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1 Receved: 4 th Aprl-2014 Revsed: 24 th May-2014 Accepted: 25 th May-2014 Research artcle FATORS AFFETING THE WILLINGNESS TO PAY OF GHOROGH FOREST PARK VISITORS IN IRAN Elham Kalbal 1, Mahmoud Ahmadpour Borazjan 2, Hads Kavand 3, Samra Soltan 4, Ehsan Kalbal 5 1 MSc Student of Agrcultural Economcs, ollege of Agrculture, Unversty of Zabol. 2 Assstant Professor of Agrcultural Economcs Department, ollege of Agrculture, Unversty of Zabol. 3 PhD Student of Agrcultural Economcs, ollege of Agrculture, Unversty of Zabol 4 Graduates n Agrcultural Economcs, ollege of Agrculture, Unversty of Marvdasht 5 MSc Student of Watershed, ollege of Natural resources, Unversty of Zabol orrespondng author Address E-mal: elham_kalbal@yahoo.com ABSTRAT: Ghorogh forest park s located n Gorgan cty, Golestan provnce, whch s one of tourstc areas due to the natural attractons. Ths study specfed the factors affectng the wllngness to pay of vstors and the amount they are wllng to pay for forest park usng contngent valuaton and applcaton of Tobt model and estmated the average wllngness to pay of them for usng the park.the requred data were collected n sprng 2013 trough questonnares fllng and conductng ntervews wth 120 vstors of the park. Results showed that the number of household members and ncome were the varables nfluencng the wllngness to pay. Average wllngness to pay per vstor for each vst was estmated 2623 Rals and annual recreatonal value of Ghorogh forest park, assumng 1.5 mllon vstors, was around 4 bllon Rals. Keywords: ontngent Valuaton, Wllngness to Pay, Tobt, Ghorogh Forest Park, Iran INTRODUTION Despte the mportance of the ecosystem on human lfe, ts real value has not been defned. So that one of the man challenges governments are facng n the 21 st century s envronmental crses. Msunderstandng of the servces provded by ecosystem s consdered as a serous threat to the socety. Therefore, adoptng the correct ecosystem management procedures and drect or ndrect operaton of servces and goods resultng from t s requred. Envronmental servces and applcatons often have a very hgh value but are rarely traded n markets. However, due to the lack of the possblty of accurate and quanttatve analyss n macro-polcy and decson makng, they do not get enough attenton. Quantfyng these benefts n order to clarfy the mportance of these resources s mpossble n practce, but nowadays some efforts are made worldwde to nclude the value of these resources n the natonal accounts by utlzng varous economc theores. However, such efforts to acheve ths goal can be very effectve n mantanng and protectng these resources[16 ]. One of today's crtera whch has been focused by the nternatonal communty n order to acheve sustanable development ncludes mprovng the qualty of ecosystem, controllng and montorng the contnuty and survval of the natural landscapes. However, n tradtonal accountng process and common accountng methods, tems lke socal costs resultng from envronmental contamnaton or depleton of natural resources are gnored due to not beng n economc transactons. So, one of the most mmedate ssues that needs to be consdered by polcy makers wth the am of mplementng envronmental polces s to pay attenton to the economc value of natural resources. Overall, the economc value of natural ecosystem s the monetary value of goods and servces that an ecosystem can provde. Part of these goods and servces s consdered as market commodtes due to beng tradable n markets (such as forest wood); however, another group s known as nonmarket goods because of beng non-tradable n the market and as though beng valuable, due to nablty to value them as monetary, they are often gnored n envronmental decson-makng [3]. Among ths group, t s worth notng the satsfacton of vstng a natural ecosystem whch s often known as a recreatonal value of an ecosystem. Internatonal Journal of Plant, Anmal and Envronmental Scences Page: 368 Avalable onlne at

