DETERMINANTS OF FOOD INSECURITY AMONG HOUSEHOLDS IN ADDIS ABABA CITY, ETHIOPIA

Transcription

1 Interdscplnary Descrpton of Complex Systems 10(2), , 2012 DETERMINANTS OF FOOD INSECURITY AMONG HOUSEHOLDS IN ADDIS ABABA CITY, ETHIOPIA Grma Gezmu Gebre* Aksum Unversty, Shre Campus Aksum, Ethopa Regular artcle Receved: 30. Aprl Accepted: 4. June ABSTRACT Even though there s long-held belef that urban populatons are better off, or even favoured than rural populatons, the recent food and fnancal crses have hghlghted the problem of urban food nsecurty n developng countres. Hence, the overall objectve of ths study was to examne the determnants of food nsecurty among urban households n Adds Ababa cty. To do so, both descrptve statstcs and econometrc analyss were employed. Descrptve statstcs used Foster, Greer and Thorbeck dstrbutonal measure of food nsecurty whle econometrc analyss used bnary logstc regresson model to analyze the data of a set of soco-economc varables as explanatory varables and food nsecurty as ndependent varable. The head count ndex shows that 58,16 % of the total households are below the food nsecurty lne. The food nsecurty gap and severty were 20 % and 9,4 %, respectvely. The result of the logstc regresson model estmate ndcates that out of the 10 factors ncluded, 6 were found to have a sgnfcant nfluence on the probablty of beng food nsecure at less than 10 % sgnfcance level. The varables consdered were household sze, age of household head, household head educaton, and access to credt, household asset possesson, and access to employment. Efforts should be made to mprove ncome earnng capacty of households, ther educaton level wth partcular focus on vocatonal tranng, reduce household sze wth a vew to reducng ther dependency rato and access of credt to the needy and traned people needs to be provded wth proper targetng crteron. KEY WORDS food, food nsecurty, probablty of beng food nsecure, severty, urban CLASSIFICATION JEL: D12, I39, J62, O15, Q53 PACS: dt, Y-, s *Correspondng author, : grsh1999@yahoo.com; ; *Aksum Unversty, Shre Campus, P.O.Box 314, Aksum, Ethopa

2 G. Gezmu Gebre INTRODUCTION Food s essental n human beng s lfe. Enough food n terms of quantty and qualty for all people s an mportant factor for a naton to contnue ts development. Lack of food n long terms wll lead to hunger and starvaton that can cause death. So that enough food s a necessty condton to be well nourshed 1. However, the world s home to over one bllon under nourshed people, over 98 % of whom lves n the developng world 2. The populaton of the developng world s becomng more urban, wth the urban populaton projected to double from 1,7 bllon n 1995 to 3,4 bllon n These countres are not capable enough to provde suffcent food for ther expandng urban populaton. Ths leads to ncreased food nsecurty and prevalence of poverty n the urban areas. Urban populatons n Afrca are growng rapdly, and nequalty s ncreasng. The major urban food problems of the 1970s and 1980s, food shortage and prce shocks, have apparently been largely resolved at least n the short to medum term. Because of ths, urban food securty havng long been defned as the ssue of feedng the ctes has dropped off the poltcal agenda of urban planners and urban managers; ndeed, specfcally urban food securty problems n Afrca receve lttle attenton from natonal food or nutrton polcy planners 4. As n many developng countres, food securty assessments n Ethopa have tradtonally focused on rural areas, where the majorty of the total populaton as well as the poorest and most food nsecure segments of the populaton lves 5. Nevertheless, the global ncrease of cereal and pulses prce and the global fnancal crss has put challenges on and ncreases food nsecurty n urban areas of the country. Ths further drven by unemployment, underemployment, lack of santaton, rsng cost of lvng, reduced nter-dependency among urban households, household composton, low asset ownershp, low level of educaton, hgh dependency on the nformal sector, HIV/AIDS (estmated at 7,7 % prevalence n urban areas) and ncreased populaton pressure due to natural growth and rural-urban mgraton 6. REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE Food securty s defned n dfferent ways by nternatonal organzatons and researchers wthout much change n basc concept. Accordng to FAO, food securty s defned as ensurng that all people at all tmes have both physcal and economc access to the food they need 7. World Bank defned t as access by all people at all tmes to suffcent food for an actve and healthy lfe 8. Von Braun et al defned food securty as access by all people at all tmes to the food requred for a healthy lfe 9. In 1996, the World Food Summt defnes food securty as Food securty exsts when all people at all tmes, have physcal and economc access to suffcent, safe and nutrtous food to meet ther detary needs and food preferences for an actve and healthy lfe. Lke as food securty, food nsecurty defnton s forwarded by dfferent researchers and nternatonal organzatons. Accordng to World Bank, food nsecurty can be defned as the lack of capablty to produce food and to provde access to all people at all tmes to enough food for an actve and healthy lfe 8. Hamlton defned food nsecurty as lmted or uncertan avalablty of nutrtonally adequate and safe foods or lmted or uncertan ablty to acqure acceptable foods n socally acceptable ways 10. In 1996, the World Food Summt explan that food nsecurty exsts when people lack secure access to suffcent amounts of safe and nutrtous food for normal growth and development and an actve and healthy lfe. Ths defnton of food securty s the most wdely used defntons of food 160

