4 rainfed lowland rice production in west africa 235 particularly from Taiwan (Le Roy 1998; Wakatsuki 1999). They constructed modern irrigation facilities and brought MV. The irrigated rice production has influenced the technology in rainfed lowland rice production: not only water control technologies such as bunds and canals, but also MV and transplantation technology have been disseminated from the irrigation project sites to rainfed lowlands. However, since the beginning of the 1990s, such interventions have been ceased. Therefore, what we observe now is considered to be a static equilibrium state after the intervention in terms of technology adoption. The area around the city of Bouaké was selected for data collection because of its function as a big inland market and its agroecological location. Bouaké, the second largest city in Côte d Ivoire with a population of 462,000 in 1998, is located in the center of this country and acts as the interface between the interior and coastal regions. All the traffics going from the coast to the interior Sahelian countries (Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger) passes through Bouaké and thus it plays an essential role in the distribution of food products, not only locally but also in the subregion. Agroecologically it is situated in the transitional zone between the humid forest and the savanna zones in Côte d Ivoire. Yam has been the most important staple food in villages in this area, but these days villagers do not produce enough yams to feed themselves throughout the year. During several months when yam is not available, they consume maize, cassava, and rice. They grow yam, maize, and cassava on upland for self-consumption, although they purchase rice when they do not produce it. They grow rice both on upland and lowland: lowland rice production was introduced by immigrants as well as government intervention in the past in this area, whereas upland rice production is very limited. As for cash crops, cocoa, an important cash crop in the humid forest zone, does not grow well and cotton, an important cash crop in the savanna zone, does not grow well either. Rice in lowland is one of the few significant cash crops in this area. To have large diversity in the sample particularly with respect to market access and population pressure within the same agroecological zone, 179 villages were randomly selected from 857 villages in 11 contiguous sub-prefectures around Bouaké. The number of villages sampled in each sub-prefecture was determined, so that it would be proportional to the total number of villages in each sub-prefecture (sampling rate was approximately 21%). In the selected villages, village-level information on lowland use was collected by means of group interviews of responsible people. Then, we conducted a rice cultivator survey for the sample selected from lowland areas in the city of Bouaké. Since the cultivator survey focuses on the impact of the technology adoption on the efficiency of rice production, all the sample cultivators are from the urban area of Bouaké, so that they could have fairly equal market access and population pressure. We identified 35 distinctive lowland areas used for rice production in the 2000/01 cropping season in the city of Bouaké and randomly sampled 64 rice cultivators. We interviewed them and their landlords, and measured their plot size using the global positioning system.

5 236 the developing economies No Use TABLE 1 Current Lowland Use at Lowland Level (% of number of lowland plots) Rice Vegetables Maize Tree Plantation Rice + Vegetables Rice + Maize Rice + Tree Plantation Rainy season Dry season Notes: 1. Total number of lowland plots is The percentages do not add up to 100% for each season because of multiple use. III. RESULTS OF THE LOWLAND SURVEY Of the 179 sample villages, 157 villages have access to lowlands. The total number of lowlands accessible from the 157 villages is Table 1 shows the use of lowlands in both the rainy and dry seasons. More than half of the sample lowlands are not currently used (i.e., as of 2000/01), and rice cultivation is the single dominant use in the rainy season. In the dry season, no rice is grown except for a few lowlands equipped with modern irrigation facilities. A. Expansion of Rice Cultivation Lowland without water control can be classified as marginal land because the profitability of lowland rice production might not be as high as crop production on upland such as maize, considering the high demand for labor input for lowland rice production. Therefore, with respect to the expansion of lowland rice cultivation, hypothesis 1 is that population pressure reduces the availability of upland, and hence induces the use of lowlands. 4 Among 317 lowlands surveyed, there are several lowlands that have never been used for rice cultivation, and the share of such lowlands is 17.4%. By analyzing factors that distinguish lowlands used at least once for rice cultivation and those 3 The observation unit of the lowland survey is lowland, which is distinguishable by the local people based on geography as well as land ownership and hence countable. The size of one lowland is very diverse: the sample mean is 21 hectares and its standard deviation is 65 hectares. Moreover the number of plots and the number of cultivators also vary depending not only on its size but on many other factors because not all the lowland area is under cultivation in most cases, and when full area is not used, plots are often scattered in a lowland area. 4 This is a hypothesis to be tested empirically in this paper in the particular context of rice production in rainfed lowland. However, there is already some evidence that is the basis to postulate this hypothesis. Expansion is the first part of Boserup s theory (1965, 1981) that when population increases, as far as the exploitation of new land is cheaper than the increase of inputs in the existing plots, area expansion takes place. This is confirmed in many parts of sub-saharan Africa, for example see the review carried out by Lele and Stone (1989).

