REVENUE ESTIMATING CONFERENCE Tax: Lottery Issue: Additional Full Service Vending Machines Bill Number(s): Appropriations

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1 REVENUE ESTIMATING CONFERENCE Tax: Lottery Issue: Additional Full Service Vending Machines Bill Number(s): Appropriations Entire Bill x Partial Bill: Sponsor(s): Month/Year Impact Begins: February 2015 Date of Analysis: March 21, 2014 Section 1: Narrative a. Current Law: In 2012, the authorization to dispense online tickets was granted by the Florida Legislature in s. 3, ch Section (15), F.S. provides authorization of vending machines to dispense lottery tickets. Such machines may be used to dispense online lottery tickets, instant lottery tickets, or both online and instant lottery tickets. The Legislature also appropriated $2.94 million to lease Full Service Vending Machines (FSVMs) for FY Previously, the Legislature had authorized the leasing and installation of Instant Ticket Vending Machines (ITVMs). For FY , 1,000 ITVMs were authorized; for FY , 500 additional ITVMs were authorized. The 500 FSVMs installed primarily in high volume supermarkets throughout the state between September to November 2012 have current life to date sales through February of 2014 of $356, 533,464 with transfers of $65,673,464. It should be noted that nearly all of the retailers receiving FSVMs had already been using ITVMs. Upon installation of the FSVMs, the ITVMs were shifted to new locations to further improve consumer convenience buying Lottery tickets. FSVMs are much like a typical vending machine in that money is inserted, a button is pressed, or a standard play slip is inserted, and the desired product is then dispensed from the machine. In compliance with state statute, FSVMs can be remotely disabled in order to prevent underage players from purchasing tickets. The machine transmits sales information in real time to the in store terminal, allowing for more effective accounting and tracking of ticket inventory, greatly enhancing the retailers and the Lottery s ability to monitor and manage scratch off inventory while also selling terminal games. In order to continue growth of Lottery revenues and the resulting transfers to the Educational Enhancement Trust Fund (EETF), the Florida Lottery is proposing an increase in the distribution network for the sale of Lottery products. To continue the growth pattern, the Florida Lottery is requesting $4,860,000 to lease an additional 300 FSVMs for placement at retailer locations throughout the state, many of which will be new retailers. FSVMs currently in place have demonstrated that the full service feature in retailer locations supplements the counter sales activity. The full service feature has attracted the interest of new groups of large chain retailers who have previously expressed concern over the labor intensive nature of the existing customer service counter business model. The lack of full service equipment was cited as an obstacle in the past when trying to recruit new corporate retailers. The availability of full service machines that dispense both instant and on line lottery game tickets, in all probability, will be the key factor in the Florida Lottery s ability to persuade larger corporate retailers in some cases, big box stores to begin selling lottery tickets. In these times, retail customers increasingly prefer full service options in their purchasing. Perhaps more important to the lottery industry, major corporate retailers place a great emphasis on managing labor costs and thorough inventory accounting. In Florida s experience, at least two large retailer chains were deciding on offering lottery products only to reverse their decision upon learning that full service vending machines were not available. The Lottery is currently working with a new retailer who has over 35 stores in Florida currently with plans to build more. This retailer will only sell Lottery from a full service vending machine. The Lottery is also in discussion with trade styles currently not selling Lottery but who would also sell only from a full service model if implemented. These trade styles would require approximately 150 units. Two existing retailers have identified new location needs that would use the other 150 units. Proposed Change: The Lottery is requesting funding to support growth in sales and Educational Enhancement Trust Fund (EETF) contributions, both by enhancing the ticket sales capabilities in current, strongly performing retail locations and by making it possible to increase the number of retail businesses selling Lottery tickets. More specifically, the Lottery is seeking an additional appropriation of $4,860,000 to lease an estimated 300 FSVMs at an assumed leasing fee of $1,350 per machine per month. 339

