HAZARD DESCRIPTION... 1 LOCATION AND HISTORICAL...

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1 W I L D F I R E HAZARD DESCRIPTION... 1 LOCATION AND HISTORICAL... 1 SIGNIFICANT PAST EVENTS... 1 EXTENT... 2 PREVIOUS OCCURRENCES... 6 PROBABILITY OF FUTURE EVENTS... 7 VULNERABILITY AND IMPACT... 7 HAZARD DESCRIPTION A wildfire can rapidly spread out of control and occurs most often in the summer, when the brush is dry and flames can move unchecked through a highly vegetative area. The fire often begins unnoticed and spreads quickly, lighting brush, trees and homes. It may be started by a campfire that was not doused properly, a tossed cigarette, burning debris, lightning or arson. Wildfires can start as a slow burning along the forest floor, killing and damaging trees. They often spread more rapidly as they reach the tops of trees, with wind carrying the flames from tree to tree. Usually, dense smoke is the first indication of a fire. New York has seen a significant increase in the number of wildfires in the past 30 years, which included wildland, interface or intermix fires. Wildland fires are fueled almost exclusively by natural vegetation while interface or intermix fires are urban/wildland fires in which vegetation and the built-environment provide the fuel. LOCATION AND HISTORICAL Wildfires can be a potentially damaging outgrowth of drought. While they are not confined to any specific geographic location, and can vary greatly in terms of size, location, intensity and duration; they are most likely to occur in open grasslands. The threat to people and property is greater in the fringe areas, where developed areas meet open grass lands. SIGNIFICANT PAST EVENTS 9 April 2008 Lockwood Hill Fire A tree limb fell onto a power line causing hot embers to fall and ignite the grass. One home was threatened though no structures were lost or persons injured, 1.5 acres were burned. S T R A T E G I E S T O M I T I G A T E T H E I M P A C T S O F N A T U R A L D I S A S T E R S O N H U M A N L I F E A N D P R O P E R T Y

2 9 April 2005 Milford Fire A farmer was driving his tractor when he turned around and saw that a fire started in the grass behind him. No structures were threatened or lost but 7 acres were burned before the fire was brought under control. 5 September 2005 Richardson Hill Fire A property owner lost control of a debris fire and approximately one acre was burned. The property owner was ticketed for unattended fire and endangering the property of another. No structures were lost or injuries associated with the debris fire. EXTENT Fire risk is measured in terms of magnitude and intensity using the Fire Danger Rating, a mathematical system for relating current and recent weather conditions to potential or expected fire behavior. Fire Danger Rating level is measured in terms of current and antecedent weather, fuel types, and both live and dead fuel moisture. The Fire Danger Rating and Color Code (Table 11-1), is a method of normalizing rating classes across different fuel models, indexes, and monitoring station locations. It is based on the primary fuel model cataloged for the station, the fire danger index selected to reflect staffing levels, and climatological class breakpoints. Table Fire Danger Rating and Color Code FIRE DANGER RATING AND COLOR CODE Low (L) (Dark Green) Moderate (M) (Light Green or Blue) High (H) (Yellow) DESCRIPTION Fuels do not ignite readily from small firebrands although a more intense heat source, such as lightning, may start fires in duff or punky wood. Fires in open cured grasslands may burn freely a few hours after rain, but woods fires spread slowly by creeping or smoldering, and burn in irregular fingers. There is little danger of spotting. Fires can start from most accidental causes but, with the exception of lightning fires in some areas, the number of starts is generally low. Fires in open cured grasslands will burn briskly and spread rapidly on windy days. Timber fires spread slowly to moderately fast. The average fire is of moderate intensity, although heavy concentrations of fuel, especially draped fuel, may burn hot. Short-distance spotting may occur, but is not persistent. Fires are not likely to become serious and control is relatively easy. All fine dead fuels ignite readily and fires start easily from most causes. Unattended brush and campfires are likely to escape. Fires spread rapidly and short-distance spotting is common. High-intensity burning may develop on slopes or in concentrations of fine fuels. Fires may become serious and their control difficult unless they are attacked successfully while small. Page 2 Otsego County Hazard Mitigation Plan Update