3 Determnants of food nsecurty among households n Adds Ababa cty, Ethopa securty. Ths defnton ntegrates stablty, access to food, avalablty of nutrtonally adequate food and the bologcal utlzaton of food. Therefore, for the purpose of ths study, the defnton put forward by World Food Summt (1996) was taken as a workng defnton of food securty and the household level s consdered as the key unt of food nsecurty analyss. Accordng to World Food Programme the man determnants of food nsecurty n urban context are: food avalablty, food supples n to market, food access, purchasng power and access to market and food utlzaton, health and morbdty status 6. Von Braun et al. denoted that food securty s composed of avalablty of food, access to food, and rsks related to ether avalablty or access 9. Varaton n natonal, regonal or local avalablty of food can contrbute to food nsecurty. Garrett and Ruel suggested that access that a household has to food depends on whether the household has enough ncome to purchase food at prevalng prces or has suffcent land and other resources to grow ts own food 11. The study conducted by Bonnard showed 12 that household ablty to acheve food securty n urban area s derved from the household s human, materal, and nsttutonal resource bases, whch are often collectvely referred n the lterature as food securty factors. These factors nclude the educatonal and employment status, household demographcs, urban agrculture, assets, savng, formal socal assstance or drect transfer, nformal socal networks, access to clean water and santaton and cost of lvng. The study of Urban Lvelhoods and Food and Nutrton Securty n Greater Accra, Ghana ndcated that household food avalablty s a functon of food prces, household demographcs and household tastes and preferences 3. M.S.Swamnathan Research Foundaton and the World Food Programme n study of food nsecurty Atlas of urban Inda 13, revealed that factors such as unemployment, llteracy, nfant mortalty rate, lack of tolet facltes and safe drnkng water, dscrmnaton at socal level and lttle poltcal attenton for urban areas determne food nsecurty n urban Inda. Mucavele suggested 14 that the man factors that affect food securty n urban Maputo, Mozambque, are poverty, low famly ncome, low avalablty of general almentaton at the famly level, floods, famly crss, hgh unemployment levels and low levels of schoolng and tranng and the absence of a socal securty system to allevate the urban shocks. Von Braun et al. denoted that 15 employment and wages, along wth prces and ncomes, play the central role n determnng the food securty status of urban households. The stuaton n Ethopa s not much dfferent from the condtons n other developng regons. For example, World Food Programme stated 6 that the common factors that cause household food-nsecurty n urban areas of the country are: household sze, age of household, sex of household head, martal status of household, educaton level of household, dependency rato, access to credt, ownershp of savng account, total ncome per adult equvalent, expendture level (food and non-food), asset possesson, access to socal servces, owner of home garden, access to subsdzed food, sources of food, avalablty of food commodtes, and supply of food commodtes. IMPORTANCE OF THE STUDY A study of determnants of urban household food nsecurty s vtal because t provdes wth nformaton that wll enable effectve measures to be undertaken so as to mprove food securty status and brng the success of food securty development programs. It wll also enable development practtoners and polcy makers to have better knowledge as to where and how to ntervene n urban areas to brng food securty or mnmze the severty of food nsecurty. Area specfc dentfcaton of determnants of the food nsecurty wll ease the mplementaton of dfferent development projects n the Adds Ababa cty. 161

