Adaptation Options for Managing Ecosystems; Coping with Climate Change Forest Service Research and Development Support for Management of Wildlands

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1 Adaptation Options for Managing Ecosystems; Coping with Climate Change Forest Service Research and Development Support for Management of Wildlands Peter A. Stine, Ph.D. Sierra Nevada Research Center Pacific Southwest Research Station U.S. Forest Service

2 Pacific Southwest Research Station Sierra Nevada Research Center Forest Function and Health Conservation of Biological Diversity Climate and Landscape Change Water and Watershed Processes Institutional and Policy Processes

3 Five Major Points Establishing that climate change is happening Response of the Federal Agencies to climate change Ramifications for western U.S. forests Options for management response Research on the role of forests in mitigating climate change

4 Natural Climate Cycles

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7 IPCC Climate Change 2007 Synthesis Report

8 Five Major Points Establishing that climate change is happening Response of the Federal Agencies to climate change Ramifications for western U.S. forests Options for management response Research on the role of forests in mitigating climate change

9 Federal Interagency Climate Change Science Program Goal 1: Improve knowledge of climate variability and change Goal 2: Improve quantification of climate mechanisms Goal 3: Reduce uncertainties about future climate change Goal 4: Understand sensitivity & adaptability of natural & managed ecosystems and human systems to climate change Goal 5: Explore, conduct, & support capacity to manage risks & opportunities Significant Forest Service Involvement

10 Forest Service Emphasis on Climate Change Science Program Goal 4: Understand sensitivity & adaptability of natural & managed ecosystems and human systems to climate change Focus 1: Sensitivity of ecosystems to climate change & variability Focus 2: Scientific inputs to adaptation options; agencies & resource managers Focus 3: Ecosystem change, interactions with human land-use, long term Goal 5: Explore, conduct, & support capacity to manage risks & opportunities Focus 1: Synthesis and assessment reports Focus 2: Adaptive management, new partnerships for research & decision-support Focus 3: Policy-support through environmental & socioeconomic evaluations

11 U.S. Climate Change Science Program gov/ Synthesis and Assessment products 4.3 The effects of climate change on agriculture, land resources, water resources, and biodiversity in the United States 4.4 Preliminary review of adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and resources.

12 Treatment of Uncertainty Where uncertainty is assessed qualitatively, it is characterized by providing a relative sense of the amount and quality of evidence and the degree of agreement Where uncertainty is assessed more quantitatively using expert judgment of the correctness of underlying data, models or analyses, then the following scale of confidence levels is used very high confidence at least 9 out of 10; high confidence about 8 out of 10; medium confidence about 5 out of 10; low confidence about 2 out of 10; and very low confidence less than 1 out of 10.

13 Five Major Points Establishing that climate change is happening Response of the Federal Agencies to climate change Ramifications for western U.S. forests Options for management response Research on the role of forests in mitigating climate change

14 Linear trends in November- March (a), (b) temperature and (c), (d) precip. For temperature, negative trends are indicated by blue circles, and positive trends are indicated by red circles; values are given in degrees Celsius per century. For precipitation, trends are given as a percentage of the starting value (1930 or 1950), and positive trends are shown as blue circles. Source: Mote et al

15 IPCC Climate Change 2007 Synthesis Report

16 Summers are getting longer and drier: Snow fall is declining (relative to rain): Knowles et al., J. Climate, 2006 Snowpack water content is declining: Mote et al., BAMS, 2005 Spring streamflow is arriving earlier: Nate Stephenson USGS Stewart et al., J. Climate, 2004

17 Anthony Westerling U.C. Merced

18 Area burned is increasing, fire season is lengthening, and fires are harder to control... Photo: N. Stephenson From Nate Stephenson USGS Burned area (millions of acres) Acres Burned to 2002 (From Arno 1996, updated by Caprio 2002) Western states (bars) and California (line) Year

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21 Changes in 100 years UC Berkeley MVZ Grinnell Resurvey Project Yosemite Valley Walker Lake

22 MVZ Grinnell Yosemite Resurvey Project Moritz et al

23 Five Major Points Establishing that climate change is happening Response of the Federal Agencies to climate change Ramifications for western U.S. forests Options for management response Research on the role of forests in mitigating climate change

24 Adaptation to Climate Change; Options Resistance (forestall impacts and protect highly valued resources) Resilience (improve the capacity of ecosystems to return to desired condition after disturbance) Response (facilitate transition of ecosystems from current to new conditions) Realign (adapt to future conditions) Millar et al. 2007

25 Create Resistance to Change Giant Sequoia groves were found at different elevations and at different sites under past climates. Current locations of at least some groves may not be sustainable without some targeted management intervention. The Devil s Hole Pupfish (Cyprinodon diabolis) is an endangered species of fish native to Devil's Hole, a geothermal, aquiferfed pool within a limestone cavern in the Amargosa Desert of Nevada east of Death Valley. Changes in groundwater levels threaten this lone native population.

26 Promote Resilience to Change Resilient forests are those that not only accommodate gradual changes related to climate but tend to return toward a prior condition after disturbance either naturally or with management assistance.

27 Silvicultural Strategies for a Maintaining a Resilient Forest Thin to avoid overstocked stands susceptible to increased mortality from drought, insects, disease and wildfire. Underplant thinned stands with adapted species or genotypes when advanced regeneration is unacceptable for future conditions. Provide structural features at stand and landscape scales to meet the varying habitat requirements of plants and animals. Promote development of mixed-species or multiprovenance forests.

28 Enable Forests to Respond to Change Intentionally accommodate change rather than resist it, enable or facilitate forest ecosystems to respond adaptively as environmental changes accrue. Treatments mimic, assist, or enable ongoing natural adaptive processes such as species dispersal and migration, population mortality and colonization, changes in species dominances and community composition, and changing disturbance regimes. Encourage gradual adaptation and transition to inevitable change. Monterey pine (Pinus radiata), endangered throughout its small native range, has naturalized along the north coast of California distant from its present native distribution. Much of this area was paleohistorical range for the pine, extant during climate conditions that have been interpreted to be similar to expected futures in California.

29 Experiment Creatively & Learn From Experiments 1. Use Redundancy Spread-the-risk and bet-hedging approaches 2. Relax Genetic Management Guidelines Connie Millar

30 Some other options for responding to change 1. Assist transitions, population adjustments, range shifts, and other natural adaptations 2. Increase redundancy and buffers. 3. Expand genetic diversity guidelines. 4. Manage for asynchrony and use establishment phase to reset succession. 5. Promote connected landscapes. 6. Realign significantly disrupted conditions. 7. Anticipate surprises and threshold effects. 8. Experiment with refugia.

31 Realign Conditions to Current Dynamics Example: For systems far out of the range of natural variability this may be a useful restoration approach Response of Trees in Northern Minnesota Decrease in abundance: jack pine, red pine, black spruce, white spruce, paper birch, aspen, balsam poplar, tamarack Increase in abundance: sugar maple, red maple, white pine, basswood, red oak, bur oak, green ash, yellow birch, red maple Migrate in: Hemlock, white oak, black cherry Lee Frelich University of Minnesota

32 Species ranges will shift? Credit: Tony Caprio?

33 Mitigation of Climate Change; Options in forested environments Reduce greenhouse gases Sequester carbon Forest management strategies Reduce emissions Wildfire Extensive tree mortality Go green Millar et al. 2007

34 Reduce Greenhouse Gases & Reduce Ecological Footprint Forestry Sector - Sequester Carbon -Reduce Emissions Energy Sector Conservation & Alternative Energy *Mitigation strategy* Barnett

35 A Toolkit for Adapting to Climate Change on Western U.S. Forests 1) Develop materials in digestible formats 2) Conduct rapid audit tool on three National Forests 3) Refine these case studies through further evaluation 4) Develop/extend the CCRC website

36 Five Major Points Establishing that climate change is happening Response of the Federal Agencies to climate change Ramifications for western U.S. forests Options for management response Research on the role of forests in mitigating climate change

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38 Research on the Teakettle Experimental Forest 1. Catastrophic wildfire results in large carbon emissions. 2. Failing to reduce forest fuels resulted in increased (70%) carbon emissions from tree based carbon stocks under modeled high-intensity wildfire conditions. 3. Consolidating carbon in fewer, larger trees comprised of fire-resistant species resulted in the best forest structure for protecting tree-based carbon from catastrophic wildfire release. North and Hurteau In Press

39 Management of Forest Carbon Objectives Sequester carbon Stabilize over the long term Reduce emission from intense wildfires

40 There is unavoidably some short term emissions. North and Hurteau in press

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42 Reconstruction of 1865 conditions vs. current conditions (control) Note the amount of biomass in the larger size classes

43 North et al. 2007

44 Stand Density Under active fire regime 1865 reconstruction Under fire suppression Current conditions

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46 The Adaptive Management Framework after the Sierra Nevada Adaptive Management Program Plan projects with existing management direction Change management direction as needed Analyze & model expected environmental effects Propose adjustments to management Adaptive Management Implement projects as treatments Analyze & recalibrate models Observe & measure

47 Climate Change Resource Center, U.S. Forest Service