NPS Total Ownership Cost Models

Transcription

1 NPS Total Ownership Cost Models Raymond Madachy Naval Postgraduate School Systems Engineering Research Center Annual Technical Research Review March 19, 2014

2 Objective Total Ownership Cost (TOC) modeling to enable affordability tradeoffs with integrated software-hardwarehuman factors Current shortfalls for ilities tradespace analysis Models/tools are incomplete wrt/ TOC phases, activities, disciplines, SoS aspects No integration with physical design space analysis tools, system modeling, or each other New aspects Integrated costing of systems, software, hardware and human factors across full lifecycle operations Extensions and consolidations for DoD application domains Tool interoperability and tailorability (service-oriented) Can improve affordability-related decisions across all joint services 2

3 Approach Research and development Create new ensemble of cost models with DoD stakeholders for broader coverage. Enable interoperability with other toolsets and researchers (plug and play) Piloting and refinement Engage with DoD organizations to pilot the TOC methods, process and tools (MPTs); then refine them based on the results of the pilot applications 3

4 Progress Extended models for breadth of engineering disciplines to include systems engineering, software engineering and hardware. Improved TOC capabilities by adding lifecycle maintenance models. Added Monte Carlo risk analysis for subset of cost parameters in integrated SE/SW/HW cost model. Initial extensions of general cost models for DoD system types starting with space systems and ships. Developed COQUALMO web service for tool interoperability. Successful piloting and follow-on extensions of product line model at NAVAIR. 4 4

5 Plans (1/3) Task 2 Support piloting and refinement of TOC MPT capabilities at NAVSEA, Army TACOM, NAVAIR, SPAWAR and others with RT 113 team. Continue NPS ship case study for design and cost tradeoffs with NAVSEA military students integrating TOC models into a Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) dashboard for Total Ship Systems Engineering (TSSE). 5

6 Plans (2/3) Task 2 Collaborate on SysML-based cost modeling for TOC (w/ USC and Georgia Tech) Integrate web-based costing services with other frameworks and tools 6

7 Plans (3/3) Task 3 Research and develop an ensemble of cost estimation models covering the systems engineering, development, production, operations, sustainment, and retirement (w/ USC) Begin with space domain with USAF/SMC and the Aerospace Corp., then extend into other DoD domains 7

8 Cost Modeling Across Domains Structuring canonical TOC tools to address multiple DoD domains efficiently. Included phases, activities, cost sources depend on domain Cost model architecting is similar to product line engineering Identify multi-domain commonalities and variabilities (e.g. cost factors, product structures, lifecycle phases, activities) Identify fully, partially sharable commonalities Develop model interfaces and extensions for variabilities Comparing MIL-STD 881 Work Breakdown Structures (WBS) to find commonalities and variabilities across DoD domains, and identify suggested improvements. Some domains have 1-n repeating system structures (e.g. spacecraft networks), others are single system Example Common Elements include Systems Engineering and Management 8

9 Product Line TOC Modeling Will extend models and tools to analyze TOC for a family of systems. The value of investing in product-line flexibility using Return-On-Investment (ROI) and TOC is assessed with parametric models adapted from the Constructive Product Line Investment Model (COPLIMO). Models are implemented in separate tools for 1) System-level product line flexibility investment model and 2) Software product line flexibility investment model. The detailed software model includes schedule time with NPV calculations. 9 9

10 Systems Product Line Model 10 10

11 Product Line Extension Multi-mission needs call for extension of the toplevel COPLIMO model to handle subsystems. Immediate pilot applications include: Task 2: NAVAIR avionics software product line modeling Task 3: USAF/SMC spacecraft and ground systems cost model development Each subsystem has respective cost factors and product line characteristics including Fractions of system fully reusable, partially reusable and cost of developing them for reuse Fraction of system variabilities and cost of development System lifetime and rates of change 11

