The Indonesian-Norway cooperation on REDD+ (Slow, Halt & Reverse deforestation) World Bank, Washington DC, January 19, 2011 Fred Stolle People and

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1 The Indonesian-Norway cooperation on REDD+ (Slow, Halt & Reverse deforestation) World Bank, Washington DC, January 19, 2011 Fred Stolle People and Ecosystem Program WRI

2 Main Messages Future of Indonesian Forests on a tipping point. SH(REDD) accords Cancun good incentive, but game changer Norway-Indonesian cooperation of 1 billion USD is a real incentive Indonesia will need to deliver REDD and increase GDP To be successful NEED to go technical. Keep measuring!!

3 If you can t measure it you can t manage it If you can t measure it you can t regulate it If you can t measure it you can t trust it If you can t measure it you can t improve it

4 Structure 1. Overview of REDD+ 2. Overview of Indonesian forests 3. The way forward, REDD+ and Norway-Indonesian Cooperation

5 Reduced Emission from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in developing countries. formerly known as Avoided Deforestation, now known as Slow, Halt and Reverse Deforestation - REDD+

6 Why Forests are Important for Climate Figure 1: Global greenhouse gas emissions in 2000, 2010 by source Sector MtCO2 % Energy 24, Electricity & Heat 10, Manufacturing & Construction 4, Transportation 4, Other Fuel Combustion 3, Fugitive Emissions 1, Industrial Processes 1, Agriculture 5, Land-Use Change & Forestry 7, Waste 1, Total 40, %

7 Figure 2: Greenhouse gas emissions in Indonesia, by source Sector MtCO2 % Energy Electricity & Heat Manufacturing & Construction Transportation Other Fuel Combustion Fugitive Emissions [1] Industrial Processes [2] Agriculture Land-Use Change & Forestry 2, % Waste Total 3,072.8

8 Reduced Emission from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in developing countries. formerly known as Avoided Deforestation, now known as Slow, Halt and Reverse Deforestation - SHREDD+

9 Business as Usual 2003 levels Drop to 0

10 REDD+ text - Deforestation - Degradation - Forest Conservation - Sustainable Forest Management - Enhancement of Carbon Stocks

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12 Between , 27.2 million hectares tree loss in area of humid tropical forest

13 Between , 27.2 million hectares tree loss in area of humid tropical forest. Between , 35.1 million hectares tree loss in area of boreal biome

14 Quiz Which countries have largest Tree cover loss (Matt Hansen, PNAS, 2010) ( in thousands km 2 /yr) 1. Brazil Canada Russia USA Indonesia China 28

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16 Structure 1. Overview of REDD+ 2. Overview of Indonesian forests 3. The way forward, REDD+ and Norway-Indonesian Cooperation

17 The state of the forest in Indonesia

18 The Indonesian situation 2005 Export values in US$ Paper and Paperboard billion Wood-Based Panels billion Plywood Fibreboard + Sawnwood billion Industrial Roundwood billion Forest Products biliion Indonesia Area: 200 million ha (compared to USA 900 million ha) Population: 1.37 billion 230 Million 0.06 billion (compared to USA 300 million) Forest estate: 100 M ha Forest cover: estimate 70 M ha Revenue Oil palm collected export from : 20.9 forest million concessions ton, 7 around million 200 ha, million approx US$ 10 billion USD (2009) Deforestation rate: : 1.3 M ha /yr : 0.3 M ha/yr

19 Hectaress 140, , , , ,000 Annual Conversion of Forest in Indonesia Indonesia 80, ,000 60, ,000 40,000 20, to to to to to

20 UNFCCC Cancun Outcome of the work of the Ad Hoc Working Group on long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention Encourages all Parties to find effective ways to reduce the human pressure on forests that results in greenhouse gas emissions, including actions to address drivers of deforestation;

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22 Indonesian Forestry Carbon Alliance - IFCA Indonesia formed the Indonesian Forest Climate Alliance, IFCA in July Stakeholders working on forest and climate changes in Indonesia. The IFCA is coordinated by the Ministry of Forestry, consisted of governments, private sectors, civil societies, scientific institutions and international partners.

23 Status of Indonesia s Forests 21 million ha Maps and data are the result of preliminary analysis carried out by the Indonesian Ministry of Forestry in cooperation with: SDSU, UMD, NASA, USGS, ESF, WB and WRI.