6 rainfed lowland rice production in west africa 237 TABLE 2 Determinants of Usage of Lowland Plots for Rice Cultivation Explanatory Variables Village-level variables Village population: Population density 0.01 (0.00)*** Population growth rate 0.01 (0.08) Immigrant indicators: Percentage of immigrants in total population 0.01 (0.02) Percentage of males in female population 0.02 (0.01)*** Dominant ethnic group in the village: Baoulé 1.98 (0.42)*** Tagbana 1.20 (0.54)** Primary school 0.00 (0.01) Market access: Price ratio of paddy and fertilizer 2.86 (1.27)** Distance to sub-prefectural capital 0.03 (0.01)** Lowland-level variables Distance from village center 0.05 (0.04) Acreage of lowland area 0.00 (0.00) Water source: Permanent stream 0.48 (0.38) Seasonal stream 0.12 (0.29) Constant 3.45 (0.81)*** Total number of sample lowlands 304 No. of lowlands ever used for rice cultivation 249 Fraction of correct predictions 0.84 Notes: Dependent variable is a binary dummy, whose value is unity if the lowland was used for rice cultivation at the time of this study or in the past, and zero otherwise. Probit model was used to estimate the coefficients. Thirteen lowlands with modern dam irrigation facilities are excluded from the 317 lowlands identified. ***, **, and * represent statistical significance at the 1%, 5%, and 10% level, respectively. Standard errors are in parentheses. never used, the determinants of the expansion of lowland rice cultivation will be identified. Hence, a binary dummy variable for used lowland is used as the dependent variable: lowlands used at least once take the value of 1, whereas lowlands never used take the value of 0. In the lowlands that have never been used for rice cultivation, once the decision not to grow rice was made in the past, this decision has been continuously made up to now. Hence, either time invariant variables (e.g., distance to the sub-prefectural capital) or current variables (e.g., population density as of 1998) will explain the difference between the two types of lowlands. Table 2 presents the regression results. Population density has a positive, significant effect. Therefore, hypothesis 1 is supported. In this context, it is

7 238 the developing economies interesting to know the role of immigration. The percentage of immigrants in the total village population has no significant effect and the proxy variable for immigration (the percentage of male population to female population) has a negative, significant effect. 5 Therefore, it is not immigration but population pressure in general that has induced villagers to grow rice in lowlands. Distance from the sub-prefectural capital has a negative, significant effect, whereas paddy/fertilizer price ratio at the village level has a positive, significant effect, suggesting that lowland rice cultivation has been disseminated from the capital, either informally or formally through extension agency, and/or that market access (i.e., higher farm gate price) might have promoted the expansion of rice cultivation. B. Intensification of Rice Cultivation In the current study, the adoption of water control technologies is used as a proxy for the intensification of rice production at the lowland level. Table 3 shows that 13 lowlands, or 4.1%, of 317 total sample lowlands are equipped with modern dam irrigation facilities with canals and bunds. Except for these lowlands, rice is grown under rainfed conditions. Of all sample lowlands, approximately 71% have no water control technologies. Bunds (23.3%) are more frequently adopted than canals 5 The male/female population ratio at village level is used as a proxy for immigrant population (the sample mean is 89.9%, and its standard deviation is 17.6%): a village that receives a lot of immigrants should have a high male/female ratio, whereas a village that loses population because of emigration should have a lower male/female ratio because males are more likely to migrate. Since there is no labor-demanding industry in rural area of the study site except for a few forestry villages, there are not many immigrants living in the villages. Rather some villagers out-migrate to the forest zone in the south where forestry and cocoa plantation absorb a lot of labor. However, cities in the study site historically have received many immigrants from the north of Côte d Ivoire as well as Burkina Faso and Mali, where rice in rainfed lowlands including flood plains is a traditional subsistence crop. Most of them are engaged in commercial activities in the cities, but some have resettled in rural areas. Not only because of this historical fact but also according to indigenous villagers perception, immigrants living in rural villages are from nonindigenous ethnic groups. The number of such immigrants is small, and most of the villages have no immigrants at all (immigrants population share in a village is 1.73% on average and its standard deviation is 8.26%). The immigrants in rural areas are usually engaged in commercial activities, but some practice agriculture. The resettlement pattern seems to be spontaneous based on personal relationship since few variables except for the proximity to the city explain the immigrants in the sample villages. As explained, immigrants do not seem to choose villages where rice is grown in lowlands, but there is a doubt about such reverse causality. An exogeneity test for the migrant variables (the percentage of immigrants in total population and the percentage of male to female) cannot reject the exogeneity of those variables in the regression. Hence, the immigrant variables are assumed to be exogenous.

