Risk Assessment Prioritizing Maintenance and Optimization Programs to Maximize Level of Service

Transcription

1 Risk Assessment Prioritizing Maintenance and Optimization Programs to Maximize Level of Service Roland Bradshaw, EngD, MBA, MSc, CEng, MICE - Senior Asset Management Engineer Elia Edwards, M.A.Sc., P.Eng. Group Manager / Discipline Lead Water NWOWWC- 57 th Annual Conference, Thunder Bay, ON October 28, 2011

2 Presentation overview Introduction Asset management Performance risk and risk assessment Current challenges Risk assessment and decision-making Capital / O&M program planning Questions?

3 Asset management Asset management is defined as systematic and co-ordinated activities and practices through which an organization optimally manages its physical assets, and their associated performance, risks and expenditures over their lifecycle for the purpose of achieving its organizational strategic plan (PAS55, British Standard Institution (BSI) 2003)

4 Capital asset life-cycle Owner Operator Capital Planning Process Engineer Needs Assessment Conceptual & Detailed Design Operations and Maintenance Construction and Commissioning

5 Whole-life cost optimization Optimize level of service, risk and whole-life cost Optimize capital cost vs. lifecycle costs

6 Performance risk Risk is defined as the potential for realizing unwanted adverse consequences to human life, health, property, or the environment; estimation of risk is usually based on the expected value of the conditional probability of the event occurring times the consequence of the event given that it has occurred (Society for Risk Analysis, 2004)

7 Critical review of risk ownership [Liable Party] [Sector] Capital Plan Prioritize [Affected Party] [Sector] B 1 D Concept A Engineer B Owner C Operator D Public 1 Economic 2 Health/Safety 3 Environmental Needs Today Design A 1/2/3 Maintenance B/C/D Construct A/C 2 C 2/3 C/D Operations Commission B 1 C 2 D 2

8 Current challenges Key stakeholders (Operations/Maintenance personnel) often not represented through the various stages of the capital planning and engineering design and construction processes Capital planning often does not consider lifecycle costs and considerations Risks often not well understood Risks often not well incorporated in decisionmaking processes

9 Sound decision-making process Make credible and defensible asset management decisions Risk Performance Level of service Financial Data-driven decision-making Understanding of historic and required level of asset reliability for the desired level of service

10 Asset reliability Asset Performance Review access, operability and maintainability Equipment failure Operator complaints Work orders Replacement parts Monitor operational incidents / accidents Treatment process upsets Regulatory Level of service Review non-compliance Environmental Operational health and safety Public health and safety

11 Risk assessment Risk = (Probability) * (Severity of Consequence) What is your strategic objective? What can go wrong? How likely is it to occur? What are the (adverse) consequences? What are the financial, social and environmental costs?

12 Risk assessment Specific risk mitigation management strategies ALARP As low as reasonably practical (European legal definition)

13 Risk assessment and decision-making Employ risk assessment into all stages of the asset life-cycle Capital planning Design Long-term operations and maintenance Develop sound asset management decisions Risk = Cost (to someone) Risk reduction = benefit Benefit / Cost Analysis

14 Risk assessment and decision-making Realize effective and efficient allocation of resources Maintenance and optimization improvements often yield a higher benefit / cost ratio Data-driven decision-making process facilitates prioritization of these programs

15 Risk assessment tools Tool HAZOP HAZCON HAZCOMM Access, Lifting Maintenance Reviews Failure Reporting, Analysis and Corrective Action System Reviews Computerized Maintenance Management Data Review Failure Mode Effect Criticality Analysis Reliability Analysis Treatment Process Performance Review Consequence of Failure Models Applied Stage Design Construction Commission Design Needs Assessment Maintenance Planning Needs Assessment Maintenance Planning Design Design Design Needs Assessment Optimization / Maintenance Planning Design Needs Assessment Maintenance Planning

16 Treatment performance optimization

17 Decision-making support Decision-making Application Layer Engine Treatment Process Performance Monitoring Condition Monitoring Cost models Maintenance Management system Asset Inventory

18 Maintenance / optimization prioritization Financial including life-cycle costing Geo-referenced Treatment process performance data PSAB data Condition assessment

19 Capital / O&M program prioritization

20 Conclusions Optimizing asset performance is the single biggest opportunity to efficiently minimize cost to deliver the desired level of service Optimization and maintenance planning foster safe operation of your capital assets Risk assessment tools and techniques are readily available to support decision-makers Planning Engineering Operations and Maintenance We need to make sure we use them

21 Questions Roland Bradshaw, EngD, MBA, MSc, CEng, MICE - Senior Asset Management Engineer Associated Engineering Asset Management Center of Excellence Suite A Hannover Drive St Catharines, ON, Canada, L2W 1A4 Tel: x210 bradshawr@ae.ca Elia Edwards, M.A.Sc., P.Eng. Group Manager / Discipline Lead Water Associated Engineering Suite The East Mall Toronto, ON, Canada M9B 6E2 Tel: x264 edwardse@ae.ca