Hatchery Reform in the Pacific Northwest

Transcription

1 Hatchery Reform in the Pacific Northwest WDFW Phase 2 Training May 12 th 2015 Hatchery Scientific Review Group

2 Overview of Presentations Part 1: HSRG principles and key terms Part 2: AHA (All-H Analyzer) and Rollup Tool Part 3: Hatchery Reform Implementation tools

3 The Hatchery Reform Project is a systematic, science-driven review of hatchery programs to achieve two goals: 1. Help conserve naturally spawning populations 2. Support sustainable fisheries (both commercial and recreational)

4 Principles of Hatchery Management GOALS SCIENTIFIC DEFENSIBILITY INFORMED DECISION MAKING

5 The Purpose of Hatcheries Hatchery programs are designed to meet specific management goals: 1) Conservation Goals 2) Harvest Augmentation 3) Both

6 HSRG 201 Definition of terms pnob, PNI, phos Census, effective, gene flow Framework Goals for populations, purpose of hatchery Phases of Restoration Preservation, re-colonization, local adaptation, full restoration Population Designations Primary, Contributing, Stabilizing All-H Analyzer (AHA)

7 Definition of Terms (used to estimate the direction and amount of gene flow) pnob = % Natural Origin fish in the hatchery broodstock phos = % Hatchery Origin fish on the spawning grounds PNI = Proportionate Natural Influence pnob/(pnob+phos)

8 Definition of Terms - continued phos census = % Hatchery Origin fish on the spawning grounds. Rough estimate of gene flow. phos effective = estimated % Hatchery Origin fish on the spawning grounds that actually reproduce (less than phosc). Better estimate of gene flow. PEHC = Proportion Effective Hatchery Contribution. Actual measurement of gene flow through use of genetic techniques. Best estimate of gene flow.

9 Genetic Integration or Segregation Integrated Broodstock Goal: One population, Minimize genetic divergence (Natural-origin fish in broodstock) Segregated Broodstock Goal: Two populations, Allow genetic divergence (Only Hatchery fish in broodstock) Hatchery Natural Hatchery Natural One gene pool Two gene pools

10 HSRG 201 Definition of terms pnob, PNI, phos Census, effective, gene flow Framework Goals for populations, purpose of hatchery Phases of Restoration Preservation, re-colonization, local adaptation, full restoration Population Designations Primary, Contributing, Stabilizing All-H Analyzer (AHA)

11 Framework Goals for Population Biological Significance (designation) Population Status (recovery phase) Harvest Objective (target catch) Purpose of Hatchery Program Harvest Augmentation Integrated or Segregated Conservation Preservation Re-colonization Local Adaptation

12 Goals for Population Biological Significance of the Population Primary Contributing Stabilizing Conservation Goals (status) Preservation (unsustainable) Re-colonization (habitat underutilized) Local Adaptation (sustainable with reduced fitness) Fully Restored (abundant and productive) Harvest Goals Where, when, how much

13 Purpose of Hatchery Program: Harvest Harvest Augmentation Integrated approach (one population) Increase harvestable surplus Maximize PNI (max pnob and min phos) Segregated (two populations) Increase harvestable surplus Minimize phos

14 Purpose of Hatchery Program: Conservation Conservation Goals Preservation (prevent extinction) Re-colonization (populate habitat) Local Adaptation (increase productivity) Safety net (population restored, but vulnerable)

15 HSRG 201 Definition of terms pnob, PNI, phos Census, effective, gene flow Framework Goals for populations, purpose of hatchery Phases of Restoration Preservation, re-colonization, local adaptation, full restoration Population Designations Primary, Contributing, Stabilizing All-H Analyzer (AHA)

16 Phases of Restoration (Classification of Conservation Programs) Phase 1: Preservation Phase 2: Re-colonization Phase 3: Local Adaptation Phase 4: Full Restoration