2 REVENUE ESTIMATING CONFERENCE Tax: Lottery Issue: Additional Full Service Vending Machines Bill Number(s): Appropriations The current plan would be to place 150 of the FSVMs at new corporate retail locations which will likely be operated as full service lottery sellers. The remaining 150 FSVMs would replace existing ITVMs in some of the top producing retailer locations, retailers that also have a record of strong On line Game sales. This would free up 150 ITVMs, at no additional costs to the Lottery. Section 2: Description of Data and Sources In almost all cases, the sales data used in this analysis is from the Lottery s Business Objects database and GTECH s Enterprise System. This reflects the actual business experience of the Lottery. Assumptions regarding baseline sales forecasts and EETF contribution rates are taken from the report of the February 2014 Lottery Revenue Estimating Conference. Section 3: Methodology (Include Assumptions and Attach Details) The planned placement of 150 FSVMs at new corporate retailer locations and 150 at existing retail locations creates three types of incremental revenue streams: 1. Enhanced sales at existing Lottery retail locations, currently equipped with ITVMs but upgraded to FSVMs. 2. at 150 corporate locations which have never before sold Florida Lottery tickets. 3. Enhanced sales at 150 existing retail locations being given ITVMs for the first time, i.e., the ITVMs displaced by the 150 noted in the first category. The methodology and assumptions used in this analysis are made clear in the labeling and notes accompanying each of the attached tables. Detailed analyses, reflected in the attached tables, were used to generate the cash and recurring impact figures for FY For the remaining years, the annual percentage growth rates in sales forecasted by the February 2014 Lottery Revenue Estimating Conference were applied to the FY recurring sales impact figures. The resulting sales estimates then were used in the standard EETF model to calculate an EETF estimate for each year. Finally, those estimates were compared to the baseline forecast to yield yearly estimates of EETF impacts. Section 4: Proposed Fiscal Impact High Middle Low Cash Recurring Cash Recurring Cash Recurring (2.4) List of affected Trust Funds: Educational Enhancement Trust Fund Section 5: Consensus Estimate (Adopted: 03/21/2014 ) The conference adopted the low estimate, adjusted to include sales shift factors of 20% for the two categories relating to ITVMs, and an increased sales shift factor for the new corporate retailers of 33%. The sales shift factor represents the portion of tickets that would have been sold regardless of the presence of a new machine. In other words, the estimate assumes that two thirds of tickets sold from new FSVMs are new ticket sales, and one third comes from existing ticket sales. While it is estimated that the additional FSVMs will increase ticket sales and revenues in each fiscal year, the cash impact to the EETF in Fiscal Year is negative because of the initial costs and time involved with building and installing the new machines. It is estimated that the new FSVMs will be operational for five months in the first year. GR Trust Local/Other Total Cash Recurring Cash Recurring Cash Recurring Cash Recurring (2.6) (2.6)

3 Table 1. EETF transfers HIGH Additional FSVMs Impact Estimate - March 21, 2014 Impact Conference February 18, 2014 REC 300 FSVMs Recurring difference/impact , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , February 18, 2014 REC 300 FSVMs Cash difference/impact , , , , MIDDLE Additional FSVMs Impact Estimate - March 21, 2014 Impact Conference February 18, 2014 REC 300 FSVMs Recurring difference/impact , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , February 18, 2014 REC 300 FSVMs Cash difference/impact , , , , LOW Additional FSVMs Impact Estimate - March 21, 2014 Impact Conference February 18, 2014 REC 300 FSVMs Recurring difference/impact , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , February 18, 2014 REC 300 FSVMs Cash difference/impact , , , ,513.1 (2.7) (2.6) 341

4 TABLE 2 HIGH Detailed Impact Analysis: Full-Service Vending Machines FY cash Shift (Partial Yr.) Shift Upgrades of ITVMs to FSVMs $ 5,397,600 $ 5,397,600.0 $ 2,076,000 $ 2,076,000.0 Number of Retailers Switching from ITVMs to FSVMs 150 Current Average Weekly Total of Retailers Switching from ITVMs to FSVMs Avg % Increase in from Retailers Switching from ITVMs to FSVMs (as a % of Total ) $ 20, % Shift Factor for This Category 0% New Corporate Retailers $ 109,200,000 $ 81,900,000 $ 36,000,000 $ 27,000,000 Number of New Corporate Retailers Equipped with FSVMs and Employing a Self-Service Model 150 Average Weekly Over First Year Average Weekly Over Second Year Shift Factor for This Category -25% Retailers Given Displaced ITVMs $ 1,872,000 $ 1,872,000 $ 720,000 $ 720,000 Number of Additional Retailers Getting ITVMs Freed-up by FSVM Placement 150 Avg Weekly Scratch-off of Retailers Prior to Receiving ITVMs 8000 Net % Increase in Scratch-off from New ITVMs (as a % of Scratch-off sales) 3.00% Shift Factor for This Category 0% Total Impact $ 89,169,600 $ 29,796,

5 TABLE 2 MIDDLE Detailed Impact Analysis: Full-Service Vending Machines FY cash Shift (Partial Yr.) Shift Upgrades of ITVMs to FSVMs $ 4,857,840 $4,857,840.0 $ 1,868,400 $ 1,868,400.0 Number of Retailers Switching from ITVMs to FSVMs 150 Current Average Weekly Total of Retailers Switching from ITVMs to FSVMs $ 18,000 Avg % Increase in from Retailers Switching from ITVMs to FSVMs (as a % of Total ) 3.46% Shift Factor for This Category 0% New Corporate Retailers $ 62,400,000 $ 46,800,000 $ 18,000,000 $ 13,500,000 Number of New Corporate Retailers Equipped with FSVMs and Employing a Self-Service Model 150 Average Weekly Over First Year 6000 Average Weekly Over Second Year 8000 Shift Factor for This Category -25% Retailers Given Displaced ITVMs $ 1,404,000 $ 1,404,000 $ 540,000 $ 540,000 Number of Additional Retailers Getting ITVMs Freed-up by FSVM Placement 150 Avg Weekly Scratch-off of Retailers Prior to Receiving ITVMs 6000 Net % Increase in Scratch-off from New ITVMs (as a % of Scratch-off sales) 3.00% Shift Factor for This Category 0% Total Impact $ 53,061,840 $ 15,908,

6 TABLE 2 LOW Detailed Impact Analysis: Full-Service Vending Machines FY cash Shift (Partial Yr.) Shift Upgrades of ITVMs to FSVMs $ 3,778,320 $3,022,656.0 $ 1,453,200 $ 1,162,560.0 Number of Retailers Switching from ITVMs to FSVMs 150 Current Average Weekly Total of Retailers Switching from ITVMs to FSVMs $ 14,000 Avg % Increase in from Retailers Switching from ITVMs to FSVMs (as a % of Total ) 3.46% Shift Factor for This Category -20% New Corporate Retailers $ 31,200,000 $ 20,904,000 $ 6,000,000 $ 4,020,000 Number of New Corporate Retailers Equipped with FSVMs and Employing a Self-Service Model 150 Average Weekly Over First Year 2000 Average Weekly Over Second Year 4000 Shift Factor for This Category -33% Retailers Given Displaced ITVMs $ 1,170,000 $ 936,000 $ 450,000 $ 360,000 Number of Additional Retailers Getting ITVMs Freed-up by FSVM Placement 150 Avg Weekly Scratch-off of Retailers Prior to Receiving ITVMs 5000 Net % Increase in Scratch-off from New ITVMs (as a % of Scratch-off sales) 3.00% Shift Factor for This Category -20% Total Impact $ 24,862,656 $ 5,542,

7 FY Cash Equipment Costs Equipment Costs Upgrades of ITVMs to FSVMs $ 5,397,600 $ 1,837,800 $ 2,076,000 $ 765,750 New Corporate Retailers $ 81,900,000 $ 2,430,000 $ 27,000,000 $ 1,012,500 Retailers Given Displaced ITVMs $ 1,872,000 $ - $ 720,000 $ - TOTALS $ 89,169,600 $ 4,267,800 $ 29,796,000 $ 1,778,250 ASSUMPTIONS TABLE 3 HIGH Full-Service Vending Machine Impacts Annual Equipment Cost Appropriation $ 4,860,000 Total Number of Additional FSVMs 300 Monthly Fee Per Machine-Upgrade from ITVM to FSVM $ 1,021 Monthly Fee Per Machine-FSVMs for retailers having no Lottery vending machines. $ 1,350 Phase-in Factor--Year One from Upgrades to FSVMs and Relocated ITVMs (Weeks) 20 Phase-in Factor--Year One Costs of Upgrades to FSVMs (Months) 5 345

8 TABLE 3 MIDDLE Full-Service Vending Machine Impacts FY Cash Equipment Costs Equipment Costs Upgrades of ITVMs to FSVMs $ 4,857,840 $ 1,837,800 $ 1,868,400 $ 765,750 New Corporate Retailers $ 46,800,000 $ 2,430,000 $ 13,500,000 $ 1,012,500 Retailers Given Displaced ITVMs $ 1,404,000 $ - $ 540,000 $ - TOTALS $ 53,061,840 $ 4,267,800 $ 15,908,400 $ 1,778,250 ASSUMPTIONS Annual Equipment Cost Appropriation $ 4,860,000 Total Number of Additional FSVMs 300 Monthly Fee Per Machine-Upgrade from ITVM to FSVM $ 1,021 Monthly Fee Per Machine-FSVMs for retailers having no Lottery vending machines. $ 1,350 Phase-in Factor--Year One from Upgrades to FSVMs and Relocated ITVMs (Weeks) 20 Phase-in Factor--Year One Costs of Upgrades to FSVMs (Months) % 346

9 TABLE 3 LOW Full-Service Vending Machine Impacts FY Cash Equipment Costs Equipment Costs Upgrades of ITVMs to FSVMs $ 3,022,656 $ 1,837,800 $ 1,162,560 $ 765,750 New Corporate Retailers $ 20,904,000 $ 2,430,000 $ 4,020,000 $ 1,012,500 Retailers Given Displaced ITVMs $ 936,000 $ - $ 360,000 $ - TOTALS $ 24,862,656 $ 4,267,800 $ 5,542,560 $ 1,778,250 ASSUMPTIONS Annual Equipment Cost Appropriation $ 4,860,000 Total Number of Additional FSVMs 300 Monthly Fee Per Machine-Upgrade from ITVM to FSVM $ 1,021 Monthly Fee Per Machine-FSVMs for retailers having no Lottery vending machines. $ 1,350 Phase-in Factor--Year One from Upgrades to FSVMs and Relocated ITVMs (Weeks) 20 Phase-in Factor--Year One Costs of Upgrades to FSVMs (Months) % 347