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26 Legal Illegal? Illegal? Illegal? Delineated areas are concessions (most are clear-cut concessions)

27 Hectares Status of Indonesia s Forests Clear-cut of Forest in Indonesia 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , Years

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31 To summarize Many drivers of deforestation Affecting all forests Deforestation continuing. Less than era but increasing

32 Structure 1. Overview of REDD+ 2. Overview of Indonesian forests 3. The way forward, REDD+ and Norway-Indonesian Cooperation

33 New Era At G20 summit on Sept Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono said Indonesia would cut emissions by 26 percent by 2020 from "business as usual" (BAU) levels. By mix of stepping up investment in renewable energy, and curbing emissions from deforestation and changes in land use. With international support, Indonesia could cut emissions by as much as 41 percent.

34 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 km

35 Annual Deforestation in 2020 AVG k AVG k TREND 850 k TREND + Pop increase or GDP 1000 k

36 Recommendations Define clear Reference level (for different forest types?), Business as usual.

37 Is this a forest?

38 Is this a forest? A forest?

39 Is this Deforestation?

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41 Definitions Kyoto Protocol, choices Forest area: 0.05 to 1 ha Potential to reach a minimum height at maturity in situ of 2-5 m. Tree crown cover (or equivalent stocking level): 10 to 30 % Indonesia's choice: 0.25 ha, 5m, >30% Deforestation: Change in land use Degradation no definition

42 Recommendations Clear Definitions on forests, what counts as reduction (degradation included?). Accounting rules

43 Letter of Intent between the Government of the Kingdom of Norway and the Government of the Republic of Indonesia on "Cooperation on reducing greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation and forest degradation 1 billion USD $100 million paid up front and the rest as contributions-for-delivery.

44 New Era At G20 summit on Sept Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono said Indonesia would cut emissions by 26 percent by 2020 from "business as usual" (BAU) levels. By mix of stepping up investment in renewable energy, and curbing emissions from deforestation and changes in land use. With international support, Indonesia could cut emissions by as much as 41 percent.

45 LoI Ensure coordination with all other REDD. initiatives, including the UN-REDD, Programme, the Forest carbon Partnership Facility, the Forest Investment Program and other bi- and multilateral REDD+ initiatives taking place in Indonesia.

46 Who received Funds Ministry of Forestry Ministry of Environment Bappenas = National Development Planning Agency DNPI = National Council on Climate Change» Agus Pronomo UPK4 = Presidential Delivery Unit» Kuntoro Mangkusubroto» Speaks tomorrow at the Indonesian Embassy

47 Recommendations Coordination coordination, coordination. As well at the funder level as well in the Government of Indonesia?

48 Time line Three phases. first two phases in the scope of 3-4 years. The annual independent reviews will need to be considered before moving into the third phase, pay-for-performance (900 million USD)

49 PHASE 1: PREPARATION national REDD+ strategy addressing key drivers of forest and peatland establish a special agency reporting directly to the President. framework of an independent institution for a national monitoring, reporting and verification establishing a funding Instrument selecting a province-wide REDD+ pilot

50 PHASE 1: PREPARATION national REDD+ strategy addressing key drivers of forest and peatland establish a special agency reporting directly to the President. framework of an independent institution for a national monitoring, reporting and verification establishing a funding Instrument selecting a province-wide REDD+ pilot

51 Current several national strategies for low carbon development

52 PHASE 1: PREPARATION national REDD+ strategy addressing key drivers of forest and peatland establish a special agency reporting directly to the President. UPK4 framework of an independent institution for a national monitoring, reporting and verification establishing a funding Instrument selecting a province-wide REDD+ pilot

53 PHASE 1: PREPARATION national REDD+ strategy addressing key drivers of forest and peatland establish a special agency reporting directly to the President. framework of an independent institution for a national monitoring, reporting and verification establishing a funding Instrument selecting a province-wide REDD+ pilot

54 Cuyuunetl;y Currently working with LAPAN (Indonesian Space agency and Min of forestry

55 The U.S.-Indonesia Comprehensive Partnership Supporting Indonesia in establishing a Climate Change Center The United States is pleased to announce $7 million in support for the Center and $10 million for associated projects and partnerships,.

