Systems Engineering Affordability Tracking (SEAT) System

Transcription

1 Systems Engineering Affordability Tracking (SEAT) System SP&A Affordability Phantom Works January 2008 Karen Mourikas AMSE Experimentation - Integrated Defense Systems BOEING is a trademark of Boeing Management Company. SEAT ACEIT.ppt

2 Overview Systems Engineering Affordability Tracking (SEAT) System Affordability Overview SEAT Implementation ACEIT SEAT Model SEAT Reports Affordability Initiatives Next Steps Summary SEAT ACEIT.ppt 2

3 Systems Engineering Affordability Tracking (SEAT) System SEAT ACEIT.ppt 3

4 Systems Engineering Affordability Tracking System Systems Engineering Affordability Tracking (SEAT) System Is a Process/Tool to Help Produce a More Affordable System Can Help Manage a Program Systems Engineering Affordability Tracking An interdisciplinary, collaborative approach that derives, evolves, and verifies a life-cycle balanced system solution which satisfies customer expectations, and meets public acceptability.* Process Input Requirements Development Requirements Loop Functional Analysis & Decomposition System Analysis and Control (Balance) Control Loop Design Loop * Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineering (IEEE) 1220, Standard for Application and Management of the Systems Engineering Process (1994) Definition Verification Loop Synthesis Process Output SEAT ACEIT.ppt 4

5 Systems Engineering Affordability Tracking Systems Engineering Affordability Tracking Ongoing assessment of a program to ensure it is in consonance with the long-range investment plans * Meets funding guidelines Satisfies requirements Sufficient resources exist A process that helps Arrive at cost objectives Set performance objectives with the requirements community Define and integrate a balanced set of requirements Cost, schedule, performance, and risk Includes CAIV (Cost as an Independent Variable) Systems Engineering Affordability Tracking Measures progress Identifies Problem Areas Cost Objective Effectiveness Objective INSERT CHART oops Wost Case Scenario, Status: db *DAU Glossary of Defense Acquisition Acronyms and Terms, 12th Edition SEAT ACEIT.ppt 5

6 Systems Engineering Affordability Tracking Is a Process & Tool to Help Produce a More Affordable System Helps Identify Affordability Goals Such as Streamline Processes Reduce Costs Improve Design, Performance, Effectiveness Defines and Measures Progress Covers All Phases of a Program Tracks Variety of Targets Cost, Schedule, Performance, Risks, Issues and Opportunities Provides information for Cost Effectiveness Trades to identify Best-Value Solutions Objective: To provide Management and Engineers with program status & decision-making capabilities via target tracking & trade results SEAT ACEIT.ppt 6

7 Benefits of SEAT Differs from Cost Tracking & Earned Value Management Expanded Duration Can cover entire program from early conception through operations and disposal Has the ability to highlight ripple effects of current situation to future phases of program Broader Target Set Cost, Schedule, Performance, Risks, Issues and Opportunities Is Easily Integrated with Trade Studies and Risk Management Processes Performance/Design Targets Such as via Cost Effectiveness Modeling Tools Risk, Issue, Opportunity Systems Engineering Affordability-Focused Considers best value instead of lowest cost SEAT ACEIT.ppt 7

8 Affordability Overview SEAT ACEIT.ppt 8

9 Affordability Helps Manage your Program Assists with trade studies Thoroughly surveys and assesses trade space Not point designs 100,000 Random Cases Effectiveness = f (Performance) gives way to yielding Cost = f (Performance) Identifies best-value candidates or Biggest Bang for the Buck Quantitative assessment of optimal solutions of effectiveness and cost SEAT ACEIT.ppt 9

10 Examples of Affordability Tasks Integrate Customer Requirements & Expectations Develop Affordability Initiatives and Program Goals Generate, allocate and track Life Cycle Cost (LCC) Estimates Perform Cost Driver Analysis Implement Cost Risk Analysis (Cost, Schedule, Technical) Integrate with Program Risk Management Conduct Integrated (Cost-Performance) Trades Track Metrics SEAT ACEIT.ppt 10

11 What are Affordability Targets? Approved Program Goals and Strategies that Affect Cost, Schedule, Performance, & Risk, Issues & Opportunities (RIOs) Cover Program Breadth Each Life Cycle Phase of Program Carry-overs from Previous Phases Should be at IPT or WBS Subsystem Level Not too detailed Not too abstract Generally, are Internal to Team Although may come from Customer May be Reported to Customer SEAT ACEIT.ppt 11

12 Affordability Targets Cost Targets $$$ Are Derived from Estimates Estimates provide the starting point Sample targets Life Cycle Costs, EACs, Target Costs, PMB IPTs, WBS System, Subsystem Schedule Targets (Deadlines) Percent Ahead/Behind Milestones, IOC, FOC, First Launch Schedule Variance (SV, SPI) SEAT ACEIT.ppt 12

13 Performance Affordability Targets Performance/Design Targets Technical Performance Measures (TPMs) Weight Allotments KSLOC / Growth Design Life / Mean Mission Duration Power, BOL, EOL Signal Availability Constellation Coverage Threshold/Objective Measures of Effectiveness Failure Rate, Reliability Revisit Rate, Mean time between access Probability of Survival, Rescue, Evasion Signal to Noise Ratio P( Detection) Cost ($M) $3,000 $2,950 $2,900 $2,850 $2,800 $2,750 $2,700 $2,650 $2,600 $2,550 $2,500 $2,450 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Cycles Status-to-Target Opportunities Risks Potentials Net E(v) Target P(Rescue) MTBA (min) INSERT CHART Changes: -Requirement (Flex Power) -Allocations Worst Case Scenario, Status: db Requirement: -161 db. Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov De P(Acquiring Enemy) P(Rescue) SEAT ACEIT.ppt 13

14 Additional Affordability Targets Risks, Issues, and Opportunities (RIOs) Impacts Increased Costs / Savings Schedule Delays / Acceleration Technical/Design Modifications & Maturity Levels Risk Reduction Efforts Demonstrations SEAT ACEIT.ppt 14

15 SEAT Implementation SEAT ACEIT.ppt 15

16 Steps to Implement SEAT Determine SEAT Requirements Goals Data Reports Develop SEAT Model Toolset Data Handling Reporting Perform SEAT Analysis Trade Space Evaluation Analyze results Identify Issues Risk Mgmt Analysis Propose Initiatives SEAT ACEIT.ppt 16

17 SEAT Determine Requirements What are the goals? Define Goals & Set Targets Program Cost of $100K Schedule acceleration of 6 months Increase Y MOE by 5% Implement 2 Risk Reduction Demos Are goals feasible? Format of Data May need to modify goals How to measure progress against goals? Reports: type, data, frequency SEAT ACEIT.ppt 17

18 SEAT Develop Model Create Model Toolset Excel, ACEIT, Design Sheet, Homegrown, etc. Reports Canned, Customizable, Templates Training / documentation Pre-existing, Experts, Learning Curve Data Collection Data handling & storage Import, key in, cut & paste, automated Excel columns, Data Bases, GUIs Updates Override existing data Keep historical trends Create reports SEAT ACEIT.ppt 18

19 SEAT Perform Analysis Show trends Over/under runs Comparison to targets Identify Problem Areas Propose Affordability Measures Design & Cost-effectiveness trades Risk Reduction Demos Opportunity Investments INSERT CHART oops Wost Case Scenario, Status: db Best-Value Architectures Cost MOE SEAT ACEIT.ppt 19

20 ACEIT SEAT Model SEAT ACEIT.ppt 20

21 Affordability Tracking System - Tool ACEIT Tool Set Well Known in Engineering, Affordability and Finance Communities Easy to Use/Learn Quick to Create and Customize Models Built in WBS, Appropriations, Phasing, Normalization, Parametric Equations Contains Built-in and Customizable Reports Quick to Create and Update Reports with New Data Reports Provide Snapshots in Time and Trends over History Automatically Creates and Updates PowerPoint Briefing Charts Easy to Add Time-stamped Data to Model Monthly, Quarterly, As Needed SEAT ACEIT.ppt 21

22 ACEIT SEAT Model Structure Three Main Sections Targets Section CERs Section Cost Estimating Relationships Risk/Opportunity Section SEAT ACEIT.ppt 22

23 ACEIT SEAT Model Targets Section Targets Section contains targets and updated projections of Costs (EACs) organized by WBS at Subsystem level Design & Performance Parameters by applicable WBS Schedule Data Targets / Projections Assumptions Targets Fixed Not expected to change, but may be re-baselined Target saved as Baseline case Projections Updated Periodically Cost updated monthly throughout life cycle Weights/Power updated as needed Weekly / Monthly during Development phase Quarterly / as needed throughout Production Phase Schedule updated as needed Depending on phase, events, etc Projections Configuration Controlled by Review Boards Each update stored as separate case SEAT ACEIT.ppt 23

24 Targets Section: Targets costs Performance Schedule All data is notional and intended for explanation purposes only SEAT ACEIT.ppt 24

25 Targets Section: Projections (Total) Periodic Updates In columns Inputs/Results Viewer All data is notional and intended for explanation purposes only SEAT ACEIT.ppt 25

26 Targets Section: Projections (Phased) All data is notional and intended for explanation purposes only SEAT ACEIT.ppt 26

27 ACEIT SEAT Model CERs Section CERs Section contains Performance (weight/power) based CERs Cost on cost equations To show relative impacts of design changes on cost Expected cost delta with weight increase on Weight-based CERs Expected cost of refresh decrease with life expectancy increase To promote analytical thinking and CER development Do the above impacts reflect the updated projections? CERs Assumptions CERs in model accurately estimate the targets All data is notional and intended for explanation purposes only SEAT ACEIT.ppt 27

28 CERs Section Targets CERs All data is notional and intended for explanation purposes only SEAT ACEIT.ppt 28

29 ACEIT SEAT Model - Risk/Opportunities Section Risk/Opportunity Section contains impacts Additional Costs / Schedule Slips (R) Cost/Schedule Savings (O) Work in progress SEAT ACEIT.ppt 29

30 ACEIT SEAT Data Analysis Periodic Updates Stored in Sensitivity Cases Costs (EACs), Weights/Power, Dates Monthly, Quarterly, As Needed Sensitivity Cases Can Be Compared to Baseline Targets EACs Compared to Cost Targets Weights/Power Updates Compared to Baseline Parameters Schedule Changes Compared to Baseline Schedule Sensitivity Cases Compared to Parametric Costs (CERs) EACs Compared to Updated CER Costs based on Updated Parameters Risk/Opportunity Impacts Compared to Baseline/EACs Acts as a Check-and-Balance Risk Impacts / Cost Savings Reflected in EACs? SEAT ACEIT.ppt 30

31 SEAT Reports SEAT ACEIT.ppt 31

32 ACEIT Reports: Slice and Dice Cost Data Total Program Per Phase or Appropriation Total or Phased Over Life Cycle Per Milestone Per Unit Average Unit or Lot, T1, Unit Costs Itemized Costs Prime Mission Product (PMP) Only Bus, Payload, SEIT/PM Non-PMP Training, Logistics, Support Equipment, Level of Effort Activities Man hours Duration SEAT ACEIT.ppt 32

33 Sample Cost Targets Phased Development Phase Shown By WBS At Subsystem Level Phased over 4 years According to program schedule Then Year $ Color Coding: Yellow child White parent Cost Element Total FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 Development Target Space Vehicle Space Vehicle PMSE Space Vehicle Program Management Space Vehicle System Engineering Space Vehicle AIT Spacecraft Bus Spacecraft Bus SEPM, I&T Structures and Mechanisms Thermal Control Electric Power System (EPS) Attitude Determination & Control (ADC) Propulsion Sub System Tracking, Telemetry & Command (TT&C) Bus SW Payloads PL SEPM, I&T Data Processor L Band Suite Atomic Frequency Standard (AFS) Xlink Communication Suite PL Antenna System ILS Space Vehicle Storage Training Support Equipment LV Integration Launch Ops All data is notional and intended for explanation purposes only SEAT ACEIT.ppt 33

34 Sample Development Cost Projection Dated March 2007 Month End Data 3 months after ATP EAC Data Then Yr $ Will be compared to Phased Cost Targets $K BY 2007 Mar 2007 Projection Cost Element FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 Total Program Level Projection Development Projection Space Vehicle Space Vehicle PMSE Space Vehicle Program Management Space Vehicle System Engineering Space Vehicle AIT Spacecraft Bus Spacecraft Bus SEPM, I&T Structures and Mechanisms Thermal Control Electric Power System (EPS) Attitude Determination & Control (ADC) Propulsion Sub System Tracking, Telemetry & Command (TT&C) Bus SW Payloads PL SEPM, I&T Data Processor L Band Suite Atomic Frequency Standard (AFS) Xlink Communication Suite PL Antenna System ILS Space Vehicle Storage Training Support Equipment LV Integration Launch Ops All data is notional and intended for explanation purposes only SEAT ACEIT.ppt 34

35 Sample Delta Report Development Phase Total Cost not spread Difference between Target and Current Projection (March 2007) Color Coded Deltas (Thresholds Can be set as desired) 0-5% White = Low 5-10% Yellow = Medium 10-12% Gold = High 12+% Red = Very High Costs in BY2007 $K WBS Target Mar-2007 Delta (Δ) Percent Δ Threshold Program Level % Development % Medium Space Vehicle % Medium Space Vehicle PMSE % Medium Space Vehicle Program Management % High Space Vehicle System Engineering % Medium Space Vehicle AIT % Medium Spacecraft Bus % Medium Spacecraft Bus SEPM, I&T % High Structures and Mechanisms % Medium Thermal Control % Medium Electric Power System (EPS) % High Attitude Determination & Control (ADC) % Medium Propulsion Sub System % Medium All data is notional and intended for explanation purposes only SEAT ACEIT.ppt 35

36 Sample Delta Report Over Time Difference between Unphased Targets and Updated Monthly Projections Shows Progression of Delta Costs From Jan 2007 through Oct 2009 Color Coding Highlights Problem Areas Costs in BY2007 $K WBS Target Jan-2007 Feb-2007 Mar-2007 Apr-2007 Oct-2009 Program Level Development Space Vehicle Space Vehicle PMSE Space Vehicle Program Management Space Vehicle System Engineering Space Vehicle AIT Spacecraft Bus Spacecraft Bus SEPM, I&T Structures and Mechanisms Thermal Control Electric Power System (EPS) Attitude Determination & Control (ADC) Propulsion Sub System Tracking, Telemetry & Command (TT&C) Bus SW Payloads PL SEPM, I&T Data Processor L Band Suite Atomic Frequency Standard (AFS) Xlink Communication Suite PL Antenna System All data is notional and intended for explanation purposes only SEAT ACEIT.ppt 36

37 Sample Performance/Design Targets Spacevehicle development dry weight total Units lbs Baseline Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 Oct-09 Jan Second Level of Visibility for Receiver Spacevehicle development dry w eight total Units watts Baseline Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 Oct-09 Jan Receiver All data is notional and intended for explanation purposes only SEAT ACEIT.ppt 37

