Prague using random utility framework

Transcription

1 Modelng recreaton demand n urban forests n Prague usng random utlty framework Jan MELICHAR a Jan URBAN Charles Unversty Envronment Center Semnar on Forestry Valuaton and Polcy Relevance December 14, 2007

2 Motvaton the grant of the Czech Mnstry of Agrculture research on valuaton of recreaton functons of forests n CR to derve recreaton demand functons for forest recreaton (short trps, one-day and more-day trps) by TCM travel costs models based on dscrete choce random utlty framework to nfer determnants of recreaton demand and to estmate welfare change assocated wth the change of forests attrbutes. njury on forest qualty. tree composton. age structure of forests v. e. Valuaton of recreaton functons of urban woodland areas and parks n Prague short trps up to 4 hours

3 The value of recreaton losses assocated wth 1. a closure of each urban forest stes n Prague 2. a 50 % decrease n extent of urban forest stes, number of benches and length of trals

4 Random utlty model foundaton and applcatons Dscrete choce demand modelng choce of ste McFadden s work (McFadden, 1974, 1978 and 2001) frst appled by Hanemann (1978) n order to derve recreaton demand later developed by Bockstael et al. (1986) swmmng, fshng, huntng or hkng Feenberg and Mlls (1980) on water polluton, Morey (1985) on the choce of sk areas, or Adamowcz et al. (1997) on moose huntng

5 Random utlty model, basc model Utlty functon v = β + β q + q e Choce β k + β q q k + e k β + β q q + e, S Utlty maxmazaton from trps u = max( v, v 2,... v 1 s ) No-parpaton v = α + α z e Parsons (2003)

6 Specfcaton of probablty model Probablty of vstng ste k pr ( β β q a α 0 + α 1 z + e k + q k 0 + ). e k β + β q q + e, S Multnomnal logt model pr( k) = exp( α + α z) + exp( β + β q k S q k ) exp( β + β q 0 1 q = 1 ) Parsons (2003)

7 Access and qualty change value Welfare loss due to closure of recreaton ste # 1 W close { close base } = U U β Welfare change due to qualty change q* W change = { change base } U U β Parsons (2003)

8 Study area Urban forests n Prague BOHNICKÉ ÚDOLÍ ĎÁBLICKÝ ČIMICKÝ HÁJ HÁJ TICHÁ A DIVOKÁ ŠÁRKA STROMOVKA OBORA HVĚZDA LETENSKÉ SADY PETŘÍN DALEJSKÉ ÚDOLÍ NA CIBULKÁCH - MOTOL O PROKOPSKÉ ÚDOLÍ HOSTIVAŘSKÝ LESOPARK XAVEROVSKÝ HÁJ KLÁNOVICKÝ LES KOPANINSKÝ LES CHUCHELSKÝ HÁJ KRČSKÝ LES MODŘANSKÁ ROKLE KUNRATICKO- MICHELSKÝ LES MILÍČKOVSKÝ LES PRŮHONICKÝ PARK

9 Survey mplementaton off-ste samplng pretest n 11-12/2006,,p plot n 1/2007 (50 respondents) man survey 3-4/2007 by SC&C spol. s. r. o. quota samplng (sex, age, educaton) pen-and-paper questonnare (35 mnutes) 303 completed questonnares for Prague recreaton object: short term trps (up to 4 h) carred out to urban forests n Prague recreaton season: 4 10 /2006

10 Seasonal average number of short trps accordng to each urban forest letná hostvař stromovka petřín prokopák šárka krč kunrae hvězda chuchle mlíčov průhonce dalej modřany ďáblce motol bohnce kopanna čmce xaverov

11 Descrptve characterss of sample Length of trp 3,73 hours Age (n average 44 years) Secondary educaton (39 %), unversty degree (14 %) Net month ncome CZK

12 Type of recreaton actvty on trp 1% 5% 3% 15% bcycle 11% walkng 0% runnng take the dog walk n-lnes chldren 65% other

13 Mode of transport on trp 20% 12% 13% car publc transport bke just walk 55%

14 Specfcaton of emprcal model TRAVEL COST - + MODE TRAILS + - UTILITY - ACTIVITY EDUCATION BENCH WOODLAND AREA FAMILY OCCUPATION PEOPLE

15 Multnomnal model fnal model Parameters Estmates Standard Estmate/s.e. Probablty error area trals bench car walkng second marred fulltme <2poople const Mean log-lkelhood = Number of cases = 179

16 Mean seasonal per person recreatonal values n CZK kunrae petrn stromov krc letna sarka motol hostvar prokop pruhon chuchle hvezda modran mlc dalej dablce cmce kopanna xaverov bohnce 1 USD = 22 CZK

17 Welfare loss due to 50 % decrease of (n CZK 2006) -20 wood area number of benches length of trals

18 Conclusons Negatve sgnfcant relatonshp between trps demanded and travel costs as theory assumes sgnfcant postve mpact of recreatonal components n urban forests and forest area on recreaton demand no-recreaton opton explaned n postve manner by secondary educaton and fulltme job n negatve manner by sze of famly and walkng n forests Attenton: estmates and sgnfcance of parameters could be restrctve due to sample sze future work: multnomnal model on one-day trps and more-day trps n CR

19 Thank you for your attenton Jan Melchar Jan Urban The research on ths study was supported by the grant of the Czech Mnstry of the Agrculture: 1R Monetary valuaton of recreatonal and aestheal functon of forest n the CR wthn the program Krajna a Budoucnost. Ths support s gratefully acknowledged..