56 PHASE 1: PREPARATION national REDD+ strategy addressing key drivers of forest and peatland establish a special agency reporting directly to the President. framework of an independent institution for a national monitoring, reporting and verification establishing a funding Instrument UNDP selecting a province-wide REDD+ pilot

57 PHASE 1: PREPARATION national REDD+ strategy addressing key drivers of forest and peatland establish a special agency reporting directly to the President. framework of an independent institution for a national monitoring, reporting and verification establishing a funding Instrument selecting a province-wide REDD+ pilot

58 Status of Indonesia s Forests Maps and data are the result of preliminary analysis carried out by the Indonesian Ministry of Forestry in cooperation with: SDSU, UMD, NASA, USGS, ESF, WB and WRI.

59 Recommendations Clear what low emission strategy to follow? Understand technical detail Coordination climate center. MRV techniques, Independent MRV center Civil society MRV?

60 PHASE 2: TRANSFORMATION January 2011 end of capability building, policy development and implementation as well as legal reform and law enforcement; one or more full scale 26% or province 41% level REDD+ pilots funding instrument fully operational no later than January by December 2013, a country wide MRV system run by the independent MRV institution

61 PHASE 2: TRANSFORMATION January 2011 end of capability building, policy development and implementation as well as legal reform and law enforcement; one or more full scale province level REDD+ pilots funding instrument fully operational no later than January by December 2013, a country wide MRV system run by the independent MRV institution

62 GFI Framework GOVERNANCE COMPONENTS Actors government institutions, international institutions, civil society, private sector Rules policy & law content, policy & law processes Practice implementation, administration, monitoring, enforcement PRINCIPLES OF GOOD GOVERNANCE Transparency Participation Accountability Coordination Capacity land tenure land use planning forest management revenue distribution and economic incentives Country Profile (key facts and quantitative information relating to forest sector outcomes and outputs)

63 PRINCIPLES OF GOOD GOVERNANCE Actors government institutions, international institutions, civil society, private sector GOVERNANCE COMPONENTS Rules Policy y& law content, policy law process Practice implementation, administration, monitoring, enforcement Customary Institutions Law & Policy content Implementation Transparency Inclusiveness Accountability Coordination Capacity 1. Transparency of customary administration (T) 2. Dispute resolution of customary administration (A) 3. Clarity on identity of customary authority (A) 4. Ability to interact with external groups (Ca) Land Tenure Administration Agencies 5. Capacity for implementation, of land tenure laws&policies (Ca) 6. Quality Horizontal coordination (Co) 7. Quality Vertical coordination (Co) 8. Quality internal performance monitoring (A, T) 9. Quality of independent performance monitoring (A, T) 10. Responsiveness to the need for reform (A) 11. Quality of rules to promote staff independence (Ca, A) Conflict Resolution Systems 12. Expertise to handle land tenure related cases (Ca) Civil Society 13.Capacity to work on land tenure issues (Ca) 14. Legal recognition of customary tenure systems (A) 15. Legal recognition of multiple types of land rights (A) 16. Legal procedures to extinguish land rights (A) 17. Clarity of land tenure laws/policies (Co) 18. Consistency between land tenure laws/policies between sectors (Co) 19. Clarity of mandate for customary authorities (A, Co) 20. Clarity of mandate for government agencies (A, Co) 21. Quality of land administration (Co) 22. Legal recognition of alternative conflict resolution systems (Co) Law & Policy Process 23. Accessibility of information on the basis and goals of reform (T) 24. Quality of media coverage on policy/law reform (T) 25. Clarity of process for public participation in policymaking (A, T) 26. Effectiveness of public participation in policymaking (A, I) 27. Quality of legislative debate on land laws (Ca) 28. Ability of public to comment on draft laws (A, T) 29. Transparency and predictability of land tenure administration (A, T) 30. Accessibility of administrative services (I) 31. Availability of information about land tenure (T) 32. Accessibility of information on land tenure (T) 33. Transparency of the allocation and disposal of public lands (A, T) Enforcement & Compliance 34. Accessibility of conflict resolution mechanisms (I, T) 35. Transparency of rules/processes on land cases (T) 36. Quality of efforts to enhance public awareness of laws & policies (Ca, T) 37. Quality of participation in community mapping (I) Monitoring 38. Quality of monitoring of social impacts of land tenure laws & policies (A) 39. Quality of monitoring of the effectiveness of land tenure laws & policies (A)