2 Elham Kalbal et al IJPAES ISSN In another categorzaton of the value of ecosystem goods and servces, ensurng the satsfacton s n the category of consumable values of natural resources. onsumable values of natural resources play an mportant role n the creaton of economc added value. In today's world, exstence of recreatonal value of natural resources causes the formaton of natural toursm ndustry whch s an mportant source of ncome for some developng countres [22]. Due to the ncreasng demand for publc resorts and lesure facltes, analyss of the factors nfluencng people's demands from economc and socal standpont can help the predcton of recreatonal and entertanment needs. Another factor s the value that people consder to vst the publc resorts. Desrablty created from these spaces s the drect nterest of the resorts whch ncludes usng them for recreaton, entertanment, hkng, mountan clmbng, and aesthetc. Ths system provdes the requred mechansm to enhance human well-beng; therefore, quantfyng and understandng these benefts are hghly mportant. In other words, the estmated monetary value of ths knd of servces plays double role n fuson management of human and natural systems. At the mcro level, valuaton studes lead access to nformaton relatng to ecosystem structure and functon and ther sophstcated and vared role n supportng human well-beng and sustanable development. Economc valuaton can be postvely nvolved n better envronmental polces. Today, the need for understandng and applyng the ecologcal values n nvestments, development and ndustral projects, and polces related to decson-makng s clearly evdent [9]. Several studes have examned the factors affectng the wllngness to pay of vstors and the amount of benefts obtaned from vsted resorts usng dfferent methods of valuaton [8]. In a study, usng a two-stage Heckman method, t was concluded that varables of ncome, educaton, household sze and gender affected the wllngness to pay of vstors and varables of ncome, household sze, educaton, age and vstors satsfacton from the condton of amentes affected the wllngness to pay of vstors vstng St. Stephanus hurch [15]. Recreatonal value of hahnme was estmated usng the contngent valuaton method. The average wllngness to pay of vstors for ths resort was estmated 3920 Rals per vst and ts annual recreatonal value was estmated 1568 mllon Rals [12]. The value of Anzal recreaton pond was estmated usng the contngent valuaton method. Researchers estmated the average wllngness to pay of people for Anzal recreaton pond about 14.9 thousand Rals and ts annual recreatonal value was equal to 1490 mllon Rals [2]. Usng the contngent valuaton method, recreatonal value of Golestan Natonal Park was estmated. The study estmated the average wllngness to pay of vstors for recreatonal use of the park equal to 3520 Rals per vst and the annual tourst value of the park equal to 1.96 mllon Rals per hectare. Factors of ncome, offered prce and educaton level affected the wllngness to pay [7]. Usng the contngent valuaton and a two-stage Heckman procedure, t was concluded that ncome and household sze of vstors affected the wllngness to pay of vstors vstng Mohtasham Park n Rasht ty [18]. Recreatonal value of cedar forests n Lebanon was calculated dollars annually for each household [10]. Recreatonal value of fve natonal parks n South Korea was obtaned dollars per famly annually n average, usng the contngent valuaton method and factors of offered prce, age, and educaton were reported to affect the thr wllngness to pay [17]. Usng the contngent valuaton, studes showed that the average wllngness to pay of Skaftafell Natonal Park and Gullfoss waterfall vstors were 508 and 333 mllon Kroner of Iceland, respectvely. Ther ncome, atttudes toward the envronment, number of prevous vsts, accommodaton, entrance payment hstory, age, and educaton were ntroduced as the factors affectng the wllngness to pay [6]. A study estmated the value of ecosystem servces n a regon n Turkey equal to dollars per household annually, usng contngent valuaton approach. Ghorogh Forest Park s located n 24 klometers east of Gorgan, Mashhad route. The park has an area of 650 hectares and s located n the plan area. A wldlfe park nsde the park (an area to keep wld anmals) s avalable. It also has some wooden shelters for vstors and other facltes for ther accommodaton. urrently, more than 30 deer are kept n the park. Ghorogh Forest Park s one of the major resorts of Gorgan whch s exploted n vast area all year long. The current study amed to dentfy factors affectng the wllngness to pay of vstors and the amount they wsh to pay for vstng Ghorogh Forest Park. Determnng the value and mportance of ths park can be an ncentve for people to protect t. MATERIALS AND METHODS ontngent valuaton method creates a hypothetcal market for envronmental goods and makes use of studyng a questonnare to elct wllngness to pay of ndvduals for changes n qualty or servces. ontngent valuaton method can measure both value of use and value of non-use. ontngent valuaton s the only method that cans drectly measure exstental and expected values [4]. ontngent valuaton technque s used to estmate the benefts of envronmental goods, servces and the lke. The purpose of ths method s to obtan a precse estmaton of the benefts ganed not from market but from changng producton levels or prces of some publc goods and servces. ontngent valuaton method was ntroduced for the frst tme n 1947 by hrs and Vantrap and was used for the frst tme n 1960 by Davs [14]. The method s conventonally useful and applcable for two major values of exstental value and selecton value [21]. Data collecton s one of the basc ssues n ths method n whch feld study should be used mostly. Internatonal Journal of Plant, Anmal and Envronmental Scences Page: 369 Avalable onlne at

3 Elham Kalbal et al IJPAES ISSN Questonnare or ntervew can be used n the feld study. However, n ths method we are lookng for estmatng the value people grant to an envronmental phenomenon. Here, people are questoned how much they are wllng to pay for ths envronmental phenomenon. Ths ssue has two aspects one whch s that how much people are wllng to pay to accept ths beneft (benefts of an envronmental phenomenon). In ths case, the queston s how much people are wllng to pay for that ecologcal phenomenon. Obvously we consder the hghest wllngness to pay [19]. The most common approach to ths method s that the maxmum amounts of money that people are wllng to pay for the use or protecton of a good or servce wll be ask. Ths method requres applcaton of stages whch nclude: 1) rasng ntervewees awareness about the ssue under study, 2) creatng a hypothetcal market, 3) acqurng the offered prce, 4) estmatng the average wllngness to pay, and, 5) nvestgatng the factors nfluencng the wllngness to pay accordng to the defnton. There are some functons and equatons n econometrcs where n the dependent varable s truncated at the top or bottom. In ths case, the dependent varable s vsble only f ts value s hgher or lower than a certan lmt. Such varables are called censored varables n econometrc terms. In such knd of varables, censorng threshold s as not wantng to do the actvty despte havng ts condton. It should be noted that n the censored regresson models, the ndependent varables for all samples are known but the data of the dependent varables can be observed only n a lmted scope. The sample havng such a feature s called censored sample [5]. Tobn (1958) ntroduced a model for regresson of these varables. Ths model was developed by Goldberger and called Tobn Probt or Tobt model and was used n several cases [20]. The dependent varable n the Tobt model mples two groups or states n nature that usually take zero and non-zero values. Postve values ndcate the occurrence and the level of desred actvty and zero values mply ts non-occurrence [13]. The estmated Tobt model for Ghorogh Forest Park vstors s as follows: = β + ε X f = = 0 f >0 0 X where n β s the value vector, s the vector of ndependent varables ncludng soco-economc and envronmental characterstcs of the respondents, and ε s the dsturbng part. For someone who s wllng to pay, s the actual level of wllngness to pay and for someone who s not wllng to pay s zero [11]. It beleves that observatons above the censored threshold can be expressed as follows: E( ) = E( > 0) = β X + E( ε ε > β X ) φ( β X δ ) E( > 0) = β X + δ ϕ β X δ ( ) so that φ( β X δ ) and ϕ( β X δ ) densty functon n ( β X δ ) are the standard normal densty functon and standard normal cumulatve value, respectvely. The left sde of the equaton 4 represents the expected value of when β X > 0. E ε ε > β X ) n the equaton 4 s the expected error component when t s larger than ( β X. larfcaton of Tobt provdes the possblty to consder the decsons related to entrance WTP and condtonal levels of wllngness to pay for makng decson for wllngness to pay [13]. The relatonshp between total observatons, average observatons above the censored pont of dependent varable and the probablty of beng above the censored pont can be demonstrated as follows: E( ) = ϕ ( Z ) E( ) E( ) β X Z = δ Then, n order to assess the effect of the change n the varable of equaton was used: E ( ) ( ) ( ) E φ ( Z ) = φ Z + E ( ) X X X X on () 1 ( 2) () 3 ( 4) () 5 ( 7) ( 6) (aggregate elastcty), the followng Internatonal Journal of Plant, Anmal and Envronmental Scences Page: 370 Avalable onlne at () 8

4 Elham Kalbal et al IJPAES ISSN In other words, aggregate elastcty, the aggregate elastcty of the predcted probablty level of wllngness to pay (the frst part of the rght part of the equaton) and the condtonal expected value elastcty (the second part of the rght part of the equaton) [1]. The data requred n ths study was collected by ntervewng Ghorogh Forest Park vstors and fllng the questonnares by them n sprng For samplng wth smple random samplng, 120 vstors were ntervewed. SPSS 16 and shazam9 software were used for data analyss. RESULTS AND DISUSSION The data related to the flled questonnare were extracted and analyzed statstcally. The questonnare covered the questons such as age, gender, educaton, number of household members, monthly ncome and the number of vsts from the forest park. Table 1 presents the general data descrpton of Ghorogh Forest Park vstors n sprng Accordng to ths table, the averages related to famly ncome, age, number of school year, number of household members, gender and wllngness to pay were 979 thousand Tumans, approxmately 35 years, 14 school years, 3.73 people, 0.5 gender, respectvely and the average wllngness to pay was 700 Tumans. Overall, mean age of the respondents was nearly 35 years and also they had a hgh ncome (average annual ncome was around 9800 thousand Rals). Based on a feld data, the ntercept of most vstors were several ctes of Golestan provnce. Also, most vstors to the forest park had vsted t for several tmes and approxmately 80% of the respondents stated that they would stll travel to the regon and only 20 percent gave negatve answer to the questons of ther wllngness to vst agan. Table 1 descrpton of the general data of Ghorogh Forest Park vstors n 2013 Varables Max Mn Varance Standard Devaton Mean Offered Prce Age ( years ) Gender 1* Household sze (people) Monthly ncome (Thousand Rals) Educaton (years) Source: Results of the questonnare * Gender varable consderng ts beng qualtatve ncludes female (0) and man (1). Table 2 demonstrates the condton of answerng to the proposed prces for amusement value of Ghorogh forest park n Golestan provnce n sprng Based on ths table, 111 people (92.5 %) out of 120 questonnares showed wllngness to pay for recreatonal use of the park (.e. they answered yes to the queston of wllngness to pay) and 11 people (7.5 %) were not wllng to pay for the use of the park. wllngness to pay results n ths table show that 53 people (44%) dd not accept the frst offer. In fact, they were not wllng to pay 1000 Rals to vst Ghorogh forest park, whle 67 people (56%) accepted t. When the lower prce proposed, 74 people (61%) rejected the proposal. Those respondents who adopted the frst proposal (10,000 Rals) were put n hgher offer group (20,000 Rals) that 7 people (5%) accepted the thrd proposal and 60 people rejected t. Accordng to the calculatons, the average wllngness to pay as the entrance fee for each tourst was obtaned 7000 Rals. Table 2 Status of answerng to the 3 proposed prces to calculate amusement value of Ghorogh Forest Park ondton of acceptance Acceptance of the offered prce Rejecton of the offered prce Sum Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent n Frst proposed prce10000 (Rals/ every vst) Lower proposal5000 (Rals/ every vst) hgher offer20000 (Rals /every vst) Internatonal Journal of Plant, Anmal and Envronmental Scences Page: 371 Avalable onlne at

5 Elham Kalbal et al IJPAES ISSN In regresson models wth qualtatve dependent varable, calculatng the coeffcent of determnaton (R²) s not possble and nstead, ox and Snell (1989) presented R² based on the lkelhood log that ts maxmum amount doesn t reach to one. Then, Nagelerke regulated R² of ox and Snell n New statstc of R² can also take the value of one. Based on the results lsted n Table 3, the aggregate elastcty for explanatory varable of famly sze was 0.5. Assumng the other factors constant and gven ts negatve relatonshp, on average, a one percent ncrease n ths varable decreases the probablty of wllngness to pay of vstors to 0.5%. The negatve and sgnfcant relatonshp of famly sze suggests that by ncreasng the number of famly members, wllngness to pay reduces due to lower per capta ncome. Aggregate elastcty for explanatory varable of vstors ncome shows that an ncrease of one percent of these varables, assumng the other factors constant, wll have an ncrease of 0.04 n the probablty of wllngness to pay of vstors. Snce the ncrease n per capta ncome wll ncrease lqudty for everyday actvtes, ncrease n wllngness to pay of vstors s natural. Moreover, the educaton varable ndcates that a one unt ncrease n the average educaton, assumng the other factors constant, wll lead to the reducton of 0.07 unt n the average wllngness to pay of vstors. The results of ths study ndcate that factors such as number of household members and ncome have a sgnfcant effect on the wllngness to pay but only the economc factor of ncome s the most mportant one on the wllngness to pay for envronmental servces. Based on the results obtaned from lnear regresson model, the average wllngness to pay of vstors for the use of Ghorogh Forest Park s calculated about 2623 Rals per vst from the followng equaton: WTP = ( ) - ( ) + ( ) + ( ) - ( ) = Table 