Post-Harvest Diseases of Apples: From Spore Dispersal to Epidemiology

Transcription

1 Post-Harvest Diseases of Apples: From Spore Dispersal to Epidemiology p. 1/36 Post-Harvest Diseases of Apples: From Spore Dispersal to Epidemiology Rebecca C. Tyson Louise Nelson Meghan Dutot, Katrina Williams UBC Okanagan, Kelowna, BC

2 Post-Harvest Diseases of Apples: From Spore Dispersal to Epidemiology p. 2/36 Post-Harvest Diseases Fungal infection causes severe decay of apples during storage

3 Post-Harvest Diseases of Apples: From Spore Dispersal to Epidemiology p. 3/36 Spore Dispersal to Epidemiology Primary Inoculation ground level point source for spores (decaying fruit, leaf litter,...) at the packinghouse, other spore sources: dump tanks, wounding,... Secondary Inoculation and Disease Spread end of storage period long distance dispersal via air currents spore dispersal to neighbours CA storage

4 Post-Harvest Diseases of Apples: From Spore Dispersal to Epidemiology p. 4/36 Disease Incidence and Orchard Management Assumption : There is a direct causal relationship between orchard management practices and disease incidence on stored fruit. Evidence : Spotts et. al. (2009) At-harvest prediction of grey mould risk in pear fruit in long-term cold storage. Crop Protection 28(5): Spotts, R.A., Sanderson, P.G., Lennox, C.L., Sugar, D., and Cervantes, L.A Wounding, wound healing and staining of mature pear fruit. Postharvest Biology and Technology 13:27-36.

5 Post-Harvest Diseases of Apples: From Spore Dispersal to Epidemiology p. 5/36 Field Study In the Orchard: Spore presence sticky pane trap In CA storage: Disease incidence tissue samples wounded apples

6 Orchard 3 Penicillium Expansum (2007) Data Orchard 3 Botrytis cinerea (2007) air samples tissue samples air samples tissue samples Pathogen DNA (ng) Pathogen DNA (ng) Date Date % infected infection severity Percent Infected Infection Severity Duration of Storage (months) Spore presence data predicted very little. Post-Harvest Diseases of Apples: From Spore Dispersal to Epidemiology p. 6/36

7 Post-Harvest Diseases of Apples: From Spore Dispersal to Epidemiology p. 7/36 Spore Dispersal to Epidemiology Primary Inoculation ground level point source for spores (decaying fruit, leaf litter,...) at the packinghouse, other spore sources: dump tanks, wounding,... Secondary Inoculation and Disease Spread end of storage period long distance dispersal via air currents spore dispersal to neighbours CA storage

8 Post-Harvest Diseases of Apples: From Spore Dispersal to Epidemiology p. 8/36 Model #1: Spore Dispersal Source: Stockie, J.M. (2010) The mathmatics of atmopheric dispersion modelling. Atmopheric Environment 44:

9 Post-Harvest Diseases of Apples: From Spore Dispersal to Epidemiology p. 9/36 Gaussian Plume Model for a Point Source Steady-State solution: C(r,y,z) = Q 4πur exp )[ ) ( y2 (z H)2 exp ( 4r 4r +exp )] (z +H)2 ( 4r where and where r = 1 u x 0 K(ξ)d(ξ) C = concentration of contaminant (x, y, z) = cartesian coordinates centred at the source u = wind velocity H = height of the source Q = emission rate Source: Stockie (2010) The mathematics of atmospheric dispersion modelling Atmospheric Environment 44(8):

10 Post-Harvest Diseases of Apples: From Spore Dispersal to Epidemiology p. 10/36 Assumptions 1. contaminant emitted at a constant rate and constant height 2. constant wind velocity aligned with positive x-axis 3. parameters are time-independant & the time scale is long 4. eddy diffusivities, K, functions of x only & diffusion is isotropic 5. wind velocity is sufficiently large so that diffusion in the x-direction is negligible 6. variations in topography are negligible 7. the contaminant does not penetrate the ground

11 Concentration Profiles Post-Harvest Diseases of Apples: From Spore Dispersal to Epidemiology p. 11/36

12 Post-Harvest Diseases of Apples: From Spore Dispersal to Epidemiology p. 12/36 Orchard & Receptor Layout spore source (ground level) spore receptor (canopy level) apple trees dimensions: 10m x 10m How many spore receptors does it take to get an accurate measure of spore presence?

13 Post-Harvest Diseases of Apples: From Spore Dispersal to Epidemiology p. 13/36 Simulation Experiments Consider S = measure of total spore presence detected by t = T = S(C( X s ),n r, T, W,n s ), where n r = **number of spore receptors (0 n 100), T = simulation time, W = vector of wind data for (0 t T), n s X s = number of spore sources, = position of spore sources. Test: optimal n r Experiment: fix all parameters, Replicates (20): vary X s.

14 Simulation Results - Spore Detection Post-Harvest Diseases of Apples: From Spore Dispersal to Epidemiology p. 14/36

15 Simulation Results - Monthly Averages Post-Harvest Diseases of Apples: From Spore Dispersal to Epidemiology p. 15/36

16 Simulation Results - Percent Nonzero Detection Post-Harvest Diseases of Apples: From Spore Dispersal to Epidemiology p. 16/36

17 Simulation Results - Receptor Arrangement Post-Harvest Diseases of Apples: From Spore Dispersal to Epidemiology p. 17/36

18 Simulation Results - Receptor Arrangement Post-Harvest Diseases of Apples: From Spore Dispersal to Epidemiology p. 18/36

19 Simulation Results - Receptor Arrangement Post-Harvest Diseases of Apples: From Spore Dispersal to Epidemiology p. 19/36

20 Post-Harvest Diseases of Apples: From Spore Dispersal to Epidemiology p. 20/36 Spore Dispersal to Epidemiology Primary Inoculation ground level point source for spores (decaying fruit, leaf litter,...) at the packinghouse, other spore sources: dump tanks, wounding,... Secondary Inoculation and Disease Spread end of storage period long distance dispersal via air currents spore dispersal to neighbours CA storage

21 Post-Harvest Diseases of Apples: From Spore Dispersal to Epidemiology p. 21/36 Model #2: Epidemiology - Why? It is expensive to open the storage rooms to assess the extent of disease. Accurate prediction of disease-free storage periods would prevent major crop losses.

22 Post-Harvest Diseases of Apples: From Spore Dispersal to Epidemiology p. 22/36 Model #2: Epidemiology wound with fungal spores 1. growth of the fungus (ODE) 2. spread of the fungus (SIR, local contacts) 2b. additional spread via air currents

23 Post-Harvest Diseases of Apples: From Spore Dispersal to Epidemiology p. 23/36 Fungal Growth Model Apple Substrate (A) Fungal Biomass (B) Infected Apple Substrate (I) da dt di dt db dt = αgia = αgia βi = GI µb Time (days) Adapted From: Lamour et.al. (2002) Quasi-steady state approximation to a fungal growth model Journal of Mathematics Applied in Medicine and Biology 19:

24 Disease Spread Post-Harvest Diseases of Apples: From Spore Dispersal to Epidemiology p. 24/36

25 Post-Harvest Diseases of Apples: From Spore Dispersal to Epidemiology p. 25/36 Disease Spread - SIR spore production disease spread f(n,t) Infection spread from one apple to another is given by f(n,t) = 1(N) p γ(t), where N = number of nearest neighbours that have B(t) > B min p = baseline infection rate γ(t) = susceptibility function, γ (t) > 0

26 Post-Harvest Diseases of Apples: From Spore Dispersal to Epidemiology p. 26/36 Results - Initial Infection initial infection = 1% initial infection = 10% rate of infection spread rate of infection spread time (months) time (months)

27 Post-Harvest Diseases of Apples: From Spore Dispersal to Epidemiology p. 27/36 Results - Spread & Susceptibility disease incidence (%) (a) disease incidence (%) (b) time (months) time (months) disease incidence (%) (c) (a) local spread only (b) local & global spread (c) increasing susceptibility susceptibility ( γ )

28 Results - Storage Duration Post-Harvest Diseases of Apples: From Spore Dispersal to Epidemiology p. 28/36

29 Post-Harvest Diseases of Apples: From Spore Dispersal to Epidemiology p. 29/36 Results - Rate of Infection Spread Storage Duration (months) Factor Treatment Location Aggregation Center Side Corner Clumped Dispersed

30 Results - 3D Post-Harvest Diseases of Apples: From Spore Dispersal to Epidemiology p. 30/36

31 Post-Harvest Diseases of Apples: From Spore Dispersal to Epidemiology p. 31/36 Conclusions The accumulation of rare events over a long period of time mean high variability in the outcome. Predictable: number and placement of orchard receptors needed to obtain reliable measure of spore presence storage time for which risk of unacceptable crop loss is acceptable

32 Post-Harvest Diseases of Apples: From Spore Dispersal to Epidemiology p. 32/36 Hypothesis spore dispersal initial infection Primary Inoculation orchard management point source for spores (decaying fruit, leaf litter,...) at the packinghouse, other spore sources: dump tanks, wounding,... Secondary Inoculation and Disease Spread end of storage period long distance dispersal via air currents spore dispersal to neighbours CA storage

33 Post-Harvest Diseases of Apples: From Spore Dispersal to Epidemiology p. 33/36 Correlations with Spore Presence Significant correlations between: 1. air DNA wind direction (p = 0.01) 2. tissue DNA average temp (p = 0.017) average temp day before measurement (p = 0.028) rainfall day before measurement (p = 0.038) maximum wind speed (p = 0.014) Regression of (2) gives R 2 = and σ =

34 Post-Harvest Diseases of Apples: From Spore Dispersal to Epidemiology p. 34/36 Correlations with Disease Incidence Significant correlations between: percent infected m, number of months in storage (p = 0.000) C i, average temp last i days (p = 0.005, & 0.003) R i, rainfall during last i days (p = & 0.032) Sp i, average tissue spore count last i days (p = & 0.000) i = 50, 14 or 1 R 2 parameters included R R 14 and m R 14, m, and C R 14, m, C 14, and Sp 14

35 Post-Harvest Diseases of Apples: From Spore Dispersal to Epidemiology p. 35/36 Modified Model with Absorption C(x,y,z) = Q 2πu ( ) 1 y 2 exp σ z 2σy 2 1 ( ) (H z) 2 [exp σ z 2σ 2 z ( )] (H +z) 2 +Rexp 2σ 2 z where σ z = K(z 0 )ax b, σ y = K(z 0 )10 p x q a, b,,p,q = stability class constants, empirical z 0 = roughness length R = absorption at ground level (1 - reflection, 0 - absorption) Source: Spijkerboer et. al. (2002) Ability of the Gaussian Plume Model to predict spore dispersal over a potato crop. Ecological Modelling 155:1-18

36 Post-Harvest Diseases of Apples: From Spore Dispersal to Epidemiology p. 36/36 Vertical Plume wind above canopy level canopy level ground level Source: Stockie, J.M. (2010) The mathmatics of atmopheric dispersion modelling. Atmopheric Environment 44: