HPC Market Update, ISC17 June Addison Snell, Christopher Willard, Ph.D., Laura Segervall

Transcription

1 HPC Market Update, ISC17 June 2017 Addison Snell, Christopher Willard, Ph.D., Laura Segervall

2 Intersect360 Research in year history of HPC analyst business Covering high performance data center markets, including traditional HPC and supercomputing, high-performance enterprise, cloud, big data, and hyperscale New hyperscale advisory service Weekly podcast, This Week in HPC Contributing editors to The Next Platform, market research partners of TOP500.org, media partnerships with HPCwire, insidehpc Sponsors of HPC Advisory Council

3 HPC Market, Total worldwide HPC market (servers, storage, software, etc.) reached $35.6 billion in 2016, up 3.5% from Servers were the largest component, reaching $11.5 billion (3.3% growth over 2015). Total market is forecast to grow to $43.9 billion in 2021, 4.3% CAGR. Growth has been driven significantly by commercial HPC markets; this continues over the next five years. Government represents 26% of the total market. U.S. government is about half of the worldwide number. We are tentatively assuming only minor changes to U.S government HPC spending

4 HPC Methodology Updates: Refined model with weighting of end-user input by sector, based on increased data for commercial HPC 2. Expanded the number of major suppliers that we track directly. Added: Atos, Huawei, Inspur, Penguin 3. Extended the secondary or Other Supplier model methodology, based on financial reporting 4. Combined HPTC and HPBC Sector focus (commercial, industry, academia) simplifies market description Big Data did not drive significant market growth Some HPBC segments moved to Hyperscale market Changes applied across all years; net result is larger market, with largest increases in software and services

5 Hyperscale and Market Segmentation Intersect360 Research has introduced a new advisory service for the Hyperscale market Market characteristics differ from HPC segments Customer base Market drivers and dampers Market size and growth rates Ultrascale internet and online games segments move to Hyperscale Includes Deep Learning and other AI-related programs Primarily due to who is actually spending money today Also issues related to cloud and to technologies We will continue to monitor the overlap of AI and HPC

6 2016 vs 2015 HPC Market Performance 2016 was the seventh consecutive year of growth for the market but shows a marked decline in growth rate Hardware in all categories showed solid growth Services and software depressed the market Cloud growth is moderating

7 Total HPC Market Revenue actual, forecast The HPC market will grow at a 4.3% CAGR between 2016 and 2021 Revenues in HPC will grow by $8.3 billion to about $43.9 billion Industrial HPC is the driving engine of the market

8 Total HPC Revenue by Product Category Total HPC Revenue ($MILLIONS) by Primary Product Class CAGR Servers 10,044 10,199 10,442 11,103 11,471 11,947 12,480 13,072 13,730 14, % Storage 4,799 4,623 5,224 5,503 5,778 6,113 6,460 6,845 7,272 7, % Services 3,337 3,652 3,406 3,770 3,824 3,877 3,939 4,010 4,090 4, % Software 7,475 8,060 7,689 8,606 8,910 9,188 9,502 9,852 10,243 10, % Networks 1,826 2,155 2,291 2,678 2,767 2,855 2,955 3,066 3,190 3, % Cloud ,015 1,108 1, % Other 1,782 1,998 1,887 1,987 2,053 2,090 2,134 2,183 2,238 2, % Total 29,698 31,147 31,536 34,384 35,587 36,923 38,400 40,042 41,871 43, % Servers will lead the market in terms of absolute revenue growth, adding about $2.9 billion to the market by 2021 Cloud (aka utility computing) growth is based on a low starting point; by 2021 the segment will capture only about 3% of total revenue Software revenue is challenged by a combination of: growth in open source options, consolidation, bundling with hardware, and using software as a loss leader to promote other products Storage is the highest-growth segment other than cloud and will add roughly $2 billion in growth in the next five years

9 HPC Market Revenue by Product Class ($K)

10 Top Spending Trends Reported by Respondents Top-level Spending Trends Reported by Respondents Survey respondents provided details of specific areas where they expect significant changes. Hardware increases driven by spending for servers and storage. We continue to see interest in cloud computing options in both our research and in discussion with end users. However, we have not seen a corresponding increase in cloud budget share. Strong bias towards Private Cloud among respondents.

11 Year-Over-Year and Future Budget Growth End-users were surveyed on the current (year-over-year) budget growth, expected budget growth over the next two years, and areas of spending change Reported budget growth rates were mixed relative to the previous year: Government up.8%, Academia flat, Industry down -2.6% Expected budget growth rates moderated: Government up.6%, Academia down -1.5%, Industry down -1.9% Industry has become the driving engine for HPC market growth Overall growth data suggests continued moderate growth in HPC

12 HPC System Market Share HPC Server Market Share, 2016 Penguin 1.5% Huawei 1.2% Fujitsu 1.8% Inspur 2.0% Other 13.5% HPE 33.0% Atos/Bull 2.6% Cray 4.5% IBM 6.8% Lenovo 6.9% Dell 26.4%

13 HPC Storage Revenue Share Model HPC Storage Revenue Share Model, 2016 Fujitsu, 1.7% Bull, 1.9% Others, 17.0% Panasas, 2.1% Spectra, 2.2% Seagate, 2.9% Dell EMC, 24.4% NetApp, 15.8% DDN, 3.0% HDS, 6.1% IBM, 9.5% HPE, 13.4% Includes disk (NAS, SAN, scratch, etc.), flash, tape Revenue assigned to the final seller (may be OEM from other vendor)

14 The Hyperscale Market Included since our 2007 HPC methodology as ultrascale internet In 2015, recognized Hyperscale as distinct market in proximity to HPC; began process of separating it from HPC Defined hyperscale methodology with market research and feedback from interested clients Published definitions and methodology report in April 2016

15 Hyperscale Market Definition The hyperscale market consists of arbitrarily scalable, web-facing application infrastructure that is distinct from general IT investment

16 Hyperscale Market Size and Tiers Intersect360 Research has a tiered model for the hyperscale market, as follows: Tier Annual IT Orgs Market Size Tier 1 > $1B 8 ~$20B Tier 2 > $100M ~40 ~$10B Tier 3 > $1M hundreds ~$5B Total: ~$35B DRAFT, Intersect360 Research, 2016

17 Deep Learning Intersect360 Research tracks AI (including deep learning, machine learning, cognitive computing, etc.) as part of the hyperscale market Similar to but distinct from HPC Low precision, intensely parallel, strong affinity to public cloud DL is not a vertical market. It is more akin to an algorithm or method of computation, like an FFT Cloud providers and end users are in early stages of investment for their applications

18 Sizing Deep Learning We have looked at the size of the deep learning market opportunity from several angles: Supplier-side information on market expansion Demand-side market analysis on acquisitions Top-down analysis of the hyperscale market Analyst opinion Our independent methods have produced consistent views of the current opportunity in deep learning

19 Deep Learning Size and Growth According to our analysis, the deep learning market opportunity is $2.0B to $2.5B for 2016 Represents about 6.5% of the hyperscale market This is a pre-publication figure We expect growth rate to be very high for the next two years, , close to 100% Y/Y After that, growth will moderate, and possibly even contract by end of five-year period

20 The Top of All Things in HPC, 2016 Site Census Snapshot Analysis January 2017 Christopher Willard, Ph.D., Addison Snell, Laura Segervall

21 Introduction The purpose of this report is to provide the top suppliers, packages, or categories within specific segments. Shares reported are based on Site Census survey results, not total sales Top is defined as companies accounting for 50% market share or the top five, whichever comes first. Our goals for collecting and maintaining site census data include: Developing demand-side data for tracking and modeling fundamental characteristics of the HPC market in such areas as computer room contents, vendor positioning, technology adoption, user purchase patterns, etc. Collecting and comparing demand-side data to supply-side data in order to accurately frame the entire HPC ecosystem. Tracking trends in these characteristics over time. Supporting our HPC market-sizing and forecasting models. Survey was conducted in the second and third quarters of Responses were received from 487 sites which responded to at least one section of our last three site census surveys. Entries reported in two or more surveys were counted once.

22 What is Top Given the wide range of product categories and technologies combined with the variable number of vendors selling into any category a strict count base definition of top (e.g. top 10, top 3) is not meaningful in all cases. We define top as the fewest companies necessary to account for 50% share in a given category or the top five, whichever comes first. We ignore this rule for some software categories because of either too few category options or too many companies needed to get to 50% Note: These charts indicate responses to our surveys of the HPC user community. Survey responses are not always indicative of market share by revenue. For inquiries on revenue share, contact Intersect360 Research.

23 Top System Suppliers Dell EMC, HP Enterprise, and Lenovo remained the top three HPC system suppliers. IBM remains absent from this list due to the divestiture of its x86 business. HP Enterprise continues to gain momentum. With acquisition of SGI, HPE could become the top HPC supplier in our next study.

24 Top Accelerator* Supplier * Accelerators includes GPUs, co-processors, and FPGAs Top Suppliers by Share of Systems (N=316 systems) Top Suppliers by Share of Total Accelerators (N=54,375 accelerators) 38% of the systems reported have accelerators installed NVidia was installed in the majority of systems with accelerators and accounted for the majority of accelerators installed. Intel Xeon Phi was installed in less than 20% of systems. FPGAs are reported, yet account for less than 2% of systems and less than 1% of accelerators installed.

25 Top Storage System Suppliers DDN remained in the top position for installed storage systems, increasing almost 1 percentage point from last year. Dell EMC moved into the number two position based on combining Dell and EMC installations. We expect HP Enterprise to increase its share due to the acquisition of SGI but do not expect the company will be in the top 3. Amazon Web Services share has been slowly increasing, growing from 1% in 2014 to 1.7% in 2016.

26 Top File Systems Top Storage Management Software Suppliers Top Storage Management Software Packages IBM was leading supplier with its multiple storage management packages (GPFS, Tivoli, HPSS) Many unique packages (57 in total) were reported by respondents with over half of the packages being reported by one respondent. The top five account for 43% of the mentions.

27 Top Interconnects/Network Suppliers Top System Interconnect Suppliers Top Storage Interconnect Suppliers Top LAN Suppliers In all locales, two vendors account for over 50% of the mentions, with Mellanox being the only supplier in all three locales. Entries not specifying supplier were not included in total. InfiniBand continues to be the performance system network of choice for system interconnects, with about two-thirds of the mentions. Ethernet 10G+ and InfiniBand have about equal shares for storage systems networks. Intel s Omni-Path was reported for a few systems and storage systems, with expectations for increased share in 2017.

28 Top Middleware Categories Programming Environment and Compilers account for 50% of the mentions. Programming Environment includes mathematical applications, parallel tools, and other tools. MathWorks Matlab, SchedMD Slurm, GNU compilers, and Adaptive Computing Moab and Torque were the top five packages, accounting for only 19.5% of the mentions.

29 Source of HPC Middleware Source of All Reported Middleware Source of Middleware for each sector ISV and Open Source account for almost 97% of all middleware reported. Programming Environments and compilers account for 56% of the all mentions and the majority of packages in these categories are from ISVs. Commercial sites continue to prefer ISV middleware.

30 Top Generally-Available Applications Top Open Source Applications Top ISV Applications About 76% of applications reported were Open Source or ISV software (generally-available applications). ISV and in-house packages are still the majority at commercial sites, representing about 84% of the packages reported. Open source accounts for more than 50% of the packages reported at academic and government sites.

31 Study: Processing Elements for HPC Comprehensive Research Study surveyed HPC end users worldwide on adoption, evaluation, and perception of the wide range of processors architectures in HPC Deep-dive analysis of future prospects of Xeon, Xeon Phi, Power / OpenPOWER, GPU, FPGA, ARM, others Survey completed Q1 2016, 269 qualified respondents Results, analysis, and recommendations available now

32 HPC User Forward-Looking Views UNFAVORABLE FAVORABLE Intersect360 Research special study, 2016

33 Plans for POWER/OpenPOWER Plans to Use or Evaluate Power/OpenPOWER for HPC "over the next few years" Intersect360 Research special study, 2016 Will Definitely Use 13% No plans to evaluate or use 47% Will Evaluate 40%

34 Plans for ARM Plans to Use or Evaluate ARM for HPC "over the next few years" Intersect360 Research special study, 2016 Will Definitely Use 12% No plans to evaluate or use 41% Will Evaluate 47%

35 Where HPC Was in 2006 Intel was NOT the #1 processor vendor in HPC #1 on TOP500, IBM BlueGene/L at LLNL, 136 TFlops Enthusiasm for grid computing waning InfiniBand surpasses Myrinet and other proprietary high-end interconnects Parallel file systems existed but were uncommon Dawn of multi-core processor era

36 Five Important Predictions for HPC in 2007 (as Tabor Research) 1. HPC will be described more in productivity, less in performance, flops. [No. Hope for future?] 2. Data becomes more important, and leading parallel file systems will begin to emerge. [Yes.] 3. Microsoft will grow its presence in HPC, buoyed by multi-core trends. [This started, then faded.] 4. Power consumption will become a top-tier purchase consideration. [Yes.] 5. HPC growth will be driven by business applications (finance, gaming, logistics, ) [Yes.]

37 Other Observations and Predictions Related to Multi-Core Expansion, HPC application performance will not keep up with multi-core architecture peaks. [Yes.] 2. Increased focus on middleware and developer tools; acquisitions likely in this space. [Yes.] 3. GPGPUs will become a predominant accelerator architecture, beginning at entry-level/midrange. [Yes.] Anticipating the Fall A Cartoon Physics Look at Multi-Core Processing, published in HPCwire, June 2008

38 The Next Ten Years in HPC (Write These Down; Grade Us in 2026) 1. Fundamental drivers of HPC remain strong. Forever. 2. Specialization proliferates again. Custom architectures will reemerge in the market. 3. Public cloud (utility) remains well below 10% of the HPC market through the next 10 years. 4. Object storage will take off in commercial markets. 5. The hyperscale market will have a tremendous effect: Consuming HPC-associated technologies like GPU, InfiniBand Defining system configurations and product specifications Influencing software and middleware Introducing new revolutionary applications based on AI (including deep learning) and augmented reality. These are hyperscale applications that will predominant be run on cloudbased resources.

39 HPC Advisory Council Access to research presented at HPCAC Academic users can get free access to research for citation Qualified end users who answer surveys can also get free access HPCAC vendor sponsors can get discounted access to Intersect360 Research services

40 HPC Market Update, ISC17 June 2017 Addison Snell, Christopher Willard, Ph.D., Laura Segervall