HPC Trends for 2017 HPCAC Lugano. Michael Feldman, Managing Editor, TOP500 News

Transcription

1 HPC Trends for 2017 HPCAC Lugano Michael Feldman, Managing Editor, TOP500 News

2 Intersect360 Research in year history of HPC analyst business Covering high performance data center markets, including traditional HPC and supercomputing, high-performance enterprise, cloud, big data, and hyperscale New hyperscale advisory service Weekly podcast, This Week in HPC Contributing editors to The Next Platform, market research partners of TOP500.org, media partnerships with HPCwire, insidehpc Sponsors of HPC Advisory Council

3 Key Trends Architecture specialization HPC in the Cloud HPC vs. Hyperscale Machine learning and AI

4 HPC User Forward-Looking Views UNFAVORABLE FAVORABLE Intersect360 Research special study, 2016

5 Plans for POWER/OpenPOWER Plans to Use or Evaluate Power/OpenPOWER for HPC "over the next few years" Intersect360 Research special study, 2016 Will Definitely Use 13% No plans to evaluate or use 47% Will Evaluate 40%

6 Plans for ARM Plans to Use or Evaluate ARM for HPC "over the next few years" Intersect360 Research special study, 2016 Will Definitely Use 12% No plans to evaluate or use 41% Will Evaluate 47%

7 Top Accelerator* Supplier * Accelerators includes GPUs, co-processors, and FPGAs Top Suppliers by Share of Systems (N=316 systems) Top Suppliers by Share of Total Accelerators (N=54,375 accelerators) 38% of the systems reported have accelerators installed Nvidia was installed in the majority of systems with accelerators and accounted for the majority of accelerators installed. Intel Xeon Phi was installed in less than 20% of systems. FPGAs are reported, yet account for less than 2% of systems and less than 1% of accelerators installed.

8 Top Interconnects/Network Suppliers Top System Interconnect Suppliers Top Storage Interconnect Suppliers Top LAN Suppliers In all locales, two vendors account for over 50% of the mentions, with Mellanox being the only supplier in all three locales. Entries not specifying supplier were not included in total. InfiniBand continues to be the performance system network of choice for system interconnects, with about two-thirds of the mentions. Ethernet 10G+ and InfiniBand have about equal shares for storage systems networks. Intel s Omni-Path was reported for a few systems and storage systems, with expectations for increased share in 2017.

9 Top Generally Available Applications Top Open Source Applications Top ISV Applications About 76% of applications reported were Open Source or ISV software (generally-available applications). ISV and in-house packages are still the majority at commercial sites, representing about 84% of the packages reported. Open source accounts for more than 50% of the packages reported at academic and government sites.

10 Total HPC Market (Combined HPTC and HPBC) Revenue by Product Class ($M)

11 The Hyperscale Market Included since our 2007 HPC methodology as ultrascale internet In 2015, recognized Hyperscale as distinct market in proximity to HPC; began process of separating it from HPC Defined hyperscale methodology with market research and feedback from interested clients Published definitions and methodology report in April 2016

12 Hyperscale Market Size and Tiers Intersect360 Research has a tiered model for the hyperscale market, as follows: Tier Annual IT Orgs Market Size Tier 1 > $1B 8 ~$20B Tier 2 > $100M ~40 ~$10B Tier 3 > $1M hundreds ~$5B Total: ~$35B DRAFT, Intersect360 Research, 2016 We anticipate publication of market size very soon, possibly by end of year

13 Deep Learning Intersect360 Research tracks AI (including deep learning, machine learning, cognitive computing, etc.) as part of the hyperscale market Similar to but distinct from HPC Low precision, intensely parallel, strong affinity to public cloud DL is not a vertical market. It is more akin to an algorithm or method of computation, like an FFT Cloud providers and end users are in early stages of investment for their applications

14 Deep Learning Size and Growth According to our analysis, the deep learning market opportunity is $2.0B to $2.5B for 2016 This represents about 6.5% of the hyperscale market, which we track separately from HPC We expect growth rate to be very high for the next two years, , close to 100% Y/Y After that, growth will moderate, and possibly even contract by end of five-year period

15 The Next Ten Years in HPC (Write These Down; Grade Us in 2027) 1. Fundamental drivers of HPC remain strong. Forever. 2. Specialization proliferates again. Custom architectures will reemerge in the market. 3. Public cloud (utility computing) remains well below 10% of the HPC market through the next 10 years. 4. Object storage will take off in commercial markets. 5. The hyperscale market will have a tremendous effect: Consuming HPC-associated technologies like GPU, InfiniBand Defining system configurations and product specifications Influencing software and middleware Introducing new revolutionary applications based on AI (including deep learning) and augmented reality. These are hyperscale applications that will predominant be run on cloudbased resources.

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17 HPC Trends for 2017 HPCAC Lugano Thank you!