Fire, Carbon and Longleaf Pine Ecosystems. Photo credits: (Top) Mark Godfrey; (Bottom) Scott Warren; Mark Godfrey

Transcription

1 Fire, Carbon and Longleaf Pine Ecosystems David Ganz, PhD Photo credits: (Top) Mark Godfrey; (Bottom) Scott Warren; Mark Godfrey

2 The Nature Conservancy s White Paper Provide linkage between forest restoration and carbon. Document state of the science and tools for restoration and carbon benefits Provide policy guidance The Nature Conservancy s Approach to Forest Restoration & Carbon: Scientific Foundations for Linking Forest Resilience Projects to Carbon Policy By David J. Ganz and Elizabeth W. Bloomfield July 2009

3 Why Longleaf Pine and Carbon? Widely acknowledged Longleaf Pine ecosystems should be a centerpiece of land-based carbon sequestration efforts in the Southeast. Why? well suited for long-term tolerant t of and even storage of carbon, dependent on frequent more resistant to beetle surface fire, and infestations, ti better able to thrives from dry to wet withstand storms. conditions,

4 Resilience Defined as the capacity of an ecosystem to tolerate disturbance without collapsing into a qualitatively different state that is controlled by a different set of processes

5 Why Bother? Natural landscapes will adapt in some way but key is to facilitate adaptation that meets human needs (ecosystem services) provided by our landscapes. An adaptation strategy is important not only for specific landowner objectives (e.g., revenue, recreation, wildlife conservation), but also critical if our landscapes are to play a GHG mitigating role.

6 Differing C Management Strategies Market: Volunteer (MV) Regulated (MR) MR MR MV MV LPB MV LPB MR LPB IPJLPR IPGLPR MV MR IPJ LPR IPG IPJ IPJ Implementation: Project (IPJ) Programmatic (IPG) LPB IPG LPR IPG Land Tenure: Public (LPB) Private (LPR)

7 Why Fire and Carbon? Concept of Carbon-smart burning. Pre and Post life- cycle effects of Rx and mechanical treatments compared with wildfire emissions and dfire suppression.

8 Why Fire and Carbon? How can natural resource management address wildland fire for mitigating the impacts of climate change? Wildland Fire Fire Hazards Fire Risks Forest Carbon C Sequestration GhG Emissions Forest Health Natural Resource Management Rx Effects Ecosystem Service Valuation Management Objectives Public Sector Private Sector NGO Other.. Integrated Scientific Knowledge Academia Government Research Units Private Sector NGO Others Develop Realistic Scenarios Environmental limitations Social limitations Economic limitations Provide Potential Solutions Actionable Transparent Adaptive to new realities

9 Why work on fire? Wildland Fire Occurrence Climate Changing Fire Fire Changing Climate Avg100,000 fires/year Climate change could effect fire regimes before changes in Annual acreage burned vegetation occurred 3,300,000 acres (1,000,000 6,500, acres) In fire prone ecosystems, fire may be the main vehicle of Nationally about 50% or fires vegetation change. Could occur from people, 50% from lightning over a few decades with higher Approximately 52% of annual area burned by lightning fires frequency fires Extension of fire season, especially in areas with snow pack (2-3 weeks) Wildland fire is major natural source of GhG emissions. Carbon emissions reduction credits could be given to fuels treatment projects Carbon sequestration projects could be discounted, due to risk of loss to fire

10 The Conservancy and Fire: 30+ Years Ecological fire management Average R x burning: 100K ac/yr on TNC lands, 500K ac/yr on partner lands Many ecosystems and social settings, including longleaf pine. 380 trained staff, National Wildfire Coordinating Group standards Collaborative training

11 TNC Florida, Longleaf Pine and Fire In 2009, 103,000 acres in Florida alone % of those acres in some longleaf pine ecosystem. - Includes Disney Wilderness Preserve of pine and scrub flatwoods.

12 Why Carbon-Smart Burning in LLP? Strategic way to restore altered fire regimes at a significant scale. Provides fire managers with more tools and more opportunities to restore good fire to landscapes. There appears to be public support for fire managers using fire to achieve resource benefit. GHGs should not change that!

13 Goals of Carbon Smart Burning Reduce the social and ecological costs of too much, too little or the wrong kind of fire. Narrow gaps in effective conservation of major habitat types. Implement smart burning to benefit natural resources, thin overgrown forests, maintain the stock and flow of ecosystem services and prevent extreme wildfires.

14 Untreated t Thinned and Controlled Burn

15 What can we control? Three groups of derived ed products that prescribed fire managers may manipulate in order to gain advantages in management of carbon stocks and greenhouse gas emissions: 1) Particulates 2) Gases, and 3) Carbon storage through residual stand, coarse woody debris and/or black carbon

16 Factors we may be able to manipulate in LLP ecosystems - Particulates t Volume of particles emitted Sizes of particles and proportions of size classes How high they float in the atmosphere plume size and directionality When they are in the air (season, time of day) Where they land transport distance

17 Factors we may be able to manipulate in LLP Ecosystems - Gases Volume of gases emitted Relative proportion of gases emitted: CO, CO 2, CH 4, NO x and ozone When they enter the atmosphere (time of day, season) Where they are emitted Rate of gas emission based upon combustion and residence time.

18 Factors we may be able to manipulate in LLP Ecosystems Carbon Storage Where in the ecosystem stem carbon is stored and released above and below ground Height to live crown ratio When carbon is stored and released Rates of release (combustion vs. microbial decay, biochar vs. consumption) Rates of sequestration Length of storage

19 Black Carbon Life Cycle Vegetation Fires Formation Process Residues Soot Transport Remaining on site Eolian Transport Fluvial Transport Smoke particulates Final Deposition Soils Ice and Open Ocean Sediment Lake and river sediment, coastal deposition

20 Convergence with Climate Change Trends Climate - Conditions suitable for wildfires. FIRE GHG Resources - Climate gives rise to suitable biomass. RENEWABLE ENERGY GHG Benefits

21 Some key questions to ponder What are the carbon benefits of promoting woody biomass utilization in the South? Is avoided wildfire emissions going to change the economics for forest restoration? What are the resource assessments and monitoring systems needed to make sure that promoting biomass utilization does not lead to overexploitation of forest resources?

22 The Life Cycle Approach 1. Model LIFE CYCLE environmental values of using forest biomass for energy and heat production 2. Test effects of different transportation modes, total emissions and other environmental factors. 3. Develop a decision-support framework to test biomass manufacturing locations and other assumptions and scenarios.

23 The Forest Health Conundrum Forest health and resilience are measured by a complex array of factors Major disagreements over what to measure and what matters Management objectives differ by landowner and place Data and science improving, but Ecosystem services are poorly quantified, regulated, & monetized.

24 Forest Landscape Archetypes Lassen County, CA (2 Million Acres) Forest Biomass Small Trees Branches Brush Litter Forest B2E LCA Model Remediation? YES Forest Remediation Prescriptions Mechanical & Hand dthinningi Forest Biomass Utilization Leave in Place Chip & Disperse Collect and Burn Chip & Remove Forest Fire Forest Fire Area, Material Consumed NO Area, Material Consumed Fuel & Energy Generation Impacts Air Resources Water Resources Forest Ecosystems Climate Change Human Welfare Infrastructure/Use Compare LCA Outputs Environment Economics Energy Public Benefits Impacts Air Resources Impacts Water Resources Forest Ecosystems Climate Change Human Welfare Infrastructure/Use

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26 Some LCA findings from California This Test Scenario -- modeling thinning, transporting, and converting biomass into electrical power -- yielded the following results when compared to the no-treatment. $1.58 billion in power revenues, assuming an 8.3-cent per kilowatt-hour price on the wholesale power market. Clear life cycle climate change benefits, including a 65 percent net reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from 17 million tons of CO2 equivalents to 5.9 million tons of CO2 equivalents 22 percent reduction in the number of acres burned by wildfires. Similar reductions in intensity (mixed severity).

27 Knowledge Management

28 Knowledge Management

29 Knowledge Management: on-the- ground projects with tangible results TNC Belize; first-ever ecological prescribed fire at this reserve TNC Honduras; threat assessment with stakeholders and land managers

30 Building on TNC strengths Linking P j t Partners Projects, P t and d Policies P li i Southern Mexico Peru

31 U.S. Fire Learning Network 8 Regional Networks, ~100 projects

32 So Why Not?

33 Any Questions? David Ganz, Ph.D Visiting Scholar, UC Berkeley TNC s Climate Change Team Dganz@TNC.org (510)