8 rainfed lowland rice production in west africa 239 Modern Dam Irrigation TABLE 3 Water Control Technologies at Lowland Level (% of number of lowland plots) Rainfed Lowlands (Without Modern Irrigation) No Water Control Technologies Bunds Supply Canal Drain Canal Bunds + Both Canals All the lowlands Lowlands under rice cultivation Notes: 1. Total number of lowland plots is 317. Number of plots currently under rice cultivation is The percentages do not add up to 100% because of adoption of several technologies. (13.6%), implying that in some cases farmers create bunds without canals. 6 If only lowlands under rice cultivation are considered, the share of lowlands without water control becomes 43% of 129 lowlands. This indicates that lowlands without water control technologies tend to be abandoned more frequently than those with water control technologies. Water control technologies are not indigenous in the study site; they might have been brought by immigrants or disseminated from the cities. Therefore, hypothesis 2 is that the rate of immigrant population has a positive effect on the adoption of water control technologies, and hypothesis 3 is that distance from the capital city has a negative effect on it. In addition, market accessibility increases profitability of rice production and consequently enhances the probability of the improved technology adoption. Hence, hypothesis 4 postulates that the high output price (paddy/fertilizer price ratio at farm gate) has a positive effect on adoption of water control technologies. Finally, as shown in Table 1, there are quite a large number of lowlands that are not currently used for rice production. It might imply that lowland is not yet a scarce resource. If lowland is scarce relative to labor force, however, population pressure will induce intensification, as predicted by Boserup (1965) and Hayami and Ruttan (1985). Therefore, 6 As noted in footnote 3, the observation unit is lowland, but since the adoption of water control technologies is individual, all the plots in a lowland are not necessarily equipped with water control technologies in some cases even if the lowland is classified as a lowland with water control technologies. This paper, however, considers the gap between the cases of non-adoption and the cases where at least one cultivator uses water control technologies is critical in terms of technology adoption because other cultivators in the same lowland can easily follow the pioneer if the technologies are profitable.

9 240 the developing economies TABLE 4 Determinants of Adoption of Water Control Technologies at Lowland Level Explanatory Variables Bunds Canals Village-level variables Village population: Population density 0.00 (0.00) 0.00 (0.00) Population growth rate 0.01 (0.08) 0.02 (0.12) Immigrant indicators: Percentage of immigrants in total population 0.05 (0.04) 0.10 (0.04)** Ratio of males to females in the population 0.02 (0.01)*** 0.01 (0.01)** Dominant ethnic group in the village: Baoulé 1.09 (0.34)*** 0.69 (0.38)* Tagbana 0.31 (0.56) 0.12 (0.78) Primary school 0.01 (0.01) 0.02 (0.01)* Market access: Price ratio of paddy to fertilizer 3.07 (1.17)*** 4.50 (1.30)*** Distance to sub-prefectural capital 0.04 (0.02)*** 0.04 (0.02)* Lowland-level variables Distance from village center 0.05 (0.04) 0.02 (0.04) Acreage of lowland area 0.00 (0.00) 0.01 (0.00) Water source: Permanent stream 0.61 (0.38) 0.09 (0.55) Seasonal stream 1.22 (0.36)*** 1.90 (0.07)*** Constant 2.58 (0.78)*** 4.46 (1.03)*** No. of lowlands ever used for rice cultivation No. of lowlands with water control technologies Fraction of correct predictions Notes: Dependent variable is binary dummy, whose value is unity if the lowland has adopted water control technologies (bunds and water supply canals), and zero otherwise. Probit model is used to estimate the coefficients. Thirteen lowlands irrigated by modern dam irrigation are excluded from the analyses. ***, **, and * represent statistical significance at the 1%, 5%, and 10% level, respectively. Standard errors are in parentheses. hypothesis 5 is that higher population density induces the adoption of water control technologies. 7 Table 4 shows the results of probit analyses on the determinants of the adoption of water control technologies. The regression functions are estimated for bunds and 7 With this regards, evidence in sub-saharan Africa is mixed because intensification depends on functioning input as well as output markets that are often imperfect in sub-saharan Africa. In the comprehensive review on the intensification of sub-saharan agriculture, Lele and Stone (1989), distinguishing policy-led intensification from autonomous intensification which Boserup (1965, 1981) assumes in her theory, conclude that population pressure does not automatically induce higher yield in sub-saharan Africa. But we do not know yet if Boserup s original theory is supported in sub-saharan Africa once the market imperfection is controlled (in this paper it is the market access). This is the idea behind hypothesis 5.

10 rainfed lowland rice production in west africa 241 water supply canals separately, although 37 lowlands have both bunds and water supply canals. First, the ratio of male to female population has a positive significant effect on both bunds and canals. In addition, the percentage of immigrants in total village population has a positive significant effect on canals. Since they are indicators of immigrant population, the results support hypothesis 2. 8 Second, the distance to sub-prefectural capital city reduces the probability of the adoption of water control technologies, whereas the paddy/fertilizer price ratio increases it as expected. That is, both hypotheses 3 and 4 are supported. Third, however, neither population density nor population growth rate has significant effect on the adoption of canals and bunds, which rejects hypothesis 5. This suggests that intensification is induced not simply by increased population or its density, but rather by increased lowland users and labor force, or effective population pressure as captured by the immigrant indicators. It is also found that the level of human capital investment in the past as measured by the number of years since the establishment of a primary school in the village, noted as primary school in Table 4, has a positive effect on adoption of canals. IV. A. Water Control Technologies RESULTS OF THE CULTIVATOR SURVEY As shown in the previous sections, the adoption of canals and bunds depends on the access to the central market, Bouaké. In fact, adoption rates of water control technologies in Bouaké are much higher than in villages outside Bouaké as shown in Table 5. Almost all sample cultivators (i.e., 62 out of 64 cultivators) constructed and TABLE 5 Adoption of Water Control Technologies in Bouaké at Cultivator Level (%) Modern Dam Irrigation No Water Control Technologies Rainfed Lowlands (Without Modern Irrigation) Bunds Supply Canal Drain Canal Bunds + Both Canals Notes: 1. Total number of cultivators is The percentages do not add up to 100% because of adoption of several technologies. 8 As explained in footnote 2, water control technologies are adopted individually with little support of external projects, and as explained in footnote 5 immigrants came to villages spontaneously with a diverse motivation. Hence it is not so plausible that immigrants intentionally select villages where water control technologies are already adopted. However, since there is a doubt about such reverse causality, exogeneity tests for the migrant variables (the percentage of immigrants in total population and the percentage of male to female) are carried out. But the exogeneity of those variables cannot be rejected in both of the regressions, and accordingly the immigrant variables are assumed to be exogenous.

11 242 the developing economies maintained bunds. As for canals, there are two types of canal that can be distinguished based on the usage: water supply canals and drainage canals. Among 64 sample cultivators, 53 cultivators have adopted at least one of the two types of canal. The number of cultivators who have adopted supply canals is 42 and that for drainage canals is 38. Although their adoption rates are similar, the present paper does not consider the drainage canal because drainage canals are constructed more temporarily than supply canals. Since rice cultivators are sampled within the city of Bouaké, such factors as population density, paddy price, and market access are considered to be roughly equal among the sample. Then, among other factors, the current paper focuses on land tenure security because adoption of such technologies is long-term investment in land improvement. The sample cultivators can be classified based on the residential status: 54 cultivators are immigrants and nine cultivators are indigenes who are considered to have inherent land rights in Bouaké. 9 In the case of immigrants, whose land they are cultivating is important: out of 54 cases, 32 are the cases where landowners are indigenes, 12 are the cases where landowners are other immigrants, 10 and 10 are the cases where the plots are on land owned by city government, army, or public/private companies. Even in the city of Bouaké, the sale market of agricultural land is not developed, and immigrants usually cannot be landowners. Generally, those who first exploit virgin land are given quite strong use rights, and in the long run they become as if the real owners although there is no formal authorization. The indigenous landowners can be further classified based on inheritance. In 13 cases out of the 32 indigenous landowners, present landowners obtained the land by inheritance from their fathers, whereas in 19 cases, present landowners obtained the land by inheritance from their uncles of their mother side or extended family members other than their mother-side uncle. The indigenous ethnic group, Baoulé, belongs to the Akan language group and is known to share similar tradition of matrilineal systems. In their traditional system, land is owned collectively by an extended family and the head of the extended family plays the chief decision-maker regarding the allocation of land, and hence is considered to be the owner of the communal land. This land ownership is inherited, with the succession of the position of the extended family head, from an uncle on the mother s side to his nephew. It is widely observed that the communal land ownership has been individualized because of population pressure (e.g., Quisumbing et al. 2001), and individualized land is inherited from father to his child (or children). It is generally considered that owners of individualized land have stronger land rights than those of family land. 9 One out of the 64 sample cultivators is dropped because of imperfect data for subsequent regression analyses. Fifty-nine of the 63 sample cultivators are tenant farmers in the sense that the plots are on the land claimed by other persons. The inherent rights of the indigenes do not necessarily imply that the cultivators are the landowners, but the indigenes are considered to be granted the rights to use communal land. 10 They include one case where the immigrant cultivator claims that the plot belongs to himself.

12 rainfed lowland rice production in west africa 243 In summary, this data set includes two types of cultivators: indigenes and immigrants, and in the case of immigrants there are four types of landowners: institutions (land owned by the city government, army, or public/private companies), indigenes (communal), indigenes (individualized), and immigrants. 11 Consequently, there are five types of cultivators. For the immigrant cultivators who do not have secure land right at the beginning, the improvement of tenure security is crucial if he/she wants to continue cultivation. With this regard, it is hypothesized that if a cultivator can enhance its security by investing in water supply canals, he/she is more willing to make such investment. 12 Specifically, since indigenous communal landowners and immigrant landowners are considered to have unstable property rights as explained above respectively, there should be some room for cultivators to enhance their rights by investment and hence cultivators might have stronger incentive to invest in land to enhance their rights over the land in comparison with the cases where landowners have well-defined property rights (i.e., indigenous individualized landowners and institutional landowners). 13 Moreover, indigenous cultivators might be uninterested in enhancing land rights since they already have enough security. 11 In the case of indigene cultivators also, there are several types of landowner: owned by cultivators themselves, owned by other family members communally, and owned by other family members individually. The type of landowner might have some effect on the adoption of water control technologies even in the case of indigenous cultivators, but the number of observation of each type is too small to analyze separately in the regression models. Moreover, the difference in indigene cultivators seems to be small. Therefore, this paper deals with them together as indigene cultivators, and focuses on the case of immigrant cultivators. 12 It is well known that investment in land by a cultivator enhances the cultivator s land rights in sub-saharan Africa, for example Atwood (1990), Besley (1995), Sjaastad and Bromley (1997), and Otsuka et al. (2003). However, it is not yet known if it is true in rainfed lowlands in sub-saharan Africa, particularly in the case of immigrant cultivators who do not have inherent land rights. Please note that this right-enhancement effect is rarely observed in Asian countries where land property right is relatively well defined either formally or informally. 13 In the study site, land rental market is informal and no one has a written contract. Usually a fixed rent is agreed at the beginning, but the rental period is not specified. Hence, as far as the tenant pays the fixed rent every year, he/she can use the plot continuously. Since the rent does not depend on the productivity, the landowner is not interested in investment in land to enhance productivity. In this situation, it is only cultivators who have incentive to invest in land. The argument of this paper is that if the investment in land not only increases productivity but also enhances land rights, cultivators should have additional incentive to do it relative to otherwise. There might be two cases of land right enhancement. One is the case where the cultivator will finally be the owner of the land he/she cultivates: in the study site continuous cultivation with massive investment might make it possible in the long run if property rights of the current landowner are not stable. The other is the case where a third person claims the ownership because of the unstable property rights of the current landowner. If the cultivator has already made physically observable investment like bunds and canals, he/she will be able to secure the use rights even under such dispute. These kinds of benefit might not exist if the landowner has secure, well-defined property rights.

