EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION AND RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY FROM CONCEPT TO REAL APPLICATIONS YASIN M. FAHJAN

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1 Universidade do Minho Departamento de Engenharia Civil SEMINAR AND LUNCH ON EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING AND HISTORIC MASONRY July 12, 2010 EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION AND RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY FROM CONCEPT TO REAL APPLICATIONS YASIN M. FAHJAN Department of Earthquake and Structural Sciences Gebze Institute of Technology, Gebze, Kocaeli, Turkey

2 HAZARD ASSESSMENT INVENTORY OF ELEMENTS AT RISK VULNERABILITIES RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY LOSS RESULTS Event Local Site Effects: Attenuation of Seismic Energy

3 Seismic Risk Assessment Procedure at City Level

4 SEISMIC HAZARD Deterministic Consider small number of scenarios: magnitude, distance, number of standard deviation of ground motion Choose the largest ground motion from cases considered Probabilistic Consider all possible scenarios: all magnitude, distance and number of

5 DETERMINISTIC APPROACH Attenuation Relationship

6 PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD Seismic source characterization Estimation of seismicity (recurrence) parameters for each source Selection of ground motion attenuation models Quantification of the seismic hazard Faults (line sources) F 1 SOURCE MODELS F 2 log(n) RECURRENCE pga, S a, A i GROUND MOTION ATTENUATION Area source M distance SEISMIC HAZARD MAP Probability of exceedance SEISMIC HAZARD CURVES Acceleration

7 SOURCE CHARACTERIZATION Active faults of eastern Marmara region during the last century (Akyuz et al., 2000) The recent high-resolution bathymetric map obtained from the survey of the Ifremer RV Le Suroit vessel that indicates a single, thoroughgoing strike-slip fault system (LePichon et al., 2001)

8 Historical Earthquakes: the Earthquake Catalog The long-term seismicity of the Marmara region (Seismicity between 32 AD 1983 taken from Ambraseys and Finkel, 1991)

9 The sequence of earthquakes in the 18 th century (after Hubert- Ferrari, 2000).

10 The seismic activity of the Marmara region with M>3 events from August 17, 1999 to present Koeri, 2002

11 Koeri, 2002

12 Source Zonation Scheme Koeri, 2002

13 RECURRENCE RELATIONSHIPS Koeri, 2002

14 The NEHRP-based Soil Classification Koeri, 2002

15 Site-correction Defined in the 1997 NEHRP Provisions (NEHRP 1997). Fa, the short period site-correction defined in the 1997 NEHRP Provisions (NEHRP 1997) Fv, the long period site correction defined in 1997 NEHRP Provisions (NEHRP 1997)

16 Site dependent seismic hazard assessment Koeri, 2002 Site dependent SA (T=0.2 s) map for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years

17 Site dependent seismic hazard assessment Koeri, 2002 Site dependent SA (T=1.0 s) map for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years

18 Standard Shape of the Design Spectrum (NEHRP 1997) Sa S MS Sa=S M1 / T S M1 0.4 S MS T 0 T S 1.0 Period

19 RISK ASSESSMENT ANALYSIS LEVELS National Level City Level (District & Sub-district) Building Level

20 Risk Assessment At NATIONAL Level Intensity based estimation for the total damage for each city

21 Assessment Procedures At Building Level Members Capacity Strong Ground Motion Time Histroy

22 Seismic Risk Assessment Procedure at City Level

23 ELEMENTS AT RISK Buildings Lifeline Systems Built Environment Population Socio-Economic Activities

24 Vulnerability Estimation Methodology Observed Vulnerability Based on Previous Earthquake Damage Data Calculated Vulnerability Based on computed performance of the building class

25 Advantage Observed Vulnerability Based on Observed Damage in previous Earthquakes Simple Concept Limitations Intensity Based that does not fit to Current Engineering parameters Regional Building Class Can not apply to New Classes of building

26 HAZUS, 2003

27 Classification of Structural Damages EMS-1998

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29 Koeri, 2002

30 Advantage Calculated Vulnerability Based on Engineering Ground Motion Parameters Applied to all building classes Based on Soil and Structural Response Limitations Not based on damage data Non-structural failure can not be considered

31 HAZUS, 2003

32 General Analysis Procedure For Buildings Loss Estimation IST, 2004

33 Line plot for vulnerability curves

34 Classification of Structural Damage (1) Slight damage (2) Moderate damage (3) Extensive damage (4) Complete damage Classification of Casualties Severity 1 Injuries requiring basic medical aid without requiring hospitalization Severity 2 Injuries requiring a greater degree of medical care and hospitalization Severity 3 Injuries that pose an immediate life threatening condition if not treated adequately and expeditiously Severity 4 Instantaneously killed or mortally injured

35 Example for Classification of Building Types According to Existing Database Construction Type ( I ) 1. Skeleton type reinforced concrete building 2. Reinforced concrete shear wall buildings 3. Masonry and plain concrete buildings Number of stories ( J ) 1. Low rise (1-3 stories) 2. Mid rise (4-6 stories) 3. High-rise (more than 6 stories) Construction date ( K ) 1. Construction year: Pre Construction year: Post-1985