38 Sample Performance Comparisons WBS Baseline Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 Oct-09 Jan-10 *WEIGHT TARGETS Spacevehicle development dry weight total Spacecraft Bus Structures and Mechanisms Thermal Control Electric Power System (EPS) Attitude Determination & Control (ADC) Propulsion Sub System Tracking, Telemetry & Command (TT&C) Payloads Data Processor L Band Suite Second Level of Visibility for Spacevehicle Performance Atomic Frequency Standard (AFS) Xlink Communication Suite PL Antenna System *Performance TARGETS Spacevehicle Performance Data Processor Transmitter Receiver Baseline SV Reliability MMD Jan Units Interpretation of Targets WBS/CES Description Units Comments Value * Performance TARGETS Spacevehicle Performance Data Processor ms Greater than 200 Transmitter w greater than 50 Receiver w Less than 200 SV Reliability % Greater than 0.8 MMD yrs Greater than All data is notional and intended for explanation purposes only 0.0 Data Processor Transmitter Receiver SV Reliability MMD Jan-10 SEAT ACEIT.ppt 38

39 Sample Phased Development Cost Reports Shows Annual Projections Comparing Target to Monthly Updates Can display which months of data needed Development Target Development Target BY2007 $K Months of Data Baseline Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Development Target BY2007 $K Most Recent Month Baseline Jan BY2007 $K Baseline Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 Oct-09 Jan Months of Data All data is notional and intended for explanation purposes only SEAT ACEIT.ppt 39

40 Sample Bar Chart Comparison Reports System Level Comparison With Click of Button, can increase or decrease level of detail Can select which months to display Space Vehicle Spacecraft Bus BY2007 $K Space Vehicle PMSE Space Vehicle AIT Spacecraft Bus Payloads ILS LV Integration Launch Ops Baseline Oct-09 BY2007 $K Spacecraft Bus SEPM, I&T Structures and Mechanisms Thermal Control Electric Power System (EPS) Attitude Determination & Control (ADC) Propulsion Sub System Tracking, Telemetry & Command (TT&C) Bus SW Baseline Oct-09 All data is notional and intended for explanation purposes only SEAT ACEIT.ppt 40

41 Affordability Initiatives SEAT ACEIT.ppt 41

42 Cost Effectiveness Trade Studies Identify best-value solutions Trade Studies currently separate process performed with trades tools Data from ACEIT manually input into trades tools Plans to automate input from ACEIT to Trades tools Create Interface between ACEIT Model and Trade Study Tools (i.e. Design Sheet) for Detailed Exploration of Trade Space Push (Excel Plug in) and Pull from ACEIT(VB Macro) Determine SEAT Requirements Develop SEAT Model Trade Space Evaluation Perform SEAT Analysis Risk Mgmt Analysis SEAT ACEIT.ppt 42

43 Risk Management Integrate with Risk Management Identify Risks, Issues, Opportunities Evaluate Risk Reduction Candidates Integrate Cost Risk Analysis with Program Risk Management Determine SEAT Requirements Develop SEAT Model Trade Space Evaluation Perform SEAT Analysis Risk Mgmt Analysis SEAT ACEIT.ppt 43

44 Next Steps SEAT ACEIT.ppt 44

45 Next Steps Implement Risk/Opportunities in SEAT Update ACEIT Model Perform RIO Analysis Customize & Automate ACEIT SEAT Reports Incorporate POST Input Sheets as means of inputting data Automate linkage between SEAT and Trade Study Tools For further analytical studies SEAT ACEIT.ppt 45

46 Summary SEAT ACEIT.ppt 46

47 Summary Systems Engineering Affordability Tracking (SEAT) Is a Process/Tool to Help Produce a More Affordable System Affordability is an on-going process which helps determine cost and performance requirements thoroughly explore the Trade Space identifies best-value solutions plays a key role in SEAT ACEIT provides modeling flexibility Data handling Reports Future Plans Link SEAT to Trade Study Tools Implement RIOs in ACEIT SEAT model SEAT ACEIT.ppt 47

48 SEAT ACEIT.ppt 48