13 244 the developing economies Determinants of the adoption of water supply canals are identified by a probit regression where the dependent variable is a binary dummy variable for the adoption of water supply canals and the explanatory variables include either time invariant or current variables as the investment is needed continuously to maintain the canals. With respect to the status of cultivators, a dummy variable for immigrants is used while the benchmark is indigenous cultivators. Since land ownership type matters in the case of immigrant cultivators, three interaction terms are added in the explanatory variables, namely immigrant cultivator*public/institutional ownership, immigrant cultivator* indigenous communal ownership, and immigrant cultivator * indigenous individualized ownership. Hence, the benchmark is the case where immigrant cultivators are on the land owned by immigrants. As shown in Table 6, immigrant cultivators are more likely to invest in water control technologies than indigene cultivators. However, investment by immigrant cultivators on land owned by government/institutions and land owned TABLE 6 Determinants of Water Supply Canals and Modern Varieties at Cultivator Level Explanatory Variables Dummy for Cultivators with Water Supply Canals (Probit Model) Dummy for Cultivators with Recent MV (Probit Model) Cultivator s status (dummy variable): Immigrants cultivators 2.78 (1.29)** 2.38 (1.47) Type of landownership (dummy variables): Immigrants*Indigenous communal 0.41 (0.80) 1.99 (1.37) Immigrants*Indigenous individualized 3.12 (1.14)*** 1.12 (1.30) Immigrants*Public/Institutional 3.25 (1.13)*** 0.72 (1.19) Cultivator s characteristics: Age (10 2 ) 0.44 (2.56) 1.52 (2.89) Sex (1 = male, 0 = female) 0.43 (1.00) 3.35 (1.59)** Years of schooling 0.02 (0.07) 0.18 (0.11) Living in own house (= 1, otherwise 0) 0.64 (0.58) 2.02 (0.97)** Years of rice cultivation experience 0.11 (0.05)** 0.08 (0.06) Plot characteristics: Water source is permanent stream 0.50 (0.99) 0.03 (1.13) Water source is seasonal stream 1.47 (0.71)** 0.80 (1.00) Water source is pond 0.94 (0.98) 5.33 (2.21)** Distance from water source (1,000 m) 0.06 (0.24) 3.16 (1.82)* Walking time from the residence (100 min) 0.02 (0.01)** 0.99 (0.77) Acreage of the plot (ha) 2.36 (1.87) 4.43 (2.57)* Constant 0.65 (1.78) 2.30 (1.88) Fraction of correct prediction No. of positive observations No. of observations Total number of sample is 64, but one is dropped from the analyses because of missing values. ***, **, and * represent statistical significance at the 1%, 5%, and 10% level, respectively. Standard errors are in parentheses. MV = modern rice varieties.

14 rainfed lowland rice production in west africa 245 by indigenes individually is less likely than on land owned by indigenes communally and owned by immigrants. Hence, among immigrant cultivators weak property rights given to landowners (i.e., immigrant landowners and communal landowners) enhances cultivators investment incentive as hypothesized above. As for plot characteristics, canals are more frequently found in plots whose water source is seasonal stream relative to the other water sources including seepage from ground water used as benchmark. In addition, the farther the plot is from the residence, the less likely the plot has a canal, which indicates that canals are constructed by cultivators themselves. B. Modern Rice Varieties In Côte d Ivoire several MV were brought by donors or released by the government during the 1970s when many irrigation projects were carried out. Some of them are still planted in the irrigation sites and have been disseminated through informal channels or by extension agents to rainfed lowland sites. Among them Bouaké 189 is most widely adopted in lowland areas of the study site. It is said that the origin of this variety was Indonesia and was brought by a French agent during the 1970s (Tobita 2000) and that the dissemination of this variety started in 1981 (Diagne 2006). The West Africa Rice Development Association (WARDA) released several rice varieties for irrigated lowland in 1997, but they are not yet widely planted. In fact, according to participatory varietal selection conducted by WARDA, Bouaké 189 is still as popular as the best of WARDA varieties among the participating farmers (WARDA 2002). Table 7 indicates that the adoption rate of MV is quite high in the city of Bouaké: among 64 sample cultivators, 70% of them have adopted Bouaké 189, 13% of them have adopted one of the WARDA varieties, 11% do not know the name of the variety, and the remaining cultivators use minor improved varieties brought in this area in the early 1970s. The current paper classifies Bouaké 189 and WARDA varieties as recent MV and all the others as early MV. 14 The unknown varieties are classified as early MV since they are very unlikely to be either Bouaké 189 or WARDA varieties. If they were either of them, cultivators should know the variety name, since they must have purchased or intentionally obtained them. 14 In Asia, MV are often classified into three groups based on their generations: MV1 (released from the mid-1960s to the mid-1970s), MV2 (released from the mid-1970s to the mid-1980s), and MV3 (released from the mid-1980s to the late 1990s) (Estudillo and Otsuka 2006). In West Africa such classification has not been applied, but Bouaké 189 can be classified as MV2 since it was released in 1981 and WARDA varieties can be classified as MV3 since they were released in the late 1990s. However, this paper classifies them together as recent MV in contrast with early MV which might fall into MV1. Except for WARDA s varieties recently released, all the MV were brought from Asian countries, and hence recent MV is considered to be improved genetically than early MV in terms of yield as well as resistance to environmental stress as in the case of Asian MV. Disadvantage of recent MV relative to early MV is not mentioned in personal communications with researchers, extension workers, and cultivators except for the cost of purchasing seeds of recent MV. However, traditional varieties were not found in the sample rice cultivators in the city of Bouaké.