17 Phase 1: Preservation Objectives Prevent extinction Retain genetic diversity and identity of existing population Increase abundance Ecosystem Conditions Low population abundance Habitat unable to support self-sustaining population. Purpose of Hatchery Program Increase abundance Retain diversity Provide harvest

18 Phase 2: Re-colonization Objective Re-populate suitable habitat from prespawning adult to out-migrating smolt (all life stages). Ecosystem Conditions Underutilized habitat available through restoration and improved access. Purpose of Hatchery Speed colonization Increase spatial diversity Provide harvest

19 Phase 3: Local Adaptation Objectives Meet and exceed minimum viable spawner abundance for natural-origin spawners Increase fitness, reproductive success and life history diversity through local adaptation (reduce hatchery influence by maximizing PNI). Ecosystem Conditions Habitat capable of supporting abundances that minimize risk of extinction, prevent loss of genetic diversity, and promote life history diversity. Purpose of Hatchery Provide harvest (Integrated) Demographic safety net

20 Phase 4: Full Restoration Objective Maintain viable population, based on all viable salmonid population (VSP) attributes using long-term adaptive management. Ecosystem Conditions Habitat restored and protected to allow full expression of abundance, productivity, lifehistory diversity, and spatial distribution. Purpose of Hatchery Provide harvest (Integrated) Demographic safety net

21 Moving between Phases Biologically based triggers (abundance, productivity), rather than timelines. Triggers should allow movement both up and down the Phases. The larger the trigger threshold, the longer local adaptation benefits (e.g., increased productivity) are deferred.

22 Hatcheries can play a role in each Phase of Conservation while still supplying harvest benefits Program can be larger than needed during Preservation or Re-colonization phase. Operate 2 programs (one for conservation ( safety net ), one for harvest) during Local Adaptation or Full Recovery Phase.

23 How HSRG Standards apply during Phases of Restoration 1) Preservation - no phos, PNI standards 2) Re-colonization - no phos, PNI standards 3) Local Adaptation - all standards apply 4) Full Restoration - all standards apply

24 Example of Current Program Redfish Lake Sockeye Program: Preservation (Phase 1) secure genetic resources (completed) Re-colonization (Phase 2) increase abundance and distribution Shift to Phase 3 when NORs reaches 750 Shift back to Phase 1 when NOR+HOR falls to 50 Current phase Local Adaptation (Phase 3) demographic safety net Shift back to Phase 2 when NORs falls below 500

25 HSRG 201 Definition of terms pnob, PNI, phos Census, effective, gene flow Framework Goals for populations, purpose of hatchery Phases of Restoration Preservation, re-colonization, local adaptation, full restoration Population Designations Primary, Contributing, Stabilizing All-H Analyzer (AHA)

26 Population Designations What the HSRG uses (LCRSRP): Primary biologically significant, core, key, highly viable, important to recovery. Historically were a large segment of the population structure. Need to be at low risk of extinction. Contributing of some significance, are viable but lower in abundance than Primary. Contribute to diversity. Stabilizing a population, but may not have ever been a large segment of the population structure.

27 Designation Standards for Populations in Local Adaptation or Recovery Phase Primary Integrated hatchery programs PNI > 0.67, phos < 30% Segregated hatchery programs Contributing phos < 5% Integrated hatchery programs PNI > 0.50, phos < 30% Segregated hatchery programs Stabilizing phos < 10% Integrated hatchery programs current condition Segregated hatchery programs current condition

28 HSRG Broodstock Management Standards Natural Population Hatchery Program Purpose Designation Status Seg.Harv Int. Harv Cons+Harv Cons. Only Fully Restored phos<5% PNI>0.67 PNI>0.67 Primary Local Adapt. phos<5% PNI>0.67 PNI>0.67 PNI>0.67 Re-coloniz. phos<5% Not Specified Not Specified Not Specified Preservation phos<5% Not Specified Not Specified Not Specified Fully Restored phos<10% PNI>0.50 PNI>0.50 Contrib Local Adapt. phos<10% PNI>0.50 PNI>0.50 PNI>0.50 Re-coloniz. phos<10% Not Specified Not Specified Not Specified Preservation phos<10% Not Specified Not Specified Not Specified Stabil. Fully Restored Current conditions Current conditions Current conditions Local Adapt. Current conditions Current conditions Current conditions Current conditions Re-coloniz. Current conditions Current conditions Current conditions Current conditions Preservation Current conditions Current conditions Current conditions Current conditions

29 HSRG 201 Definition of terms pnob, PNI, phos Census, effective, gene flow Framework Goals for populations, purpose of hatchery Phases of Restoration Preservation, re-colonization, local adaptation, full restoration Population Designations Primary, Contributing, Stabilizing All-H Analyzer (AHA)

30 Part 2: All-H Analyzer and Rollup Tool

31 Principles of Hatchery Management GOALS SCIENTIFIC DEFENSIBILITY INFORMED DECISION MAKING

32 All-H Analyzer (AHA) The HSRG developed AHA in 2005, and AHA rollup in 2007 as part of the Columbia Basin Hatchery Review, completed in 2009 The All-H Analyzer incorporates information about the 4 H s: hatchery, harvest, hydro, and habitat The purpose of AHA is to provide managers with information on the potential outcomes of different management strategies AHA is used to estimate production (NORs, HORs), fitness, harvest levels, etc. for a given population and management strategy

33 What is AHA Really? AHA is a gene flow calculator. It uses 4 H s as inputs. Currency is adult spawning fish (wild & hatchery). Calculates the number of natural and hatchery fish produced and where they end up spawning. Result is an estimate of the fitness loss due to domestication. It estimates fitness gain when domestication pressure is removed (estimates the increased productivity of natural stocks).

34 Examples of AHAs 1) Single population AHA 2) Columbia Basin AHA Rollup

35 Single Population AHA

36 Single Population AHA Evaluates one population at a time. Provides long-term estimates of production (NORs, HORs) and harvest for different management strategies for that population Provides long-term (80 generation) equilibrium estimate for fitness of natural population. Doesn t consider strays from other programs outside the basin.

37 Hatchery Habitat Marine L. Mainstem U. Mainstem Terminal Hatchery Habitat Marine L. Mainstem U. Mainstem Terminal phos All H Analyzer (AHA) Population (Ctrl + Page Up/Down to Scroll) Subregion/Subbasin Species/Race Tucannon Spring Chinook 1-Tucannon Spring Chinook 296 Habitat Hydro Harvest Hatchery Patterns Update Productivity (Adult) Min NOR Escape Smolt Productivity Ad. Capacity % Kelt Sm. Capacity AHA V13.1 (Rollup) Population Management Intent: Harv&Hatchery Strategy: Population Recovery Designation: Ocean Surv Baseline SAR Vary? (Y/N) y y Juv Passage Surv. Adjusted Productivity Adult Passage Adj. Capacity Purpose Harv - Marine Harv - L. Mainstem Harv - U. Mainstem Harv -Terminal Total Exploitation Rate Broodstock Composition Type Broodstock by Source Brood Exported (from HOR Surplus) Destination for HOR Returns Productivity of Hatchery Fish Patterns shown here are assigned to the population from the AHA or ROL file. Red cells indicate patterns are not assigned to this population/scenario in the rollup application. The shown pattern needs to be added to the application, or a different pattern should be assigned to this population in the ROL/AHA file. NORs NORs NORs NORs NORs pnob-goal PNI Cons/Harv/Both Local Imported Smolt Release ,556 Export Goal/Realized Strays 1 % to Hatchery % to Nat. Spawn. 20% 80% 20% 80% Recruits/Spawner Fitness? [Y / N] 3.0 y 3.2 y Harvest ---> Hatchery Historic ,120 Habitat -----> Hydro -----> Apply & Recalculate 0 Primary Current No Hat , ,120 HORs HORs HORs HORs HORs phos-goal phos-realized Int/Seg/Step/None pnob 50% 0.51 Cons 0 Current Habitat Current Hydro Current Harvest phos 48% Int pnob 50% None 0 0 Primary Current Habitat BIOP Future Current Harvest y phos None 1-Tuc 2 Realized Spawning Composition PNI pnob

38 AHA Rollup contains data for all Columbia River populations of salmon and steelhead

39 More Data in AHA Rollup

40 And more data.

41 Rollup View

42 Advantages of the AHA Rollup Contains all populations in the Columbia River Basin (including Snake). Has data on the H s for each population. Distributes strays across populations (using basic matrix, with some validation using CWTs). Ability to change hydro or harvest assumptions universally for all populations. Can roll up production (NORs, HORs) and harvest by species, region, ESU.

43 Part 3: Tools for Hatchery Reform Implementation

44 Tools for Hatchery Reform Implementation Several tools have been developed that incorporate AHA and the following components: Up-to-date management database Key Assumptions about the population (working hypothesis) Status and Trends data Biological Targets Decision Rules Management Targets for upcoming season

45 Hatchery management in the face of uncertainty and variability Biological Targets are expressed in terms of biological indicators (e.g. average NOS, phos, and PNI). Biological targets don t change from year to year. They may be defined as 5-year running averages. Management Targets are expressed in terms of controlled variables (e.g., annual release #, pnob, catch). Management targets may vary from year to year based on status and trends and run forecast. Decision Rules link management targets to biological targets. They define the right thing to do each year given the circumstances (i.e., status and trends and forecasts).

46 Hatchery management in the face of uncertainty and variability KEY ASSUMPTIONS (AHA Inputs) AHA BIOLOGICAL TARGETS (AHA Outputs) ISIT DECISION RULES Annual MANAGEMENT TARGETS (ISIT Outputs)

47 Examples of Hatchery Reform Implementation 1) Chief Joseph Hatchery Program 2) Redfish Lake Sockeye Program 3) Willapa Bay

48 Chief Joseph Hatchery Program Goals Biological Targets for Okanogan Summer/Fall Chinook: 7,500 total spawners 5,250 natural origin spawners (NOS) Total phos (all programs) < 30% Segregated program phos <5% PNI > 0.67 Increase temporal and spatial diversity of spawning/rearing populations Harvest Goals: Harvest full allocation Increase % of individual tribal member harvest

49 In-Season Implementation Tool (ISIT) An ISIT was developed to help managers make annual decisions about how to manage the population: Hatchery production: # of smolt releases Broodstock management: # of HOB and NOB Escapement: targets for NORs and HORs Harvest levels: targets for HORs and NORs Weir management: removal targets for HORs The purpose of the tool is to help the program meet long term Conservation and Harvest goals

50 ISIT and the Annual Program Review In-Season Implementation Tool Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Key Assumptions (Working Hypothesis) Status and Trends Decision Rules Biological and Management Targets Annual Program Review Results from Research and M&E, External to Program Results from Program M&E Post-Season Performance Review --Run Reconstruction Conservation and Harvest Goals Pre-season Forecast In-Season Updates M&E Results

51 Key Assumptions KEY ASSUMPTIONS Biological Integrated Program Natural Production Baseline Targets Transition 1 Transition 2 Long-term Segregated Prog Productivity (Smolts/Spawner) Capacity (Smolts) 807, , , ,784 0 Juv Passage Survival 27.00% 27.00% 27.00% 27.00% 0.92% Ocean Survival 4.10% 4.10% 4.10% 4.10% Adult Passage Survival 83.00% 83.00% 83.00% 83.00% Fitness PNI 0.56 < Total phos 50% > 30% 43% 42% 42% 100% Segr. phos 1% < 5% 1% 2% 2% Ocean Harvest Rate 29% 29% 29% 29% 20% Lower Columbia Harvest Rate (Zones 1-6, Mouth to MCN) 5% 5% 5% 5% 2% Upper Columbia Harvest Rate (MCN to Wells) 2% 2% 2% 2% 23% Terminal Harvest Rate (Post Wells) 1% 1% 1% 1% 5% Natural Origin Spawners 3,454 < 5,250 3,639 3,296 3,296 0 Hatchery Production 7,500 Local Brood Yearling Release 576, ,000 1,000,000 1,000, ,000 Sub-yearling Release - 300, ,000 SAR (yearling) 1.43% 1.43% 1.43% 1.43% 1.43% SAR (sub-yearling) 0.30% 0.30% 0.30% 0.30% 0.30% Return Rate to Okanogan 98% 98% 98% 98% 20% pnob 50% 100% 30% 30% 0% NOB Relative Reproductive Success 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% Ocean Harvest Rate 29% 29% 29% 29% 29% Lower Columbia Harvest Rate (Zones 1-6, Mouth to MCN) 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% Upper Columbia Harvest Rate (MCN to Wells) 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% Pre-terminal Harvest Rate (Ocean to Wells) 42% 42% 42% 42% 42% Terminal Harvest Rate (Post Wells) 14% 14% 14% 14% 90% Hatchery Surplus 6 3,494 4,773 4,773 3,479 Average Terminal HOR Run 4,766 6,620 8,275 8,275 4,137 Expected HOS 4,031 2,800 3,500 3,

52 NOR Escapement HOR Returns to Wells Dam Smolts released Catch Harvest Rates Escapement PNI or phos Status and Trends 6,000 Terminal Harvest 100% 14,000 Natural Spawning Escapement 90% 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000-80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, % 50% 30% 10% -10% CCT Recreational NOR HOR NOS HOS Effective phos PNI 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Predicted Okanogan NOR run from early Wells Dam counts 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 - Hatchery Releases and Returns 800, , , , , , , ,000 0 Dam Count HOR Returns to Wells Dam Integrated Hatchery Releases

53 Decision Rules DECISION RULES Criteria for transitions: Current -> Transition Facilities completed and tested, full brood available Transition 1 -> Transition or 5000 NORs (5-year rolling average) Transition 2 -> Long Term year running average NORs: 8,251 Select a Phase: Transition 1 Biological Targets for the Selected Phase Transition 1 Baseline Transition 1 Transition 2 Long-term Integrated Program Segregated Program Minimum NOR escapement Smallest viable hatchery program 100, , , , ,000 Max % of NOR used for Broodstock 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% Max Number Yearlings 800, , ,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 Max Number Sub-yearlings 300, ,000 pnob Trigger (NOR run) 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 pnob 100% 100% 100% 30% 30% Max Number Yearlings 500, , , ,000 Max Number Sub-yearlings 400, ,000 - Backfill w/ HORs (Y, N) N N N N N

54 Management Targets MANAGEMENT TARGETS 2014 <-- Most recent year included in running averages Recent History: Use 5 year average Management Targets based on Okanogan NOR Forecast Average NOB 287 HORs retained in Fisheries 539 Harvest* Average HOB 101 Incidental Loss of NORs 89 Average pnob 74% *Partial source of broodstock Hatchery Return of HORs to Hatchery 64 Average NOS 5,749 and Weir* HORs retained at Weir 1,656 Average HOS 2,378 *Partial source of broodstock Average phos 29% Natural Origin Brood (NOB) 613 Average PNI 0.72 Integrated Hatch. Origin Brood (HOB) -Okan 0 Hatchery Projected Annual pnob-okan 100% Program Cum pnob 88% Expected Returns to Wells Dam (most recent update): Smolt Release-Okanogan 1,100,000 NOR Return 10,196 HORs from Integrated Program 3,915 Segregated Hatch. Origin Brood (HOB) -CJH 498 HORs from Segregated Program - Hatchery Smolt Release-CJH 900,000 Runsize Prediction for: 2015 Nat. Origin Spawners (NOS) 9,494 Preseason forecast (Columbia) 73,000 Natural Hat. Origin Spawners (HOS) 1,656 Applies until: 7/15 Spawning Total Number of Spawners 11,150 Wells Dam Count thru 7/15 - Escapement phos 12% Okanogan NOR Forecast: 10,196 PNI 0.89 HOR Forecast: 3,915 Projected Status of Biological Indicators*: Average NOS 7,010 Average phos 24% Average PNI 0.79 *Expected values of Biological Targets if Management Targets are met.

55 ISIT Designed to Help Track Progress Toward Program Goals STATUS OF BIOLOGICAL INDICATORS (5-year Running Averages) Program Projected Status Status in 2014 Biological Targets in 2015 NOS 5,250 5,749 7,010 phos 30% 29% 24% PNI

56 Examples of Hatchery Reform Implementation 1) Chief Joseph Hatchery Program 2) Redfish Lake Sockeye Program 3) Willapa Bay

57 Redfish Lake Sockeye Program Goals Conservation program with phased approach and specific triggers: Preservation (Phase 1) secure genetic resources (completed) Re-colonization (Phase 2) increase abundance and distribution Shift to Phase 3 when NORs reaches 750 Shift back to Phase 1 when NOR+HOR falls to 50 Current phase Local Adaptation (Phase 3) demographic safety net Shift back to Phase 2 when NORs falls below 500

58 Broodstock Management Tool (BMT) A Broodstock Management Tool (BMT) was developed to help managers make annual decisions about how to manage the hatchery and captive broodstock program: Hatchery production: # of smolt releases Broodstock management: # of HOB and NOB Captive broodstock program Escapement: targets for NORs and HORs The purpose of the tool is to help the program meet its long term Conservation goals

59 Sliding Scale Management Biological Targets Phase 2 NOR return > 750 Anadromous NOR+HOR > 250 Return of NOR+HOR > 6000 Genetic diversity Key Assumptions Natural prod. potential Passage SAR Age structure In-hatchery survival Decision Rules Mean forecast Redfish Lake Weir NOR 100 Redfish Lake Weir HOR 800 Genetics Run Forecast Management Targets NOB= 50 HOB= 400 HOB CB 974 Release= pnob= NOS= 50 HOS= 400 HOS CB = 626

60 Linking Decision Rules to Outcomes 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Simulation of Redfish Lake Sockeye Recovery Program NOB HOB NOS HOS HOS-CB HOR Surplus Phase

61 Examples of Hatchery Reform Implementation 1) Chief Joseph Hatchery Program 2) Redfish Lake Sockeye Program 3) Willapa Bay

62 Willapa Bay Program Goals Harvest is the primary objective (commercial and recreational) The programs must also be managed consistent with conservation goals for natural spawning populations Coordinated management of multiple populations: 6 Chinook populations 6 coho populations 6 chum populations

63 Willapa Bay Chinook Populations Recovery Phase Recent Hatchery Program(s) Biological Targets Populations Designation Current Phase Purpose Program 1 Type Abundance Target Bear River Chinook Stabilizing Local Adaptation No Hatchery None 306 Naselle River Chinook Primary Local Adaptation Both Segregated 1,547 5% Nemah River Chinook NA NA Harvest Segregated North River Chinook Contributing Local Adaptation No Hatchery None % Palix River Chinook Stabilizing Local Adaptation No Hatchery None 104 Willapa River Chinook Stabilizing Re-Colonization Both Integrated 1,181 OPEN NA NA No Hatchery None 0 pnob phos (Total) PNI phos (Segr.) The Life Cycle Model is designed to help managers make coordinated decisions about populations with a range of different designations, phases, and hatchery programs.

64 Willapa Bay Life Cycle Model Predicts annual outcomes for natural and hatchery populations and provides a more realistic picture of what is likely to happen in the short term. Allows for implementation of dynamic harvest and hatchery policies based on annual abundance. Presents outcomes as a range, rather than a point estimate (emphasizes uncertainty). Incorporates multiple populations and accounts for population interactions.