3 Very High (VH) (Orange) Extreme (E) (Red) Red Flag Fires start easily from all causes and, immediately after ignition, spread rapidly and increase quickly in intensity. Spot fires are a constant danger. Fires burning in light fuels may quickly develop high intensity characteristics such as long-distance spotting and fire whirlwinds when they burn into heavier fuels. Fires start quickly, spread furiously, and burn intensely. All fires are potentially serious. Development into high intensity burning will usually be faster and occur from smaller fires than in the very high fire danger class. Direct attack is rarely possible and may be dangerous except immediately after ignition. Fires that develop headway in heavy slash or in conifer stands may be unmanageable while the extreme burning condition lasts. Under these conditions the only effective and safe control action is on the flanks until the weather changes or the fuel supply lessens. A short-term, temporary warning, indicating the presence of a dangerous combination of temperature, wind, relative humidity, fuel or drought conditions which can contribute to new fires or rapid spread of existing fires. A Red Flag Warning can be issued at any Fire Danger level. The New York State Forest Rangers utilizes a Remote Automatic Weather Station (RAWS) Network. The NYS Forest Ranger RAWS Network is comprised of 17 interagency, remote, automatic fire weather stations (Sherbune Station located in Chenango County is the closest station located to Otsego County). A Fire Danger Rating and Color Code is determined for each Fire Danger Rating Area using the data collected at the weather station(s) located within the particular or adjoining area. The NYS Forest Rangers have divided the state into ten different Fire Danger Rating Areas. The main criteria used to develop the boundaries of these areas are: vegetation, fire climate, and topography (Figure 11-1). NWS fire weather zones, political boundaries, fire occurrences history, and other influences also aid in defining these areas. Otsego County is located in the Leather Stocking FDRA. Otsego County Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Page 3

4 Figure New York State Fire Danger Rating Areas 1 Daily Observed Fire Danger Map (Figure 11-2) and Visual Greenness Map (Figure 11-3) are provided by the United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service. 1 Otsego County approximately located with the black circle. Page 4 Otsego County Hazard Mitigation Plan Update

5 Figure Observed Fire Danger Map Otsego County Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Page 5

6 Figure Visual Greenness PREVIOUS OCCURRENCES From 1975 to 2012, the New York Forest Rangers have maintained a database of wildfire events. In this period, a total of 454 wildfire events were reported to have burned within Otsego County. The map below shows approximate locations of wildfires from 2006 to 2012, which can be grass or brushfires of any size (Figure 11-4). Page 6 Otsego County Hazard Mitigation Plan Update

7 Figure Known Historical Fire Events for Otsego County 2 PROBABILITY OF FUTURE EVENTS In general, wildfires can occur at any time following the end of the snow peak until leaf out in the end of August, but a dry spring or summer would produce more favorable conditions for a large wildfire to occur. As the county and cities move into wildland, the potential area of occurrence of wildfire increases. With 454 events in the past 37 years, an event within the County of Otsego is highly likely, meaning an event is probable within the next year. VULNERABILITY AND IMPACT Periods of drought, dry conditions, high temperatures, and low humidity set the stage for wildfires. Areas along railroads and people whose homes are in rural woodland settings have an increased risk of being affected by wildfire. The heavily populated, urban areas of the County are not likely to experience large, sweeping fires; farmland and wooded areas are vulnerable. Unoccupied buildings and open spaces that have not been maintained have the greatest vulnerability to wildfire. 2 Source: NYS Department of Environmental Conservation NYS Forest Rangers Otsego County Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Page 7

8 Within Otsego County, 454 fire events were reported from 1975 to August The overall level of concern for wildfires is located mostly along the perimeter of towns and cities where wildland and urban areas interface. The severity of impact of major wildfire events can be substantial. Such events can cause multiple deaths, completely shut down facilities for thirty days or more, and cause more than fifty percent of affected properties to be destroyed or suffer major damage. However, not having historic data to base a statement of potential impact on, it can only be said that the impact for the County is limited, meaning that less than 10 percent of infrastructure may be damaged. Approximate annual losses are negligible with only $6,150 in losses reported over the 37 year period and only 1 structure threatened. No injuries or fatalities reported. Page 8 Otsego County Hazard Mitigation Plan Update