Opening Remarks. Tony Simons, ICRAF

Transcription

1 Opening Remarks Tony Simons, ICRAF

2 REDD+ plus what? People? Water? Biodiversity? Landscape?

3 The Challenges of REDD 1. Market alone won t solve deforestation problem 2. Carbon only part of picture (water, habitat, biodiversity, services) 3. MRV needs to be independent of government 4. Handling cross-sectoral/ministerial issues 5. Controversy over rights to pollute, displacement of emissions 6. Opportunism of carbon cowboys 7. Definition and inclusion problems of tree, forest 8. Asynchronous forest laws, agrarian reform, land tenure 9. Land-use/land-cover conundrum 10. Bundling protection forest, production forest, conversion forest, (non-forest) 11. REDD is only partial accounting 12. Low capacity/compliance of fpic, indigenous rights, social safeguards 13. Baselines versus reference levels 14. Emissions embedded in trade 15. Stock:emission rate ratios are lowering (time pressure to act) 16. All actors believe most finance should go to them

4 RED = Reducing emissions from (gross) deforestation: only changes from forest to non-forest land cover types are included, and details very much depend on the operational definition of forest REDD = idem, + (forest) degradation, or the shifts to lower C-stock densities within the forest; details very much depend on the operational definition of forest REDD + = idem, + restocking within and towards forest ; in some versions RED + will also include peatlands, regardless of their forest status ; details still depend on the operational definition of forest REDD ++ = REALU = idem, + all transitions in land cover that affect C storage, whether peatland or mineral soil, trees-outside-forest, agroforest, plantations or natural forest. It does not depend on the operational definition of forest

5 Guiding Paradigms

6 Spatial analysis: classification of 450 districts in Indonesia according to 7 tree cover transition stages (Dewi et al., in prep.)

7 Indonesia s forest loss by land-use category Forest Use Class % area Loss during t C ha-1 yr-1 % yr-1 % total emissions Protected Forest 26.7% % 20% Production Forest 31.8% % 39% Convertible 9.6% % 11% Non-forest 31.9% % 30% TOTAL (Source

8 Reducing Emissions from All Land Uses: The case for a whole landscape approach A whole-landscape approach to reducing emissions and managing carbon stocks can help address the drivers of deforestation, reduce problems like leakage, and enhance participation of rural communities and developing countries in REDD deals.

9 Overview of the forest carbon market

10 Overview of the forest carbon market

11 Climate Smart Agriculture - Increase sustainable productivity - Strengthen farmers resilience (adaptation) - Reduce agriculture GHG emissions - Increase Carbon sequestration

12 Climate Smart Agriculture Metrics Food Security (Prodn & Income) Prodn (t) Income ($) CO2 (t) CH4 (kg) NO2 (kg) Carbon (t) *** ** Reduce GHG emissions of agric *** Mitigation (increase Carbon seq.) * *** ** Farmer Resilience (Adaptation)

13 Climate Smart Agriculture Metrics Food Security (Prodn & Income) Prodn (t) Income ($) CO2 (t) CH4 (kg) NO2 (kg) Carbon stock (t) *** ** Diversity (spp.) Water use effic. (ha or t) Strength farmer institutions * ** ** Reduce GHG emissions of agric *** Mitigation (increase Carbon seq.) * *** ** Farmer Resilience (Adaptation) ** ** *** ** *

14 Photo: INBAR China

15 LANDSCAPE APPROACHES Land units as non-interacting aggregates Economic or social synergies not accommodated Social processes across land uses ignored or aggregated Ghazoul, ISPC Meeting, 2011)

16 REDD ACTORS and FINANCING MAIN ACTORS % Finance National Governments 90% Brokers/Investors 90% MRV, compliance 90% Implementers, Managers, NGOs 90% Stewards, communities 90% TOTAL 450%

17 ACTORS and FINANCING (cont.) MAIN ACTORS % Finance National Governments 25% Brokers/Investors 15% MRV, compliance 15% Implementers, Managers, NGOs 20% Stewards, communities 25% TOTAL 100%

18 ACTORS and FINANCING (cont.) MAIN ACTORS % Finance Source of Finance National Governments 25% ODA Brokers/Investors 15% Market MRV, compliance 15% Market Implementers, Managers, NGOs 20% Market Stewards, communities 25% ODA TOTAL 100% - 50:50 financed by market and ODA - MRV independent of Govt - Govt and communities less vulnerable - Govts need to function for market to trust them

19 - Resolution 30m x 30m - Based on 280 (56 x 5) ground truthed cocoa locations - Maximum likelihood classifier spectral landcover reflectance probability using ENVI

20 Project Vision for Change (V4C) First flowers after 5 months First pod at 9 months

21 Capacity building and mobilisation: State of our national partners HQ in Abidjan, August 2011

22 27th April- 3rd May Nairobi, KENYA 22

23 % of rainfall derived from short cycle terrestrial origins(recalculated from Basilovich et al.) 37% 58% 30% 68% Ellison D, Futter MN, Bishop K, 2011.On the forest cover water yield debate: from demand- to supplyside thinking. Global Change Biology, doi: /j x Approximately a third comes from local sources 42% 40% 41% 46% 22% 1) Mackenzie river basin, 2) Mississippi river basin, 3) Amazon river basin, 4) West Afri-ca, 5) Baltics, 6) Tibet, 7) Siberia, 8) GAME (GEWEX Asian Monsoon Experiment) and 9) Huaihe river basin.