12 Extended Product Line Model For Set of Products: For each subsystem: Average Product Cost Annual Change Cost Ownership Time Percent Mission- Unique, Adapted, Reused Relative Cost of Developing for PL Flexibility via Reuse Relative Costs of Reuse Systems Product Line Model As Functions of # Products, # Years in Life Cycle: PL Total Ownership Costs PL Flexibility Investment PL Savings (ROI) 12 12

13 SysML Integration Can deconstruct existing SysML models for DoD systems to enumerate cost model size inputs, and develop methods for automating the conversions. Counting and weighting requirements, interfaces, algorithms, scenarios and software size as inputs to SysML internal cost calculations. Support SysML encoding of additional parametric cost models. 13

14 Backups 14

15 Total Ownership Cost vs. Lifecycle Cost Total Ownership Cost (TOC) is the total cost of acquisition, development and operating costs. All direct and indirect costs of a product, product line, system, project or program. Life-cycle cost consists of research and development costs, investment costs, operating and support costs, and disposal costs over the duration of a program. Total ownership cost is broader in scope. It includes the elements of life-cycle cost, as well as other infrastructure or business process costs not normally attributed to a program

16 Ship Total Ownership Cost Contractor Project Management Hardware (e.g. Structure, Propulsion, Electric Plant) Start Up (e.g. Tooling, Jigs, Fixtures) Engineering Change Orders Tests and Trials Initial Outfitting (Onboard Spares, Repair Parts, Tools and Fuel) SAILAWAY COST PLUS Design Development Software Technical Data Publications Support Equipment Training Equipment Initial Spares (Shore based) Facility Construction Government Project Management ACQUISITION COST LIFE CYCLE COST TOTAL OWNERSHIP COST PLUS Operations and Support Disposal PLUS Common Support System Costs Infrastructure Cost for Planning, Managing, Operating and Executing Linked Indirect Costs Modifications and Upgrades 16 16

17 Ship RDT&E Point Estimate 17 17

18 Ship RDT&E Point Estimate 18 18

19 Ship RDT&E Point Estimate 19 19

20 Ship RDT&E Point Estimate 20 20

21 Ship RDT&E Point Estimate 21 21

22 Ship RDT&E Monte Carlo Risk Analysis 22 22

23 Ship RDT&E Monte Carlo Risk Analysis 23 23

24 Ship RDT&E Monte Carlo Risk Analysis 24 24

25 System Maintenance 25 25

26 System Maintenance 26 26

27 Software Maintenance 27 27

28 Total Ship Maintenance 28 28

29 Acquisition and Maintenance Monte Carlo Risk Results (1/3) 29 29

30 Acquisition and Maintenance Monte Carlo Risk Results (2/3) 30 30

31 Acquisition and Maintenance Monte Carlo Risk Results (3/3) 31 31

32 Where? General cost modeling tool currently available at

33 Satellite RDT&E Point Estimate 33 33

34 Software Cost Estimate Details 34 34

35 AMCM Overview The Advance Missions Cost Model (AMCM) predicts development, recurring and mission operations costs of ground vehicles, ships, aircraft, helicopters, missiles, launch vehicles, spacecraft, and human explorations missions. It is a system level cost model appropriate for large scale programs requiring many different systems that will be integrated to perform a complex mission. The model is most useful in the pre-conceptual and conceptual design phases of a program when the actual design of the systems is not known and many factors are being traded off

36 AMCM Description The AMCM is a two equation, multi-variable cost estimating relationship. The first equation predicts the development and production cost of the system based of various technical and programmatic factors. The second equation predicts the basic mission operations cost of the system. Both equations are fitted to a large historical database that spans 50 years of systems development. Most of the systems are US Government developed, but some commercial and European systems are included. Database of land, water, air and space systems. The data includes 54 spacecraft, 22 space transportation systems, 61 aircraft, 86 missiles, 29 ships, and 18 ground vehicles. All of the data points are from programs that were completed through IOC