65 AHA Naselle River Chinook Click here to Select Population BASELINE CURRENT PLAN 4/3/15 Set PLAN 1 To Baseline Population Recovery Designation: Primary Primary OPEN Saved Baseline OPEN Saved PLAN 1 Phase Transition Trigger: Recovery Phase: Local Adaptation #REF! SAVE BASELINE Local Adaptation SAVE PLAN 1 Hatchery Purpose: Hatchery Program Type: Both Segregated No Hatchery None Both Integrated No Hatchery None Scenario Name: Go To Dashboard Description: Both Go To Populations None Baseline Go To Baseline Data Entry Option 1a #REF! Go To Hatchery Strategy None Habitat Potential Smolt to Adult Survival Productivity Capacity Productivity Capacity Productivity Capacity Adults , , , ,150 Smolts Ocean Surv. Tot. SAR Passage Surv.: Juv. Adults Adjusted: Prod. Capacity , , , #REF! , Harvest Rates Unm. (NORs) Marked (HORs) Unm. (NORs) Marked (HORs) Unm. (NORs) Ocean Willapa Bay Commercial Willapa Bay Recreational In-River Total Exploitation Rate: Hatchery Program Target: pnob phos Realized: pnob phos Broodstock Smolt Release BS Export Realized BS Import Homing Rate Nbr of Strays Hatch. Recr/Spawner Fitness Expected Long-term Average Outcomes % 6.0 5% 65% 3,000,000 Y - 15% 15% % - 80% 6.0 Y % 7% 504,416 Weir Efficiency - HOR Adults Outplanted Weir Efficiency - HOR Adults Outplanted 1 5% #REF! 8% phos: 65% PNI: - phos: 7% PNI: ,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, NA 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Y NA 65% 6.0 Y - -

66 Output from Life Cycle Model SPAWNER ABUNDANCE (NOS-100 projection) 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, NOS Option 1a Esc. Target AHA Long-term Projection NOS Baseline 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, SPAWNER ABUNDANCE (First 10 years) NOS Baseline Esc. Target

67 Accounts for Variability in Ocean Survival Due to Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

68 Evaluation of Different Management Alternatives Example only

69 Hatchery Reform Principles and Recommendations of the Hatchery Scientific Review Group April 2004 Columbia River Hatchery Reform System-Wide Report February 2009 Review of the Elwha River Fish Restoration Plan and Accompanying HGMPs January 2012 On the Science of Hatcheries: An updated perspective on the role of hatcheries in salmon and steelhead management in the Pacific Northwest June 2014

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71 Examples of Current Programs Chief Joseph Hatchery Program (S/F Chinook) Biological Targets Goal Current Status* Goal Current Status** pnob 100% 74% 10% 10% phos eff < 30% 29% N/A N/A PNI > N/A N/A *Current status tracked as 5-year running average **In re-colonization phase - no phos or PNI goals. Redfish Lake Sockeye Program phos eff calculation for CJHP Chinook: 2378 effective HOS (5-year average) 5749 NOS (5-year average) 2378/( ) = 29% PNI = 0.74/( ) = 0.72

72 Examples of Current Programs Program Goals Chief Joseph Hatchery Program (S/F Chinook) Harvest and Conservation Redfish Lake Sockeye Program Conservation (Re-colonization phase) Hatchery Type Integrated and Segregated Integrated Biological Targets Goal Current Status* Goal Current Status** pnob 100% 74% 10% 10% phos eff < 30% 29% N/A N/A PNI > N/A N/A *Current status tracked as 5-year running average **In re-colonization phase - no phos or PNI goals.

73 Examples of Current Programs Population Designation Chief Joseph Hatchery Program (S/F Chinook) Primary Redfish Lake Sockeye Program Primary Program Goals Harvest and Conservation Conservation (Re-colonization phase) Hatchery Type Integrated and Segregated Integrated Biological Targets Goal Current Status* Goal Current Status** pnob 100% 74% 10% 10% phos eff < 30% 29% N/A N/A PNI > N/A N/A *Current status tracked as 5-year running average **In re-colonization phase - no phos or PNI goals.