3 - Results of Tobt model estmaton of the factors range affectng the wllngness to pay of Ghorogh Varables estmated coeffcents value Forest Park vstors n standard devaton of coeffcents t-statstcs elastcty Intercept Age Gender Number of famly members Income Educaton Source: Results of the nvestgaton Accordng to these results, the majorty of respondents were wllng to pay a fee for Ghorogh recreatonal Forest Park facltes. Results from ths study ndcate that the majorty of vstors were not satsfed wth health condton and facltes of ths forest park. The fndngs show that the hgher the ncome the greater the lkelhood of a postve response to the stated wllngness to pay wll be. Furthermore, the ones who had the experence of payng for a destnaton resort were more wllng to pay for the use of recreatonal stes. reatng cultural envronment and ncreasng the qualty of the park structure such as creatng an envronment for studyng and tranng classes could attract educated people to these places. In addton, mprovement of health and welfare condton for people n these envronments leads to the ncrease of wllngness to pay n the Forest Park. REFERENES [1] Amgues, J., Boulatoff,.and Desagues, B The Benefts and osts of Rparan Analyss Habtat Preservaton: A Wllngness to Accept/ Wllngness to Pay ontngent Valuaton Approach. Ecologcal Economcs, 43,pp [2] Amrnejad, H, and Khallan, S Estmatng the Tourst Value of Natonal Park, Golestan and Determnaton Effectve Varables on Wllngness to Pay of Indvduals. The 5 th Iranan onference on Agrcultural Economcs. Sstan and Baluchestan Unversty, Zahedan. [3] Freeman, A The Measurement of Envronmental and Resource Value: Theory and Method Resources for the Future. hapter 3, Washngton, pp [4] Ghorban, M. and FroozZare, A Valuaton of Mashhad ar Polluton (ontngent Valuaton Approach). Journal of Economy and Regonal Development, 2, pp Internatonal Journal of Plant, Anmal and Envronmental Scences Page: 372 Avalable onlne at

6 Elham Kalbal et al IJPAES ISSN [5] Ghorban, M., Dehghanan, S. and FroozZare, A Socal and Economc Factors Affectng ontracts between the Farmers and Sugar Beet Industry of North Khorasan. Journal of Agrcultural Scence and Technology, 18, 2, pp [6] Gurluk,S The Estmaton of Ecosystem Servces Value n the Regon of Ms Rural Development Project: Result from A ontngent Valuaton Survey. Journal of Forest Polcy and Economcs, 9, 3, pp [7] KavoosKolashemy, M., Shahbaz. H.and Malekan, A Estmatng the value of Socal PromenadesUsngA Two-Step Heckman (ase Study: Mohtasham Park of Rasht). Journal of Agrcultural Economcs, 1, 1, pp [8] KhodaverdZadeh, M., Hayat, B. and KavoosKolashemy, M The Estmated Value of the Socal Tourst Vllage of East Azerbajan Kandovan Usng ontngent Valuaton. Journal of Envronmental Scences, 4, pp [9] KhorshdDoost, A Economc Analyss of Prcng Methods of the Envronment Evaluaton. Journal of Ecology, 20, pp [10] Lee,. and Han, S Estmatng the Use and Preservaton Values of Natonal Parks Toursm Resources Usng a ontngent Valuaton Method. Toursm Management, 23, pp [11] Maddala, GS Lmted-dependent and qualtatve varables n econometrcs,, No. 3.ambrdge Unversty Press. [12] Mahmood, N., Shrzad, S. and SabouhSaboun, M The Estmated Value of the Socal Anzal Lagoon Usng ontngent Valuaton. Journal of Ecology, 54, pp [13] McDonald, JF. and Mofftt, RA "The uses of Tobt analyss." The revew of economcs and statstcs, 62, 2, pp [14] Mtchell, R., ameron, R. and arson, T Usng surveys to value publc goods: the contngent valuaton method, Rff Press. [15] Najar, J., SabouhSaboun, M. and Salarpour, M Estmaton of Recreatonal Value hahnme Usng ontngent Valuaton. Journal of Agrcultural Economcs, 4, pp [16] Nakhaee, N., Mortazav, S. A., Amrnejad, H. and Navaz, M Estmaton of Protectve Value Noor Forested Park Usng ontngent Valuaton. Journal of Agrcultural Economcs, 1, pp [17] Reynsdottr, M., Song, H. and Agrusa, J wllngness to PayEntrance Fees to Natural Attractons: an IELANDIase Study. Toursm Management, 29, pp [18] Sattout, e., talhouk,s. and calgar, p Economc value of cedar relcs n Lebanon: an applcaton of contngent valuaton method for conservaton. Scence drect, 2, pp [19] Sour, A. and Ebrahm, M Natural Resources and Envronmental Economcs. Nooreelm, 228. [20] Tobn, J Estmaton of Relatonshps for Lmted Dependent Varables. Econometrca, 26, pp [21] Venkatachalam, l The ontngent Valuaton Method: A Revew. Envronmental Impact Assessment Revew, 24, pp [22] Wall, G Sustanable Toursm- Unsustanable Development Toursm Development on Growth: The hallenge of Sustanablty. Routledge, New York, pp Internatonal Journal of Plant, Anmal and Envronmental Scences Page: 373 Avalable onlne at