36 Input Building Inventory Database for Geo-Cells Input Spectral Acceleration for Geo-Cells Input Spectral Displacement Based Vulnerabilities Calibration with Intensity Based Vulnerabilities Input Capacity Curve for each Building Type Input Economic Loss Data Parameters Input Demographic Database for Geo-Cells Input Casualties Loss data Parameters Compute Building Damage Ratio for each Building Types Compute Number of Damaged Buildings for each building Class Compute Direct Economic Loss for each Building Damage State Compute Casualties for each Injury Groups Casualtie s Losses for geo- Cells, Subdistrict, Districts Economi c Losses for geo- Cells, Subdistrict, Districts Buildings Damages for geo- Cells, Subdistrict, Districts Spectral Displacement Based Loss Estimation Analysis

37 Transportation Systems Highway Systems: A highway transportation system consists of roadways, bridges and tunnels. ( geographical location, classification, and replacement cost of the system components) Highway Roads Major Roads Urban Roads Highway Bridges

38 Transportation system: Earthquake Vulnerability and Damage Road damages consist of the surface damages and collapse of the neighboring slopes or retaining walls. Also collapsed underpasses or buildings can block the traffic even if the motorway is not damaged. According to ATC 25, the ratio of damage of local roads during an earthquake are given as %2 for MMI V, %4 for MMI VI, %11 for MMI VII, and %32 for MMI VIII

39 Lifeline Utility Systems Potable Water System A potable water system consists of pipelines, water treatment plants, wells, storage tanks and pumping stations. ( geographical location and classification of system components. repair cost for pipelines ) Brittle Pipe Ductile Pipe Wells, Water Storage Tanks, Water Treatment Plants Pumping Plants Waste Water A waste water system consists of pipelines, waste water treatment plants and lift stations. (geographical location and classification of system components, repair cost for pipelines).

40 Damage Functions for Water Pipelines

41 STRUCLOSS 1.4 SOFTWARE (Updated Version of KoeriLoss 1.0) StrucLoss 1.4 is an updated version of Koeriloss software. The updated version is developed by Earthquake and Structural Department of Gebze Institute of Technology, Turkey. Major Updates Integrate the deterministic hazard into the software for widely used attenuation relationships computation is integrated. Provide Intensity range outputs of the results for each damage states of each building types. Calibration and testing the capacity curve and fragility curve parameters can be done more accurately and in fast way.

42 Adnalyis Method Options Options Icons Input and Control Data Files Start Analyis

43 Integration of KOERILoss and MapInfo Graphics

44 ISTANBUL EARTHQUAKE RISK ASSESSMENT PROJECT

45 Deterministic Seismic Hazard Mw=7.5 scenario earthquake for Istanbul and vicinity

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47 GRID BASED BUILDING DISTRIBUTION

48 Site dependent deterministic intensity distribution

49 Site-dependent deterministic SA(T=0.2 sec) values in units of g

50 Site-dependent deterministic SA(T=1.0 sec) values in units of g

51 Moderate Damage Distribution of Mid-Rise Pre-1980 R/C Buildings

52 Extensive Damage Distribution of Mid-Rise Pre-1980 R/C Buildings

53 Complete Damage Distribution of Mid-Rise Pre-1980 R/C Buildings

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57 GREATER AMMAN MUNICIPALITY (GAM)-JORDAN EARTHQUAKE RISK ASSESSMENT PROJECT

58 Boundaries of Greater Amman Municipality districts

59 Geo-Grid Grid mesh for the study (cell size 500x500m).

60 Geological map of GAM

61 A census block at city center of GAM with 500x500 Geo-Grid Grid layer

62 Building Parameters for Skeleton Type, Floors (One Building of 2 Floors ) Concrete Type Reinforced Steel Type X Grids Spaces Y Grids Spaces Floor Height Internal Column Dimension (Floor 1) Internal Column Dimension (Floor 2) Before < kg/cm2 275 Mpa 4.5 m 4.5 m m 30 x 30 cm 30 x 30 cm After > kg/cm2 400 Mpa 4.0 m 4.0 m m 25 x 50 cm 25 x 50 cm External Column Dimesinon (Floor 1) External Column Dimesinon (Floor 2) Shear wall Thickness Internal Beam Dimensions External Beam Dimesions Slab Type Slab Thickness Average Percenatge of Steel in Columns (%) Average Percenatge of Steel in Beam (%) 30 x 30 cm 30 x 30 cm no 30 x 50 cm 30 x 50 cm RC solid slab 15 cm x 50 cm 25 x 50 cm 30 cm 70x25 cm 50x25 cm Rib slap

63 Structural Model RC skeleton, 1-3 Stories, pre 1985 Buildings Type (111) Structural Model RC skeleton, 1-3 Stories, post 1985 Buildings Type (112)

64 Capacity Curve Computations Capacity Curve ( +X Direction) Sa (g) Capacity Curve Linearized Bilinear Sd (m)

65 Fragility Curve Estimation

66 . Example of site-dependent deterministic strong ground motion distribution

67 Thank you