4 G. Gezmu Gebre STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM Though Ethopa has abundant natural resources, most of ts socoeconomc ndcators are extremely low. In Ethopa food shortage has aggravated the already poor economy of the country. Both chronc and transtory problems of food nsecurty are wdespread and severe n both rural and urban areas of the country 16. However, a lot of studes conducted so far n the feld gve more emphass to the rural area of the country But such partal assessments do not verfy stuatons at grass root level and hde the true food nsecurty problem of the country. Furthermore such studes do not look the underlyng causes of food nsecurty of household at the urban settngs. The extent of food nsecurty problem dffers from place to place and n accordance to the socal poston and actual lfe condtons. So that research undertakng n area of food nsecurty at the Adds Ababa cty s essental snce the results may gve spot lght to development planners n order to combat ts problem at the urban level. OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY The overall objectve of the study was to examne the soco economc determnants of food nsecurty among urban households n Adds Ababa cty. The specfc objectves of the study were: to estmate the food nsecurty gap and ts severty among urban households, and to dentfy the determnants of food nsecurty among urban households. HYPOTHESES Households wth larger sze are more prone to food nsecurty. Households engaged n more ncome generatng actvtes are more lkely to experence food securty. Households wth access to credt servce are less lkely to face food nsecurty compared to those wth less access. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY DATA SOURCES AND SAMPLE SIZE The study used the 2006/07 Young Lves household survey conducted by Young Lves of the Ethopa. The survey gathered qualtatve and quanttatve data pertanng to socal, demographc and economc aspects of households. The method of data collecton used purposve and smple random samplng strateges. The selecton of the sentnel stes followed a purposve samplng strategy, whereas the household selecton wthn each sentnel ste was done usng smple random samplng. Ths s due to the research targeted the poor and food defcency areas of the cty. Accordngly, 423 households were covered n Young Lves household survey from Adds Ababa cty. Therefore, the present analyss based on 423 sample households randomly selected from Young Lves ste n the cty. METHOD OF DATA ANALYSIS The data collected were subjected to both descrptve statstcs and econometrcs analyss such as Foster, Greer and Thorbeck ndex of food nsecurty and bnary logt regresson. A separate food nsecurty lne was developed for area. To acheve ths, the cost of basc need method as proposed by Revalon and Bdan 22 was used. Ths s mostly done through dentfyng the food nsecure 50 % of the sample populaton as a reference group wth the assumpton that n study area the food nsecure part of socety s above 50 %. The food 162

5 Determnants of food nsecurty among households n Adds Ababa cty, Ethopa consumpton behavour of the reference group accesses to determne average quanttes n per adult equvalent of basc food tems that makeup the reference food basket. In ths case, the basket makes up of the mean consumpton levels (purchase, remttance and from ad) of basc food tems. The calore value of each food tems constructs from World Health Organzaton of the food nutrton table. The total calore obtaned from consumpton of ths basket of average quantty per adult by an ndvdual s: q K T *, (1) T T *, but T T *. Here T * s total calore obtaned by ndvdual adult from consumng the average quanttes, q s average quantty per adult of food tem consumed by ndvdual, K the calorc value of the respectve food tem consumed by ndvdual adult and T s recommended consumed calore per day per adult for Ethopa,.e kj = 2200 kcal. The average quantty per adult of each food tem scales up and down by a constant value T/T * so as to provde total of 9210 kj = 2200 kcal per adult per day before dong any actvtes. Then, multply each food tems after scalng up and down by the medan prce and sum up to get a food nsecurty lne. A household was then consdered food secure or nsecure f the daly recommended calore was equal or above and below the food nsecurty lne respectvely. The degree of food nsecurty was estmated usng the Foster, Greer and Thorbeck (FGT) equaton shown as: 1 q z y P, (2) N 1 z where α s the egree of food nsecurty wth values of 0, 1 and 2 for headcount, short-fall and severty of food nsecurty, respectvely. Furthermore, n (2) N s total number of sample households, q the number of food nsecure households, Z s the cutoff between food securty and nsecurty and y s the measure of per adult equvalent food calore ntake of the th household. To examne the effect of demographc and soco economc characterstcs on food nsecurty and the probablty of household beng food nsecure, data were collected on varables such as household sze, household head age, sex, educaton, dependency rato, access to varous servces, access to credt servce, access to employment, asset possesson and food ad. On the assumpton that the probablty of a household beng food nsecure s determned by underlyng response varable that capture the true economc status of the household, the underlyng response varable n the case of bnary status was defned by bnary logt regresson relaton. Followng Gujarat 23 and Green 24, the functonal form of logt model s specfed as follows: 1 P( Y 1), (3) ( 0 X ) 1 e For smplcty, we wrte (3) as 1 P( Y 1), (4) 1 e where: P(Y = 1) s the probablty that a household beng food nsecure, Z s the functon of a vector of n explanatory varables). Equaton (4) s the cumulatve dstrbuton functon. If P(Y = 1) s the probablty of beng food nsecure, then 1 P(Y = 1) represents the probablty of beng food secured and s expressed as: thus we can wrte Z 1 1 P( Y 1), (5) Z 1 e 163