64 PHASE 2: TRANSFORMATION January 2011 end of capability building, policy development and implementation as well as legal reform and law enforcement; one or more full scale province level REDD+ pilots funding instrument fully operational no later than January by December 2013, a country wide MRV system run by the independent MRV institution

65 Measure, Report, Verify Min of forestry land cover maps 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2003, 2006 Matt Hansen (Min of forestry, WRI and South Dakota State University) since 2005 on Monitoring system (FOMAS/FRIS) AusAid took over with SDSU since 2009 on MRV system

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67 Probability 50 60% 60 70% Cleared by: 1/ % 80 90% > 90% Forest in 2000 Cleared

68 Probability 50 60% 60 70% Cleared by: 1/ % 80 90% > 90% Forest in 2000 Cleared

69 Probability 50 60% 60 70% Cleared by: Sep/2010 END 70 80% 80 90% > 90% Forest in 2000 Cleared

70 Recommendations What kind of MRV (preventive, accounting)? Do you need Carbon?

71 PHASE 2: PREPARATION two year suspension on all new concessions for conversion of peat and natural forest start Jan establish a degraded lands database, enforce existing laws against illegal logging, set up a special unit to tackle the problem. take appropriate measures to address land tenure conflicts and compensation claims

72 PHASE 2: Transformation two year suspension on all new concessions for conversion of peat and natural forest start Jan 1, establish a degraded lands database, enforce existing laws against illegal logging, set up a special unit to tackle the problem. take appropriate measures to address land tenure conflicts and compensation claims

73 Suspension 1 Jan, did not work. There are at least two drafts: Forestry Ministry REDD Task Force. MoF: only applicable to primary forests (3 percent of all forests) and peatland UPK4: more specific, types of permits that should no longer be issued, including those for logging, land lease, plantations and mining. It also includes secondary forests.

74 PHASE 2: Transformation two year suspension on all new concessions for conversion of peat and natural forest start Jan establish a degraded lands database, enforce existing laws against illegal logging, set up a special unit to tackle the problem. take appropriate measures to address land tenure conflicts and compensation claims

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76 6 million hectares of degraded land available for oil palm expansion according to a senior official of the Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board). 7 million hectares of unused/abandoned degraded according to Ministry of Forestry, February million hectares of alang alang grassland 7-14 million hectares of degraded, abandoned lands that may be used for agricultural development according to. 12 million hectares of idle land the National Land Agency ( 31 million hectares of unused land considered suitable and available for agriculture (Agricultural Research & Development Body 2007, 40 million hectares of degraded forests within the forest estate according to the Forestry ministry). 55 million hectares of land designated as non-forest, Ministry of Forestry 2008, cited in Indonesia s draft REDD+ policy).

77 Degraded land concept 1. Exactly where are these degraded lands located? 2. What should a particular tract of degraded land be restored into, agriculture or forests? 3. How should one go about restoring that land

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80 Tech analysis

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82 Survey map in Sintang district

83 Degraded land concept 1. Exactly where are these degraded lands located? 2. What should a particular tract of degraded land be restored into, agriculture or forests? 3. How should one go about restoring that land

84 Degraded land concept 1. Exactly where are these degraded lands located? 2- phases 1. Desktop 2. Field

85 Example of a 360 survey of a degraded land site N W E S

86 Recommendations Go into technical details on what Degraded land is? Degraded for logging might be just right for local uses Don t forget the desktop result is a beginning, not the end?

87 PHASE 2: Transformation two year suspension on all new concessions for conversion of peat and natural forest start Jan establish a degraded lands database, enforce existing laws against illegal logging, set up a special unit to tackle the problem. take appropriate measures to address land tenure conflicts and compensation claims

88 PHASE 3: CONTRIBUTIONS FOR VERIFIED EMISSION REDUCTION 2014 Indonesia receives annual contributions Norway channel financial contributions into the financial instrument

89 Conclusion Deforestation /REDD+/ LoI Indonesia s forest on a tipping point Forest/ REDD+ is taken serious on both sides Game changer Next phase crucial, need technical people and analysis

90 Don t ask what you can do for Indonesia. But ask what Indonesia can do for the world (reduction in GHG, healthy forest, and produce sustainable timber and oil palm)