15 246 the developing economies TABLE 7 Adoption of Modern Rice Varieties (MV) in Bouaké at Cultivator Level (%) Traditional Unknown MV Local Varieties Recent MV Early MV Varieties (Early MV) Bouaké 189 WARDA Varieties Jaya IR5 Others Notes: 1. Total number of cultivators is The percentages do not add up to 100% because of adoption of several technologies. Determinants of the adoption of recent MV are identified by a probit regression (Table 6). The dependent variable is a binary dummy variable for the adoption of either Bouaké 189 or WARDA varieties. With respect to land tenure security, no variable has a significant effect on the adoption. As for cultivator s characteristics, male cultivators are more likely to adopt recent MV as expected. House ownership is assumed to be an indicator of wealth, and its significantly positive coefficient implies that relatively wealthy cultivators adopted recent MV. In fact, many cultivators obtain the seed of recent MV through purchasing: among 44 cultivators who planted Bouaké 189 in the year surveyed, eight cultivators used seed obtained in the same year and five of them bought the seed. Moreover, out of 36 cultivators who used seed reserved by themselves, 27 purchased the seed in the beginning. But no cultivators in the sample used credit to purchase seed. Rather, they used their own income from nonagricultural activities or sales of vegetables. As for plot characteristics, it is found that recent MV are planted less frequently in the case where water source is a pond. This is because ponds are a less reliable water source than streams. In addition, the distance from the water source to the plot and plot size have a weakly significant positive effect. This result is difficult to interpret intuitively. C. Input Use and Rice Yield Finally, the effects of water supply canals and recent MV on input use and yield of paddy production are examined. It is well known that with adequate water control MV such as Bouaké 189 respond well to chemical fertilizer. For example, according to WARDA s on-farm trial in rainfed lowland condition with partial water control, the yield of Bouaké 189 is 4.1 tons per hectare without chemical fertilizer and the yield increases to 5.1 tons per hectare with 100 kilograms of urea per hectare, and the profit increases by 22% by the use of the fertilizer under the current input/output prices in Bouaké (Idinoba et al. 2003). 15 Given this information, the analysis now focuses on the use of chemical fertilizer. 15 The price of paddy is 125 FCFA per kilogram and that of chemical fertilizer is 240 FCFA per kilogram (little difference between NPK and urea).

16 rainfed lowland rice production in west africa 247 TABLE 8 Factor Payments by Water Control Technology and Rice Varieties With Water Supply Canals Recent MV (1) Early MV (2) Without Water Supply Canals Recent MV (3) Early MV (4) Plot size (ha) 0.35 (0.24) 0.26 (0.15) 0.32 (0.18) 0.30 (0.05) Yield of paddy (kg/ha) 3,633 (2,112) 2,896 (1,310) 2,770 (1,340) 2,454 (2,080) Variable input costs (10 3 FCFA/ha): Seed 17.4 (11.9) 15.0 (6.3) 14.3 (8.5) 12.6 (4.8) NPK 7.4 (16.6) 0.6 (1.7) 11.5 (18.3) 1.3 (2.5) Urea 11.5 (18.7) 3.4 (7.9) 10.3 (12.1) 5.0 (10.0) Herbicide 9.0 (10.5) 1.1 (3.0) 17.8 (16.1) 9.4 (12.0) Insecticide 2.4 (5.3) 0.4 (1.2) 1.2 (3.6) 1.6 (3.1) Family labor 299 (215) 307 (159) 291 (241) 128 (83.3) Hired labor 104 (90.9) 86.5 (111) 132 (166) 124 (111) Total variable costs (10 3 FCFA/ha) 451 (244) 414 (144) 479 (276) 281 (104) Value of output (10 3 FCFA/ha) 454 (264) 362 (164) 346 (168) 307 (260) Residual (10 3 FCFA/ha) 3.5 (235) 52 (124) 133 (302) 25.2 (218) Unit costs (FCFA/kg of paddy) 144 (84.0) 153 (51.2) 220 (188) 123 (70.9) No. of cultivators Notes: Standard deviations are in parentheses. FCFA = Franc de la Communauté Financière Africaine; MV = modern rice varieties. Among 64 sample cultivators, 33 cultivators did not use any chemical fertilizer in the season surveyed. Because of this large number of no fertilizer users, the average amount of fertilizer use is 69 kg per hectare including both nitrogen, phosphorous, and potassium (NPK) and urea (standard deviation is 118 kg per hectare). If the no fertilizer users are eliminated, the average use becomes 146 kg per hectare (standard deviation is 138 kg per hectare). With this much fertilizer, paddy yield of the sample cultivators is 3,180 kg per hectare on average with standard deviation being 1,840 kg per hectare. Although the standard deviation is large, this level of average yield is comparable with that of irrigated ecosystem in the Philippines national level: 2,980 kg per hectare in 1997 according to Estudillo and Otsuka (2006). Table 8 compares factor payments among four cases: (1) recent MV with water supply canal; (2) early MV with water supply canal; (3) recent MV without water supply canal; and (4) early MV without water supply canal. As shown in the table, recent MV with water supply canal tend to give higher paddy yield, although the difference is not statistically significant. As for factor payments, there is no significant difference in the cost of seed and labor. The use of chemicals significantly differs: cultivators growing recent MV use significantly more NPK, urea, herbicide, and insecticide particularly under water control condition; and cultivators without canal use more herbicide than those with canal probably because

17 248 the developing economies of a severer weed problem without water control. However, total variable costs do not differ significantly among the four cases. The residual is defined as the difference between the value of output and the total variable costs, and hence is considered to be the return to farm management and land. On average, the residuals are not significantly different from zero implying that lowland rice production is not so profitable even with recent MV, water control, and chemical fertilizer. However, the residual differs significantly between the cases of recent MV with and without water supply canal. That is, if water control technologies are not available, cultivators should choose early MV that might require less input. Finally, the effect of the adoption of water supply canals and recent MV on the use of chemical fertilizer and paddy yield is examined by regression analyses. 16 The first column of Table 9 is the result of regression that explains the use of chemical TABLE 9 Effects of Technology Adoption on Fertilizer Use and Yield at Cultivator Level Explanatory Variables 2SLS Model Chemical Fertilizer Use (kg/ha) Yield (kg/ ha) Water supply canals (endogenous) 16.1 (53.0) 1,340 (730)* Use of recent MVs (endogenous) 53.8 (38.5) 201 (1030) Cultivator s characteristics: Age 2.88 (0.83)*** 15.3 (21.9) Sex (1 = male, 0 = female) 48.7 (48.9) 1,200 (640)* Years of schooling 5.04 (2.73)* 4.71 (63.1) Living in own house (= 1, otherwise 0) 116 (39.8)*** 139 (510) Years of rice cultivation experience 1.54 (1.36) 51.5 (32.4) Plot characteristics: Water source is permanent stream 119 (62.5)* 241 (803) Water source is seasonal stream 116 (61.1)* 1,110 (634)* Water source is pond 179 (79.2)** 1,330 (941) Distance from water source (100 m) 0.30 (0.78) 10.9 (17.1) Acreage of the plot (ha) 16.6 (49.8) 3,550 (1,120)*** Constant 166 (64.7)** 2,900 (1,060)*** R No. of observations Total number of sample is 64, but one is dropped from the analyses due to missing values. ***, **, and * represent statistical significance at the 1%, 5%, and 10% level, respectively. Standard errors are in parentheses. 16 Two dummy variables, the adoption of water control technologies and the adoption of recent MV are used in the regression analyses on chemical fertilizer use as well as paddy yield. Since they are considered to be endogenous in those regressions, two-stage least squares regression is applied where predicted probabilities of the two endogenous dummy variables are used as instrument variables (Wooldridge 2002).