6 G. Gezmu Gebre P( Y 1) Z e. (6) 1 P( Y 1) Equaton (6) smply s the odds rato, the rato of the probablty that a household wll be food nsecure to the probablty that t wll be food secured. Takng the natural log of equaton (6), we obtan P( Y 1) L ln Z, (7) 1 P( Y 1) where L s the natural logarthm of the odds rato whch s not only lnear n the explanatory varables but n the parameters also. Thus ntroducng the stochastc error term u the logt model can be wrtten as Z L P( Y 1) ln Z, (8) 1 P( Y 1) 0 1X1 2X 2... n X n u, (9) where β 0 s an ntercept and β 1, β 2, β n are slopes of the equaton n the model, and X s vector of relevant household characterstcs. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS DESCRIPTIVE RESULTS Ths secton reports the descrptve results of the study. Based on the food nsecurty threshold pont as a benchmark, 246 sample households (58,16 %) were found to be unable to meet ther mnmum subsstence requrement and 177 households (41,84 %) were found to meet ther mnmum subsstence requre. The FGT ndces namely head count rato, short-fall and severty of food nsecurty are used to show how much the magntude of food nsecurty looks lke n the study area. Table 1. FGT result of total food nsecurty stuaton n the study area. Total Food Insecurty Varable Standard Lower and upper bounds of Index error 95 % confdence nterval Head count rato 0,58 0,024 0,532 0,628 Short-fall 0,20 0,012 0,176 0,224 Food nsecurty severty 0,094 0,007 0,080 0,108 Table 1 shows that the headcount rato, short-fall and severty of food nsecurty were 58 %, 20 % and 9,4 %, respectvely. Ths mples 58 % of the sampled households cannot meet the energy requrement recommended for subsstence. Each food nsecure household needs 20 % of the daly calorc requrement to brng them up to the recommended daly calorc requrement level besdes ther per capta ncome and the relatve defcency among food nsecure households s 9,4 %. The estmated value of head count, food nsecurty gap (short fall) and severty of food nsecurty by soco-economc characterstcs of household has been analyzed as follows: Table 2 shows that food nsecurty was more severe n the large sze household wth food nsecurty, headcount ndex, short-fall ndex and severty as 80,71 %, 32,6 % and 16,27 %, respectvely. Ths fact ndcates that food nsecurty worsen as household sze ncreased. Ths ncrease ncdence of food nsecurty wth ncrease n famly sze confrms the pror hypothess 164

7 Determnants of food nsecurty among households n Adds Ababa cty, Ethopa Table 2. Estmated ndces of food nsecurty by soco economc characterstcs of household. Data were computed from conducted survey s results. Varable Head count ndex Short-fall ndex Severty ndex Famly sze Small (2-4) 0,3132 0,0708 0,0264 Medum (5-7) 0,5350 0,1701 0,0751 Large ( 8) 0,8071 0,3260 0,1627 HH head age 25 0,5000 0,1551 0, ,4955 0,1628 0, ,6839 0,2496 0,1175 HH head sex Male 0,5645 0,2008 0,0937 Female 0,6176 0,2052 0,0964 HH head Educaton Lterate 0,5662 0,1968 0,0918 Illterate 0,7368 0,2572 0,1222 Access to employment Access to employment 0,5371 0,1868 0,0871 Wthout access to employment 0,6340 0,2205 0,1034 Access to Credt Credt access 0,5528 0,1998 0,0082 Wthout credt access 0,5933 0,2081 0,0924 of ths study. Food nsecurty was hgh for age group of older than 45 years wth food nsecurty headcount ndex, short-fall ndex and severty of 68,39 %, 24,96 % and 11,75 %, respectvely. Ths mples that ncdence of food nsecurty ncreased wth age of household head n the study area and/or the elder head households lve great deprvaton than younger head households. Food nsecurty was worse n female headed household wth food nsecurty headcount ndex, short-fall ndex and severty of 61,76 %, 20,52 % and 9,64 %, respectvely, than the male counterpart of 56,45 %, 20,8 % and 9,37 %. Ths mples that males are to some extent more engaged n ncome generatng actvtes than females n the study area. The food nsecurty was concentrated n the group wth llterate havng an estmated headcount rato, short-fall ndex and severty of 73,68 %, 25,72 % and 12,22 %, respectvely. Ths analyss mples that llterate households are more food nsecure than lterate ones snce lterate households are dversfyng as well as ncreasng ther means of ncome n order to drag out of food nsecurty stuaton and lead qualty lfe. Hgh ndces of food nsecurty were recorded for households wth access to employment than no access to an employment. The estmated food nsecurty headcount rato, short-fall and severty for households wthout access to employment were 63,4 %, 22,0 % and 10,3 %, respectvely. The food nsecurty was more severe n the group wth no access to credt servce havng an estmated headcount rato, short-fall ndex and severty of 59,33 %, 20,8 % and 9,2 %, respectvely. Ths ndcates that households wth access to credt are less food nsecure than no access ones. 165

8 G. Gezmu Gebre ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS The result of the logstc regresson model estmate revealed that out of the 10 factors, 6 varables were found to have a sgnfcant nfluence on the probablty of beng food nsecure. These varables nclude household sze, household head age, household head educaton, asset possesson, access to credt servce and access to employment. That means the coeffcents of famly sze and asset possesson were statstcally sgnfcant at 1 percent probablty level of sgnfcance where as age of household head, access to credt servce and access to employment were statstcally sgnfcant at 5 % probablty level of sgnfcance. Furthermore, the coeffcent of household head educaton was sgnfcant at 10 % probablty level. The coeffcents of 4 explanatory varables, namely sex of the household head, dependency rato, food ad and access to varous servces, were not statstcally dfferent from zero at the conventonal levels of sgnfcance. The code, type, varable descrpton and result obtaned from the bnary logt model are presented n Tables 3 and 4, respectvely. Table 3. Descrpton of varables ncluded n the model estmaton. Code Type Descrpton Szehh Contnuous Household sze n number Headage Contnuous Age of household n year Headsex Dummy 1 f household head s male,0 otherwse Dprato Contnuous Dependency rato Foodad Contnuous Food ad HeadEduc Dummy 1 f household head s lterate, 0 otherwse Credt Dummy 1 f household got credt, 0 otherwse Asset Contnuous Asset possesson Acemply Dummy 1 f household has access to employment, 0 otherwse Accvar Dummy 1 f household has access to varous servce, 0 otherwse In lght of the above summarzed model results possble explanaton for each sgnfcant ndependent varable are gven consecutvely as follows: Famly sze: As pnponted n varous lteratures, famly sze s dentfed as one of the mportant demographc factors that affect household food nsecurty status. In lght of ths t was hypotheszed that famly sze has postve relatonshp wth food nsecurty status of a household, n such a way that households wth large famly sze have better chance of beng food nsecure than those wth small numbers. In ths study, the famly sze was found to be hghly sgnfcant to determne household food nsecurty. The coeffcent for famly sze was found to be postvely related wth food nsecurty and statstcally sgnfcant at 1 percent probablty level. Ths ndcates that larger household sze tends to be food nsecure compared to smaller famly sze n the study area. Ths fully agrees wth pror expectaton. The margnal effect of famly sze revealed that the probablty of beng food nsecure wll ncrease by approxmately 8,36 % wth one addtonal famly member n adult equvalent. Ths result s n conformty wth the fndngs of Frehwot 18 and Abebaw 19. Age of household head: Ths varable affects food nsecurty status postvely and sgnfcantly at 5 % probablty level n the study area. The postve relatonshp mples that older age household heads have better chance to be food nsecure than younger ones. Ths s possble because older household heads are less productve and they lead ther lfe by remttance and gfts. They could not partcpate n other ncome generatng actvtes. On the other hand, older households have large number of famles and ther resources were dstrbuted among ther members. The margnal effect of age of household head ndcates that the probablty of beng food nsecure wll ncrease by approxmately 0,6 % when age of the household ncreases by one year. Ths result confrms wth other fndngs 18,

9 Determnants of food nsecurty among households n Adds Ababa cty, Ethopa Table 4. Bnary logt result for determnants of food nsecurty. Data are output of the model. For these data, pseudo R 2 = 0,3606 and count R 2 = 95,21 what mples predcton success. Number of observatons s 423, log pseudo lkelhood 226,7324, Wald 2 (10) = 69,49 and Prob > 2 = 0,0000. Varables Coeffcent Stand. Error p-value Margnal effect (dy/dx) Szehh 0, , ,000 *** 0, Headage 0, , ,012 ** 0, Headsex 0, , ,738 0, Deprato 0, , ,147 0, Foodad 0, , ,441 0, HeadEduc 0, , ,083 * 0, Credt 1, , ,022 ** 0, Asset 0, , ,000 *** 0, Acemply 0, , ,023 ** 0, Accvarocons 0, , dy/dx s for dscrete change of dummy varable. * Sgnfcant at 10 % level. ** Sgnfcant at the 5 % level. *** Sgnfcant at the 1 % level. 0, , ,371 0,135 0, Educaton level of household head: Ths varable affects food nsecurty stuaton negatvely and sgnfcantly at 10 % probablty level. The negatve relatonshp ndcates that lterate households are less food nsecure than llterate households. The possble explanaton s that household head educaton largely contrbuted on workng effcency, competency, dversfy ncome, adoptng technologes and becomng vsonary n creatng conducve envronment to educate dependants wth long term target to ensure better lvng condton than llterate ones. Ths s due to educated household head plays a sgnfcant role n shapng household members. Thus, beng lterate reduces the chance of becomng food nsecure n the sample households. The margnal effect of the varable reveals that for lterate households the probablty of beng food nsecure decreased by 15,55 %. The fndng of ths study was found consstent wth what had been found by Ojogho 25 and Aschalew 26. Credt servce: The sgn of the coeffcent of ths varable showed a negatve relatonshp wth food nsecurty and s sgnfcant at 5 % probablty level. The negatve relatonshp mples that households wth access to credt servce have less chance to be food nsecure than wthout access ones. Ths result s fully n conformty wth the pror expectaton. Ths s due to the fact that credt gves the household an opportunty to be nvolved n ncome generatng actvtes so that derved revenue ncreases fnancal capacty and purchasng power of the household to escape from rsk of food nsecurty. Moreover, t helps to smooth consumpton when household face wth temporary food problem. The margnal effect of the varable shows that for households wth access to credt the probablty of food nsecure decrease by 22,51 %. Ths result confrms wth the fndngs of others 19, 20, 27. Asset possesson: Ownershp of consumer durable and productve asset affects food nsecurty status negatvely and sgnfcantly at 1 % probablty level n the study area. The negatve relatonshp may ndcate that n the study area, households who own productve assets lke machnery, transportaton and etc are less food nsecure. Ths result fully agrees wth pror expectaton. The margnal effect of asset possesson mples that the probablty of beng food nsecure decrease by approxmately 0,01 % as productve asset ncrease by one unt. 167

10 G. Gezmu Gebre Access to employment: Ths varable s sgnfcant at 5 % probablty level. It has a negatve relatonshp wth food nsecurty n the study area. The negatve relaton ndcates that households who have access to employment are less lkely food nsecure than no access one. Access to employment opportuntes help to dversfy and ncrease amount of ncome receved by households. The fluctuaton n access to employment determnes food nsecurty of urban households. Margnal effect shows that for households wth access to employment the probablty of beng food nsecurty decrease by 13 %. Ths result confrms the fndng of Maxwell 28. CONCLUSIONS The foregong analyss attempted to analyze the determnants of urban household food nsecurty n Adds Ababa cty. Frst, an attempt has been made to descrbe the socoeconomc characterstcs of the food nsecure and food secure sample household groups by usng descrptve statstcs. Second, an attempt has been made to dentfy factors that determne the urban household food nsecurty usng bnary logt model of regresson. Accordngly, n the study area the proporton of people who are unable to fulfll ther food energy requrement n the year 2006/07 s 58 %. The percentage of food consumpton needed to brng the entre food nsecure populaton to the food poverty lne s 20 percent wth 95 % confdence nterval of 17,65 % to 22 %. Whle the percentage of relatve defcency among food nsecure populaton s 9,4 % wth 95 confdence nterval of 8 % to 10 %. The result of the logstc regresson model ndcated that sx out of ten varables namely household sze, age of household head, household head educaton, asset possesson, access to credt servce, and access to employment were found to be statstcally sgnfcant as determnants of household food nsecurty n the study area. Household sze and asset possesson were sgnfcant at less than one percent probablty level whle access to credt servce, age of household head and access to employment were sgnfcant at less than 5 % probablty level. In addton, the household head educaton was sgnfcant at 10 % probablty level. Household sze and age of household head were found to be postvely related wth probablty of beng food nsecure where as access to credt servce, asset possesson, household head educaton and access to employment were negatvely related wth probablty of beng food nsecure. RECOMMENDATIONS The possble areas of nterventon that emanate from the results of the research study are presented as follows: As household sze and food nsecurty are postvely related serous attenton has to be gven to lmt the ncreasng populaton n the study area. Ths can be acheved by creatng suffcent awareness to effectve famly plannng n the urban households. Further, household heads are advsed to reduce the sze of ther household and ther dependency rato. Age has postve mpact on food nsecurty. Ths means older households are more lkely to be food nsecure. Therefore, capacty buldng for old household heads should be gven. The effect of educaton on household food nsecurty confrms the sgnfcant role of the varable n consderaton for betterment of lvng condton. The more household head educated, the hgher wll be the probablty of educatng famly member and famlar wth modern technology, whch the twenty frst century so badly demands. So, strengthenng both formal and nformal educaton and vocatonal or skll tranng should be promoted to reduce food nsecurty n the study area. Productve assets are hghly bndng resource n the study area and negatvely related wth food nsecurty. Therefore; development partner support ought to scale up on exstng urban cash-based socal protecton programs to ensure buldng up of assets for the asset poor households. Access to credt can create an opportunty to be nvolved n economc actvty that generates revenue to households. Development partners operatng n the study area should mplement provson of 168

11 Determnants of food nsecurty among households n Adds Ababa cty, Ethopa credt to elgble households usng targetng crteron that reflects actual characterstcs of food nsecure households. The other pressng ssue related to provson of credt s the requrement of collateral and group lendng procedure, whch dscourages so many households. People are afrad of holdng accountablty for others so ndvdual lendng should be consdered as another opton and collateral requrement should be avoded f there s a need to lft food nsecure households from ther current stuaton. Borrowers should be encouraged to save or contrbute as matchng fund to reach the lmted resources over large number of needy people. The access to employment opportunty negatvely related wth food nsecurty n the study area. Access to job helps urban households to dversfy ther ncome whch n turn allevates the food defcency among poor households. Therefore; both government and cvl socety organzatons have roles to play n addressng these ssues. The polcy ntatves that wll do most to enhance the potental for self-employment are basc condton n reducng food nsecurty n the cty. Here agan, certan precondtons apply. Ths study has attempted to come up wth the result of the analyss wth defned scope however a lot remaned to be unanswered. To provde basc nformaton on the determnants of urban food nsecurty, the socal, poltcal, natural and envronmental dmensons, role of urban agrculture n urban food nsecurty, descrptve data on purchasng patterns of food nsecure, specfc characterstcs that make urban poor more vulnerable to food nsecurty demands future researchers attenton. APPENDIX Table A1. Nutrtonal Based Equvalence Scales. Calculated from data of the World Health Organzaton (1985) by Stefen Dercon, cted n 29. Data n cells are n klocalores, wth 1 klocalore 4,2 kj. Age Men Women 0-1 0,33 0, ,46 0, ,54 0, ,62 0, ,74 0, ,84 0, ,88 0, ,96 0, ,06 0, ,14 0, ,04 0, ,00 0, ,84 0,74 169

12 G. Gezmu Gebre Table A2. Klocalore converson for calculatng food nsecurty lne. No. Food tem Energetc Medan prce Monthly energetc value per value, kcal of food tems adult equvalent per kg, kcal 1 Cereals 341 4,5 8, Pulse , Pasta/bread 351 3,5 7, Tuber , Ol , Vegetables , Salt 70 1,3 1, Sugar , Coffee , Table A3. Bnary logt out put logstc regresson. Number of obs = 423 Log pseudolkelhood = 226,324 Wald ch2(11) = 69,49 Pseudo R2 = 0,3606 Prob > ch2 = Robust foodlne Coef. Std. Err. Z P > z [95 % Conf. Interval] szehh headage headsex deprato foodad headeduc credt Asset accemply accvaro _cons Table 4. Margnal effects after logt. y = Pr(foodlne) (predct) = varable dy/dx Std. Err. z P > z [ 95% C.I. ] X Szehh headage headsex* deprato foodad headeduc credt* Asset accemply* accvaro* * dy/dx s for dscrete change of dummy varable from 0 to 1 170

13 Determnants of food nsecurty among households n Adds Ababa cty, Ethopa ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The author thanks the Young Lves of Ethopa that allowed the use of the 2006/07 round two survey data. The author extends the specal grattude to EDRI (Ethopan Development Research Insttute) and ESSP (Ethopan Strategy Support Programe)/IFPRI (Internatonal Food Polcy Research Insttute) for the fnancal support n ths endeavor. Wthout ther fnancal support ths study could not have reached ths level. REFERENCES [1] Sla, O. and Pellokla, R.: Soco-Economc Indcators Affectng food securty. Unversty of Phlppnes at Los Banos, 2007, [2] FAO: The State of Food Insecurty n the World. FAO, Rome, 2008, [3] Maxwell, D. et al.: Urban Lvelhood and Food and Nutrton Securty n Greater Accra, Ghana. Research Report No IFPRI, Washngton, D.C., 2000, [4] Maxwell, D.: The Poltcal Economy of Urban food securty n Sub-Saharan Afrca. World Development 27(11), , 1998, [5] Mekonnen, T.: Determnants and Dynamcs of Urban Poverty Ethopa. Ethopan, Journal of Economcs 8(1), Adds Ababa, 2000, [6] World Food Programme: Summary of Food Securty and Vulnerablty n Selected Urban Centers of Ethopa. UNICEF, Adds Ababa, 2009, [7] Commodtes and Trade Dvson: Trade Reforms and Food Securty. FAO, Rome, 2003, ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/005/y4671e/y4671e00.pdf, [8] World Bank: Poverty and Hunger: Issues and Optons for Food Securty n Developng Countres. A World Bank Polcy Study. Washngton, D.C., 1986, _ /Rendered/PDF/mult_page.pdf, [9] von Braun, J.; Bous, H.; Kumar, S. and Pandya-Lorch, R.: Improvng Food Securty of the Poor: Concept, Polcy and Programmes. Internatonal Food Polcy Research Insttute, Washngton, D.C., 1992, [10] Bckel, G. et al.: Gude to Measurng Household Food Securty. Seres Measurng Food Securty n the Unted States: Reports of the Federal Interagency Food Securty Measurement Project No. 6. Unted States Department of Agrculture, 2000, [11] Garrett, J.L. and Ruel, M.T.: Are Determnants of Rural and Urban Food Securty and Nutrtonal Status Dfferent? Some Insght from Mozambque. World Development 27(11) , 1999, [12] Bonnard, P.: Assessng Urban Food Securty: Adjustng the FEWS Rural Vulnerablty Assessment Framework to Urban Envronment. USAID, Washngton, D.C., 2000, [13] M.S.Swamnathan Research Foundaton and the World Food Programme: The food nsecurty atlas of urban Inda. M.S.Swamnathan Research Foundaton and the World Food Programme, p.212, 2002, 171

14 G. Gezmu Gebre [14] Mucavele, F.G.: A Vulnerablty and Food Securty Study of Urban Maputo. Mozambque. FANRPAN, Harare, 2001, [15] von Braun, J.; McComb, J.; Fred-Mensah, B.K. and Pandya-Lorch, R.: Urban Food Insecurty and Malnutrton n Developng Countres. Trends, Polces and Research Implcatons. Internatonal Food Polcy Research Insttute, Washngton, D.C., 1993, [16] Federal Democratc Republc of Ethopa: Food Securty Strategy. Federal Democratc Republc of Ethopa, Adds Ababa, 2002, [17] Eden, M.; Ngatu, R. and Ansha, Y.: The Levels, Determnants and Copng Mechansms of Food Insecure Households n Southern Ethopa Case study of Sdama, Wolata and Guraghe Zones. DCG Report No. 55, 2009, [18] Frehwot, F.: Food Insecurty and Its Determnants n Rural Households n Amhara Regon. School of Graduate studes, Faculty of Busness and Economcs, Department of Economcs, Adds Ababa Unversty, 2007, [19] Abebaw, S.: Dmensons and Determnants of Food Securty among Rural Households n Dre Dawa, Eastern Ethopa. M.Sc. Thess. School of Graduate Studes of Alemaya Unversty, 2003, [20] Tesfaye, K.: Household food nsecurty n Dodota-Sre dstrckt, Ars zone: copng strateges and polcy optons. M.Sc. Thess. School of Graduate Studes of Alemaya Unversty, 2005, [21] Ssay, A. and Tesfaye, Z.: Rural Poverty Food Insecurty and Envronmental Degradaton In Ethopa: A case Study From south central Ethopa. Asefa,%20Ssay_%20Zegeye,%20Tesfaye.pdf, [22] Ravallon, M. and Bdan, B.: How Robust s a Poverty Profle? World Bank Economc Revew 8(1), , 1994, [23] Gujrat, D.N.: Basc Econometrcs. 3 rd ed. McGraw-Hll, New York, 1995, [24] Greene, W.H.: Econometrc Analyss. 5 th ed. Prentce Hall, New York, pp , 2003, [25] Ojogho, O.: Determnants of Food Insecurty among Arable Farmers n Edo State, Ngera. Agrcultural Journal 5(3), , 2010, [26] Aschalew, F.: Determnants and Dmensons of Household Food Insecurty n Dre Dawa Cty, Ethopa. M.Sc. Thess. School of Graduate Studes of Alemaya Unversty, 2006, [27] Antgen, B.: Determnants of Food Securty n Amahara Regon: Case of Sekota Woreda. M.Sc. Thess. Mekelle Unversty, 2010, [28] Maxwell, D.: Urban Food Securty n Sub-Saharan Afrca. [29] Mnstry of Fnance and Economc Development: Ethopa: Sustanable Development and Poverty Reducton Program. Mnstry of Fnance and Economc Development Adds Ababa, 2002, 172

15 Determnants of food nsecurty among households n Adds Ababa cty, Ethopa ODREDNICE NESIGURNOSTI U OPSRKBI HRANOM KUĆANSTAVA ADIS ABEBE 1 Sveučlšte Aksum, kampus Shre G. Gezmu Gebre 1 Aksum, Etopja SAŽETAK Unatoč dugogodšnjem vjerovanju kako urbana populacja žv bolje favorzranje od ruralne populacje, nedavna krza hrane fnancjska krza staknule su problem nesgurnost opskrbe hranom urbane populacje zemelja u razvoju. Zbog toga je opć clja ovog rada sptvanje odrednca nesgurnost opskrbe hranom urbanh kućanstava u Ads Abeb. Prtom su prmjenjene deskrptvna ekonometrjska analza. Deskrptvna statstka korst dstrbutvnu mjeru nesgurnost u opskrb hranom kako su je uvel Foster, Greer Thorbeck. Ekonometrjska analza korst bnarn model logstčke regresje za analzu podataka skupa soco-ekonomskh varjabl kao eksplanatornh varjabl, a nesgurnost u opskrb hranom kao neovsnu varjablu. Indeks broja glava pokazuje kako je 58,16 % svh kućanstava spod lnje nesgurnost opskrbe hranom. Procjep nesgurnost opskrbe hranom ozbljnost znose 20 %, odnosno 9,4 %. Rezultat procjene pomoću modela logstčke regresje pokazuju kako od 10 uključenh varjabl njh 6 značajno utječe na nesgurnost u opskrb hranom na razn značajnost od 10 %. Razmatrane varjable su velčna kućanstva, dob glave obtelj, obrazovanje glave obtelj, dostupnost kredta, vlasnštvo dostupnost obrazovanju. Potrebno je unaprjedt mogućnost prhodovanja kućanstava, obrazovnu strukturu s naglaskom na strukovnom obrazovanju, smanjt velčnu kućanstava rad smanjvanja njhove ovsnost. Nadalje, potrebno je unaprjedt dostupnost kredta, a osposobljenm ljudma omogućt prmjerene cljeve. KLJUČNE RIJEČI hrana, nesgurnost opskrbe hranom, vjerojatnost nesgurnost opskrbe hranom, ozbljnost, urbano 173