BIOMASS TO ENERGY UTILIZATION - SUSTAINABILITY METRICS

Transcription

1 BIOMASS TO ENERGY UTILIZATION - SUSTAINABILITY METRICS Robert Radics (Graduate Research Assistant) Sudipta Dasmohapatra (Associate Professor) Steve Kelley (Professor) Department of Forest Biomaterials North Carolina State University 2016 SWST International Conference Curitiba, BR (March 6-10) Collaboration- E. Parish and V. Dale, ORNL; Dept. of Forestry and Environmental Resources (NCSU)

2 GOAL: Examine models and tools to assess social, environment and economic sustainability for biomass to energy systems CASE STUDY: MULTI-ATTRIBUTE DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM (MADSS) (Used when quantitative data is incomplete)

3 PROCESS OF USING A QUALITATIVE EVALUATION TOOL (MADSS) 1. Map the process to optimize 2. Choose decision supporting tool (MADSS) 3. Define indicators (expert panel) 4. Define decision tree structure 5. Establish utility tables (decision rules) 6. Evaluate individual indicators (expert panel) 7. Input data into supporting software (DEXi) 8. Run analysis 9. Check the results 10. Interpretation 23

4 PROCESS MAP Nursery Thinning Feedstock production Pelletization Transportation Product end use Reforestation Harvesting Site preparation Compare plantation pine, plantation poplar, and natural hardwood feedstock for pellet production from social, economic, and environmental perspective. 24

5 SUSTAINABILITY CATEGORIES AND INDICATORS 12 INDICATORS, 28 CATEGORIES

6 METHODS 1. QUALITATIVE FOCUS GROUPS AND EXPERT INTERVIEWS WITH SELECT ACADEMIA, INDUSTRY, GOVERNMENT, NON-PROFITS ORGANIZATION REPRESENTATIVES (>30=N) 2. 9-point rating scale from low performance (1) to medium (5) to high performance (9) 3. Delphi technique used to bring their different ratings to a common decision 4. 9-point scale rolled into a 3-category scale (high, medium, low) and compared (high vs. low variability)

7 Environmental sustainability Economic sustainability Social sustainability SUSTAINABILITY INDICATORS AND CATEGORIES Attributes Sub-category Indicator Employment; number of local people hired Social well- being Household income; change in dollars/year Work days lost due to injury Energy security Energy security premium; decrease in risk of energy price changes, macroeconomic losses Fuel price volatility; standard deviation of monthly fuel price changes over the year Depletion of non-renewable energy resources; change Resource conservation Fossil energy return on investment (fossil EROI); ratio of fossil energy input of useful energy output Social acceptability Public opinion on harvest; percent of favorable opinion Public acceptance of using source of woody biomass; opinion of harvesting for bioenergy External trade Terms of trade; price of export/price of import Trade volume; change Return on investment (ROI) Profitability Net present value (NPV) Variability in annual profit Productivity Productivity, yield; amount of biomass produced Soil quality Total organic carbon (TOC); change Bulk density; change, measure of soil compaction Chemical inputs; overall change due to chemical use Water quality and quantity Suspended sediment concentration in streams; change Consumptive water use Water flow; water availability for other purposes Greenhouse gases Biodiversity Air quality CO2 equivalent emissions Presence of taxa of special concern Habitat area of taxa of special concern; change Risk of catastrophe; change in probability of catastrophe Tropospheric ozone emission Carbon monoxide emission Total particulate matter less than 2.5 µm diameter (PM2.5 ) 26

8 MADSS SOFTWARE (DEXI) Free (non-commercial use) Graphical interface Many attributes handled (>15) Include multi-point scale Based on experts opinions, group decision (delphi technique)

9 SUSTAINABILITY INDICATORS Sustainability score Sub-Category Indicator Plantation Pine Plantation Poplar Employment Social well- being Household income Work days lost due to injury Energy security Energy security premium Fuel price volatility Resource conservation Social acceptability External trade Profitability Depletion of non-renewable energy resources Fossil energy return on investment (fossil EROI) Public opinion Market acceptance Terms of trade Trade volume Return on investment (ROI) Net present value (NPV)c,d Variability Productivity Aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP)/yield Soil quality Water quality and quantity Total organic carbon (TOC) Bulk density Chemical inputs Suspended sediment concentration in streams (and export) Water flow Consumptive water use (incorporates base flow) Greenhouse gases CO2 equivalent emissions (CO2 and Biodiversity Air quality Presence of taxa of special concern Habitat area of taxa of special concern Risk of catastrophe Tropospheric ozone Carbon monoxide Total particulate matter less than 2.5 µm diameter (PM2.5 )

10 SUSTAINABILITY INDICATORS Sub-category Sustainability score Plantation Pine Plantation Poplar Natural Hardwood Social well- being Attribute Sustainability score Plantation Pine Plantation Poplar Natural Hardwood Social Economic Environmental Energy security Total sustainability score Resource conservation Social acceptability External trade Profitability Productivity Soil quality Water quality and quantity Greenhouse gases Biodiversity Air quality

11 DEXI SOFTWARE MADSS INTERFACE Table 2 a). Decision tree in DEXi Table 2 b). Utility table of Biodiversity

12 SUSTAINABILITY ATTRIBUTES 3-category scale 9-point scale Plantation Pine Plantation Poplar Plantation Pine Plantation Poplar 3 Social Social Environmental Economic Environmental Economic 30

13 ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY 3-category scale 9-point scale Plantation Pine Plantation Poplar Plantation Pine Plantation Poplar Air quality Soil quality Hydrology Air quality Soil quality Hydrology Biodiversity Greenhouse gases Biodiversity Greenhouse gases 31

14 SOCIAL SUSTAINABILITY 3-category scale Plantation Pine Plantation Poplar 9-point scale Plantation Pine Plantation Poplar Social acceptability Social wellbeing Energy security Social acceptability Social wellbeing Energy security Resource conservation Resource conservation 32

15 ECONOMIC SUSTAINABILITY 3-category scale 9-point scale Plantation Pine Plantation Poplar Plantation Pine Plantation Poplar External trade External trade Productivity Profitability Productivity Profitability 33

16 CONCLUSION Using a qualitative evaluation method helps in evaluating not only the economic and environmental attributes but also social impacts (do not need quantitative data) Based on expert opinions so results will likely vary given the stakeholders on focus (n should be large) Indicators and categories need to be defined based on problem and context Important to compare with the quantitative tools

17 ACKNOWLEGEMENT The IBSS Partnership is supported by Agriculture and Food Research Initiative Competitive Grant no from the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture